global warming turns 35

[IanC]

A problem with consesus is what questions you ask and how you score them. has the earth warmed over the last hundred years? yes. did burning fossil fuels contribute to that warming? yes. but what if you change the questions? did the earth warm from 1998-2008 to statistical certainty Dr Jones?-no (if thats not the guy or the years, yu knw what I mean). or, is mankind responsible for all the changes in he climate? no.

Old Rocks- I am personally interested in your opinion on how much of the last century's warming is due to man and how much is just a carry over from the recovery of the Little Ice Age. tia

Ten years ago, I stated that the warming was 60% natural, 40% GHGs. Today, I would say that the only part that was natural was the warming in the early part of the 20th Century. And that warming was 40% the work of GHGs. What we are seeing today is almost 100% due to the GHGs. For there has been a slight decline in the TSI, or not a significant increase, and even in a solar minimum, and a strong La Nina, we continued to be very warm.

However, I think that in 10 years we will see a much stronger natural component to the warming as the GHGs come out of the permafrost and Arctic Ocean Clathrates due to the warming we have created.

Interesting article. Althougth the introduction did point out that the actual data was sparse, the time line so short as to lose most cyclical change, and the complexities were far above our understanding; the actual modelling looks pretty good. I have always believed our burning fossil fuels has an impact (how could it not) just not the sizable portion that is being portrayed. How has this positive feedback loop been reversed in the past? Orbital tilts and such?

As much as I am interested in this modelling, did any of these scientists look at the data and predict the observed warming on other planetary bodies, such as been happening? It would certainly enhance my respect for them and show the customary enthusiasm of scientists to impress us with their insights.

 

[JBeukema]

A problem with consesus is what questions you ask and how you score them. has the earth warmed over the last hundred years? yes. did burning fossil fuels contribute to that warming? yes. but what if you change the questions? did the earth warm from 1998-2008 to statistical certainty Dr Jones?-no (if thats not the guy or the years, yu knw what I mean). or, is mankind responsible for all the changes in he climate? no.

Old Rocks- I am personally interested in your opinion on how much of the last century's warming is due to man and how much is just a carry over from the recovery of the Little Ice Age. tia

Ten years ago, I stated that the warming was 60% natural, 40% GHGs. Today, I would say that the only part that was natural was the warming in the early part of the 20th Century. And that warming was 40% the work of GHGs. What we are seeing today is almost 100% due to the GHGs. For there has been a slight decline in the TSI, or not a significant increase, and even in a solar minimum, and a strong La Nina, we continued to be very warm.

However, I think that in 10 years we will see a much stronger natural component to the warming as the GHGs come out of the permafrost and Arctic Ocean Clathrates due to the warming we have created.

Define: natural

water vapour increases are a natural phenomenon

CO^2 is naturally present

So to say it is part 'natural' and part GHGs doesn't really work