1. President Clinton relied on an analysis of "The Keys to the White House" by Prof. Lichtman in deciding whether or not to run in 1992. The analysis showed that a charismatic newcomer could defeat the incumbent. I believe we are in the exact same situation now. 2. Prof. Lichtman's theory involves evaluating 13 key factors - if an incumbent has 7 or more of them in his favor, he will be reelected. Lichtman's ideas are relevant because he's correctly predicted the outcomes of presidential elections since 1984. According to the professor, Obama is a shoo-in for 2012 because he would be awarded 9 of 13 'keys' needed to be elected. 2012 is not decided yet. | Corrente 3. Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.The keys have figured into popular politics a bit, Lichtman says. Theyve never missed. Theyve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to. 4. Below are each of the keys and how it falls for Obama. 1.Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Says Lichtman, Even back in January 2010 when I first released my predictions, I was already counting on a significant loss. Obama loses this key. 2.Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Says Lichtman on Obamas unchallenged status, I never thought there would be any serious contest against Barack Obama in the Democratic primary. Obama wins this key. 3.Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Easy win here for Obama. 4.Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins this point. 5.Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Here Lichtman declares an undecided. 6.Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Says Lichtman, I discounted long term economy against Obama. Clearly we are in a recession. Obama loses this key. [Read: Seven Ways Obama Can Gain Credibility on Jobs.] 7.Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. There have been major policy changes in this administration. Weve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change, says the scholar. Another win for Obama. 8.Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, There wasnt any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isnt. Obama wins a fifth key here. 9.Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. This administration has been squeaky clean. Theres nothing on scandal, says Lichtman. Another Obama win. 10.Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, We havent seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and dont foresee anything. Obama wins again. 11.Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success. Obama wins his eighth key. 12.Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Explains Lichtman, I did not give President Obama the incumbent charisma key. I counted it against him. Hes really led from behind. He didnt really take the lead in the healthcare debate, he didnt use his speaking ability to move the American people during the recession. Hes lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election. Obama loses this key. [See political cartoons about President Obama.] 13.Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Says Lichtman, We havent seen any candidate in the GOP who meets this criteria and probably wont. Obama wins, bringing his total to nine keys, three more than needed to win reelection. Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012 - Washington Whispers (usnews.com) ....Ya' think?