California getting crushed in high-speed rail race

[Big Fitz]

Have you ever been to Boston?

Yes!

Woostah too ...

U just love saying Woostah.. Dontcha? I should teach you the correct pronounciation of LouisVille. (Lulvul)

I thought it was Loouhvul.

 

[flacaltenn]

Here ya go Junkie -- from an acceptable source..

California High-Speed Rail Authority Releases Ambitious New Plan

The revised plan would save money by merging the bullet train with existing commuter rail lines in the San Francisco Bay area and Los Angeles basin, where tracks would be electrified. Nearly $1 billion in voter-approved bonds is available for upgrades to existing tracks, which officials say would speed up rail service and possibly generate more riders.

The bulk of the remaining cost would come from fares and private financing, with any shortfall filled by tapping into California's new industrial "cap-and-trade" program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Environmentalists who supported that program and critics of high-speed rail have questioned whether that money can be used for such projects.

Dan Richard, chairman of the high-speed rail board, said the governor and Department of Finance believe the cap-and-trade fees are a legally viable funding source.

Sen. Doug LaMalfa, R-Willows, a critic of the high-speed rail plan, called the latest proposal a "bait-and-switch" with a $55 billion funding gap. He is promoting a ballot petition seeking to repeal the 2008 ballot measure.

"It is clear that this project is not the project that was presented to voters in 2008, and if it is to be pursued it needs to go back on the ballot," said Coupal, who co-authored the ballot arguments against the bonds in 2008.

The initial phase will link the Central Valley city of Merced and the San Fernando Valley by 2022, expanding on what originally had been proposed as a 130-mile Madera-to-Bakersfield section that critics had lampooned as a "train to nowhere."

Brown ordered the board to rethink its previous proposal as polls showed a majority of voters wanted to reconsider the $9 billion in startup funding they authorized four years ago.

Do you realize what an ordeal it is to ride CalTrain from San Jose to San Fran? I do.. It ain't gonna save you JACK in terms of time. But the key to the renewed interest in this zombie project is right in that quote..

It's about tying up the Calif. Tax and Cap carbon slush fund that EVERYONE wants to get their paws on.. Boy THAT'S gonna hurt the little guy...

 

[flacaltenn]

Yes!

Woostah too ...

U just love saying Woostah.. Dontcha? I should teach you the correct pronounciation of LouisVille. (Lulvul)

I thought it was Loouhvul.

Oh man -- that's almost perfect.. But I've never managed to catch the middle "u". Maybe a few more years of Southern exposure...

 

[Flopper]

For whatever reason, I hated to see the disappearance of passenger trains. It was such a nice way to travel. I suppose they'll never return to the US due to the cost.

I spent two summers in Europe traveling mostly by train. It seem like wherever I wanted to go, there was a train leaving within 20 or 30 minutes. For the most part, they were clean, comfortable, and fast.

 

[rightwinger]

It would not be profitable there either.

It already is

Only because Biden and Wall Streeters living in all those Litttle towns can get on from their fancy suburbs.. You think "hi-speed" means "stop every 12 miles?"

The Acela doesn't stop every 12 miles, only major cities

It is a very profitable run and is usually full

 

[Avorysuds]

I don't think anyone in California would use it. It would have to be subsidized by the taxpayer to be cheaper than flying or driving

I do like it when we can agree on things.

 

[flacaltenn]

I will say one thing on the possible future of train travel being possible.

Long distance travel at high speed (coast to coast in at longest 24 hours) WITH own vehicle on board. If that can be done for comparatively the same price as a plane ticket for a family of 4-5, they have a shot at doing that. Of course, that would require an average speed of at least 150mph with short stops only at a few major hubs.

The catch is that you would have heavy trains with the need for eliminating grade crossings able to traverse 3000 miles approximately in a day. The current track structure cannot handle it. It'd take possibly a trillion dollars or more just to get the track laid, let along fight the legal battles to do it, and then consider the fact that this is also not in the budget for a large market either no matter what is said otherwise.

So, that's one outlandish possibility. Almost an X Prize level of possible success and profitability. aka, maybe someday a long way off.

Isnt' that how you go thru the Chunnel? I thought you loaded your car on and sat and ate snails all the way back to London.. In the US, if they had Wi-Fi and carhops delivering finger food -- and maybe a plug to run your electric stuff --- that could be neat if there was a view.

 

[Avorysuds]

There are some huge differences between the US and Europe. The US is fucking huge foe one. Building the tracks would span over thousands of miles to make it worth a shit and it would cost incredible amounts of money to achieve this goal.

The US never expanded with trains in mind either, this means that we have big cities that are pretty far from one another that act as individual hubs. The likeliness of someone working in SF who lives in LA is less than .00001%, even if there were a bullet train to get them there and here is why.

Costs & Time… That’s really all.
Costs: The tickets would be insanely priced and even still that would prolly not pay a quarter of what it would cost to keep the whole thing operational on a daily basis. How many people could this train move in a day, 3-5 thousand? That’s nothing, 300+ billion and subsidies to keep it moving would push California into the deficit oblivion.

Time: Who would use this train, they super rich? So are we building a train for the super rich? Who would start their day at 3:00am so they can get to the train by 4:30am so they can get to SF from LA by 7:00am after boarding and getting off so that they can commute to work and get there by 8:00am.
Now all they need to do is get home!

So let’s assume tickets are in the 200$ (grossly undercharged = no profit and running a deficit for the state), and it takes about 5 hours to get to work and 5 hours to get home… With an 8 hour day the “average joe” would be out around 400$ and 18 hours a day. So again, who is this train for?

 

[Avorysuds]

It already is

Only because Biden and Wall Streeters living in all those Litttle towns can get on from their fancy suburbs.. You think "hi-speed" means "stop every 12 miles?"

The Acela doesn't stop every 12 miles, only major cities

It is a very profitable run and is usually full

I did a very quick google just to see. I don't know crap about this stuff, it was purely curiosity.

I did "is Acela profitable?"

So it looks like it's not even close.

Is the Northeast Corridor really profitable? - Fred Frailey - Trains Magazine - Online Community: Forums and Blogs

But in that Washington Post story, Boardman qualifies his statement in one important respect. To cover the Northeast Corridor’s capital costs, Amtrak still needs a government subsidy, he says. That is correct. How much are capital costs, on average? For the answer to that, go back to that same link and refer to page 4 of the 2009 report titled, “Northeast Corridor State of Good Repair Spend Plan.” There, it estimates the NEC’s annual, normalized capital needs the next 15 years as $368 million for infrastructure and equipment. Last fiscal year’s NEC operating profit of $61 million covers only one-sixth of that capital need.

 

[flacaltenn]

<<AvorySuds>> "who is it for?"

People who won't fly the SouthWest aerial cattle cars for $150?

 

[Avorysuds]

<<AvorySuds>> "who is it for?"

People who won't fly the SouthWest aerial cattle cars for $150?

The question was who will use it, not who would like to use it.

Who can afford to use it that has the time? So who are we building this 300 billion dollar train for. Southwest is privet, CBT (Cali-Bullet-Train) is not. One get's tax payer money and the other does not (or should not.)

 

[Unkotare]

The Boston-New York-Philadelphia-Washington corridor is the only route that high speed rail would be profitable

It would not be profitable there either.

It already is

Only when it serves their purposes to cook the books to make it look that way. The entire Amtrack operation in the Northeast is a money pit. Throw a couple hundred billion in expense on top of that and...

 

[Unkotare]

Have you ever been to Boston?

Yes!

Woostah too ...

Not that again...

 

[flacaltenn]

<<AvorySuds>> "who is it for?"

People who won't fly the SouthWest aerial cattle cars for $150?

The question was who will use it, not who would like to use it.

Who can afford to use it that has the time? So who are we building this 300 billion dollar train for. Southwest is privet, CBT (Cali-Bullet-Train) is not. One get's tax payer money and the other does not (or should not.)

Actually, I believe (almost certain) that the Commission plans on letting private operators take over at some point.. Can you believe that?

Anyway -- Kudos on being cynical about the Acela profit.. THis is same govt propaganda about how the Post Office never costs taxpayers a penny. Or how dam efficient Medicare is because they don't count the inter-agency help they get from IRS, Treas, Auditing and other sources.

 

[Political Junky]

Here ya go Junkie -- from an acceptable source..

California High-Speed Rail Authority Releases Ambitious New Plan

The revised plan would save money by merging the bullet train with existing commuter rail lines in the San Francisco Bay area and Los Angeles basin, where tracks would be electrified. Nearly $1 billion in voter-approved bonds is available for upgrades to existing tracks, which officials say would speed up rail service and possibly generate more riders.

The bulk of the remaining cost would come from fares and private financing, with any shortfall filled by tapping into California's new industrial "cap-and-trade" program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Environmentalists who supported that program and critics of high-speed rail have questioned whether that money can be used for such projects.

Dan Richard, chairman of the high-speed rail board, said the governor and Department of Finance believe the cap-and-trade fees are a legally viable funding source.

Sen. Doug LaMalfa, R-Willows, a critic of the high-speed rail plan, called the latest proposal a "bait-and-switch" with a $55 billion funding gap. He is promoting a ballot petition seeking to repeal the 2008 ballot measure.

"It is clear that this project is not the project that was presented to voters in 2008, and if it is to be pursued it needs to go back on the ballot," said Coupal, who co-authored the ballot arguments against the bonds in 2008.

The initial phase will link the Central Valley city of Merced and the San Fernando Valley by 2022, expanding on what originally had been proposed as a 130-mile Madera-to-Bakersfield section that critics had lampooned as a "train to nowhere."

Brown ordered the board to rethink its previous proposal as polls showed a majority of voters wanted to reconsider the $9 billion in startup funding they authorized four years ago.

Do you realize what an ordeal it is to ride CalTrain from San Jose to San Fran? I do.. It ain't gonna save you JACK in terms of time. But the key to the renewed interest in this zombie project is right in that quote..

It's about tying up the Calif. Tax and Cap carbon slush fund that EVERYONE wants to get their paws on.. Boy THAT'S gonna hurt the little guy...

Thanks, that video pretty much makes my point.

 

[Big Fitz]

I will say one thing on the possible future of train travel being possible.

Long distance travel at high speed (coast to coast in at longest 24 hours) WITH own vehicle on board. If that can be done for comparatively the same price as a plane ticket for a family of 4-5, they have a shot at doing that. Of course, that would require an average speed of at least 150mph with short stops only at a few major hubs.

The catch is that you would have heavy trains with the need for eliminating grade crossings able to traverse 3000 miles approximately in a day. The current track structure cannot handle it. It'd take possibly a trillion dollars or more just to get the track laid, let along fight the legal battles to do it, and then consider the fact that this is also not in the budget for a large market either no matter what is said otherwise.

So, that's one outlandish possibility. Almost an X Prize level of possible success and profitability. aka, maybe someday a long way off.

Isnt' that how you go thru the Chunnel? I thought you loaded your car on and sat and ate snails all the way back to London.. In the US, if they had Wi-Fi and carhops delivering finger food -- and maybe a plug to run your electric stuff --- that could be neat if there was a view.

Auto Train Transports You and Your Car - Lorton, VA - Sanford, FL | Amtrak

I've yet to figure out why they chose this route. But here's the basic model. It's heyday was in the 1970's. Unfortunately, it never ran well enough (thanks to government management among other reasons) to be profitable to be expanded. Great concept, but needs more private enterprise touches and innovation to make it work.

The big catch?

Passenger ticket 1 adult: $238.00
Vehicle fare: $169.00

So that's a $407.00 round trip one passenger one standard vehicle. That's gotta go down by say 25-50% before it'd be viable to the general public, or be a lot better service.

 

[rightwinger]

Only because Biden and Wall Streeters living in all those Litttle towns can get on from their fancy suburbs.. You think "hi-speed" means "stop every 12 miles?"

The Acela doesn't stop every 12 miles, only major cities

It is a very profitable run and is usually full

I did a very quick google just to see. I don't know crap about this stuff, it was purely curiosity.

I did "is Acela profitable?"

So it looks like it's not even close.

Is the Northeast Corridor really profitable? - Fred Frailey - Trains Magazine - Online Community: Forums and Blogs

But in that Washington Post story, Boardman qualifies his statement in one important respect. To cover the Northeast Corridor&#8217;s capital costs, Amtrak still needs a government subsidy, he says. That is correct. How much are capital costs, on average? For the answer to that, go back to that same link and refer to page 4 of the 2009 report titled, &#8220;Northeast Corridor State of Good Repair Spend Plan.&#8221; There, it estimates the NEC&#8217;s annual, normalized capital needs the next 15 years as $368 million for infrastructure and equipment. Last fiscal year&#8217;s NEC operating profit of $61 million covers only one-sixth of that capital need.

The Acela operates on a profit of $41 a passenger, the rest of the trains on the NEC lose money.

Amtrak Loses $32 Per Passenger - Business Insider

The NEC corridor, like most US infrastructure, has been sadly neglected. The trains are old and much rail support electronics are ancient. Rails, stations, crossings, bridges, tunnels all need work

The price of a ticket will not make up for 60 years of neglect

 

[Unkotare]

Neglect is not the source of the problem. A lack of demand is. Add an inability to achieve profitability and there ya go.

 

[rightwinger]

Neglect is not the source of the problem. A lack of demand is. Add an inability to achieve profitability and there ya go.

There are plenty of passengers on the Northeast corridor. AMTRAK loses money because Congressmen in Red States demand that passenger rail service be provided in their states

The line between San Antonio and LA loses $462 a passenger

 

[Unkotare]

Neglect is not the source of the problem. A lack of demand is. Add an inability to achieve profitability and there ya go.

There are plenty of passengers on the Northeast corridor.

No, not plenty. Not relative to costs.