WSJ Post-Debate Poll: Biden Up by 14

[busybee01]

Let's think about the latest Biden +14 poll. What is the probability of this actually happening? It would mean Biden would likely win 49, or maybe even all 50 states. A Reagan like landslide.

Maybe Biden wins, maybe he loses, but I would guess the probability of him winning by 14 points nationally is near 0.

If a poll produces a result that would be impossible to actually occur, the poll is clearly flawed and should have been scrapped.

The poll does not say that Biden is going to win by 14. It says he is leading by 14 at 53-39. The RCP average shows that 10 of the 11 polls show Biden at 49% or greater. with 9 of the 10 showing Biden at 50%.

 

[busybee01]

It's the biggest deficit for Trump in that poll yet.

Biden will have a 92% chance of winning by election day.

This is 2020 not 2016.

Indeed, but neither man has changed. Trump has a record of great accomplishment, Biden has none.

Trump has no great accomplishments. At least nothing he can run on. In Texas, Cornyn is running against his opponent's tattoos.

 

[busybee01]

If Biden would win

1) It would be a stolen election.
2) These people would govern just the same way they got in power. End of the nation right there.

If Trump wins, it will be because he was able to successfully stop people from voting.

 

[Mike473]

Let's think about the latest Biden +14 poll. What is the probability of this actually happening? It would mean Biden would likely win 49, or maybe even all 50 states. A Reagan like landslide.

Maybe Biden wins, maybe he loses, but I would guess the probability of him winning by 14 points nationally is near 0.

If a poll produces a result that would be impossible to actually occur, the poll is clearly flawed and should have been scrapped.

The poll does not say that Biden is going to win by 14. It says he is leading by 14 at 53-39. The RCP average shows that 10 of the 11 polls show Biden at 49% or greater. with 9 of the 10 showing Biden at 50%.

Total propaganda. I could thrown darts at various poll margins taped to the wall and get more reliable results. It is getting totally off the rails.

 

[charwin95]

Seems like an outlier, what they had 50% democrats to 35% republicans in this poll?
View attachment 397030

You will see in the ORIGINAL thread when the Mods Merge Dr.Love's thread with it, that I posted TWO Polls from 2016 and on October 10 2016 the SAME WSJ/NBC Poll had Hillary leading 14% and that 16 days later on October 26 2016 Associated Press their Poll had Hillary leading by 14 points and that was just 12 days before the election where the result was Hillary 48% and Trump 46% and she won the Popular Vote and he won the Electoral College Vote.

Oh! Lucy .............. That is true Hillary was ahead on all polls in 2016. You are missing something big. I mean BIG TIME.....
1. Americans did not go out to vote especially the African Americans.
2. Americans thought that Trump is white shining armor in a white horse that will destroy all these bad politics and corruptions. Best for the economy.

FAST FORWARD 3 years and 11 months.
1. Economy is near collapse with a record of WORST unemployment before election as zero job creation.
2. Pathological serial liar.
3. Total failure of handling the Coronavirus crisis with 200,000 deaths and counting. Total disregard of human being.
4. Millions of millions of Americans are sufferings financially, sick, unemployment, evictions, lost of health care coverage, businesses closures permanently, job losses. Americans are scared.
5. Racist supporters a of White supremacist. And against minorities.
6. Inciting violence against his fellow Americans the democrats.
7. Very corrupt, dishonest, disgusting behavior. Operate like mafia.
8. Only catered to certain group his base of whites.
9. He has not address the issue of police brutalities, racism, no health care plan, no plan to solve the CV crisis.
10. Banning of gay and lesbian in military. LBQT community has a very large members plus friends and families.
11. HS graduate students from last 3 years that are sick of school massacres will vote in record numbers.
12. This time African Americans will come out and votes in record breaking numbers like the BLM that is sweeping this country. and spilled to other countries in support of AF racial injustice.
13. A record numbers of life time republicans endorsing Biden.
14. Very low military support.


I can ASSURE you that Trump is in very BIG trouble on top of his own problems and his health.

And none of this is true...not a single one.

You are not properly informed. TDS at the highest ...... Trump Denial Sympathizers.

 

[busybee01]

Well, Well... Isn't that special... A poll that over samples democrats by 15% that shows Biden winning by 14%....

YAWN,,,,,,,

The sample is 45% Democrat 36% Republican. That is 9 points moron. There are more Democrats than there are Republicans in the country as a whole.

Political party strength in U.S. states - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Well all be all those red states have a higher democrat registration....I thought all those racists became republican....how weird..... the us is 6% more democrat, then you add into the fact that many of the dems vote republican and it's much much closer, but hey keep thinking you have that big of a lead, I'm cool with it.

Maybe you need to read the articles you post. The Gallup poll says when you include leaners, Democrats have a 50-38 edge over Republicans. Red states have a much lower population than blue states, Plus as population increases, the Republican vote gets weaker. Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida and Texas were 60%+ for Ronald Reagan and George Bush. Now Virginia is a lean Democrat state. North Carolina and Florida have been swing states. South Carolina and Texas are lean Republican states. Georgia is up for grabs in 2020.

IF you look Louisiana has a +11 D registtration advantage, did that just happend, demographics? OR something else?

This is a national poll not a Louisiana poll.

No shit, but it gets complicated.....doesnt it?
Polls are unreliable....there is not a 9 point D registration over R in the US and we dont do popular vote, so it doesnt work that way.

Except when they say what you want them to say. The popular vote can pull the electoral college with it. Trump won the electoral college by narrowly winning in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. If Biden wins by 7-10 points, there is no way he can win the electoral college.

 

[busybee01]

Let's think about the latest Biden +14 poll. What is the probability of this actually happening? It would mean Biden would likely win 49, or maybe even all 50 states. A Reagan like landslide.

Maybe Biden wins, maybe he loses, but I would guess the probability of him winning by 14 points nationally is near 0.

If a poll produces a result that would be impossible to actually occur, the poll is clearly flawed and should have been scrapped.

The poll does not say that Biden is going to win by 14. It says he is leading by 14 at 53-39. The RCP average shows that 10 of the 11 polls show Biden at 49% or greater. with 9 of the 10 showing Biden at 50%.

Total propaganda. I could thrown darts at various poll margins taped to the wall and get more reliable results. It is getting totally off the rails.

So you say. You are the one who is off the rails because you know you are losing.

 

[buckeye45_73]

Seems like an outlier, what they had 50% democrats to 35% republicans in this poll?
View attachment 397030

You will see in the ORIGINAL thread when the Mods Merge Dr.Love's thread with it, that I posted TWO Polls from 2016 and on October 10 2016 the SAME WSJ/NBC Poll had Hillary leading 14% and that 16 days later on October 26 2016 Associated Press their Poll had Hillary leading by 14 points and that was just 12 days before the election where the result was Hillary 48% and Trump 46% and she won the Popular Vote and he won the Electoral College Vote.

Oh! Lucy .............. That is true Hillary was ahead on all polls in 2016. You are missing something big. I mean BIG TIME.....
1. Americans did not go out to vote especially the African Americans.
2. Americans thought that Trump is white shining armor in a white horse that will destroy all these bad politics and corruptions. Best for the economy.

FAST FORWARD 3 years and 11 months.
1. Economy is near collapse with a record of WORST unemployment before election as zero job creation.
2. Pathological serial liar.
3. Total failure of handling the Coronavirus crisis with 200,000 deaths and counting. Total disregard of human being.
4. Millions of millions of Americans are sufferings financially, sick, unemployment, evictions, lost of health care coverage, businesses closures permanently, job losses. Americans are scared.
5. Racist supporters a of White supremacist. And against minorities.
6. Inciting violence against his fellow Americans the democrats.
7. Very corrupt, dishonest, disgusting behavior. Operate like mafia.
8. Only catered to certain group his base of whites.
9. He has not address the issue of police brutalities, racism, no health care plan, no plan to solve the CV crisis.
10. Banning of gay and lesbian in military. LBQT community has a very large members plus friends and families.
11. HS graduate students from last 3 years that are sick of school massacres will vote in record numbers.
12. This time African Americans will come out and votes in record breaking numbers like the BLM that is sweeping this country. and spilled to other countries in support of AF racial injustice.
13. A record numbers of life time republicans endorsing Biden.
14. Very low military support.


I can ASSURE you that Trump is in very BIG trouble on top of his own problems and his health.

And none of this is true...not a single one.

You are not properly informed. TDS at the highest ...... Trump Denial Sympathizers.

Lets take one
10. Banning of gay and lesbian in military. LBQT community has a very large members plus friends and families.

Where is this from?

 

[buckeye45_73]

Well, Well... Isn't that special... A poll that over samples democrats by 15% that shows Biden winning by 14%....

YAWN,,,,,,,

The sample is 45% Democrat 36% Republican. That is 9 points moron. There are more Democrats than there are Republicans in the country as a whole.

Political party strength in U.S. states - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Well all be all those red states have a higher democrat registration....I thought all those racists became republican....how weird..... the us is 6% more democrat, then you add into the fact that many of the dems vote republican and it's much much closer, but hey keep thinking you have that big of a lead, I'm cool with it.

Maybe you need to read the articles you post. The Gallup poll says when you include leaners, Democrats have a 50-38 edge over Republicans. Red states have a much lower population than blue states, Plus as population increases, the Republican vote gets weaker. Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida and Texas were 60%+ for Ronald Reagan and George Bush. Now Virginia is a lean Democrat state. North Carolina and Florida have been swing states. South Carolina and Texas are lean Republican states. Georgia is up for grabs in 2020.

IF you look Louisiana has a +11 D registtration advantage, did that just happend, demographics? OR something else?

This is a national poll not a Louisiana poll.

No shit, but it gets complicated.....doesnt it?
Polls are unreliable....there is not a 9 point D registration over R in the US and we dont do popular vote, so it doesnt work that way.

Except when they say what you want them to say. The popular vote can pull the electoral college with it. Trump won the electoral college by narrowly winning in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. If Biden wins by 7-10 points, there is no way he can win the electoral college.

Well there is a way, but you really think he's going to win by 7-10 points?

 

[basquebromance]

"if you stay ready, you ain't gotta get ready, and that is how I run my life" - Trump on how he prepares for debates

 

[lennypartiv]

Most of Trump's supporters rely heavily on SS and Medicare.
Yet they rail against "socialism."
I'll leave it to you to see the irony.

And if we got rid of wasteful programs like Social Security and Medicare, there would be zero Dems and zero Republicans using those programs to waste our tax dollars.

 

[Claudette]

Polls are like women. You can find any kind that will do or say anything you want if you look hard enough.

Polls are for fools.

In 2016 every poll, pundit and talking head told America that Hitlery would be our next POTUS.

Surprise.

Anyone who takes polls seriously is dumber than a box of rocks.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Watch Biden jump more in the polls now that the COV-IDIOT is in the hospital after mocking people who wear masks and practice physical distancing.

That's certainly what the hate Democrat party will pitch even though most of the deaths were in blue States run by Democrats where the President has little power over the covid response. It's all Florida regulations here, Trump has virtually no say

Yes, most conservatives are truly this stupid.

 

[busybee01]

Polls are like women. You can find any kind that will do or say anything you want if you look hard enough.

Polls are for fools.

In 2016 every poll, pundit and talking head told America that Hitlery would be our next POTUS.

Surprise.

Anyone who takes polls seriously is dumber than a box of rocks.

You are the one who is dumber than rocks. The polls were dead on in 2018 except for Rasmussen who got nothing right. You also fain to recognize the differences between 2016 and 2020.

 

[Claudette]

Polls are like women. You can find any kind that will do or say anything you want if you look hard enough.

Polls are for fools.

In 2016 every poll, pundit and talking head told America that Hitlery would be our next POTUS.

Surprise.

Anyone who takes polls seriously is dumber than a box of rocks.

You are the one who is dumber than rocks. The polls were dead on in 2018 except for Rasmussen who got nothing right. You also fain to recognize the differences between 2016 and 2020.

Bullshit. Everyone considered the polls in 2016 to be dead on.

Surprise.

Anyone who believes polls is dumber than a box of rocks and that includes your stupid ass.

 

[Toro]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election

You do realize I could write "Toro sucks underage rat dicks" in wikipedia.... right?

You probably don't realize that. Fucking idiot.

No it doesn’t.

And the data comes from the FEC.

You should know these things.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

The poll is statistically useless (aka fake). Left leaning voters over sampled greater than 10% and women over sampled greater than 5%.

One of these days you Dotards are gonna figure out that nobody sets out to call x number of Ds and x number of Rs x number of Indies x number of women x number of men etc etc etc. It's completely random.

No -- It's NOT random.. Because political affiliation and likelihood to vote and many other reasons. You'd be violating the basic principle of having a REPRESENTATIVE sample in statistics..

So they do go by characteristics and weight the representation of the voters. Might even choose "swing districts" only or "key districts" in a state..

But it's ALL CRAP today because polling by internet is a NON starter and calling by PHONE is even dodgy since 30% of the folks I know have mobile numbers with OTHER zip codes on them,..

The ONLY 21st survey tech that's gonna work is what Survey Monkey and several others are doing. They maintain CATALOGS of folks where their demographics and preferences and personal info is included. And for each poll -- depending on the specific question and survey methodology -- they pick REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLES from those catalogues.

Hmmm, that's not what I've been reading.

How are people selected for your polls?​

Once numbers are selected through random digit dialing, the process of selecting respondents is different for landline and cellphone numbers. When interviewers reach someone on a landline phone, they randomly ask half the sample if they could speak with “the youngest male, 18 years of age or older, who is now at home” and the other half of the sample to speak with “the youngest female, 18 years of age or older, who is now at home.” If there is no eligible person of the requested gender at home, interviewers ask to speak with the youngest adult of the opposite gender, who is now at home. This method of selecting respondents within each household improves participation among young people who are often more difficult to interview than older people because of their lifestyles. Unlike a landline phone, a cellphone is assumed in Pew Research Center polls to be a personal device. This means that, for those in the cell sample, interviewers ask if the person who answers the cellphone is 18 years of age or older to determine if the person is eligible to complete the survey.​

Frequently Asked Questions

Why am I never asked to take a poll? You have roughly the same chance of being polled as anyone else living in the United States. This chance, however, is

www.pewresearch.org

That's how people ARE SCREENED for polls.. They ask you LEAD questions to determine IF you're "representive" of the people they are looking for and hung up with you if you aren't.. So -- it's misleading to TELL PEOPLE that polls are "random sampled"... They are not..

And the Survey Monkey kind of technique is more reliable if the catalogues are LARGE.. Commercial polling like Nielsen for TV/Radio has done "catalogs" for DECADES -- because they KNOW those people ARE responsive and reliable from their info on PREVIOUS polls...

Only way to DO 21st century national polling.

And Pew is fucked up if they ALWAYS select for "the YOUNGEST member of the household"... THERE'S a bias right there in their "representative sample"...

And if they ALLOW cell phone screenings -- they have NO FUCKING IDEA what STATE that phone is actually lives in..,. Another mistake..

It's called manipulation....these idiot pollsters practice it and idiots buy into it

 

[flacaltenn]

The poll is statistically useless (aka fake). Left leaning voters over sampled greater than 10% and women over sampled greater than 5%.

One of these days you Dotards are gonna figure out that nobody sets out to call x number of Ds and x number of Rs x number of Indies x number of women x number of men etc etc etc. It's completely random.

No -- It's NOT random.. Because political affiliation and likelihood to vote and many other reasons. You'd be violating the basic principle of having a REPRESENTATIVE sample in statistics..

So they do go by characteristics and weight the representation of the voters. Might even choose "swing districts" only or "key districts" in a state..

But it's ALL CRAP today because polling by internet is a NON starter and calling by PHONE is even dodgy since 30% of the folks I know have mobile numbers with OTHER zip codes on them,..

The ONLY 21st survey tech that's gonna work is what Survey Monkey and several others are doing. They maintain CATALOGS of folks where their demographics and preferences and personal info is included. And for each poll -- depending on the specific question and survey methodology -- they pick REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLES from those catalogues.

Hmmm, that's not what I've been reading.

How are people selected for your polls?​

Once numbers are selected through random digit dialing, the process of selecting respondents is different for landline and cellphone numbers. When interviewers reach someone on a landline phone, they randomly ask half the sample if they could speak with “the youngest male, 18 years of age or older, who is now at home” and the other half of the sample to speak with “the youngest female, 18 years of age or older, who is now at home.” If there is no eligible person of the requested gender at home, interviewers ask to speak with the youngest adult of the opposite gender, who is now at home. This method of selecting respondents within each household improves participation among young people who are often more difficult to interview than older people because of their lifestyles. Unlike a landline phone, a cellphone is assumed in Pew Research Center polls to be a personal device. This means that, for those in the cell sample, interviewers ask if the person who answers the cellphone is 18 years of age or older to determine if the person is eligible to complete the survey.​

Frequently Asked Questions

Why am I never asked to take a poll? You have roughly the same chance of being polled as anyone else living in the United States. This chance, however, is

www.pewresearch.org

That's how people ARE SCREENED for polls.. They ask you LEAD questions to determine IF you're "representive" of the people they are looking for and hung up with you if you aren't.. So -- it's misleading to TELL PEOPLE that polls are "random sampled"... They are not..

And the Survey Monkey kind of technique is more reliable if the catalogues are LARGE.. Commercial polling like Nielsen for TV/Radio has done "catalogs" for DECADES -- because they KNOW those people ARE responsive and reliable from their info on PREVIOUS polls...

Only way to DO 21st century national polling.

And Pew is fucked up if they ALWAYS select for "the YOUNGEST member of the household"... THERE'S a bias right there in their "representative sample"...

And if they ALLOW cell phone screenings -- they have NO FUCKING IDEA what STATE that phone is actually lives in..,. Another mistake..

I don't know how else one would define "random digit dialing" other than that the process is indeed RANDOM.

But you being selected to be entered INTO the poll -- is NOT just the chance of random dial.. Being CALLED doesn't mean you're who they are looking for to take THAT poll.....

 

[JimBowie1958]

It's called manipulation....these idiot pollsters practice it and idiots buy into it

 

[lennypartiv]

The poll does not say that Biden is going to win by 14. It says he is leading by 14 at 53-39. The RCP average shows that 10 of the 11 polls show Biden at 49% or greater. with 9 of the 10 showing Biden at 50%.

These have to be fake.