WSJ Post-Debate Poll: Biden Up by 14

[SassyIrishLass]

It’s starting to look tough for Mr. Trump.

New poll by the highly-rated NBC/Wall Street Journal pollster (A minus FiveThirtyEight rating) has Biden up 53 to 39 percent among polled registered voters. This is an 8-point uptick for Biden since their prior poll.

As of a few minutes ago, this poll is not yet reflected in FiveThirtyEight’s compilation.

Highlights:

The biggest declines for Trump in the poll come from seniors (who are now backing Biden by a 62 percent-to-35 percent margin) and suburban women (58 percent to 33 percent).
And men 50 years and older moved from a 13-point advantage for Trump in the pre-debate NBC News/WSJ poll, to a 1-point advantage for Biden in this latest poll.

Biden's national lead over Trump jumps to 14 points after debate in new NBC News/WSJ poll

Joe Biden's lead has nearly doubled since Tuesday's debate, with voters saying by 2-to-1 that he has the better temperament to be president.

www.nbcnews.com

Highly rated by you dumbfucks that bought into the crap in 2016? Lol

 

[busybee01]

I agree with the commentary below. I think this poll is a knee-jerk reaction to Trump's poor showing at the debate. I think Biden is going to win but not by 14.

Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time. ...​

​

Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who directed the survey with Democrat Jeff Horwitt, cautioned that the poll was conducted during an unsettled moment after the caustic presidential debate—“a shock to the system,” he called it—and could reflect a temporary reassessment of views. “The public can be taking a moment to say, ‘What did I just see, and how do I feel about it?’” he said. Mr. Trump could regain ground, Mr. McInturff said, given that “he has a history of bouncing back to some set point.” ...​

​

Messrs. Horwitt and McInturff said one factor was the debate, a decorum-destroying event in which the two candidates traded insults and continually talked over each other, with Mr. Trump interrupting his opponent more often. About three-quarters of voters said the event made no difference to their vote. But among the other 25%, a bigger share said the debate made them more likely to support Mr. Biden than Mr. Trump.​

​

While 84% of Democrats said Mr. Biden did a better job in the debate, 54% of Republicans said so of the president. Overall, half of voters said Mr. Biden performed better, with a quarter saying Mr. Trump did. Some 17% said neither candidate did well.​

​

Asked more broadly about the candidates’ personal qualities, voters by a two-to-one margin said Mr. Biden was better at displaying “the right temperament to be president,” 58% to 26%.​

​

“It is clear that the debate, and Mr. Trump’s behavior during it, reinforced the negative side of Mr. Trump personally for many respondents,” said Mr. Horwitt. He said the president “lost the American people on style more than substance.”​

Biden Scores 14-Point Lead Over Trump in Poll After Debate

President Trump is drawing his weakest voter support of the year following Tuesday’s debate with former Vice President Joe Biden, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

www.wsj.com

The poll is statistically useless (aka fake). Left leaning voters over sampled greater than 10% and women over sampled greater than 5%.

This is a critical time....they need to suppress Trump supporters who are enraged at the democrat party, eager to help get "The Original AOC, " on the Supreme Court, and understand that the democrat party plans to take over the country if they win.....

It is the Republican Party who is trying to take over the country. For example, they couldn't legislatively get rid of the ACA so they are trying to use the courts to get rid of it.

 

[2aguy]

I agree with the commentary below. I think this poll is a knee-jerk reaction to Trump's poor showing at the debate. I think Biden is going to win but not by 14.

Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time. ...​

​

Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who directed the survey with Democrat Jeff Horwitt, cautioned that the poll was conducted during an unsettled moment after the caustic presidential debate—“a shock to the system,” he called it—and could reflect a temporary reassessment of views. “The public can be taking a moment to say, ‘What did I just see, and how do I feel about it?’” he said. Mr. Trump could regain ground, Mr. McInturff said, given that “he has a history of bouncing back to some set point.” ...​

​

Messrs. Horwitt and McInturff said one factor was the debate, a decorum-destroying event in which the two candidates traded insults and continually talked over each other, with Mr. Trump interrupting his opponent more often. About three-quarters of voters said the event made no difference to their vote. But among the other 25%, a bigger share said the debate made them more likely to support Mr. Biden than Mr. Trump.​

​

While 84% of Democrats said Mr. Biden did a better job in the debate, 54% of Republicans said so of the president. Overall, half of voters said Mr. Biden performed better, with a quarter saying Mr. Trump did. Some 17% said neither candidate did well.​

​

Asked more broadly about the candidates’ personal qualities, voters by a two-to-one margin said Mr. Biden was better at displaying “the right temperament to be president,” 58% to 26%.​

​

“It is clear that the debate, and Mr. Trump’s behavior during it, reinforced the negative side of Mr. Trump personally for many respondents,” said Mr. Horwitt. He said the president “lost the American people on style more than substance.”​

Biden Scores 14-Point Lead Over Trump in Poll After Debate

President Trump is drawing his weakest voter support of the year following Tuesday’s debate with former Vice President Joe Biden, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

www.wsj.com

The poll is statistically useless (aka fake). Left leaning voters over sampled greater than 10% and women over sampled greater than 5%.

This is a critical time....they need to suppress Trump supporters who are enraged at the democrat party, eager to help get "The Original AOC, " on the Supreme Court, and understand that the democrat party plans to take over the country if they win.....

It is the Republican Party who is trying to take over the country. For example, they couldn't legislatively get rid of the ACA so they are trying to use the courts to get rid of it.

The ACA is unConstitutional.....

 

[DrLove]

The poll is statistically useless (aka fake). Left leaning voters over sampled greater than 10% and women over sampled greater than 5%.

One of these days you Dotards are gonna figure out that nobody sets out to call x number of Ds and x number of Rs x number of Indies x number of women x number of men etc etc etc. It's completely random.

No -- It's NOT random.. Because political affiliation and likelihood to vote and many other reasons. You'd be violating the basic principle of having a REPRESENTATIVE sample in statistics..

So they do go by characteristics and weight the representation of the voters. Might even choose "swing districts" only or "key districts" in a state..

But it's ALL CRAP today because polling by internet is a NON starter and calling by PHONE is even dodgy since 30% of the folks I know have mobile numbers with OTHER zip codes on them,..

The ONLY 21st survey tech that's gonna work is what Survey Monkey and several others are doing. They maintain CATALOGS of folks where their demographics and preferences and personal info is included. And for each poll -- depending on the specific question and survey methodology -- they pick REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLES from those catalogues.

Hmmm, that's not what I've been reading.

How are people selected for your polls?​

Once numbers are selected through random digit dialing, the process of selecting respondents is different for landline and cellphone numbers. When interviewers reach someone on a landline phone, they randomly ask half the sample if they could speak with “the youngest male, 18 years of age or older, who is now at home” and the other half of the sample to speak with “the youngest female, 18 years of age or older, who is now at home.” If there is no eligible person of the requested gender at home, interviewers ask to speak with the youngest adult of the opposite gender, who is now at home. This method of selecting respondents within each household improves participation among young people who are often more difficult to interview than older people because of their lifestyles. Unlike a landline phone, a cellphone is assumed in Pew Research Center polls to be a personal device. This means that, for those in the cell sample, interviewers ask if the person who answers the cellphone is 18 years of age or older to determine if the person is eligible to complete the survey.​

Frequently Asked Questions

Why am I never asked to take a poll? You have roughly the same chance of being polled as anyone else living in the United States. This chance, however, is

www.pewresearch.org

 

[busybee01]

Watch Biden jump more in the polls now that the COV-IDIOT is in the hospital after mocking people who wear masks and practice physical distancing.

Ya never know. It wouldn't be a surprise, of course, given how he lied to us and mocked us for trying to protect ourselves.

So he gets sick after failing to lead on safety, after yet another humiliating, nationally-televised meltdown at the debate.

But at the same time, the amount of people who are still going to vote for him already shows what trouble this country is in.

Maybe you should have picked a better candidate than Biden. Ya think?

This is just your lame ass crap. You think just criticizing Trump would make anyone say, oh well, I'll have to vote for Biden then.

If you want to be remotely persuasive, you have to explain why Biden is better, not just attack Trump because you hate him. You can't because he isn't

We have seen a complete failure in Trump's coronavirus policies. A complete failure of Trump to unite the country and a complete failure on racial issues. Biden can't be any worse.

 

[busybee01]

I agree with the commentary below. I think this poll is a knee-jerk reaction to Trump's poor showing at the debate. I think Biden is going to win but not by 14.

Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time. ...​

​

Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who directed the survey with Democrat Jeff Horwitt, cautioned that the poll was conducted during an unsettled moment after the caustic presidential debate—“a shock to the system,” he called it—and could reflect a temporary reassessment of views. “The public can be taking a moment to say, ‘What did I just see, and how do I feel about it?’” he said. Mr. Trump could regain ground, Mr. McInturff said, given that “he has a history of bouncing back to some set point.” ...​

​

Messrs. Horwitt and McInturff said one factor was the debate, a decorum-destroying event in which the two candidates traded insults and continually talked over each other, with Mr. Trump interrupting his opponent more often. About three-quarters of voters said the event made no difference to their vote. But among the other 25%, a bigger share said the debate made them more likely to support Mr. Biden than Mr. Trump.​

​

While 84% of Democrats said Mr. Biden did a better job in the debate, 54% of Republicans said so of the president. Overall, half of voters said Mr. Biden performed better, with a quarter saying Mr. Trump did. Some 17% said neither candidate did well.​

​

Asked more broadly about the candidates’ personal qualities, voters by a two-to-one margin said Mr. Biden was better at displaying “the right temperament to be president,” 58% to 26%.​

​

“It is clear that the debate, and Mr. Trump’s behavior during it, reinforced the negative side of Mr. Trump personally for many respondents,” said Mr. Horwitt. He said the president “lost the American people on style more than substance.”​

Biden Scores 14-Point Lead Over Trump in Poll After Debate

President Trump is drawing his weakest voter support of the year following Tuesday’s debate with former Vice President Joe Biden, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

www.wsj.com

The poll is statistically useless (aka fake). Left leaning voters over sampled greater than 10% and women over sampled greater than 5%.

This is a critical time....they need to suppress Trump supporters who are enraged at the democrat party, eager to help get "The Original AOC, " on the Supreme Court, and understand that the democrat party plans to take over the country if they win.....

It is the Republican Party who is trying to take over the country. For example, they couldn't legislatively get rid of the ACA so they are trying to use the courts to get rid of it.

The ACA is unConstitutional.....

No it is not. The government can regulate the insurance industry. Tell us what part of the Constitution it violates.

 

[2aguy]

I agree with the commentary below. I think this poll is a knee-jerk reaction to Trump's poor showing at the debate. I think Biden is going to win but not by 14.

Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time. ...​

​

Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who directed the survey with Democrat Jeff Horwitt, cautioned that the poll was conducted during an unsettled moment after the caustic presidential debate—“a shock to the system,” he called it—and could reflect a temporary reassessment of views. “The public can be taking a moment to say, ‘What did I just see, and how do I feel about it?’” he said. Mr. Trump could regain ground, Mr. McInturff said, given that “he has a history of bouncing back to some set point.” ...​

​

Messrs. Horwitt and McInturff said one factor was the debate, a decorum-destroying event in which the two candidates traded insults and continually talked over each other, with Mr. Trump interrupting his opponent more often. About three-quarters of voters said the event made no difference to their vote. But among the other 25%, a bigger share said the debate made them more likely to support Mr. Biden than Mr. Trump.​

​

While 84% of Democrats said Mr. Biden did a better job in the debate, 54% of Republicans said so of the president. Overall, half of voters said Mr. Biden performed better, with a quarter saying Mr. Trump did. Some 17% said neither candidate did well.​

​

Asked more broadly about the candidates’ personal qualities, voters by a two-to-one margin said Mr. Biden was better at displaying “the right temperament to be president,” 58% to 26%.​

​

“It is clear that the debate, and Mr. Trump’s behavior during it, reinforced the negative side of Mr. Trump personally for many respondents,” said Mr. Horwitt. He said the president “lost the American people on style more than substance.”​

Biden Scores 14-Point Lead Over Trump in Poll After Debate

President Trump is drawing his weakest voter support of the year following Tuesday’s debate with former Vice President Joe Biden, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

www.wsj.com

The poll is statistically useless (aka fake). Left leaning voters over sampled greater than 10% and women over sampled greater than 5%.

This is a critical time....they need to suppress Trump supporters who are enraged at the democrat party, eager to help get "The Original AOC, " on the Supreme Court, and understand that the democrat party plans to take over the country if they win.....

It is the Republican Party who is trying to take over the country. For example, they couldn't legislatively get rid of the ACA so they are trying to use the courts to get rid of it.

The ACA is unConstitutional.....

No it is not. The government can regulate the insurance industry. Tell us what part of the Constitution it violates.

That isn't what it did, twit.....it forced people to buy a product.....that is against the Constitution........the 1st, and 10th to be specific.....

 

[flacaltenn]

The poll is statistically useless (aka fake). Left leaning voters over sampled greater than 10% and women over sampled greater than 5%.

One of these days you Dotards are gonna figure out that nobody sets out to call x number of Ds and x number of Rs x number of Indies x number of women x number of men etc etc etc. It's completely random.

No -- It's NOT random.. Because political affiliation and likelihood to vote and many other reasons. You'd be violating the basic principle of having a REPRESENTATIVE sample in statistics..

So they do go by characteristics and weight the representation of the voters. Might even choose "swing districts" only or "key districts" in a state..

But it's ALL CRAP today because polling by internet is a NON starter and calling by PHONE is even dodgy since 30% of the folks I know have mobile numbers with OTHER zip codes on them,..

The ONLY 21st survey tech that's gonna work is what Survey Monkey and several others are doing. They maintain CATALOGS of folks where their demographics and preferences and personal info is included. And for each poll -- depending on the specific question and survey methodology -- they pick REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLES from those catalogues.

Hmmm, that's not what I've been reading.

How are people selected for your polls?​

Once numbers are selected through random digit dialing, the process of selecting respondents is different for landline and cellphone numbers. When interviewers reach someone on a landline phone, they randomly ask half the sample if they could speak with “the youngest male, 18 years of age or older, who is now at home” and the other half of the sample to speak with “the youngest female, 18 years of age or older, who is now at home.” If there is no eligible person of the requested gender at home, interviewers ask to speak with the youngest adult of the opposite gender, who is now at home. This method of selecting respondents within each household improves participation among young people who are often more difficult to interview than older people because of their lifestyles. Unlike a landline phone, a cellphone is assumed in Pew Research Center polls to be a personal device. This means that, for those in the cell sample, interviewers ask if the person who answers the cellphone is 18 years of age or older to determine if the person is eligible to complete the survey.​

Frequently Asked Questions

Why am I never asked to take a poll? You have roughly the same chance of being polled as anyone else living in the United States. This chance, however, is

www.pewresearch.org

That's how people ARE SCREENED for polls.. They ask you LEAD questions to determine IF you're "representive" of the people they are looking for and hung up with you if you aren't.. So -- it's misleading to TELL PEOPLE that polls are "random sampled"... They are not..

And the Survey Monkey kind of technique is more reliable if the catalogues are LARGE.. Commercial polling like Nielsen for TV/Radio has done "catalogs" for DECADES -- because they KNOW those people ARE responsive and reliable from their info on PREVIOUS polls...

Only way to DO 21st century national polling.

And Pew is fucked up if they ALWAYS select for "the YOUNGEST member of the household"... THERE'S a bias right there in their "representative sample"...

And if they ALLOW cell phone screenings -- they have NO FUCKING IDEA what STATE that phone is actually lives in..,. Another mistake..

 

[DrLove]

The poll is statistically useless (aka fake). Left leaning voters over sampled greater than 10% and women over sampled greater than 5%.

One of these days you Dotards are gonna figure out that nobody sets out to call x number of Ds and x number of Rs x number of Indies x number of women x number of men etc etc etc. It's completely random.

No -- It's NOT random.. Because political affiliation and likelihood to vote and many other reasons. You'd be violating the basic principle of having a REPRESENTATIVE sample in statistics..

So they do go by characteristics and weight the representation of the voters. Might even choose "swing districts" only or "key districts" in a state..

But it's ALL CRAP today because polling by internet is a NON starter and calling by PHONE is even dodgy since 30% of the folks I know have mobile numbers with OTHER zip codes on them,..

The ONLY 21st survey tech that's gonna work is what Survey Monkey and several others are doing. They maintain CATALOGS of folks where their demographics and preferences and personal info is included. And for each poll -- depending on the specific question and survey methodology -- they pick REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLES from those catalogues.

Hmmm, that's not what I've been reading.

How are people selected for your polls?​

Once numbers are selected through random digit dialing, the process of selecting respondents is different for landline and cellphone numbers. When interviewers reach someone on a landline phone, they randomly ask half the sample if they could speak with “the youngest male, 18 years of age or older, who is now at home” and the other half of the sample to speak with “the youngest female, 18 years of age or older, who is now at home.” If there is no eligible person of the requested gender at home, interviewers ask to speak with the youngest adult of the opposite gender, who is now at home. This method of selecting respondents within each household improves participation among young people who are often more difficult to interview than older people because of their lifestyles. Unlike a landline phone, a cellphone is assumed in Pew Research Center polls to be a personal device. This means that, for those in the cell sample, interviewers ask if the person who answers the cellphone is 18 years of age or older to determine if the person is eligible to complete the survey.​

Frequently Asked Questions

Why am I never asked to take a poll? You have roughly the same chance of being polled as anyone else living in the United States. This chance, however, is

www.pewresearch.org

That's how people ARE SCREENED for polls.. They ask you LEAD questions to determine IF you're "representive" of the people they are looking for and hung up with you if you aren't.. So -- it's misleading to TELL PEOPLE that polls are "random sampled"... They are not..

And the Survey Monkey kind of technique is more reliable if the catalogues are LARGE.. Commercial polling like Nielsen for TV/Radio has done "catalogs" for DECADES -- because they KNOW those people ARE responsive and reliable from their info on PREVIOUS polls...

Only way to DO 21st century national polling.

And Pew is fucked up if they ALWAYS select for "the YOUNGEST member of the household"... THERE'S a bias right there in their "representative sample"...

And if they ALLOW cell phone screenings -- they have NO FUCKING IDEA what STATE that phone is actually lives in..,. Another mistake..

I don't know how else one would define "random digit dialing" other than that the process is indeed RANDOM.

 

[Blaine Sweeter]

 

[Blaine Sweeter]

The poll is statistically useless (aka fake). Left leaning voters over sampled greater than 10% and women over sampled greater than 5%.

One of these days you Dotards are gonna figure out that nobody sets out to call x number of Ds and x number of Rs x number of Indies x number of women x number of men etc etc etc. It's completely random.

No -- It's NOT random.. Because political affiliation and likelihood to vote and many other reasons. You'd be violating the basic principle of having a REPRESENTATIVE sample in statistics..

So they do go by characteristics and weight the representation of the voters. Might even choose "swing districts" only or "key districts" in a state..

But it's ALL CRAP today because polling by internet is a NON starter and calling by PHONE is even dodgy since 30% of the folks I know have mobile numbers with OTHER zip codes on them,..

The ONLY 21st survey tech that's gonna work is what Survey Monkey and several others are doing. They maintain CATALOGS of folks where their demographics and preferences and personal info is included. And for each poll -- depending on the specific question and survey methodology -- they pick REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLES from those catalogues.

Hmmm, that's not what I've been reading.

How are people selected for your polls?​

Once numbers are selected through random digit dialing, the process of selecting respondents is different for landline and cellphone numbers. When interviewers reach someone on a landline phone, they randomly ask half the sample if they could speak with “the youngest male, 18 years of age or older, who is now at home” and the other half of the sample to speak with “the youngest female, 18 years of age or older, who is now at home.” If there is no eligible person of the requested gender at home, interviewers ask to speak with the youngest adult of the opposite gender, who is now at home. This method of selecting respondents within each household improves participation among young people who are often more difficult to interview than older people because of their lifestyles. Unlike a landline phone, a cellphone is assumed in Pew Research Center polls to be a personal device. This means that, for those in the cell sample, interviewers ask if the person who answers the cellphone is 18 years of age or older to determine if the person is eligible to complete the survey.​

Frequently Asked Questions

Why am I never asked to take a poll? You have roughly the same chance of being polled as anyone else living in the United States. This chance, however, is

www.pewresearch.org

That's how people ARE SCREENED for polls.. They ask you LEAD questions to determine IF you're "representive" of the people they are looking for and hung up with you if you aren't.. So -- it's misleading to TELL PEOPLE that polls are "random sampled"... They are not..

And the Survey Monkey kind of technique is more reliable if the catalogues are LARGE.. Commercial polling like Nielsen for TV/Radio has done "catalogs" for DECADES -- because they KNOW those people ARE responsive and reliable from their info on PREVIOUS polls...

Only way to DO 21st century national polling.

And Pew is fucked up if they ALWAYS select for "the YOUNGEST member of the household"... THERE'S a bias right there in their "representative sample"...

And if they ALLOW cell phone screenings -- they have NO FUCKING IDEA what STATE that phone is actually lives in..,. Another mistake..

Nice opinion piece.
Want to back that up with facts?
Or just keep it at pure conjecture?

 

[kaz]

It's the biggest deficit for Trump in that poll yet.

Yes he had the EXACT SAME 14 point deficit on October 10 2016 in the NBC/WSJ Poll and the EXACT SAME 14 point deficit in the Associated Press Poll on October 26 2016.

The situation is It's The Economy Stupid and until the crazy situation with DAMAGING COVID-19 Lockdowns the American Economy was doing very well. Now who are the peoples going to trust to keep the American Economy moving? Joe Biden who hasn't got a CLUE except to raise taxes and he's said he would do ANOTHER damaging Lockdown which would further damage the American Economy and lose more jobs and probably lose more jobs to China OR Donald Trump to keep the American Economy afloat and do things to encourage more job creation? Who are they going to trust on the Economy? Like I said It's The Economy Stupid. Donald Trump brought more jobs back to Michigan and Pennsylvania and Ohio since 2017, Joe Biden would destroy those jobs with another Lockdown or outsourcing to China.

One big difference is that in 2016, the number of people who were undecided was 13-15%.

Today, it’s half that.

So the runway for Trump to make up ground is much more limited today compared to the last election.

In 2016, the Democratic candidate was hated and Trump was unknown.

Now, the Democratic candidate isn’t hated and Trump is known.

Here's another Poll this is from The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express, they have been doing a Monthly Poll, The Democracy Institute is in Washington DC and they factor in a probably Trump Silent Vote:

View attachment 397046
View attachment 397047

The poll is 1,500 LIKELY Voters and NOT REGISTERED Voters, polls of REGISTERED Voters don't count they are always wildly inaccurate:

View attachment 397058

View attachment 397048
View attachment 397049

^^^^ The Democracy Institute CORRECTLY predicted both Trump winning in 2016 and they also predicted the BREXIT vote result.

View attachment 397051

View attachment 397053
View attachment 397054

View attachment 397057

This on the Silent/Shy Trump Voters and also 7% of Biden voters could change their minds:

View attachment 397061

And because Trump supporters get so much ABUSE it shows that YES they do NOT in public say they support Trump:

View attachment 397062

The two top most important issues to those Polled are Law and Order/riots and violence and the Economy and as I previously commented It's The Economy Stupid and also I'll add considering all the riots and violence are ALL in Democrat run areas and the Democrats are Hating On The Police then I FAIL to see HOW Joe Biden could be favoured in the Law and Order category:

View attachment 397063

US election poll: Trump BEATING Biden despite being hospitalised

DONALD TRUMP'S illness with coronavirus has not impacted his push to win a second term in the White House, an exclusive poll has revealed.

www.express.co.uk

Lucy Hamilton

That firm was incredibly inaccurate in 2016.

In their last poll before the 2016 election, they said Trump was winning the popular vote by 5%.

https://calvinayre.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/DI-USA-election-poll-2016.pdf

But he lost the popular vote by 2.1%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election

They said their margin of error was 2.5%, yet they were off by over 7%.

That Trump won doesn't mean their polling methodologies are accurate. It just means they were right for the wrong reasons.

Just to explain margin of error. For a poll, a common tolerance would be like 90%. So a margin of error of 2% would mean there's a 90% chance that the actual percent is in that range. It does not mean the result is certain to be in that range.

The 2.1% PV (which is a made up stat) is also heavily dependent on California. Trump would have won the PV other than for California. California had a very soft standard for voters that's hard to compare to the rest of the country.

While California is at least checking immigration documents now for a drivers license now (they were not in 2016), there are still a lot of Californians who got drivers licenses and before they became real ID compliant and can still vote

Typically, a margin of error for a poll is 2.5%-4.5%, depending on the sample population. For instance, an unbiased poll with 500 respondents would have a MOE of 4.5%. For 1500 respondents, 2.5%. That's at a confidence interval of 95%. IOW, we would expect an unbiased poll to accurately represent a population within the MOE 19 times out of 20.

I said 90% and with a bunch of words you said 95%. Fine, that works.

Hillary had like an 98% chance of winning. How'd that work out? While technically that means it could have happened, I doubt it. I think there was more at play than simple probability.

That's why I mentioned I didn't respond to a poll in 2016 and I voted for Gary Johnson. I haven't responded to a poll in 2020 and I'm voting for Trump

 

[kaz]

The poll is statistically useless (aka fake). Left leaning voters over sampled greater than 10% and women over sampled greater than 5%.

One of these days you Dotards are gonna figure out that nobody sets out to call x number of Ds and x number of Rs x number of Indies x number of women x number of men etc etc etc. It's completely random.

It's random for people with landlines and the mobile phones they happen to have. It's not random for who answers the poll or that the people they call accurately reflect the full population.

In 2016 I was bombed with pollster calls, but I didn't answer them. Now I changed my number and haven't given called outside friends and family and they haven't found me.

How can I be part of a random sample of phone calls?

The typical poll gets about 1000 registered voters. There are around 160 million registered voters in this country. That means your odds of getting called by any one poll are around one in 160,000.

Don't wait by the phone dummy.

Ssssaaaawwwwiiiiiisssshhhhhhhhhh.

That so completely and utterly misses the point

 

[kaz]

Watch Biden jump more in the polls now that the COV-IDIOT is in the hospital after mocking people who wear masks and practice physical distancing.

That's certainly what the hate Democrat party will pitch even though most of the deaths were in blue States run by Democrats where the President has little power over the covid response. It's all Florida regulations here, Trump has virtually no say

You clowns need some new talking points because, I hate to tell you, the coastal states where the virus arrived, primarily from Asia and Europe via air into JFK, EWR, LGA, SFO,SEA and LAX are all blue. So OF COURSE that's where the virus boomed. But that ain't the case anymore, Bubba.

New Cases Have Reached Record Levels in the Midwest (Published 2020)

As new coronavirus cases have dropped nationally, infections have soared in the Midwest.

www.nytimes.com

Of course it is. Florida still has a third the deaths of New York and Texas has half. Both have higher populations than New York.

So what is New York doing to murder its own citizens? As well as New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts?

 

[kaz]

Whatever "mods." Mac whining isn't a point. I directly answered his posts

 

[candycorn]

I agree with the commentary below. I think this poll is a knee-jerk reaction to Trump's poor showing at the debate. I think Biden is going to win but not by 14.

Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time. ...​

​

Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who directed the survey with Democrat Jeff Horwitt, cautioned that the poll was conducted during an unsettled moment after the caustic presidential debate—“a shock to the system,” he called it—and could reflect a temporary reassessment of views. “The public can be taking a moment to say, ‘What did I just see, and how do I feel about it?’” he said. Mr. Trump could regain ground, Mr. McInturff said, given that “he has a history of bouncing back to some set point.” ...​

​

Messrs. Horwitt and McInturff said one factor was the debate, a decorum-destroying event in which the two candidates traded insults and continually talked over each other, with Mr. Trump interrupting his opponent more often. About three-quarters of voters said the event made no difference to their vote. But among the other 25%, a bigger share said the debate made them more likely to support Mr. Biden than Mr. Trump.​

​

While 84% of Democrats said Mr. Biden did a better job in the debate, 54% of Republicans said so of the president. Overall, half of voters said Mr. Biden performed better, with a quarter saying Mr. Trump did. Some 17% said neither candidate did well.​

​

Asked more broadly about the candidates’ personal qualities, voters by a two-to-one margin said Mr. Biden was better at displaying “the right temperament to be president,” 58% to 26%.​

​

“It is clear that the debate, and Mr. Trump’s behavior during it, reinforced the negative side of Mr. Trump personally for many respondents,” said Mr. Horwitt. He said the president “lost the American people on style more than substance.”​

Biden Scores 14-Point Lead Over Trump in Poll After Debate

President Trump is drawing his weakest voter support of the year following Tuesday’s debate with former Vice President Joe Biden, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

www.wsj.com

Amazing what happens when you embrace a hate group like the blob did. I still can't believe he did it.

Polls are meaningless but it's a promising trend for Harris/Biden.

 

[candycorn]

Polls are like women. You can find any kind that will do or say anything you want if you look hard enough.

Yeah, let us know when you find one....

 

[charwin95]

Seems like an outlier, what they had 50% democrats to 35% republicans in this poll?
View attachment 397030

You will see in the ORIGINAL thread when the Mods Merge Dr.Love's thread with it, that I posted TWO Polls from 2016 and on October 10 2016 the SAME WSJ/NBC Poll had Hillary leading 14% and that 16 days later on October 26 2016 Associated Press their Poll had Hillary leading by 14 points and that was just 12 days before the election where the result was Hillary 48% and Trump 46% and she won the Popular Vote and he won the Electoral College Vote.

Oh! Lucy .............. That is true Hillary was ahead on all polls in 2016. You are missing something big. I mean BIG TIME.....
1. Americans did not go out to vote especially the African Americans.
2. Americans thought that Trump is white shining armor in a white horse that will destroy all these bad politics and corruptions. Best for the economy.

FAST FORWARD 3 years and 11 months.
1. Economy is near collapse with a record of WORST unemployment before election as zero job creation.
2. Pathological serial liar.
3. Total failure of handling the Coronavirus crisis with 200,000 deaths and counting. Total disregard of human being.
4. Millions of millions of Americans are sufferings financially, sick, unemployment, evictions, lost of health care coverage, businesses closures permanently, job losses. Americans are scared.
5. Racist supporters a of White supremacist. And against minorities.
6. Inciting violence against his fellow Americans the democrats.
7. Very corrupt, dishonest, disgusting behavior. Operate like mafia.
8. Only catered to certain group his base of whites.
9. He has not address the issue of police brutalities, racism, no health care plan, no plan to solve the CV crisis.
10. Banning of gay and lesbian in military. LBQT community has a very large members plus friends and families.
11. HS graduate students from last 3 years that are sick of school massacres will vote in record numbers.
12. This time African Americans will come out and votes in record breaking numbers like the BLM that is sweeping this country. and spilled to other countries in support of AF racial injustice.
13. A record numbers of life time republicans endorsing Biden.
14. Very low military support.


I can ASSURE you that Trump is in very BIG trouble on top of his own problems and his health.

 

[Toro]

I agree with the commentary below. I think this poll is a knee-jerk reaction to Trump's poor showing at the debate. I think Biden is going to win but not by 14.

Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time. ...​

​

Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who directed the survey with Democrat Jeff Horwitt, cautioned that the poll was conducted during an unsettled moment after the caustic presidential debate—“a shock to the system,” he called it—and could reflect a temporary reassessment of views. “The public can be taking a moment to say, ‘What did I just see, and how do I feel about it?’” he said. Mr. Trump could regain ground, Mr. McInturff said, given that “he has a history of bouncing back to some set point.” ...​

​

Messrs. Horwitt and McInturff said one factor was the debate, a decorum-destroying event in which the two candidates traded insults and continually talked over each other, with Mr. Trump interrupting his opponent more often. About three-quarters of voters said the event made no difference to their vote. But among the other 25%, a bigger share said the debate made them more likely to support Mr. Biden than Mr. Trump.​

​

While 84% of Democrats said Mr. Biden did a better job in the debate, 54% of Republicans said so of the president. Overall, half of voters said Mr. Biden performed better, with a quarter saying Mr. Trump did. Some 17% said neither candidate did well.​

​

Asked more broadly about the candidates’ personal qualities, voters by a two-to-one margin said Mr. Biden was better at displaying “the right temperament to be president,” 58% to 26%.​

​

“It is clear that the debate, and Mr. Trump’s behavior during it, reinforced the negative side of Mr. Trump personally for many respondents,” said Mr. Horwitt. He said the president “lost the American people on style more than substance.”​

Biden Scores 14-Point Lead Over Trump in Poll After Debate

President Trump is drawing his weakest voter support of the year following Tuesday’s debate with former Vice President Joe Biden, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

www.wsj.com

The sad part for you Toro and your ilk, is how blind you are to the MSM bias...

Based on this alone we wouldn’t have a President Trump, how could so many so called experts be so wrong? Oh I almost forgot, Russia got him elected with a $150K worth of messages on Facebook...

I’m just reading the data.

Yeah that’s what everyone said last time...

Our MSM is complicit with the DNC, BLM, Antifa, etc..., I’m not in line with the Cuomo’s, Lemon’s, Scarborough’s, Maddow’s and Matthews of the world to mold the narrative, I’m not defending the Fox anchors as a whole either, the lies they continue to perpetuate shades the truth so much it’s despicable they get paid what they do...

Sooner or later their deceit will have an impact we cannot turn back, the American public will be so divided a Civil War will unfold...

You're pretty nutty.

 

[charwin95]

I can guarantee you that Trump will not win here in California. Big chance of winning Arizona with Mark Kelly as the candidate. There’s also a group of republicans endorsing Biden.

Questions raised about Arizona Republicans endorsing Biden for president

On Monday, the Biden campaign released a list of more than 50 Republicans in the state who are throwing their support behind the former VP.

www.azfamily.com