2024 Election: How Biden/Trump can win

citygator

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Really good visuals and write up by the New York Times if you can access it.

Basically says:

Biden will win if he takes Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin
Trump will win if he takes any of those (PA, MI, WI)


Lays out other scenarios with Biden winning GA or NV/AZ and losing a midwest state or Trump losing GA and winning some others but basically it is a 3 state race of PA, MI, WI seemingly.

Opinion | Why Biden Has a Narrower Path to the Presidency Than Trump, in 11 Maps

While polls show the race for president is tightening, Joe Biden still has a narrower and more challenging path to winning the election than Donald Trump. The reason is the Electoral College: My analysis of voter history and polling shows a map that currently favors Mr. Trump, even though recent developments in Arizona improve Mr. Biden’s chances. The Biden campaign will need to decide this summer which states to contest hardest. Our Electoral College maps below lay out the best scenarios for him and Mr. Trump.

Seven states with close results determined who won both the 2020 and the 2016 presidential elections, and those same seven states will most likely play the same battleground role this fall: three industrial states – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – and four Sun Belt states – Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.
IMG_0657.png



Trumps route has lots of options if he wins NC & GA but all he needs is PA.
IMG_0658.png



Biden needs the Midwest, if he wins PA and WI all he needs is Michigan.

IMG_0659.png
 

2024 Election Map Based On the Latest Poll​



19,777 views Apr 10, 2024
"In today’s polling average update we’re excited to debut two brand new averages in Democratic-leaning states where polls suggest they might actually be vulnerable for Joe Biden this November. We also have brand new polls updating the averages in each of the seven key battlegrounds, including a new leader in an absolutely pivotal state."
1713041835702-png.931706


More Details
 

2024 Election Map Based On the Latest Poll​



19,777 views Apr 10, 2024
"In today’s polling average update we’re excited to debut two brand new averages in Democratic-leaning states where polls suggest they might actually be vulnerable for Joe Biden this November. We also have brand new polls updating the averages in each of the seven key battlegrounds, including a new leader in an absolutely pivotal state."
1713041835702-png.931706


More Details
Yep. You flipped WI and MI. Biden would lose if that happened. WI will likely end up Biden. MI… not sure.
 
Yep. You flipped WI and MI. Biden would lose if that happened. WI will likely end up Biden. MI… not sure.
That's not me.. . . That is current polling and what the situation is forecast as it stands right now as of April 10 from;
1713286780219.png


Biden had been winning WI back in March. . . I have been following it. . then it started trending to Trump, so your claim is specious, based more on your wishes, not on the data.

All you had to do, is click more details to find out more.



I've been watching the trends now since the last week of March.
 
ooopps. My mistake. He hadn't been winning WI, even back then.
 
It was back in March. . . Trump was winning in PA, but now that one is in Biden's column.
 
That's not me.. . . That is current polling and what the situation is forecast as it stands right now as of April 10 from;
View attachment 932968

Biden had been winning WI back in March. . . I have been following it. . then it started trending to Trump, so your claim is specious, based more on your wishes, not on the data.

All you had to do, is click more details to find out more.



I've been watching the trends now since the last week of March.
Meh. Lots of the races will be close so I wont pretend I know which way some of these will go so take any of my predictions with it's intent... its just my guess. But the polls are leaning toward Biden in WI and PA these days and I suspect based on the history of the state to put Dems in governor roles they will stay Dem. Michigan is a wild card.
 
Meh. Lots of the races will be close so I wont pretend I know which way some of these will go so take any of my predictions with it's intent... its just my guess. But the polls are leaning toward Biden in WI and PA these days and I suspect based on the history of the state to put Dems in governor roles they will stay Dem. Michigan is a wild card.
Those states cheated to put Democrats in power. What part of organized massive fraud don't you get?
 
Those states cheated to put Democrats in power. What part of organized massive fraud don't you get?
This thread is about the real world where the rest of us live. The fantasy world you dwell in is irrelevant. Should I watch the discredited 2,000 Mules, or should I listen to the release of the Kraken maybe? All those people who claimed fraud are broke having been sued by the people they accused. See Fox settlement.
 
Really good visuals and write up by the New York Times if you can access it.

Basically says:

Biden will win if he takes Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin
Trump will win if he takes any of those (PA, MI, WI)


Lays out other scenarios with Biden winning GA or NV/AZ and losing a midwest state or Trump losing GA and winning some others but basically it is a 3 state race of PA, MI, WI seemingly.

Opinion | Why Biden Has a Narrower Path to the Presidency Than Trump, in 11 Maps

While polls show the race for president is tightening, Joe Biden still has a narrower and more challenging path to winning the election than Donald Trump. The reason is the Electoral College: My analysis of voter history and polling shows a map that currently favors Mr. Trump, even though recent developments in Arizona improve Mr. Biden’s chances. The Biden campaign will need to decide this summer which states to contest hardest. Our Electoral College maps below lay out the best scenarios for him and Mr. Trump.

Seven states with close results determined who won both the 2020 and the 2016 presidential elections, and those same seven states will most likely play the same battleground role this fall: three industrial states – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – and four Sun Belt states – Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.
View attachment 932955


Trumps route has lots of options if he wins NC & GA but all he needs is PA.
View attachment 932956


Biden needs the Midwest, if he wins PA and WI all he needs is Michigan.

View attachment 932957
I think Georgia flips back red. Nevada may flip red also. The GOP may screw around and lose Arizona for the 2nd time in a row.
 
This thread is about the real world where the rest of us live. The fantasy world you dwell in is irrelevant. Should I watch the discredited 2,000 Mules, or should I listen to the release of the Kraken maybe? All those people who claimed fraud are broke having been sued by the people they accused. See Fox settlement.
Fraud is very real. And a corrupt system gets corrupt results.
 

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