WSJ Post-Debate Poll: Biden Up by 14

It's the biggest deficit for Trump in that poll yet.

Yes he had the EXACT SAME 14 point deficit on October 10 2016 in the NBC/WSJ Poll and the EXACT SAME 14 point deficit in the Associated Press Poll on October 26 2016.

The situation is It's The Economy Stupid and until the crazy situation with DAMAGING COVID-19 Lockdowns the American Economy was doing very well. Now who are the peoples going to trust to keep the American Economy moving? Joe Biden who hasn't got a CLUE except to raise taxes and he's said he would do ANOTHER damaging Lockdown which would further damage the American Economy and lose more jobs and probably lose more jobs to China OR Donald Trump to keep the American Economy afloat and do things to encourage more job creation? Who are they going to trust on the Economy? Like I said It's The Economy Stupid. Donald Trump brought more jobs back to Michigan and Pennsylvania and Ohio since 2017, Joe Biden would destroy those jobs with another Lockdown or outsourcing to China.

One big difference is that in 2016, the number of people who were undecided was 13-15%.

Today, it’s half that.

So the runway for Trump to make up ground is much more limited today compared to the last election.

In 2016, the Democratic candidate was hated and Trump was unknown.

Now, the Democratic candidate isn’t hated and Trump is known.

Here's another Poll this is from The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express, they have been doing a Monthly Poll, The Democracy Institute is in Washington DC and they factor in a probably Trump Silent Vote:

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The poll is 1,500 LIKELY Voters and NOT REGISTERED Voters, polls of REGISTERED Voters don't count they are always wildly inaccurate:

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^^^^ The Democracy Institute CORRECTLY predicted both Trump winning in 2016 and they also predicted the BREXIT vote result.

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This on the Silent/Shy Trump Voters and also 7% of Biden voters could change their minds:

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And because Trump supporters get so much ABUSE it shows that YES they do NOT in public say they support Trump:

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The two top most important issues to those Polled are Law and Order/riots and violence and the Economy and as I previously commented It's The Economy Stupid and also I'll add considering all the riots and violence are ALL in Democrat run areas and the Democrats are Hating On The Police then I FAIL to see HOW Joe Biden could be favoured in the Law and Order category:

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Lucy Hamilton

That firm was incredibly inaccurate in 2016.

In their last poll before the 2016 election, they said Trump was winning the popular vote by 5%.


But he lost the popular vote by 2.1%.


They said their margin of error was 2.5%, yet they were off by over 7%.

That Trump won doesn't mean their polling methodologies are accurate. It just means they were right for the wrong reasons.

Just to explain margin of error. For a poll, a common tolerance would be like 90%. So a margin of error of 2% would mean there's a 90% chance that the actual percent is in that range. It does not mean the result is certain to be in that range.

The 2.1% PV (which is a made up stat) is also heavily dependent on California. Trump would have won the PV other than for California. California had a very soft standard for voters that's hard to compare to the rest of the country.

While California is at least checking immigration documents now for a drivers license now (they were not in 2016), there are still a lot of Californians who got drivers licenses and before they became real ID compliant and can still vote
 
Watch Biden jump more in the polls now that the COV-IDIOT is in the hospital after mocking people who wear masks and practice physical distancing.

That's certainly what the hate Democrat party will pitch even though most of the deaths were in blue States run by Democrats where the President has little power over the covid response. It's all Florida regulations here, Trump has virtually no say
 
Watch Biden jump more in the polls now that the COV-IDIOT is in the hospital after mocking people who wear masks and practice physical distancing.
Ya never know. It wouldn't be a surprise, of course, given how he lied to us and mocked us for trying to protect ourselves.

So he gets sick after failing to lead on safety, after yet another humiliating, nationally-televised meltdown at the debate.

But at the same time, the amount of people who are still going to vote for him already shows what trouble this country is in.
 
Watch Biden jump more in the polls now that the COV-IDIOT is in the hospital after mocking people who wear masks and practice physical distancing.
Ya never know. It wouldn't be a surprise, of course, given how he lied to us and mocked us for trying to protect ourselves.

So he gets sick after failing to lead on safety, after yet another humiliating, nationally-televised meltdown at the debate.

But at the same time, the amount of people who are still going to vote for him already shows what trouble this country is in.

Maybe you should have picked a better candidate than Biden. Ya think?

This is just your lame ass crap. You think just criticizing Trump would make anyone say, oh well, I'll have to vote for Biden then.

If you want to be remotely persuasive, you have to explain why Biden is better, not just attack Trump because you hate him. You can't because he isn't
 
I agree with the commentary below. I think this poll is a knee-jerk reaction to Trump's poor showing at the debate. I think Biden is going to win but not by 14.

Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time. ...​
Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who directed the survey with Democrat Jeff Horwitt, cautioned that the poll was conducted during an unsettled moment after the caustic presidential debate—“a shock to the system,” he called it—and could reflect a temporary reassessment of views. “The public can be taking a moment to say, ‘What did I just see, and how do I feel about it?’” he said. Mr. Trump could regain ground, Mr. McInturff said, given that “he has a history of bouncing back to some set point.” ...​
Messrs. Horwitt and McInturff said one factor was the debate, a decorum-destroying event in which the two candidates traded insults and continually talked over each other, with Mr. Trump interrupting his opponent more often. About three-quarters of voters said the event made no difference to their vote. But among the other 25%, a bigger share said the debate made them more likely to support Mr. Biden than Mr. Trump.​
While 84% of Democrats said Mr. Biden did a better job in the debate, 54% of Republicans said so of the president. Overall, half of voters said Mr. Biden performed better, with a quarter saying Mr. Trump did. Some 17% said neither candidate did well.​
Asked more broadly about the candidates’ personal qualities, voters by a two-to-one margin said Mr. Biden was better at displaying “the right temperament to be president,” 58% to 26%.​
“It is clear that the debate, and Mr. Trump’s behavior during it, reinforced the negative side of Mr. Trump personally for many respondents,” said Mr. Horwitt. He said the president “lost the American people on style more than substance.”​



Yup, proof positive that Trump lost the debate, despite the Trumpussies saying he won.
The ironic thing here is that, even if Biden wins, the Trumpsters don't have much to worry about.

Biden would just be the next Democratic President needing to spend all his time cleaning up the mess of his GOP predecessor, and won't be able to get much Marxist Hitler commie socialist Nazi stuff done.
 
The poll is statistically useless (aka fake). Left leaning voters over sampled greater than 10% and women over sampled greater than 5%.

One of these days you Dotards are gonna figure out that nobody sets out to call x number of Ds and x number of Rs x number of Indies x number of women x number of men etc etc etc. It's completely random.
 
And ... we're back to the emotional outbursts from the site's hysterical woman ...
I didn't post about you. Please stop trolling. Second request.

I've repeatedly asked you to make real arguments and not just dump your emotional nonsense that you hate Trump.

I stipulate to that you do in fact hate Trump.

If you have a reason for the hate, what is it? You offered nothing to support it other than emotional outbursts which you can't control
 
This is just your lame ass crap. You think just criticizing Trump would make anyone say, oh well, I'll have to vote for Biden then.
I didn't post about you. Please stop trolling.

As I pointed out, there are TWO candidates. That you hate one is not sufficient. You have to explain why we WOULD vote for the other. You didn't get that? Seriously?
 
The poll is statistically useless (aka fake). Left leaning voters over sampled greater than 10% and women over sampled greater than 5%.

One of these days you Dotards are gonna figure out that nobody sets out to call x number of Ds and x number of Rs x number of Indies x number of women x number of men etc etc etc. It's completely random.

It's random for people with landlines and the mobile phones they happen to have. It's not random for who answers the poll or that the people they call accurately reflect the full population.

In 2016 I was bombed with pollster calls, but I didn't answer them. Now I changed my number and haven't given called outside friends and family and they haven't found me.

How can I be part of a random sample of phone calls?
 
It's the biggest deficit for Trump in that poll yet.

Yes he had the EXACT SAME 14 point deficit on October 10 2016 in the NBC/WSJ Poll and the EXACT SAME 14 point deficit in the Associated Press Poll on October 26 2016.

The situation is It's The Economy Stupid and until the crazy situation with DAMAGING COVID-19 Lockdowns the American Economy was doing very well. Now who are the peoples going to trust to keep the American Economy moving? Joe Biden who hasn't got a CLUE except to raise taxes and he's said he would do ANOTHER damaging Lockdown which would further damage the American Economy and lose more jobs and probably lose more jobs to China OR Donald Trump to keep the American Economy afloat and do things to encourage more job creation? Who are they going to trust on the Economy? Like I said It's The Economy Stupid. Donald Trump brought more jobs back to Michigan and Pennsylvania and Ohio since 2017, Joe Biden would destroy those jobs with another Lockdown or outsourcing to China.

One big difference is that in 2016, the number of people who were undecided was 13-15%.

Today, it’s half that.

So the runway for Trump to make up ground is much more limited today compared to the last election.

In 2016, the Democratic candidate was hated and Trump was unknown.

Now, the Democratic candidate isn’t hated and Trump is known.

Here's another Poll this is from The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express, they have been doing a Monthly Poll, The Democracy Institute is in Washington DC and they factor in a probably Trump Silent Vote:

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The poll is 1,500 LIKELY Voters and NOT REGISTERED Voters, polls of REGISTERED Voters don't count they are always wildly inaccurate:

View attachment 397058

View attachment 397048
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^^^^ The Democracy Institute CORRECTLY predicted both Trump winning in 2016 and they also predicted the BREXIT vote result.

View attachment 397051

View attachment 397053
View attachment 397054

View attachment 397057

This on the Silent/Shy Trump Voters and also 7% of Biden voters could change their minds:

View attachment 397061

And because Trump supporters get so much ABUSE it shows that YES they do NOT in public say they support Trump:

View attachment 397062

The two top most important issues to those Polled are Law and Order/riots and violence and the Economy and as I previously commented It's The Economy Stupid and also I'll add considering all the riots and violence are ALL in Democrat run areas and the Democrats are Hating On The Police then I FAIL to see HOW Joe Biden could be favoured in the Law and Order category:

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Lucy Hamilton

That firm was incredibly inaccurate in 2016.

In their last poll before the 2016 election, they said Trump was winning the popular vote by 5%.


But he lost the popular vote by 2.1%.


They said their margin of error was 2.5%, yet they were off by over 7%.

That Trump won doesn't mean their polling methodologies are accurate. It just means they were right for the wrong reasons.

Just to explain margin of error. For a poll, a common tolerance would be like 90%. So a margin of error of 2% would mean there's a 90% chance that the actual percent is in that range. It does not mean the result is certain to be in that range.

The 2.1% PV (which is a made up stat) is also heavily dependent on California. Trump would have won the PV other than for California. California had a very soft standard for voters that's hard to compare to the rest of the country.

While California is at least checking immigration documents now for a drivers license now (they were not in 2016), there are still a lot of Californians who got drivers licenses and before they became real ID compliant and can still vote

Typically, a margin of error for a poll is 2.5%-4.5%, depending on the sample population. For instance, an unbiased poll with 500 respondents would have a MOE of 4.5%. For 1500 respondents, 2.5%. That's at a confidence interval of 95%. IOW, we would expect an unbiased poll to accurately represent a population within the MOE 19 times out of 20.
 
The poll is statistically useless (aka fake). Left leaning voters over sampled greater than 10% and women over sampled greater than 5%.

One of these days you Dotards are gonna figure out that nobody sets out to call x number of Ds and x number of Rs x number of Indies x number of women x number of men etc etc etc. It's completely random.

It's random for people with landlines and the mobile phones they happen to have. It's not random for who answers the poll or that the people they call accurately reflect the full population.

In 2016 I was bombed with pollster calls, but I didn't answer them. Now I changed my number and haven't given called outside friends and family and they haven't found me.

How can I be part of a random sample of phone calls?

The typical poll gets about 1000 registered voters. There are around 160 million registered voters in this country. That means your odds of getting called by any one poll are around one in 160,000.

Don't wait by the phone dummy.
 
FTR the polls at the national level were accurate in 2016. Polls forecasted Clinton to win the popular vote by 3.2%. She won by 2.1%. That's within the MOE.

Where the polls were inaccurate were at the state level. It's at the state level where they failed miserably.

For example, polls had Hillary leading in MI by 3.6%, in PA by 2.1%, and WI by 6.5%. She lost all three by 0.3%, 0.7% and 0.7% respectively.

The reason why they were so off was because at the state level, polling companies were under-sampling non-college educated whites, who voted for Trump. The reason why they were under-sampled is because non-college voters are less likely to answer the phones than college voters.

So this election, the polling companies have increased their resources in those states and most - but not all - have adjusted for the college-educated biases.

Can Trump still win? Of course he can. Can the polls all be wrong again? Of course they can. Polls are probability estimates of the future.

But polls are usually right.

Most polling is done for corporations who spend billions of dollars every year to understand their customers. They aren't stupid. They're not burning billions on things they think don't work.
 
As for all these predictions that said Hillary was 90%, 95%, 98% probability to win was because those probabilities were based on the national polls. The predictors modeled historical national trends to state levels. But those were wrong.

Nate Silver's 538.com was most bullish for Trump of all these models I saw. He had Clinton at a 70% chance of winning. That may seem like a lot but it's really not.

Put that into perspective. That's roughly the same odds as calling a coin flip correctly two out of three times. It's also roughly the probability of a 4-point favorite in the NFL winning a game. Neither are unbelievable.

Lots of people here refuse to believe polls because they didn't correctly predict the Electoral College in 2016. But that's like refusing to believe that a 4-point underdog will usually lose in the NFL. The 4-point underdog doesn't always lose. In fact, the underdog usually wins 1 out of 3 games. And nobody would always refuse to believe Vegas simply because one team that was a 4-point underdog won one game.
 
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I agree with the commentary below. I think this poll is a knee-jerk reaction to Trump's poor showing at the debate. I think Biden is going to win but not by 14.

Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time. ...​
Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who directed the survey with Democrat Jeff Horwitt, cautioned that the poll was conducted during an unsettled moment after the caustic presidential debate—“a shock to the system,” he called it—and could reflect a temporary reassessment of views. “The public can be taking a moment to say, ‘What did I just see, and how do I feel about it?’” he said. Mr. Trump could regain ground, Mr. McInturff said, given that “he has a history of bouncing back to some set point.” ...​
Messrs. Horwitt and McInturff said one factor was the debate, a decorum-destroying event in which the two candidates traded insults and continually talked over each other, with Mr. Trump interrupting his opponent more often. About three-quarters of voters said the event made no difference to their vote. But among the other 25%, a bigger share said the debate made them more likely to support Mr. Biden than Mr. Trump.​
While 84% of Democrats said Mr. Biden did a better job in the debate, 54% of Republicans said so of the president. Overall, half of voters said Mr. Biden performed better, with a quarter saying Mr. Trump did. Some 17% said neither candidate did well.​
Asked more broadly about the candidates’ personal qualities, voters by a two-to-one margin said Mr. Biden was better at displaying “the right temperament to be president,” 58% to 26%.​
“It is clear that the debate, and Mr. Trump’s behavior during it, reinforced the negative side of Mr. Trump personally for many respondents,” said Mr. Horwitt. He said the president “lost the American people on style more than substance.”​

The sad part for you Toro and your ilk, is how blind you are to the MSM bias...

Based on this alone we wouldn’t have a President Trump, how could so many so called experts be so wrong? Oh I almost forgot, Russia got him elected with a $150K worth of messages on Facebook...

I’m just reading the data.
Yeah that’s what everyone said last time...

Our MSM is complicit with the DNC, BLM, Antifa, etc..., I’m not in line with the Cuomo’s, Lemon’s, Scarborough’s, Maddow’s and Matthews of the world to mold the narrative, I’m not defending the Fox anchors as a whole either, the lies they continue to perpetuate shades the truth so much it’s despicable they get paid what they do...

Sooner or later their deceit will have an impact we cannot turn back, the American public will be so divided a Civil War will unfold...
 
Watch Biden jump more in the polls now that the COV-IDIOT is in the hospital after mocking people who wear masks and practice physical distancing.

That's certainly what the hate Democrat party will pitch even though most of the deaths were in blue States run by Democrats where the President has little power over the covid response. It's all Florida regulations here, Trump has virtually no say

You clowns need some new talking points because, I hate to tell you, the coastal states where the virus arrived, primarily from Asia and Europe via air into JFK, EWR, LGA, SFO,SEA and LAX are all blue. So OF COURSE that's where the virus boomed. But that ain't the case anymore, Bubba.


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Well, Well... Isn't that special... A poll that over samples democrats by 15% that shows Biden winning by 14%....

YAWN,,,,,,,

The sample is 45% Democrat 36% Republican. That is 9 points moron. There are more Democrats than there are Republicans in the country as a whole.

Well all be all those red states have a higher democrat registration....I thought all those racists became republican....how weird..... the us is 6% more democrat, then you add into the fact that many of the dems vote republican and it's much much closer, but hey keep thinking you have that big of a lead, I'm cool with it.

Maybe you need to read the articles you post. The Gallup poll says when you include leaners, Democrats have a 50-38 edge over Republicans. Red states have a much lower population than blue states, Plus as population increases, the Republican vote gets weaker. Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida and Texas were 60%+ for Ronald Reagan and George Bush. Now Virginia is a lean Democrat state. North Carolina and Florida have been swing states. South Carolina and Texas are lean Republican states. Georgia is up for grabs in 2020.
 
Just as a reminder, all the polls were forecasting a blow-out in the 2018 House elections, and it was the worst defeat for the Republicans in the House in 44 years. The polls underestimated the extent of the Republican's defeat.

The same people who are saying "the polls were wrong in 2016 and are wrong now" were the same ones saying "the polls were wrong in 2016 and are wrong now" in 2018.

BTW I never thought the Republicans would win The House in 2018, but I did say I thought they would keep The Senate and yes I maintain my position about the 2016 Presidential Election Polls being wrong saying that Hillary would win both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College Vote and like they did not entertain the situation in 2016 of the Silent Trump Voters that the 2016 Polls did NOT pick up they are in 2020 also ignoring the situation of the Silent Trump Voters who all these 2020 Polls are not picking up.

There were no silent Trump voters in 2016. Trump won for 2 reasons.
1. Minority voters did not turn out in large numbers and that had a profound effect in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
2. Voters hated both Clinton and Trump. Trump won that vote.

When you look at Clinton's vote totals she was weak even in states she won. Comparing Romney's vote to Clinton's vote, Romney would have won 261 electoral votes and been close in several others.

There WERE Silent Trump voters in 2016, Silent Trump voters who ALL the Polls did NOT think even existed.

I agree that Minority voters did not turn out in the numbers the Hillary Campaign thought they would, but in many Polls I have seen recently Trump still has his 11% Black Vote he got in 2016 and there was a recent Poll that said his support with Hispanics is up to 34% yes I KNOW what you will possibly respond to this, but REMEMBER I am sceptical myself about ALL Polls because ALL the Polls in 2016 were wildly inaccurate both with the Popular Vote and especially with the Electoral College Vote, Hillary did not win the PV by double digits the result was Hillary 48% Trump 46% and Hillary did not win the EC that was Trump and NO 2016 Poll that I know of showed Trump winning the EC they all seemed to show Hillary winning the PV and the EC vote.

The polls in 2020 got the popular vote correct. However the popular vote was close enough for someone else to win the electoral college. The polls in Pennsylvania were within the margin of error. They had Clinton up by 2.1 while Trump won by 0,7. In Michigan the polls were off because of the lower minority vote. In Wisconsin the polls were off.
 
The poll is statistically useless (aka fake). Left leaning voters over sampled greater than 10% and women over sampled greater than 5%.

One of these days you Dotards are gonna figure out that nobody sets out to call x number of Ds and x number of Rs x number of Indies x number of women x number of men etc etc etc. It's completely random.

No -- It's NOT random.. Because political affiliation and likelihood to vote and many other reasons. You'd be violating the basic principle of having a REPRESENTATIVE sample in statistics..

So they do go by characteristics and weight the representation of the voters. Might even choose "swing districts" only or "key districts" in a state..

But it's ALL CRAP today because polling by internet is a NON starter and calling by PHONE is even dodgy since 30% of the folks I know have mobile numbers with OTHER zip codes on them,..

The ONLY 21st survey tech that's gonna work is what Survey Monkey and several others are doing. They maintain CATALOGS of folks where their demographics and preferences and personal info is included. And for each poll -- depending on the specific question and survey methodology -- they pick REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLES from those catalogues.
 
The poll is 1,500 LIKELY Voters and NOT REGISTERED Voters, polls of REGISTERED Voters don't count they are always wildly inaccurate:

Not what the caption to the graph says., Likely voters mean REGISTERED voters who have voted in recent elections.. UNregistered voters are useless to polling a representative sample of WHO is GONNA vote..
 
I agree with the commentary below. I think this poll is a knee-jerk reaction to Trump's poor showing at the debate. I think Biden is going to win but not by 14.

Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time. ...​
Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who directed the survey with Democrat Jeff Horwitt, cautioned that the poll was conducted during an unsettled moment after the caustic presidential debate—“a shock to the system,” he called it—and could reflect a temporary reassessment of views. “The public can be taking a moment to say, ‘What did I just see, and how do I feel about it?’” he said. Mr. Trump could regain ground, Mr. McInturff said, given that “he has a history of bouncing back to some set point.” ...​
Messrs. Horwitt and McInturff said one factor was the debate, a decorum-destroying event in which the two candidates traded insults and continually talked over each other, with Mr. Trump interrupting his opponent more often. About three-quarters of voters said the event made no difference to their vote. But among the other 25%, a bigger share said the debate made them more likely to support Mr. Biden than Mr. Trump.​
While 84% of Democrats said Mr. Biden did a better job in the debate, 54% of Republicans said so of the president. Overall, half of voters said Mr. Biden performed better, with a quarter saying Mr. Trump did. Some 17% said neither candidate did well.​
Asked more broadly about the candidates’ personal qualities, voters by a two-to-one margin said Mr. Biden was better at displaying “the right temperament to be president,” 58% to 26%.​
“It is clear that the debate, and Mr. Trump’s behavior during it, reinforced the negative side of Mr. Trump personally for many respondents,” said Mr. Horwitt. He said the president “lost the American people on style more than substance.”​


I don't worry about it because if people in this country would actually vote for where the Democrat party is headed, then we deserve what we get. Many countries before have voted to bring upon their own ruin. We won't be the first

Yep, sad as it would be it would just be humans being humans and why we lost the Garden..........America is the lone power standing in the way of Russia, China and Iran....without us, the other countries around the world fall one by one.......

Russia is helping Trump. They don't fear Trump.
 

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