once again iran wins and now israel is the big loser

[blu]

There are now 3 key actors in our middle eastern foreign policy.

1) Iran

Iran has direct control over whether our withdrawal from iraq will be successful and if the "democracy" we created will become stable.
Iran also obviously has some WMD creation issues that tie us to #2

2) Israel
One of our two allies in the middle east (#3 turkey being the other). Israel refuses to give iran WMD (for obvious reasons) and Irsael is now in a rift with #3. Israel also has its gaza issues, the heart of the turkey crisis, and it now seems that the USA may be reversing its role and stance on gaza, the blockade, and israels entire landscape. This will mean huge FP shifts and basically isolate israel into a corner with 0 friends.

3) Turkey
A rising star in the ME with strong ties to the USA. Now the "victim" in the flotilla crisis and it seems USA will side with Turkey on the issue. Turkey also genrally has strong ties with israel but may break these off as well, then completely isolating israel and losing them a sane, arab outlet to broker with

All of this spells bad for israel, USA will not pressure iran on nukes because then iran will fuck up iraq, USA will not side with israel on flotilla b/c then it loses our ally turkey, turkey will not side with irsael (for obvious reasons)

 

[Chris]

We spent $700 billion dollars and 4,000 American lives to establish a Shia government in Iraq allied with Iran.

Thank you, George Bush.

 

[ekrem]

There are now 3 key actors in our middle eastern foreign policy.

1) Iran

Iran has direct control over whether our withdrawal from iraq will be successful and if the "democracy" we created will become stable.
Iran also obviously has some WMD creation issues that tie us to #2

2) Israel
One of our two allies in the middle east (#3 turkey being the other). Israel refuses to give iran WMD (for obvious reasons) and Irsael is now in a rift with #3. Israel also has its gaza issues, the heart of the turkey crisis, and it now seems that the USA may be reversing its role and stance on gaza, the blockade, and israels entire landscape. This will mean huge FP shifts and basically isolate israel into a corner with 0 friends.

3) Turkey
A rising star in the ME with strong ties to the USA. Now the "victim" in the flotilla crisis and it seems USA will side with Turkey on the issue. Turkey also genrally has strong ties with israel but may break these off as well, then completely isolating israel and losing them a sane, arab outlet to broker with

All of this spells bad for israel, USA will not pressure iran on nukes because then iran will fuck up iraq, USA will not side with israel on flotilla b/c then it loses our ally turkey, turkey will not side with irsael (for obvious reasons)

We are in a transition period, and the USA won't abandon Israel.
The result will be, that USA's influence will be reduced to the absolute minimum in West-Asia, which will be ruled by truly independent countries based on the principle of people's rule.

The revolutions in this area will continue.
Egypt had the strongest institutionalized grip on power, with it being the most populous Arab country.
Egypt was the corner-piece to avoid 'change' in the dynamics of the Arab world.
People have succeeded to overthrow the Egyptian system, overthrowing other systems in other Arab countries is a relative easy task.
The revolution in Egypt has had an immense effect on the psyche of the Joe-Arab on the street.

Unlike the Eastern-European transformation towards democracy (happened fast), transformation in the Arab countries will be a long period, probably hitting every Arab country except S.Arabia and Syria.
Establishing people's rule will go hand-in-hand with US's redeployment out of this region.

As to your sentence, that Iran is winning:
This is the wrong point of view. Iran isn't winning anything, it is just establishing its sphere of influence, which Iran can't be denied given it's size and religious-ethnic connection to the region.
You have to live with that.

 

[ekrem]

US-backed revolution in Ukraine has been reverted, US-backed revolution in Georgia has been abandoned.

US exceptionalism has transformed into exceptionalism in foreign policy fails.
So, is this because USA is governed by the wrong presidents?
Or, that world has changed, is still changing, and the type of US power we witnessed some decades ago is no more?