It's the biggest deficit for Trump in that poll yet.
Yes he had the EXACT SAME 14 point deficit on October 10 2016 in the NBC/WSJ Poll and the EXACT SAME 14 point deficit in the Associated Press Poll on October 26 2016.
The situation is It's The Economy Stupid and until the crazy situation with DAMAGING COVID-19 Lockdowns the American Economy was doing very well. Now who are the peoples going to trust to keep the American Economy moving? Joe Biden who hasn't got a CLUE except to raise taxes and he's said he would do ANOTHER damaging Lockdown which would further damage the American Economy and lose more jobs and probably lose more jobs to China OR Donald Trump to keep the American Economy afloat and do things to encourage more job creation? Who are they going to trust on the Economy? Like I said It's The Economy Stupid. Donald Trump brought more jobs back to Michigan and Pennsylvania and Ohio since 2017, Joe Biden would destroy those jobs with another Lockdown or outsourcing to China.
One big difference is that in 2016, the number of people who were undecided was 13-15%.
Today, it’s half that.
So the runway for Trump to make up ground is much more limited today compared to the last election.
In 2016, the Democratic candidate was hated and Trump was unknown.
Now, the Democratic candidate isn’t hated and Trump is known.
Here's another Poll this is from The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express, they have been doing a Monthly Poll, The Democracy Institute is in Washington DC and they factor in a probably Trump Silent Vote:
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The poll is 1,500 LIKELY Voters and NOT REGISTERED Voters, polls of REGISTERED Voters don't count they are always wildly inaccurate:
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^^^^ The Democracy Institute CORRECTLY predicted both Trump winning in 2016 and they also predicted the BREXIT vote result.
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This on the Silent/Shy Trump Voters and also 7% of Biden voters could change their minds:
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And because Trump supporters get so much ABUSE it shows that YES they do NOT in public say they support Trump:
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The two top most important issues to those Polled are Law and Order/riots and violence and the Economy and as I previously commented It's The Economy Stupid and also I'll add considering all the riots and violence are ALL in Democrat run areas and the Democrats are Hating On The Police then I FAIL to see HOW Joe Biden could be favoured in the Law and Order category:
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US election poll: Trump BEATING Biden despite being hospitalised
DONALD TRUMP'S illness with coronavirus has not impacted his push to win a second term in the White House, an exclusive poll has revealed.www.express.co.uk
Lucy Hamilton
That firm was incredibly inaccurate in 2016.
In their last poll before the 2016 election, they said Trump was winning the popular vote by 5%.
But he lost the popular vote by 2.1%.
They said their margin of error was 2.5%, yet they were off by over 7%.
That Trump won doesn't mean their polling methodologies are accurate. It just means they were right for the wrong reasons.
Just to explain margin of error. For a poll, a common tolerance would be like 90%. So a margin of error of 2% would mean there's a 90% chance that the actual percent is in that range. It does not mean the result is certain to be in that range.
The 2.1% PV (which is a made up stat) is also heavily dependent on California. Trump would have won the PV other than for California. California had a very soft standard for voters that's hard to compare to the rest of the country.
While California is at least checking immigration documents now for a drivers license now (they were not in 2016), there are still a lot of Californians who got drivers licenses and before they became real ID compliant and can still vote