global warming turns 35

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Old Rocks, Aug 2, 2010.

  1. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    In 1975, when the wingnuts claim that everybody was screaming "another ice age coming", this paper was published in a peer reviewed journal.

    Clear predictions were made, and turned out to be quite accurate concerning the overall temperature rise. The 'sceptics' have yet to publish any such papers. In fact, they cannot even get the past decade right.


    "Global Warming" turns 35 : A Few Things Ill Considered

    Global Warming" turns 35
    Category: Announcements • general • other blogs • papers
    Posted on: July 30, 2010 7:57 PM, by coby

    This is not a reference to the recent three decades of rapidly increasing global temperatures, rather it is a reference to an aniversary of the first appearance of the term "global warming" in the peer reviewed literature. The paper was by Wally Broeker and titled "Are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming?"



    Real Climate has an interesting post on the details of this paper. The short version is that despite numerous considerations in the paper that have played out differently than hypothesized, the overall prediction of temperature by the end of the 20th century was remarkably accurate.


    In this paper, Broecker correctly predicted "that the present cooling trend will, within a decade or so, give way to a pronounced warming induced by carbon dioxide", and that "by early in the next century [carbon dioxide] will have driven the mean planetary temperature beyond the limits experienced during the last 1000 years". He predicted an overall 20th Century global warming of 0.8ºC due to CO2 and worried about the consequences for agriculture and sea level.
    [....]
    To those who even today claim that global warming is not predictable, the anniversary of Broecker's paper is a reminder that global warming was actually predicted before it became evident in the global temperature records over a decade later (when Jim Hansen in 1988 famously stated that "global warming is here").
     
  2. konradv
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    konradv Gold Member

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    To those who even today claim that global warming is not predictable, the anniversary of Broecker's paper is a reminder that global warming was actually predicted before it became evident in the global temperature records over a decade later

    That's why I like to say, IT'S THE GASES, STUPID. Given the Laws of Chemistry and Physics, if you have an increase in GHGs, warming is inevitable, regardless of whether an increase can be demonstrated at the present time. It's simple logic.

    I also love when the deniers scream, "in the 70s they said we'd be going into another Ice Age". A meme whose aim, I guess, is to suggest that "scientists don't know what they're talking about", when it SHOULD be making them wonder, "what made scientists change their minds so fast?"!
     
  3. Quantum Windbag
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    Quantum Windbag Gold Member

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    I happen to believe scientists know what they are talking about all the time, unless they don't. How does the fact that one paper was published in 1975 change the fact that the consensus at that time was that the Earth was cooling? That is the part that always gets me when alarmists want me to believe something, it they have facts on their side why do they have to lie about history?
     
  4. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    Peer reviewed papers back then showed a Consensus on Global Cooling
     
  5. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Why do you have to lie continously about a consensus that did not exist?

    http://www.aiacny.org/2009/June/GLOBAL WARMING AND THE ARCHITECT- June 09.pdf

    Scientific studies in the 1970's re: global cooling”
    “Most predictions of an impending ice age came from the popular press (eg - Newsweek,
    NY Times, National Geographic, Time Magazine). As far as peer reviewed scientific papers
    in the 1970s, very few papers (7 in total) predicted global cooling. Significantly more papers
    (42 in total) predicted global warming due to CO2.”
     
  6. elvis
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    elvis BANNED Supporting Member

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    yawn.
     
  7. Zander
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    Zander Platinum Member

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  8. Chris
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    Chris Gold Member

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    Link?
     
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