WSJ Post-Debate Poll: Biden Up by 14

[BrokeLoser]

I agree with the commentary below. I think this poll is a knee-jerk reaction to Trump's poor showing at the debate. I think Biden is going to win but not by 14.

Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time. ...​

​

Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who directed the survey with Democrat Jeff Horwitt, cautioned that the poll was conducted during an unsettled moment after the caustic presidential debate—“a shock to the system,” he called it—and could reflect a temporary reassessment of views. “The public can be taking a moment to say, ‘What did I just see, and how do I feel about it?’” he said. Mr. Trump could regain ground, Mr. McInturff said, given that “he has a history of bouncing back to some set point.” ...​

​

Messrs. Horwitt and McInturff said one factor was the debate, a decorum-destroying event in which the two candidates traded insults and continually talked over each other, with Mr. Trump interrupting his opponent more often. About three-quarters of voters said the event made no difference to their vote. But among the other 25%, a bigger share said the debate made them more likely to support Mr. Biden than Mr. Trump.​

​

While 84% of Democrats said Mr. Biden did a better job in the debate, 54% of Republicans said so of the president. Overall, half of voters said Mr. Biden performed better, with a quarter saying Mr. Trump did. Some 17% said neither candidate did well.​

​

Asked more broadly about the candidates’ personal qualities, voters by a two-to-one margin said Mr. Biden was better at displaying “the right temperament to be president,” 58% to 26%.​

​

“It is clear that the debate, and Mr. Trump’s behavior during it, reinforced the negative side of Mr. Trump personally for many respondents,” said Mr. Horwitt. He said the president “lost the American people on style more than substance.”​

Biden Scores 14-Point Lead Over Trump in Poll After Debate

President Trump is drawing his weakest voter support of the year following Tuesday’s debate with former Vice President Joe Biden, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

www.wsj.com

 

[Dana7360]

I agree with the commentary below. I think this poll is a knee-jerk reaction to Trump's poor showing at the debate. I think Biden is going to win but not by 14.

Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time. ...​

​

Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who directed the survey with Democrat Jeff Horwitt, cautioned that the poll was conducted during an unsettled moment after the caustic presidential debate—“a shock to the system,” he called it—and could reflect a temporary reassessment of views. “The public can be taking a moment to say, ‘What did I just see, and how do I feel about it?’” he said. Mr. Trump could regain ground, Mr. McInturff said, given that “he has a history of bouncing back to some set point.” ...​

​

Messrs. Horwitt and McInturff said one factor was the debate, a decorum-destroying event in which the two candidates traded insults and continually talked over each other, with Mr. Trump interrupting his opponent more often. About three-quarters of voters said the event made no difference to their vote. But among the other 25%, a bigger share said the debate made them more likely to support Mr. Biden than Mr. Trump.​

​

While 84% of Democrats said Mr. Biden did a better job in the debate, 54% of Republicans said so of the president. Overall, half of voters said Mr. Biden performed better, with a quarter saying Mr. Trump did. Some 17% said neither candidate did well.​

​

Asked more broadly about the candidates’ personal qualities, voters by a two-to-one margin said Mr. Biden was better at displaying “the right temperament to be president,” 58% to 26%.​

​

“It is clear that the debate, and Mr. Trump’s behavior during it, reinforced the negative side of Mr. Trump personally for many respondents,” said Mr. Horwitt. He said the president “lost the American people on style more than substance.”​

Biden Scores 14-Point Lead Over Trump in Poll After Debate

President Trump is drawing his weakest voter support of the year following Tuesday’s debate with former Vice President Joe Biden, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

www.wsj.com

The poll is statistically useless (aka fake). Left leaning voters over sampled greater than 10% and women over sampled greater than 5%.

This is a critical time....they need to suppress Trump supporters who are enraged at the democrat party, eager to help get "The Original AOC, " on the Supreme Court, and understand that the democrat party plans to take over the country if they win.....

It is the Republican Party who is trying to take over the country. For example, they couldn't legislatively get rid of the ACA so they are trying to use the courts to get rid of it.

The ACA is unConstitutional.....

No it is not. The government can regulate the insurance industry. Tell us what part of the Constitution it violates.

The person you are replying to has probably never read the constitution beyond the second Amendment.

That person obviously has no idea what the "Commerce Clause" is or what it does.

All Obamacare is regulations on private insurance companies, expanding medicaid and giving subsidies to those who can't afford insurance. It used to have a mandate with a penalty for not complying but trump and the republicans got rid of it.

All that needs to happen with Obamacare is for the mandate to return with the penalty or tax that comes with it.

I find it funny that republicans, who spent the last 4 decades screaming about personal responsibility, now have a problem with the government actually making people take that personal responsibility with insurance.

They scream they don't want to pay for other people yet when the government takes steps to make those other people pay at least something, the same people scream they don't want that too.

It's crazy, but then, we are dealing with trump people.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

It's the biggest deficit for Trump in that poll yet.

Yes he had the EXACT SAME 14 point deficit on October 10 2016 in the NBC/WSJ Poll and the EXACT SAME 14 point deficit in the Associated Press Poll on October 26 2016.

The situation is It's The Economy Stupid and until the crazy situation with DAMAGING COVID-19 Lockdowns the American Economy was doing very well. Now who are the peoples going to trust to keep the American Economy moving? Joe Biden who hasn't got a CLUE except to raise taxes and he's said he would do ANOTHER damaging Lockdown which would further damage the American Economy and lose more jobs and probably lose more jobs to China OR Donald Trump to keep the American Economy afloat and do things to encourage more job creation? Who are they going to trust on the Economy? Like I said It's The Economy Stupid. Donald Trump brought more jobs back to Michigan and Pennsylvania and Ohio since 2017, Joe Biden would destroy those jobs with another Lockdown or outsourcing to China.

One big difference is that in 2016, the number of people who were undecided was 13-15%.

Today, it’s half that.

So the runway for Trump to make up ground is much more limited today compared to the last election.

In 2016, the Democratic candidate was hated and Trump was unknown.

Now, the Democratic candidate isn’t hated and Trump is known.

Here's another Poll this is from The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express, they have been doing a Monthly Poll, The Democracy Institute is in Washington DC and they factor in a probably Trump Silent Vote:

View attachment 397046
View attachment 397047

The poll is 1,500 LIKELY Voters and NOT REGISTERED Voters, polls of REGISTERED Voters don't count they are always wildly inaccurate:

View attachment 397058

View attachment 397048
View attachment 397049

^^^^ The Democracy Institute CORRECTLY predicted both Trump winning in 2016 and they also predicted the BREXIT vote result.

View attachment 397051

View attachment 397053
View attachment 397054

View attachment 397057

This on the Silent/Shy Trump Voters and also 7% of Biden voters could change their minds:

View attachment 397061

And because Trump supporters get so much ABUSE it shows that YES they do NOT in public say they support Trump:

View attachment 397062

The two top most important issues to those Polled are Law and Order/riots and violence and the Economy and as I previously commented It's The Economy Stupid and also I'll add considering all the riots and violence are ALL in Democrat run areas and the Democrats are Hating On The Police then I FAIL to see HOW Joe Biden could be favoured in the Law and Order category:

View attachment 397063

US election poll: Trump BEATING Biden despite being hospitalised

DONALD TRUMP'S illness with coronavirus has not impacted his push to win a second term in the White House, an exclusive poll has revealed.

www.express.co.uk

Lucy Hamilton

That firm was incredibly inaccurate in 2016.

In their last poll before the 2016 election, they said Trump was winning the popular vote by 5%.

https://calvinayre.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/DI-USA-election-poll-2016.pdf

But he lost the popular vote by 2.1%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election

They said their margin of error was 2.5%, yet they were off by over 7%.

That Trump won doesn't mean their polling methodologies are accurate. It just means they were right for the wrong reasons.

The below is from RealClearPolitics and it's their average of various State Polls so far, this is what it shows:

^^^^ What we can see from the above is that at this time Joe Biden is not performing as well in the above States as Hillary was at the same time as now in 2016, the exceptions are New Hampshire and Nevada where Biden is outperforming Hillary in 2016.

What we also see is that like Hillary in 2016 Biden is leading in:

Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina.

Hillary was leading like Biden in all the above States and all the above States Donald Trump won.

 

[JimBowie1958]

GIGO

Cuomo warns NYC religious institutions could be shut down for coronavirus violations

Cuomo said state officials will take over enforcement of mandates such as building capacity limits and social distancing.

www.foxnews.com

Thirty-five percent of poll respondents self-identified as Democrats, while only 27 percent self-identified as Republican, and 32 percent self-identified as Independents, resulting in a survey sample that was Democrat +8, a significantly higher sampling of Democrats than measured in the most recent national Gallup Poll of party affiliation. That poll, (conducted between August 31 and Sept 13), found that 29 percent of Americans self-identified as Republican, 30 percent self-identified as Democrat, and 40 percent self-identified as Independents, resulting in an actual national partisan breakdown of Democrat +1.​

​

In other words, the NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll includes five percent more Democrats and two percent fewer Republicans than the actual national population, for a net oversampling of Democrats of seven percent.​

​

In contrast, the IBD/TIPP Poll released on Friday, which shows Biden with just a three point lead over Trump–within the poll’s margin of error–was taken from a weighted sample of likely voters with a partisan breakdown of Democrat +1, the same as September 2020 national Gallup Poll of party affiliation of Democrat +1. Forty percent of poll respondents were Democrats, 39 percent were Republican, and 20 percent were Independents.​

​

Similarly, the Sunday Express/Democracy Institute Poll released on Saturday that shows Trump with a one point lead over Biden has a national turnout model of 37 percent Democrat and 35 percent Republican, or Democrat +2.​

 

[JimBowie1958]

These have to be fake.

Watch this video and you will understand how pollsters get the results they are paid to produce.

 

[j-mac]

Just as a reminder, all the polls were forecasting a blow-out in the 2018 House elections, and it was the worst defeat for the Republicans in the House in 44 years. The polls underestimated the extent of the Republican's defeat.

The same people who are saying "the polls were wrong in 2016 and are wrong now" were the same ones saying "the polls were wrong in 2016 and are wrong now" in 2018.

Yeah, go with that.

 

[kyzr]

The Vegas betting odds are back to even.

 

[DrLove]

The poll is statistically useless (aka fake). Left leaning voters over sampled greater than 10% and women over sampled greater than 5%.

One of these days you Dotards are gonna figure out that nobody sets out to call x number of Ds and x number of Rs x number of Indies x number of women x number of men etc etc etc. It's completely random.

No -- It's NOT random.. Because political affiliation and likelihood to vote and many other reasons. You'd be violating the basic principle of having a REPRESENTATIVE sample in statistics..

So they do go by characteristics and weight the representation of the voters. Might even choose "swing districts" only or "key districts" in a state..

But it's ALL CRAP today because polling by internet is a NON starter and calling by PHONE is even dodgy since 30% of the folks I know have mobile numbers with OTHER zip codes on them,..

The ONLY 21st survey tech that's gonna work is what Survey Monkey and several others are doing. They maintain CATALOGS of folks where their demographics and preferences and personal info is included. And for each poll -- depending on the specific question and survey methodology -- they pick REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLES from those catalogues.

Hmmm, that's not what I've been reading.

How are people selected for your polls?​

Once numbers are selected through random digit dialing, the process of selecting respondents is different for landline and cellphone numbers. When interviewers reach someone on a landline phone, they randomly ask half the sample if they could speak with “the youngest male, 18 years of age or older, who is now at home” and the other half of the sample to speak with “the youngest female, 18 years of age or older, who is now at home.” If there is no eligible person of the requested gender at home, interviewers ask to speak with the youngest adult of the opposite gender, who is now at home. This method of selecting respondents within each household improves participation among young people who are often more difficult to interview than older people because of their lifestyles. Unlike a landline phone, a cellphone is assumed in Pew Research Center polls to be a personal device. This means that, for those in the cell sample, interviewers ask if the person who answers the cellphone is 18 years of age or older to determine if the person is eligible to complete the survey.​

Frequently Asked Questions

Why am I never asked to take a poll? You have roughly the same chance of being polled as anyone else living in the United States. This chance, however, is

www.pewresearch.org

That's how people ARE SCREENED for polls.. They ask you LEAD questions to determine IF you're "representive" of the people they are looking for and hung up with you if you aren't.. So -- it's misleading to TELL PEOPLE that polls are "random sampled"... They are not..

And the Survey Monkey kind of technique is more reliable if the catalogues are LARGE.. Commercial polling like Nielsen for TV/Radio has done "catalogs" for DECADES -- because they KNOW those people ARE responsive and reliable from their info on PREVIOUS polls...

Only way to DO 21st century national polling.

And Pew is fucked up if they ALWAYS select for "the YOUNGEST member of the household"... THERE'S a bias right there in their "representative sample"...

And if they ALLOW cell phone screenings -- they have NO FUCKING IDEA what STATE that phone is actually lives in..,. Another mistake..

I don't know how else one would define "random digit dialing" other than that the process is indeed RANDOM.

But you being selected to be entered INTO the poll -- is NOT just the chance of random dial.. Being CALLED doesn't mean you're who they are looking for to take THAT poll.....

They random dial "banks" of sequential phone numbers. Random means RANDOM, and yet you claimed it wasn't. Of course - Being called doesn't mean I was the one they were looking for. Maybe that's because they aren't looking for ANYONE in particular - Only registered voters.

And what's wrong with them looking for the youngest voter in the household? If you're a Pew rep, do you want to talk to a hard of hearing and possibly infirm grannie who will take forever to get to the phone and possibly take three times as long to answer the questions? I don't!

 

[flacaltenn]

They random dial "banks" of sequential phone numbers. Random means RANDOM, and yet you claimed it wasn't. Of course - Being called doesn't mean I was the one they were looking for. Maybe that's because they aren't looking for ANYONE in particular - Only registered voters.

You're not getting the important diff between who they call randomly and who is ALLOWED to take the poll.. The randomness is FLAW -- not a feature.. Go look up the diff on polling nationwide 2020 prez campaign at SurveyMonkey.. When THEY KNOW who to call. Versus randomly dialing..

Candidate preference

www.tableau.com

 

[basquebromance]

/thread

 

[kaz]

I agree with the commentary below. I think this poll is a knee-jerk reaction to Trump's poor showing at the debate. I think Biden is going to win but not by 14.

Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time. ...​

​

Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who directed the survey with Democrat Jeff Horwitt, cautioned that the poll was conducted during an unsettled moment after the caustic presidential debate—“a shock to the system,” he called it—and could reflect a temporary reassessment of views. “The public can be taking a moment to say, ‘What did I just see, and how do I feel about it?’” he said. Mr. Trump could regain ground, Mr. McInturff said, given that “he has a history of bouncing back to some set point.” ...​

​

Messrs. Horwitt and McInturff said one factor was the debate, a decorum-destroying event in which the two candidates traded insults and continually talked over each other, with Mr. Trump interrupting his opponent more often. About three-quarters of voters said the event made no difference to their vote. But among the other 25%, a bigger share said the debate made them more likely to support Mr. Biden than Mr. Trump.​

​

While 84% of Democrats said Mr. Biden did a better job in the debate, 54% of Republicans said so of the president. Overall, half of voters said Mr. Biden performed better, with a quarter saying Mr. Trump did. Some 17% said neither candidate did well.​

​

Asked more broadly about the candidates’ personal qualities, voters by a two-to-one margin said Mr. Biden was better at displaying “the right temperament to be president,” 58% to 26%.​

​

“It is clear that the debate, and Mr. Trump’s behavior during it, reinforced the negative side of Mr. Trump personally for many respondents,” said Mr. Horwitt. He said the president “lost the American people on style more than substance.”​

Biden Scores 14-Point Lead Over Trump in Poll After Debate

President Trump is drawing his weakest voter support of the year following Tuesday’s debate with former Vice President Joe Biden, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

www.wsj.com

Amazing what happens when you embrace a hate group like the blob did. I still can't believe he did it.

Polls are meaningless but it's a promising trend for Harris/Biden.

The preschool comic strikes again! The "blob," LOL. You were going to tell me how old you are. The bloooobbbbbbbbbbbbbb. Four year olds are cracking up everywhere. And you're a grown woman, too funny

 

[charwin95]

Seems like an outlier, what they had 50% democrats to 35% republicans in this poll?
View attachment 397030

You will see in the ORIGINAL thread when the Mods Merge Dr.Love's thread with it, that I posted TWO Polls from 2016 and on October 10 2016 the SAME WSJ/NBC Poll had Hillary leading 14% and that 16 days later on October 26 2016 Associated Press their Poll had Hillary leading by 14 points and that was just 12 days before the election where the result was Hillary 48% and Trump 46% and she won the Popular Vote and he won the Electoral College Vote.

Oh! Lucy .............. That is true Hillary was ahead on all polls in 2016. You are missing something big. I mean BIG TIME.....
1. Americans did not go out to vote especially the African Americans.
2. Americans thought that Trump is white shining armor in a white horse that will destroy all these bad politics and corruptions. Best for the economy.

FAST FORWARD 3 years and 11 months.
1. Economy is near collapse with a record of WORST unemployment before election as zero job creation.
2. Pathological serial liar.
3. Total failure of handling the Coronavirus crisis with 200,000 deaths and counting. Total disregard of human being.
4. Millions of millions of Americans are sufferings financially, sick, unemployment, evictions, lost of health care coverage, businesses closures permanently, job losses. Americans are scared.
5. Racist supporters a of White supremacist. And against minorities.
6. Inciting violence against his fellow Americans the democrats.
7. Very corrupt, dishonest, disgusting behavior. Operate like mafia.
8. Only catered to certain group his base of whites.
9. He has not address the issue of police brutalities, racism, no health care plan, no plan to solve the CV crisis.
10. Banning of gay and lesbian in military. LBQT community has a very large members plus friends and families.
11. HS graduate students from last 3 years that are sick of school massacres will vote in record numbers.
12. This time African Americans will come out and votes in record breaking numbers like the BLM that is sweeping this country. and spilled to other countries in support of AF racial injustice.
13. A record numbers of life time republicans endorsing Biden.
14. Very low military support.


I can ASSURE you that Trump is in very BIG trouble on top of his own problems and his health.

And none of this is true...not a single one.

You are not properly informed. TDS at the highest ...... Trump Denial Sympathizers.

Lets take one
10. Banning of gay and lesbian in military. LBQT community has a very large members plus friends and families.

Where is this from?

This was a big commotion back in 2018 regarding this ban followed by several LGBTQ protest.

Trump's controversial transgender military policy goes into effect

“The policy is insidious in operation but designed to be as comprehensive a ban as possible,” the nonpartisan Palm Center, which studies LGBTQ military issues, stated.

www.nbcnews.com

LGBTQ ruling tangles Trump’s transgender military ban

Washington D.C. correspondent Alexandra Limon reports on whether the Supreme Court’s ruling will impact the President’s order that banned the enlistment of transgender people in the US military.…

www.koin.com

 

[buckeye45_73]

Seems like an outlier, what they had 50% democrats to 35% republicans in this poll?
View attachment 397030

You will see in the ORIGINAL thread when the Mods Merge Dr.Love's thread with it, that I posted TWO Polls from 2016 and on October 10 2016 the SAME WSJ/NBC Poll had Hillary leading 14% and that 16 days later on October 26 2016 Associated Press their Poll had Hillary leading by 14 points and that was just 12 days before the election where the result was Hillary 48% and Trump 46% and she won the Popular Vote and he won the Electoral College Vote.

Oh! Lucy .............. That is true Hillary was ahead on all polls in 2016. You are missing something big. I mean BIG TIME.....
1. Americans did not go out to vote especially the African Americans.
2. Americans thought that Trump is white shining armor in a white horse that will destroy all these bad politics and corruptions. Best for the economy.

FAST FORWARD 3 years and 11 months.
1. Economy is near collapse with a record of WORST unemployment before election as zero job creation.
2. Pathological serial liar.
3. Total failure of handling the Coronavirus crisis with 200,000 deaths and counting. Total disregard of human being.
4. Millions of millions of Americans are sufferings financially, sick, unemployment, evictions, lost of health care coverage, businesses closures permanently, job losses. Americans are scared.
5. Racist supporters a of White supremacist. And against minorities.
6. Inciting violence against his fellow Americans the democrats.
7. Very corrupt, dishonest, disgusting behavior. Operate like mafia.
8. Only catered to certain group his base of whites.
9. He has not address the issue of police brutalities, racism, no health care plan, no plan to solve the CV crisis.
10. Banning of gay and lesbian in military. LBQT community has a very large members plus friends and families.
11. HS graduate students from last 3 years that are sick of school massacres will vote in record numbers.
12. This time African Americans will come out and votes in record breaking numbers like the BLM that is sweeping this country. and spilled to other countries in support of AF racial injustice.
13. A record numbers of life time republicans endorsing Biden.
14. Very low military support.


I can ASSURE you that Trump is in very BIG trouble on top of his own problems and his health.

And none of this is true...not a single one.

You are not properly informed. TDS at the highest ...... Trump Denial Sympathizers.

Lets take one
10. Banning of gay and lesbian in military. LBQT community has a very large members plus friends and families.

Where is this from?

This was a big commotion back in 2018 regarding this ban followed by several LGBTQ protest.

Trump's controversial transgender military policy goes into effect

“The policy is insidious in operation but designed to be as comprehensive a ban as possible,” the nonpartisan Palm Center, which studies LGBTQ military issues, stated.

www.nbcnews.com

LGBTQ ruling tangles Trump’s transgender military ban

Washington D.C. correspondent Alexandra Limon reports on whether the Supreme Court’s ruling will impact the President’s order that banned the enlistment of transgender people in the US military.…

www.koin.com

Trannies are not gays.......
gays don't pretend to be women, so they can shower and have access to them.

 

[kaz]

Watch Biden jump more in the polls now that the COV-IDIOT is in the hospital after mocking people who wear masks and practice physical distancing.

That's certainly what the hate Democrat party will pitch even though most of the deaths were in blue States run by Democrats where the President has little power over the covid response. It's all Florida regulations here, Trump has virtually no say

Yes, most conservatives are truly this stupid.

And yet it was your post that had zero content.

Democrats blame leaders for the spread of the virus.

The GOVERNORS not the President set State policies. So YOUR argument is that it's the governors fault, and this ends up on the doorsteps of the party where most of the deaths are, Democrats.

You didn't think your argument through, that is obvious. You didn't grasp my point. You didn't provide any content. Then YOU called ME stupid.

Dude, you're stupid