NASA and ESA on the cause of the heat wave

[ding]

GIGO is about computers in general, not simulations. And it undeniably implies that good data in makes for good data out.

No. It's about computer models or simulations.

And not data per se but an accurate representation/understanding of the process being modeled.

 

[Crick]

No. It's about computer models or simulations.

And not data per se but an accurate representation/understanding of the process being modeled.

Three different sources. Not one mentions models.

Garbage in, garbage out​

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"GIGO" redirects here. For the protein subunits, see Gi/Go. For the Japanese arcade chain GENDA GiGO, see Sega World.
In computer science, garbage in, garbage out (GIGO) is the concept that flawed, or nonsense (garbage) input data produces nonsense output. Rubbish in, rubbish out (RIRO) is an alternate wording.[1][2][3]
The principle applies to all logical argumentation: soundness implies validity, but validity does not imply soundness.

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What is garbage in, garbage out (GIGO)?​

Garbage in, garbage out, or GIGO, refers to the idea that in any system, the quality of output is determined by the quality of the input. For example, if a mathematical equation is improperly stated, the answer is unlikely to be correct. Similarly, if incorrect data is used as input into a computer program, the output is unlikely to be correct or informative.

What is garbage in, garbage out (GIGO) ? | Definition from TechTarget

Garbage in, garbage out is how the quality of system output is determined by the quality of input. Explore history, examples, types and more on the subject.

www.techtarget.com

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Dictionary
Definitions from Oxford Languages · Learn more

garbage in, garbage out
phrase of garbage

used to express the idea that in computing and other spheres, incorrect or poor quality input will always produce faulty output.

 

[ding]

Three different sources. Not one mentions models.

Garbage in, garbage out​

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"GIGO" redirects here. For the protein subunits, see Gi/Go. For the Japanese arcade chain GENDA GiGO, see Sega World.
In computer science, garbage in, garbage out (GIGO) is the concept that flawed, or nonsense (garbage) input data produces nonsense output. Rubbish in, rubbish out (RIRO) is an alternate wording.[1][2][3]
The principle applies to all logical argumentation: soundness implies validity, but validity does not imply soundness.

---

---

What is garbage in, garbage out (GIGO)?​

Garbage in, garbage out, or GIGO, refers to the idea that in any system, the quality of output is determined by the quality of the input. For example, if a mathematical equation is improperly stated, the answer is unlikely to be correct. Similarly, if incorrect data is used as input into a computer program, the output is unlikely to be correct or informative.

What is garbage in, garbage out (GIGO) ? | Definition from TechTarget

Garbage in, garbage out is how the quality of system output is determined by the quality of input. Explore history, examples, types and more on the subject.

www.techtarget.com

---

---

Dictionary
Definitions from Oxford Languages · Learn more

garbage in, garbage out
phrase of garbage

used to express the idea that in computing and other spheres, incorrect or poor quality input will always produce faulty output.

You also believed curve fitting wasn’t taught in intro to engineering. So you can continue to believe wrong things as far as I am concerned.

 

[Delldude]

GIGO is about computers in general, not simulations. And it undeniably implies that good data in makes for good data out.

Why have they been caught ' massaging'
good data then?

 

[Crick]

Why have they been caught ' massaging'
good data then?

Links?

 

[Delldude]

Links?

Didn't you already bring that up in another thread?

 

[Crick]

Didn't you already bring that up in another thread?

Links? Why yes, I have. Why? Don't you have any?

 

[Delldude]

Links? Why yes, I have. Why? Don't you have any?

They're in the other thread..............

 

[Delldude]

Oh look.......same volcanic eruption, more data analysis. Get used to excess precipitation and surface warming.

When the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano erupted on January 15, 2022 in the South Pacific, it produced a shock wave felt around the world and triggered tsunamis in Tonga, Fiji, New Zealand, Japan, Chile, Peru and the United States.
_________________________
Driving those atmospheric changes, according to the research, was the sheer amount of water vapor injected into the stratosphere by the undersea volcano. The location of the stratosphere is approximately 8–30 miles above Earth's surface and is where the protective ozone layer resides.

"The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption was truly extraordinary in that it injected about 300 billion pounds of water into the normally dry stratosphere, which is just an absolutely incredible amount of water from a single event," said David Wilmouth, a project scientist at SEAS and first author of the paper.
__________________________
The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption was the largest explosion ever recorded in the atmosphere. The eruption hurled aerosols and gases deep into the stratosphere. Some material reached the lower mesosphere, more than 30 miles above the Earth's surface, altitudes never recorded from a volcanic eruption.
___________________________
The team found that the injection of water vapor and sulfur dioxide (SO2) changed both the chemistry and the dynamics of the stratosphere.
____________________________
The extra water vapor also had a cooling effect in the stratosphere, leading to a change in circulation, which drove decreases in ozone in the southern hemisphere and an increase of ozone over the tropics.

Study examines how massive 2022 eruption changed stratosphere chemistry and dynamics

When the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano erupted on January 15, 2022 in the South Pacific, it produced a shock wave felt around the world and triggered tsunamis in Tonga, Fiji, New Zealand, Japan, Chile, Peru and the United States.

phys.org

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2301994120

It may take several years for the H2O plume to dissipate. This eruption could impact climate not through surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming due to the radiative forcing from the excess stratospheric H2O.

Loading…

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

 

[Crick]

Oh look.......same volcanic eruption, more data analysis. Get used to excess precipitation and surface warming.

When the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano erupted on January 15, 2022 in the South Pacific, it produced a shock wave felt around the world and triggered tsunamis in Tonga, Fiji, New Zealand, Japan, Chile, Peru and the United States.
_________________________
Driving those atmospheric changes, according to the research, was the sheer amount of water vapor injected into the stratosphere by the undersea volcano. The location of the stratosphere is approximately 8–30 miles above Earth's surface and is where the protective ozone layer resides.

"The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption was truly extraordinary in that it injected about 300 billion pounds of water into the normally dry stratosphere, which is just an absolutely incredible amount of water from a single event," said David Wilmouth, a project scientist at SEAS and first author of the paper.
__________________________
The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption was the largest explosion ever recorded in the atmosphere. The eruption hurled aerosols and gases deep into the stratosphere. Some material reached the lower mesosphere, more than 30 miles above the Earth's surface, altitudes never recorded from a volcanic eruption.
___________________________
The team found that the injection of water vapor and sulfur dioxide (SO2) changed both the chemistry and the dynamics of the stratosphere.
____________________________
The extra water vapor also had a cooling effect in the stratosphere, leading to a change in circulation, which drove decreases in ozone in the southern hemisphere and an increase of ozone over the tropics.

Study examines how massive 2022 eruption changed stratosphere chemistry and dynamics

When the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano erupted on January 15, 2022 in the South Pacific, it produced a shock wave felt around the world and triggered tsunamis in Tonga, Fiji, New Zealand, Japan, Chile, Peru and the United States.

phys.org

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2301994120

It may take several years for the H2O plume to dissipate. This eruption could impact climate not through surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming due to the radiative forcing from the excess stratospheric H2O.

Loading…

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

From the study to which your article links

Note the changes in scaling over time and the limited latitudes affected

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2301994120

Maximum mixing ratios went from highs of 30 to highs of 8 over the course of ten months.

 

[Delldude]

Note the changes in scaling over time and the limited latitudes affected

Limited? Only at the time of their study.

Next, the researchers hope to continue the study by following the impact of the volcano into 2023 and beyond as the water vapor moves from the tropics and midlatitudes to the Southern Hemisphere pole, where it has the potential to amplify ozone losses in the Antarctic. The water vapor is expected to stay elevated in the stratosphere for a period of several years.

Maximum mixing ratios went from highs of 30 to highs of 8 over the course of ten months.

Which are higher than normal ratio's.

 

[Crick]

Limited? Only at the time of their study.

Next, the researchers hope to continue the study by following the impact of the volcano into 2023 and beyond as the water vapor moves from the tropics and midlatitudes to the Southern Hemisphere pole, where it has the potential to amplify ozone losses in the Antarctic. The water vapor is expected to stay elevated in the stratosphere for a period of several years.

Which are higher than normal ratio's.

Of course. The point is that the water vapor is leaving the stratosphere. The effects of the eruption - the biggest explosion in recorded history I guess - will be gone in a year or two.

 

[Delldude]

Of course. The point is that the water vapor is leaving the stratosphere. The effects of the eruption - the biggest explosion in recorded history I guess - will be gone in a year or two.

Yeah, it's leaving the stratosphere and creating above normal levels of precipitation.

Issue is the effect on weather from the huge volume of moisture released into the stratosphere and above. A related study indicated increased surface temps would be the result. Here we are.

Bu-bu-but climate change.

 

[Crick]

Yeah, it's leaving the stratosphere and creating above normal levels of precipitation.

Issue is the effect on weather from the huge volume of moisture released into the stratosphere and above. A related study indicated increased surface temps would be the result. Here we are.

Bu-bu-but climate change.

I don't understand what point you're trying to make. I have you pegged as a denier, but I don't know which line you go with in that regard. What do you believe to be the significance of the volcano causing increased temperatures by pumping several billion tons of water vapor (a potent greenhouse gas) into the stratosphere - which normally has none?

Oh, wait, I get it. The volcano and the heat wave vice a surge of AGW.

 

[Delldude]

What do you believe to be the significance of the volcano causing increased temperatures by pumping several billion tons of water vapor (a potent greenhouse gas) into the stratosphere - which normally has none?

Fairly obvious in record precipitation rates since the event. All that moisture has to go somewhere.
And thank you for pointing out that all that water vapor is a potent green house gas......There's your answer for a rise in surface temps.

 

[Crick]

Fairly obvious in record precipitation rates since the event. All that moisture has to go somewhere.
And thank you for pointing out that all that water vapor is a potent green house gas......There's your answer for a rise in surface temps.

Here is global temperature for 2021, 2022 and 2023. The Tonga volcano erupted 14-15 January of 2022. The insertion of water vapor into the stratosphere was immediate, yet I see NO extra heating in 2022. I'm no scientist, but I kinda think the effect of the volcano was not as significant as you seem to think it was. The current heat wave looks to have begun in May of 2023 (see the last graph), a full 17 months after the eruption.

2021 year-to-date temperatures versus previous years | Annual 2021 Global Climate Report | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

A collection of monthly summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale

www.ncei.noaa.gov

2022 year-to-date temperatures versus previous years | Annual 2022 Global Climate Report | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

A collection of monthly summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale

www.ncei.noaa.gov

2023 Year-to-Date Temperatures Versus Previous Years | October 2023 Global Climate Report | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

A collection of monthly summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale

www.ncei.noaa.gov

 

[Crick]

Here is global temperature for 2021, 2022 and 2023. The Tonga volcano erupted 14-15 January of 2022. The insertion of water vapor into the stratosphere was immediate, yet I see NO extra heating in 2022. I'm no scientist, but I kinda think the effect of the volcano was not as significant as you seem to think it was. The current heat wave looks to have begun in May of 2023 (see the last graph), a full 17 months after the eruption.


View attachment 865895

2021 year-to-date temperatures versus previous years | Annual 2021 Global Climate Report | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

A collection of monthly summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale

www.ncei.noaa.gov

View attachment 865894

2022 year-to-date temperatures versus previous years | Annual 2022 Global Climate Report | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

A collection of monthly summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale

www.ncei.noaa.gov

View attachment 865897

2023 Year-to-Date Temperatures Versus Previous Years | October 2023 Global Climate Report | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

A collection of monthly summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale

www.ncei.noaa.gov

And, like I said, I'm no scientist. Maybe it DOES take 17 months for that water to have an effect and I'm sure at some time scale there was some warming effect from all that water vapor - after all, the scientists all said there would be. But I can think of a couple things that might minimize the effect. The Stratosphere is the last layer of the atmosphere before space. IR energy trapped there would have a greater chance of escaping directly to space or of not heading directly back to the surface than would IR energy trapped at lower altitudes. And the Stratosphere is not a comfortable environment for water vapor. Prior to the eruption, there was virtually no water vapor in the stratopshere and it's greenhouse function was almost entirely defined by its CO2 content. The entire span of the layer is well below freezing and its temperature goes down with increasing altitude. Therefore the injected vapor is going to condense and freeze and will then simply fall. As I have noted here on several occasions, water in the atmosphere can't be artificially increased because it is a precipitable component. It will, as you have noted, precipitate. The world will get a little extra rain and that will be that.

 

[jc456]

yet I see NO extra heating in 2022.

I thought you said 2022 was the hottest year evah!!!!!!

 

[Crick]

I thought you said 2022 was the hottest year evah!!!!!!

The voices you hear in your head are not my posts. They only appear on your screen. The voice in your head is due to the psychic link you have developed with Greta T.

 

[jc456]

The voices you hear in your head are not my posts. They only appear on your screen. The voice in your head is due to the psychic link you have developed with Greta T.

I was thinking about this thread...

2022's Series of Disasters Could Be Linked to a New Ocean Record

For the fourth year in a row, the oceans are hotter than ever. "If we keep breaking records, it's kind of like a broken record," said one researcher.

gizmodo.com

In 2022, the world's oceans increased their heat content by TWENTY TIMES the total energy usage of the human race over the same period.