WSJ Post-Debate Poll: Biden Up by 14

[Toro]

I agree with the commentary below. I think this poll is a knee-jerk reaction to Trump's poor showing at the debate. I think Biden is going to win but not by 14.

Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time. ...​

​

Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who directed the survey with Democrat Jeff Horwitt, cautioned that the poll was conducted during an unsettled moment after the caustic presidential debate—“a shock to the system,” he called it—and could reflect a temporary reassessment of views. “The public can be taking a moment to say, ‘What did I just see, and how do I feel about it?’” he said. Mr. Trump could regain ground, Mr. McInturff said, given that “he has a history of bouncing back to some set point.” ...​

​

Messrs. Horwitt and McInturff said one factor was the debate, a decorum-destroying event in which the two candidates traded insults and continually talked over each other, with Mr. Trump interrupting his opponent more often. About three-quarters of voters said the event made no difference to their vote. But among the other 25%, a bigger share said the debate made them more likely to support Mr. Biden than Mr. Trump.​

​

While 84% of Democrats said Mr. Biden did a better job in the debate, 54% of Republicans said so of the president. Overall, half of voters said Mr. Biden performed better, with a quarter saying Mr. Trump did. Some 17% said neither candidate did well.​

​

Asked more broadly about the candidates’ personal qualities, voters by a two-to-one margin said Mr. Biden was better at displaying “the right temperament to be president,” 58% to 26%.​

​

“It is clear that the debate, and Mr. Trump’s behavior during it, reinforced the negative side of Mr. Trump personally for many respondents,” said Mr. Horwitt. He said the president “lost the American people on style more than substance.”​

Biden Scores 14-Point Lead Over Trump in Poll After Debate

President Trump is drawing his weakest voter support of the year following Tuesday’s debate with former Vice President Joe Biden, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

www.wsj.com

Yeah...we will see in November....

Over sampling democrats ........typical tactic...

ABC's Trump In Trouble Poll Surveyed Just 533, Not Likely Voters, Asked Over 20% More Biden Supporters Than Conservatives - The National Pulse

ABC-Ipsos’s new poll – which ostensibly shows President Trump in trouble – surveyed just 533 people, without a preference for likely or registered voters, and with a significant Democratic Party skew.The poll – cited across the news media on Sunday – purported to show the public at odds with the...

thenationalpulse.com

You've posted hundreds of branches of gun violence in other countries as evidence that gun control does not work simply because there's violence.

You clearly do not understand math.

 

[Toro]

The ironic thing here is that, even if Biden wins, the Trumpsters don't have much to worry about.

Biden would just be the next Democratic President needing to spend all his time cleaning up the mess of his GOP predecessor, and won't be able to get much Marxist Hitler commie socialist Nazi stuff done.

Yeah, all these so-called "Patriots" who hate socialism will still be getting their SS checks and cashing in on Medicare.

 

[charwin95]

Let Vegas is one of my top 10 favorite cities around the world. If the US economy cannot recover in 2021 Las Vegas will be the first city to fall.



Estimated visitors of LV from California
is 40% only to a hotel reservations but it doesn’t count the drive by round trips in groups or numbers of people in a rooms. Meaning it’s far higher than 40%. If the economy doesn’t improve here in California the city of LV will be the first city suffer.

I have lots of friends in LV that are suffering right now that it will make you cry.

 

[lennypartiv]

Yeah, all these so-called "Patriots" who hate socialism will still be getting their SS checks and cashing in on Medicare.

Sooner or later we will have a president with the brains and guts to get rid of wasteful programs like Social Security and Medicare.

 

[basquebromance]

Moody's, not exactly a liberal organization, says Biden's plan will create millions of jobs

we need an economic plan for what i call the day after the storm...and Biden will provide it as President Of The United States

 

[Toro]

Yeah, all these so-called "Patriots" who hate socialism will still be getting their SS checks and cashing in on Medicare.

Sooner or later we will have a president with the brains and guts to get rid of wasteful programs like Social Security and Medicare.

Most of Trump's supporters rely heavily on SS and Medicare.

Yet they rail against "socialism."

I'll leave it to you to see the irony.

 

[Mike473]

Let's think about the latest Biden +14 poll. What is the probability of this actually happening? It would mean Biden would likely win 49, or maybe even all 50 states. A Reagan like landslide.

Maybe Biden wins, maybe he loses, but I would guess the probability of him winning by 14 points nationally is near 0.

If a poll produces a result that would be impossible to actually occur, the poll is clearly flawed and should have been scrapped.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Putin is going to wait until end of October to buy one (1) Facebook ad that will, once again, cause tens of millions of Biden voters, including Toro, to flip to Trump.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Yeah, all these so-called "Patriots" who hate socialism will still be getting their SS checks and cashing in on Medicare.

Sooner or later we will have a president with the brains and guts to get rid of wasteful programs like Social Security and Medicare.

Most of Trump's supporters rely heavily on SS and Medicare.

Yet they rail against "socialism."

I'll leave it to you to see the irony.

How is it "Socialist" get get back what we paid into for 45 years????

 

[Care4all]

I agree with the commentary below. I think this poll is a knee-jerk reaction to Trump's poor showing at the debate. I think Biden is going to win but not by 14.

Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time. ...​

​

Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who directed the survey with Democrat Jeff Horwitt, cautioned that the poll was conducted during an unsettled moment after the caustic presidential debate—“a shock to the system,” he called it—and could reflect a temporary reassessment of views. “The public can be taking a moment to say, ‘What did I just see, and how do I feel about it?’” he said. Mr. Trump could regain ground, Mr. McInturff said, given that “he has a history of bouncing back to some set point.” ...​

​

Messrs. Horwitt and McInturff said one factor was the debate, a decorum-destroying event in which the two candidates traded insults and continually talked over each other, with Mr. Trump interrupting his opponent more often. About three-quarters of voters said the event made no difference to their vote. But among the other 25%, a bigger share said the debate made them more likely to support Mr. Biden than Mr. Trump.​

​

While 84% of Democrats said Mr. Biden did a better job in the debate, 54% of Republicans said so of the president. Overall, half of voters said Mr. Biden performed better, with a quarter saying Mr. Trump did. Some 17% said neither candidate did well.​

​

Asked more broadly about the candidates’ personal qualities, voters by a two-to-one margin said Mr. Biden was better at displaying “the right temperament to be president,” 58% to 26%.​

​

“It is clear that the debate, and Mr. Trump’s behavior during it, reinforced the negative side of Mr. Trump personally for many respondents,” said Mr. Horwitt. He said the president “lost the American people on style more than substance.”​

Biden Scores 14-Point Lead Over Trump in Poll After Debate

President Trump is drawing his weakest voter support of the year following Tuesday’s debate with former Vice President Joe Biden, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

www.wsj.com

Different Polling sixteen days later after the NBC/WSJ Poll I just posted from October 10 2016. So on October 26 2016 Hillary was leading with LIKELY Voters 14 points ahead of Trump, this was just 12 days before the 2016 Election and the end result was Hillary got 48% and Trump got 46% and so look how OFF they ALL were, the below from Time Magazine:

View attachment 396999
View attachment 397001

^^^^ 12 days later Hillary's above 51% turned into 48% and Trump's 37% turned into 46% and Hillary won the Popular Vote and Trump won the Electora College and the election.

https://time.com/4546942/enums/

All of that is true!

Anything can happen.... in 2016, it was Comey announcing the reopening of the email investigation, just 10 days out or so, from election day.

But as far as polling, pollsters analyzed where they went wrong from head to toe, and right side and inside out.... i.e. not enough cell phone polling, not enough individual State polling, doing a population winning polling, instead of an electoral college focussed polling...etc etc

Anyway, in 2018, they predicted a landslide for Democrats in the House and no one believed them about this Blue Wave coming, but they were right! Their polling was accurate!

I do think polling with president Trump, does have a silent voter factor...people may be shy to say, they are voting for him.... like husbands of wives, who find him inhumane and just disgusting....No way Jose would they say they support him in front of their better half....but the secret ballot, is a secret ballot, for good reason!

 

[two_iron]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election

You do realize I could write "Toro sucks underage rat dicks" in wikipedia.... right?

You probably don't realize that. Fucking idiot.

 

[Billy_Kinetta]

It's the biggest deficit for Trump in that poll yet.

Biden will have a 92% chance of winning by election day.

This is 2020 not 2016.

Indeed, but neither man has changed. Trump has a record of great accomplishment, Biden has none.

 

[flacaltenn]

The poll is statistically useless (aka fake). Left leaning voters over sampled greater than 10% and women over sampled greater than 5%.

One of these days you Dotards are gonna figure out that nobody sets out to call x number of Ds and x number of Rs x number of Indies x number of women x number of men etc etc etc. It's completely random.

No -- It's NOT random.. Because political affiliation and likelihood to vote and many other reasons. You'd be violating the basic principle of having a REPRESENTATIVE sample in statistics..

So they do go by characteristics and weight the representation of the voters. Might even choose "swing districts" only or "key districts" in a state..

But it's ALL CRAP today because polling by internet is a NON starter and calling by PHONE is even dodgy since 30% of the folks I know have mobile numbers with OTHER zip codes on them,..

The ONLY 21st survey tech that's gonna work is what Survey Monkey and several others are doing. They maintain CATALOGS of folks where their demographics and preferences and personal info is included. And for each poll -- depending on the specific question and survey methodology -- they pick REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLES from those catalogues.

Hmmm, that's not what I've been reading.

How are people selected for your polls?​

Once numbers are selected through random digit dialing, the process of selecting respondents is different for landline and cellphone numbers. When interviewers reach someone on a landline phone, they randomly ask half the sample if they could speak with “the youngest male, 18 years of age or older, who is now at home” and the other half of the sample to speak with “the youngest female, 18 years of age or older, who is now at home.” If there is no eligible person of the requested gender at home, interviewers ask to speak with the youngest adult of the opposite gender, who is now at home. This method of selecting respondents within each household improves participation among young people who are often more difficult to interview than older people because of their lifestyles. Unlike a landline phone, a cellphone is assumed in Pew Research Center polls to be a personal device. This means that, for those in the cell sample, interviewers ask if the person who answers the cellphone is 18 years of age or older to determine if the person is eligible to complete the survey.​

Frequently Asked Questions

Why am I never asked to take a poll? You have roughly the same chance of being polled as anyone else living in the United States. This chance, however, is

www.pewresearch.org

That's how people ARE SCREENED for polls.. They ask you LEAD questions to determine IF you're "representive" of the people they are looking for and hung up with you if you aren't.. So -- it's misleading to TELL PEOPLE that polls are "random sampled"... They are not..

And the Survey Monkey kind of technique is more reliable if the catalogues are LARGE.. Commercial polling like Nielsen for TV/Radio has done "catalogs" for DECADES -- because they KNOW those people ARE responsive and reliable from their info on PREVIOUS polls...

Only way to DO 21st century national polling.

And Pew is fucked up if they ALWAYS select for "the YOUNGEST member of the household"... THERE'S a bias right there in their "representative sample"...

And if they ALLOW cell phone screenings -- they have NO FUCKING IDEA what STATE that phone is actually lives in..,. Another mistake..

Nice opinion piece.
Want to back that up with facts?
Or just keep it at pure conjecture?

You obviously already are way above your REAL interest level in polling.. Go Bing "survey monkey methodology" or READ the PEW methodology that was posted.. My responses are correct given their statements in the quote..

There's a BIG DIFF about randomly call to FIND "representative subjects" for a particular poll and just randomly polling polling EVERY person you call.

 

[Redcurtain]

 

[buckeye45_73]

Well, Well... Isn't that special... A poll that over samples democrats by 15% that shows Biden winning by 14%....

YAWN,,,,,,,

The sample is 45% Democrat 36% Republican. That is 9 points moron. There are more Democrats than there are Republicans in the country as a whole.

Political party strength in U.S. states - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Well all be all those red states have a higher democrat registration....I thought all those racists became republican....how weird..... the us is 6% more democrat, then you add into the fact that many of the dems vote republican and it's much much closer, but hey keep thinking you have that big of a lead, I'm cool with it.

Maybe you need to read the articles you post. The Gallup poll says when you include leaners, Democrats have a 50-38 edge over Republicans. Red states have a much lower population than blue states, Plus as population increases, the Republican vote gets weaker. Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida and Texas were 60%+ for Ronald Reagan and George Bush. Now Virginia is a lean Democrat state. North Carolina and Florida have been swing states. South Carolina and Texas are lean Republican states. Georgia is up for grabs in 2020.

IF you look Louisiana has a +11 D registtration advantage, did that just happend, demographics? OR something else?

 

[buckeye45_73]

Seems like an outlier, what they had 50% democrats to 35% republicans in this poll?
View attachment 397030

You will see in the ORIGINAL thread when the Mods Merge Dr.Love's thread with it, that I posted TWO Polls from 2016 and on October 10 2016 the SAME WSJ/NBC Poll had Hillary leading 14% and that 16 days later on October 26 2016 Associated Press their Poll had Hillary leading by 14 points and that was just 12 days before the election where the result was Hillary 48% and Trump 46% and she won the Popular Vote and he won the Electoral College Vote.

Oh! Lucy .............. That is true Hillary was ahead on all polls in 2016. You are missing something big. I mean BIG TIME.....
1. Americans did not go out to vote especially the African Americans.
2. Americans thought that Trump is white shining armor in a white horse that will destroy all these bad politics and corruptions. Best for the economy.

FAST FORWARD 3 years and 11 months.
1. Economy is near collapse with a record of WORST unemployment before election as zero job creation.
2. Pathological serial liar.
3. Total failure of handling the Coronavirus crisis with 200,000 deaths and counting. Total disregard of human being.
4. Millions of millions of Americans are sufferings financially, sick, unemployment, evictions, lost of health care coverage, businesses closures permanently, job losses. Americans are scared.
5. Racist supporters a of White supremacist. And against minorities.
6. Inciting violence against his fellow Americans the democrats.
7. Very corrupt, dishonest, disgusting behavior. Operate like mafia.
8. Only catered to certain group his base of whites.
9. He has not address the issue of police brutalities, racism, no health care plan, no plan to solve the CV crisis.
10. Banning of gay and lesbian in military. LBQT community has a very large members plus friends and families.
11. HS graduate students from last 3 years that are sick of school massacres will vote in record numbers.
12. This time African Americans will come out and votes in record breaking numbers like the BLM that is sweeping this country. and spilled to other countries in support of AF racial injustice.
13. A record numbers of life time republicans endorsing Biden.
14. Very low military support.


I can ASSURE you that Trump is in very BIG trouble on top of his own problems and his health.

And none of this is true...not a single one.

 

[busybee01]

I agree with the commentary below. I think this poll is a knee-jerk reaction to Trump's poor showing at the debate. I think Biden is going to win but not by 14.

Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time. ...​

​

Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who directed the survey with Democrat Jeff Horwitt, cautioned that the poll was conducted during an unsettled moment after the caustic presidential debate—“a shock to the system,” he called it—and could reflect a temporary reassessment of views. “The public can be taking a moment to say, ‘What did I just see, and how do I feel about it?’” he said. Mr. Trump could regain ground, Mr. McInturff said, given that “he has a history of bouncing back to some set point.” ...​

​

Messrs. Horwitt and McInturff said one factor was the debate, a decorum-destroying event in which the two candidates traded insults and continually talked over each other, with Mr. Trump interrupting his opponent more often. About three-quarters of voters said the event made no difference to their vote. But among the other 25%, a bigger share said the debate made them more likely to support Mr. Biden than Mr. Trump.​

​

While 84% of Democrats said Mr. Biden did a better job in the debate, 54% of Republicans said so of the president. Overall, half of voters said Mr. Biden performed better, with a quarter saying Mr. Trump did. Some 17% said neither candidate did well.​

​

Asked more broadly about the candidates’ personal qualities, voters by a two-to-one margin said Mr. Biden was better at displaying “the right temperament to be president,” 58% to 26%.​

​

“It is clear that the debate, and Mr. Trump’s behavior during it, reinforced the negative side of Mr. Trump personally for many respondents,” said Mr. Horwitt. He said the president “lost the American people on style more than substance.”​

Biden Scores 14-Point Lead Over Trump in Poll After Debate

President Trump is drawing his weakest voter support of the year following Tuesday’s debate with former Vice President Joe Biden, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

www.wsj.com

The poll is statistically useless (aka fake). Left leaning voters over sampled greater than 10% and women over sampled greater than 5%.

This is a critical time....they need to suppress Trump supporters who are enraged at the democrat party, eager to help get "The Original AOC, " on the Supreme Court, and understand that the democrat party plans to take over the country if they win.....

It is the Republican Party who is trying to take over the country. For example, they couldn't legislatively get rid of the ACA so they are trying to use the courts to get rid of it.

The ACA is unConstitutional.....

No it is not. The government can regulate the insurance industry. Tell us what part of the Constitution it violates.

That isn't what it did, twit.....it forced people to buy a product.....that is against the Constitution........the 1st, and 10th to be specific.....

You are the twit. People can be forced to buy a product if it is for the public good. It is constitutional. Since the mandate is no longer a part of it, it clearly is constitutional.

 

[busybee01]

Well, Well... Isn't that special... A poll that over samples democrats by 15% that shows Biden winning by 14%....

YAWN,,,,,,,

The sample is 45% Democrat 36% Republican. That is 9 points moron. There are more Democrats than there are Republicans in the country as a whole.

Political party strength in U.S. states - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Well all be all those red states have a higher democrat registration....I thought all those racists became republican....how weird..... the us is 6% more democrat, then you add into the fact that many of the dems vote republican and it's much much closer, but hey keep thinking you have that big of a lead, I'm cool with it.

Maybe you need to read the articles you post. The Gallup poll says when you include leaners, Democrats have a 50-38 edge over Republicans. Red states have a much lower population than blue states, Plus as population increases, the Republican vote gets weaker. Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida and Texas were 60%+ for Ronald Reagan and George Bush. Now Virginia is a lean Democrat state. North Carolina and Florida have been swing states. South Carolina and Texas are lean Republican states. Georgia is up for grabs in 2020.

IF you look Louisiana has a +11 D registtration advantage, did that just happend, demographics? OR something else?

This is a national poll not a Louisiana poll.

 

[Norman]

If Biden would win

1) It would be a stolen election.
2) These people would govern just the same way they got in power. End of the nation right there.

 

[buckeye45_73]

Well, Well... Isn't that special... A poll that over samples democrats by 15% that shows Biden winning by 14%....

YAWN,,,,,,,

The sample is 45% Democrat 36% Republican. That is 9 points moron. There are more Democrats than there are Republicans in the country as a whole.

Political party strength in U.S. states - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Well all be all those red states have a higher democrat registration....I thought all those racists became republican....how weird..... the us is 6% more democrat, then you add into the fact that many of the dems vote republican and it's much much closer, but hey keep thinking you have that big of a lead, I'm cool with it.

Maybe you need to read the articles you post. The Gallup poll says when you include leaners, Democrats have a 50-38 edge over Republicans. Red states have a much lower population than blue states, Plus as population increases, the Republican vote gets weaker. Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida and Texas were 60%+ for Ronald Reagan and George Bush. Now Virginia is a lean Democrat state. North Carolina and Florida have been swing states. South Carolina and Texas are lean Republican states. Georgia is up for grabs in 2020.

IF you look Louisiana has a +11 D registtration advantage, did that just happend, demographics? OR something else?

This is a national poll not a Louisiana poll.

No shit, but it gets complicated.....doesnt it?
Polls are unreliable....there is not a 9 point D registration over R in the US and we dont do popular vote, so it doesnt work that way.