CDZ Unemployment rate......

Discussion in 'Clean Debate Zone' started by andy753, Nov 22, 2016.

  1. andy753
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    andy753 Senior Member

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    If you ask Republicans about the last 8 years, the unemployment number is wrong. If the government says it's 5%, it's actually 15% or even 20% I hear all the time. Who really knows? Not sure if there is an "unemployment" expert on this board, or someone who actually works at the Dept of Labor to help us out on this debate.

    So fast foward 2, 3, 4 years. The Dept of Labor says unemployment is at 5%. Will Republicans still say it's actually 15%? Or will they says its 20%? Or will the numbers actually be 3%?

    Not an anti Repub thread here, I'm just pointing out what they say when it comes to unemployment. At least most of them.
     
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  2. Damaged Eagle
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    Damaged Eagle Highwayman Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    upload_2016-11-22_1-22-22.jpeg

    If you go by the U.S. National Debt Clock...

    U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

    OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYED - 7,780,000

    ACTUAL UNEMPLOYED - 15,159,000

    ...Then unemployment is nearly double what is being Officially Reported.

    *****SMILE*****



    :)

    I suspect the Actual Unemployment number to be lower than what is being reported because there are twenty year olds who I know who have never been employed and others who have left the work force which are no longer counted.
     
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  3. Lumpy 1
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    Lumpy 1 Diamond Member Supporting Member

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  4. Faun
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    Faun Messiah

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    The "official unemployed" is the U-3 rate.

    The "actual unemployed" is the U-6 rate.
     
  5. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    Official Definition of Unemployed: "All persons who had no employment during the reference week, were available for work, except for temporary illness, and had made specific efforts to find employment some time during the 4-week period ending with the reference week. Persons who were waiting to be recalled to a job from which they had been laid off need not have been looking for work to be classified as unemployed."

    Note that the twenty year olds who have never been employed would still be considered unemployed under this definition as long as they were looking for and available for work.

    So, what is the U.S. National Debt Clock calling "actual unemployed?"
    To the 7,787,000 unemployed they are adding 1,700,000 people Marginally Attached to the Labor Force. These are people who say they want a job, and could start work if offered, and have looked for work in the last 12 months but not the last 4 weeks. Reasons vary for why they stopped looking but most stopped looking for personal reasons such as family obligations, or in school/training.

    Ok, that gives us 9,487,000. The other 5,889,000 are Part Time for Economic Reasons. These are people who are EMPLOYED, but, for the reference week of the labor force survey, worked fewer than 35 hours either because hours were cut due to slow business or business conditions (cutting hours for Obamacare), or because the person could not find a full time job, or because they were hired or fired or quit that week and only worked a part week.. Note that many of the Part Time for Economic Reasons have full time jobs.

    So to call people not currently trying to get a job and people who actually have jobs "actual unemployed" is very strange.
     
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  6. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    Well, at the end of Bush's second term, when the UE rate started going up, there were a few Democrats who trotted out alternate measures such as the U-6 claiming that the Bush Dept of Labor was manipulating the data and the real rate was much higher. Under Obama, it became the Republicans claiming manipulated data, and many more and more loudly.

    The thing I find funny is that some claim the official headline number is fake, and as evidence use the U-6, which is calculated by the same people and published in the same report. Why would anyone publish fake and real numbers together? And then there are those who say the seasonally adjusted numbers are meant to show things better than they really are, but are silent about that issue when the seasonal adjustment makes the numbers lower.
     
  7. Fishlore
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    Fishlore Silver Member

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    The unemployment rate is a statistic, not a fact. This means that it is not a number achieved by counting but the result of a mathematical formula combining variables. The variables themselves have definitions that can be changed as well as the formula combining them.

    As the nation began to recover from the disaster of 2007, an increasing number of political commentators opposed to the Obama administration began changing the formula and some of the definitions in order to be able to blunt the good news and highlight on-going problems. For example, we began to hear about the "labor participation rate" instead of the unemployment rate. In the social sciences this sort of thing goes on all the time. When transferred to the popular media, it becomes a technique for slanting the news for political purposes. It has become on of the pillars of the "fake news" phenomenon.
     
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  8. sealybobo
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    sealybobo Diamond Member

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    You are seeing that they are incredible liars, huh?

    Unemployment at 16-Year Low; Payrolls Add 138,000

    First of all, this is the economy Obama handed Trump. A good one. But Republicans said only 138,000 jobs is pathetic, so Mr. Trump we expect more from you. You promised bigger and faster growth. So far we aren't seeing it.

    138,000 jobs were added last month. Economists had expected a gain of about 185,000.

    Trump's an under achiever.

    4.3%.

    A broader measure of unemployment — including people who work part time but want full-time jobs, and those who have become too discouraged to keep looking but would take a job if they could find one — dropped to 8.4 percent, the lowest since 2007.

    CDZ - Unemployment rate......
     
  9. Toronado3800
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    Toronado3800 VIP Member

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    Good post. Underemployment is my favorite term. People raising families off McJobs. It has been a problem since the 90's at least so we can ridicule the numbers of Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump.

    If I had the time I would go through old news shows and old posts so I could mark the party cheerleaders.
     
  10. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    A mile stone for Trump is that months when UE goes up usually is a result of increased Labor participation. Also when illegals leave the country they also leave the labor force and that can give strange results too.
     

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