What Obama Needs to Win Re-election

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Jackson, Aug 23, 2012.

  1. Jackson
    Offline

    Jackson Gold Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2010
    Messages:
    19,665
    Thanks Received:
    4,881
    Trophy Points:
    290
    Location:
    Nashville
    Ratings:
    +12,710
    What Obama Needs to Win Re-election

    When comparing the 2008 race, I looked up the demographics to determine what Obama needs to meet the standards he set for himself in 2008. We can decide if he is making the strides this time around and has a good shot of four more years.


    1. In 2008, 65.3% of the black voters came out voted. That was an increase of 5% points from 2004. Is his African American base as energized this year with the high unemployment as it was in 2008?

    2. The stunning black vote was driven in part by young voters which is in trouble in all demographics this year. The white young vote garnered 54% of his votes.

    3. 96% of the black vote went for Obama, 43% of whites voted for him. With claims of a divisive administration , will Obama be able to receive the 43 % of the white vote this year?

    4. 47% of white college graduates voted for Obama, 40% working class whites. The promises of jobs were a drawing card, but did he deliver for these voters? November will tell us.

    5. Half of suburban voters voted for Obama. These are homeowners who have seen the value of their homes go down and some have lost their homes. Does that mean he has lost their vote?

    6. 60% of moderates, 20% of conservatives voted for Obama in 2008 His policies must appear more radical now to some of those voters, perhaps even socialistic.

    7. 51% of non union people voted for Obama in the last election, have they changed their minds after seeing the lip service to Wisconsin’s problems and waivers to unions in Obamacare?

    It will be interesting to see if the president can keep his numbers as such a high level as they were in 2008, but he does have wiggle room. He won the last election 53% To McCain’s 47. But I don’t know how far he can wiggle.

    Dissecting the 2008 Electorate: Most Diverse in U.S. History - Pew Research Center

    Demographics of How Groups Voted in the 2008 Presidential Election
    Exit polls: How Obama won - David Paul Kuhn - POLITICO.com
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  2. Sallow
    Offline

    Sallow The Big Bad Wolf. Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2010
    Messages:
    56,535
    Thanks Received:
    6,132
    Trophy Points:
    1,840
    Location:
    New York City
    Ratings:
    +7,394
    The elephant in the room is that Romney screwed the pooch with Women and Hispanics. Obama's numbers are actually much better with those 2 groups then when he ran against McCain. That's part of the reason that many states with a Republican legislator are targetting Black and Hispanic districts for voter suppression.
     
  3. Katzndogz
    Offline

    Katzndogz Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2011
    Messages:
    65,659
    Thanks Received:
    7,418
    Trophy Points:
    1,830
    Ratings:
    +8,338
    The trend is against obama. He has been steadily losing support and needs to portray himself as ahead only by the use of using polling in smaller and smaller groups. He used to be ahead among women, now he's ahead with single women. He tries to pull it together by saying he's leading by double digits among women.

    The best that democrats can legitimately say is that obama is doing well despite disastrous policies that would have anyone else way behind.
     
  4. beretta304
    Offline

    beretta304 BANNED

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2012
    Messages:
    8,664
    Thanks Received:
    73
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    A Saner Place
    Ratings:
    +73
    Slightly off topic:

    Many say Obama has the edge in the debates. All Romney has to do is give the facts, remain calm and let Obama take his cheap shots. Voters already are moving away from Obiedopey and not even the debtaes will help him. It's Romney's to lose.

    Some here keep citing polls. People haven't even come back from vacations nor have they paid much attnetion and still Obama can put Romney away. If Romney is so bad and Obama is the Messiah he should be blowing Romney's doors off being the incumbent.

    Obama=Toast.
     
  5. Katzndogz
    Offline

    Katzndogz Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2011
    Messages:
    65,659
    Thanks Received:
    7,418
    Trophy Points:
    1,830
    Ratings:
    +8,338
    Romney will cream obama in the debates. For one thing, people will be paying more attention to what obama says this time. Answers like he doesn't care if revenue to the government is reduced by higher taxes if it means more fairness in take home pay won't go unnoticed. Much of what obama said was overlooked or dismissed in the zeal to elect the first black president. That isn't going to happen this time. The bloom is off that little rose.

    Why will Romney cream obama in the debates? Because obama doesn't know that he will be receiving more scrutiny this time around. He thinks nothing has changed. He will continue to make stupid statements imagining that every word that falls from his mouth is a pearl. He isn't running for office in this election, he's running for office in the last election. The one he won, he can't imagine that this is a new fight, he's going to do the same things he did last time, when all his missteps were overlooked or ignored.

    obama's political story was already told in Whatever Happened To Baby Jane!
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  6. antagon
    Offline

    antagon The Man

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2009
    Messages:
    3,572
    Thanks Received:
    285
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings:
    +286
    It is really difficult to lose an election as an incumbent US pres. I don't think people associate Obama with their jobs and lives like people on the distant right (or left). That center will probably endorse another 4.
     
  7. martybegan
    Offline

    martybegan Gold Member

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2010
    Messages:
    29,495
    Thanks Received:
    4,017
    Trophy Points:
    290
    Ratings:
    +11,046
    The center is already waffling, if it wasnt Obama would have had over 270 EV's already locked up with +5% in the close ones, and only less than 5% in the gravy states over the 271 target.

    It is really difficult but not impossible. One thing different than 1992 is that there is no Ross Perot to mish mash the numbers.
     
  8. IHBF
    Offline

    IHBF BANNED

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2010
    Messages:
    883
    Thanks Received:
    154
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ratings:
    +154
    He has to keep distracting from the economy, which is the most important issue.

    If the focus turns to the economy, Obama loses.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  9. driveby
    Offline

    driveby Gold Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2008
    Messages:
    8,836
    Thanks Received:
    2,305
    Trophy Points:
    183
    Ratings:
    +2,325
    Yep, Obama/Biden 2012 " It could have been worse..."
     
  10. candycorn
    Offline

    candycorn Alis volat propriis

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2009
    Messages:
    37,576
    Thanks Received:
    4,551
    Trophy Points:
    1,130
    Ratings:
    +12,069
    Show up.
     

Share This Page