What Obama Needs to Win Re-election
When comparing the 2008 race, I looked up the demographics to determine what Obama needs to meet the standards he set for himself in 2008. We can decide if he is making the strides this time around and has a good shot of four more years.
1. In 2008, 65.3% of the black voters came out voted. That was an increase of 5% points from 2004. Is his African American base as energized this year with the high unemployment as it was in 2008?
2. The stunning black vote was driven in part by young voters which is in trouble in all demographics this year. The white young vote garnered 54% of his votes.
3. 96% of the black vote went for Obama, 43% of whites voted for him. With claims of a divisive administration , will Obama be able to receive the 43 % of the white vote this year?
4. 47% of white college graduates voted for Obama, 40% working class whites. The promises of jobs were a drawing card, but did he deliver for these voters? November will tell us.
5. Half of suburban voters voted for Obama. These are homeowners who have seen the value of their homes go down and some have lost their homes. Does that mean he has lost their vote?
6. 60% of moderates, 20% of conservatives voted for Obama in 2008 His policies must appear more radical now to some of those voters, perhaps even socialistic.
7. 51% of non union people voted for Obama in the last election, have they changed their minds after seeing the lip service to Wisconsins problems and waivers to unions in Obamacare?
It will be interesting to see if the president can keep his numbers as such a high level as they were in 2008, but he does have wiggle room. He won the last election 53% To McCains 47. But I dont know how far he can wiggle.
Dissecting the 2008 Electorate: Most Diverse in U.S. History - Pew Research Center
Demographics of How Groups Voted in the 2008 Presidential Election
Exit polls: How Obama won - David Paul Kuhn - POLITICO.com
When comparing the 2008 race, I looked up the demographics to determine what Obama needs to meet the standards he set for himself in 2008. We can decide if he is making the strides this time around and has a good shot of four more years.
1. In 2008, 65.3% of the black voters came out voted. That was an increase of 5% points from 2004. Is his African American base as energized this year with the high unemployment as it was in 2008?
2. The stunning black vote was driven in part by young voters which is in trouble in all demographics this year. The white young vote garnered 54% of his votes.
3. 96% of the black vote went for Obama, 43% of whites voted for him. With claims of a divisive administration , will Obama be able to receive the 43 % of the white vote this year?
4. 47% of white college graduates voted for Obama, 40% working class whites. The promises of jobs were a drawing card, but did he deliver for these voters? November will tell us.
5. Half of suburban voters voted for Obama. These are homeowners who have seen the value of their homes go down and some have lost their homes. Does that mean he has lost their vote?
6. 60% of moderates, 20% of conservatives voted for Obama in 2008 His policies must appear more radical now to some of those voters, perhaps even socialistic.
7. 51% of non union people voted for Obama in the last election, have they changed their minds after seeing the lip service to Wisconsins problems and waivers to unions in Obamacare?
It will be interesting to see if the president can keep his numbers as such a high level as they were in 2008, but he does have wiggle room. He won the last election 53% To McCains 47. But I dont know how far he can wiggle.
Dissecting the 2008 Electorate: Most Diverse in U.S. History - Pew Research Center
Demographics of How Groups Voted in the 2008 Presidential Election
Exit polls: How Obama won - David Paul Kuhn - POLITICO.com