Why Joe Biden is losing ground in key swing states

[RightNorLeft]

It remains something of a mystery why there is so little apprehension among liberal pundits and leading Democrats about the similarities between battleground-state polling for the 2020 presidential election and the 2016 contest pitting President Trump against Hillary Clinton — which as you might recall did not turn out as expected.

Consider the case of Wisconsin.


The RealClearPolitics average had Clinton up 6.5 points in Wisconsin on Election Day in 2016. In August of that year, she had been hovering at a 11.5 point advantage. Not a single poll featured on RCP during the entire campaign showed then-candidate Donald Trump winning the state. Yet when the chips were down in November, Trump had won the Badger State by fewer than 20,000 votes, edging out Clinton with a 0.7 percentage point average.


Now turn to 2020. As I write, Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden is up by 3.5 points in the RealClearPolitics average — which is to say, the ex-veep is underperforming Clinton in the middle of a pandemic and the economic collapse caused by the lockdowns.

Why Joe Biden is losing ground in key swing states

 

[SassyIrishLass]

The current situation in Kenosha isn't going to help Biden nor democrats.

I saw out of about 115 arrested in Kenosha 80 percent were from non Kenosha addresses.

Demoquacks think themselves clever...but they're not and decent Americans are weary of it all.

Biden can't win hiding in a basement....and any thinking person knows why he's hiding

 

[kyzr]

There is a 5%-7% or so "stealth" vote for Trump, democrats who poll for Biden when asked, but will vote for Trump in November, which proves the OP's point about 2016 in WI.
Also, Trump is polling way better for blacks than democrats are assuming, Biden's gaffes "if you don't vote for me you ain't black" etc, are costing him.
The riots and police endorsements are getting Trump suburban votes.
Now all we need is Biden to show up for the debates.

 

[JoeB131]

The RealClearPolitics average had Clinton up 6.5 points in Wisconsin on Election Day in 2016. In August of that year, she had been hovering at a 11.5 point advantage. Not a single poll featured on RCP during the entire campaign showed then-candidate Donald Trump winning the state. Yet when the chips were down in November, Trump had won the Badger State by fewer than 20,000 votes, edging out Clinton with a 0.7 percentage point average.

The problem there was that Gov. Scott had engaged in a massive program of voter suppression, which is why black turnout dropped from 72% in 2012 to 47% in 2016. That simply won't be the case this year. Gov. Evers has reversed a lot of the voter suppression from last time AND black folks are pretty motivated to vote after Geo. Floyd and Jacob Blake.

The problem you guys have is that the week of the convention should be the best it gets for Trump. Even in 2016, he was leading in the polls after his convention... this time, not so much. He's still trailing in five of the six key swing states.

 

[JoeB131]

There is a 5%-7% or so "stealth" vote for Trump, democrats who poll for Biden when asked, but will vote for Trump in November, which proves the OP's point about 2016 in WI.

No, actually, Wisconsin was a case of voter suppression, not polling errors, and it was the only one that the pollsters got horribly wrong. MI, PA, FL, and NC were all close, and the polls showed they were going to be close.

An October Surprise for Hillary was all that was needed to do her in.

Trump's problem going into November.

187,000 dead from Covid
6 million people sick
40 million jobs lost
100,000 businesses closed for good
A summer of Riots.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

The RealClearPolitics average had Clinton up 6.5 points in Wisconsin on Election Day in 2016. In August of that year, she had been hovering at a 11.5 point advantage. Not a single poll featured on RCP during the entire campaign showed then-candidate Donald Trump winning the state. Yet when the chips were down in November, Trump had won the Badger State by fewer than 20,000 votes, edging out Clinton with a 0.7 percentage point average.

The problem there was that Gov. Scott had engaged in a massive program of voter suppression, which is why black turnout dropped from 72% in 2012 to 47% in 2016. That simply won't be the case this year. Gov. Evers has reversed a lot of the voter suppression from last time AND black folks are pretty motivated to vote after Geo. Floyd and Jacob Blake.

The problem you guys have is that the week of the convention should be the best it gets for Trump. Even in 2016, he was leading in the polls after his convention... this time, not so much. He's still trailing in five of the six key swing states.

Who won 2016?

Good grief right up until 6PM election day you assholes thought the hag had it in the bag...next day you all vanished

 

[kyzr]

There is a 5%-7% or so "stealth" vote for Trump, democrats who poll for Biden when asked, but will vote for Trump in November, which proves the OP's point about 2016 in WI.

No, actually, Wisconsin was a case of voter suppression, not polling errors, and it was the only one that the pollsters got horribly wrong. MI, PA, FL, and NC were all close, and the polls showed they were going to be close.

An October Surprise for Hillary was all that was needed to do her in.

Trump's problem going into November.

187,000 dead from Covid
6 million people sick
40 million jobs lost
100,000 businesses closed for good
A summer of Riots.

187,000 dead from Covid Trump is NOT to blame, look at Cuomo and sending infected patients back to nursing homes.
6 million people sick If you get sick, you should have followed the guidelines. Its not Trump's fault.
40 million jobs lost Jobs are coming back slowly, we need that vaccine to get back to normal, its coming.
100,000 businesses closed Many of those closed businesses are because of democrat governors' and mayors' stupid shutdowns.
A summer of Riots. Riots in democrat cities are helping Trump as the polling shows, keep burning those slums down!

 

[Meathead]

It remains something of a mystery why there is so little apprehension among liberal pundits and leading Democrats about the similarities between battleground-state polling for the 2020 presidential election and the 2016 contest pitting President Trump against Hillary Clinton — which as you might recall did not turn out as expected.

Consider the case of Wisconsin.


The RealClearPolitics average had Clinton up 6.5 points in Wisconsin on Election Day in 2016. In August of that year, she had been hovering at a 11.5 point advantage. Not a single poll featured on RCP during the entire campaign showed then-candidate Donald Trump winning the state. Yet when the chips were down in November, Trump had won the Badger State by fewer than 20,000 votes, edging out Clinton with a 0.7 percentage point average.


Now turn to 2020. As I write, Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden is up by 3.5 points in the RealClearPolitics average — which is to say, the ex-veep is underperforming Clinton in the middle of a pandemic and the economic collapse caused by the lockdowns.

Why Joe Biden is losing ground in key swing states

BLM - Biden Losing Momentum

 

[Votto]

There is a 5%-7% or so "stealth" vote for Trump, democrats who poll for Biden when asked, but will vote for Trump in November, which proves the OP's point about 2016 in WI.
Also, Trump is polling way better for blacks than democrats are assuming, Biden's gaffes "if you don't vote for me you ain't black" etc, are costing him.
The riots and police endorsements are getting Trump suburban votes.
Now all we need is Biden to show up for the debates.

What people here are not considering is the effect of the cancel culture.

When polled, are people giving an accurate answer, or are they afraid to tell people who they are actually going to vote for for fear that something bad might happen to them?

It is akin to people in totalitarian regimes afraid to speak out against their political kings and queens so that bad things don't start happening to them.

 

[JimZiegelbauer]

It remains something of a mystery why there is so little apprehension among liberal pundits and leading Democrats about the similarities between battleground-state polling for the 2020 presidential election and the 2016 contest pitting President Trump against Hillary Clinton — which as you might recall did not turn out as expected.

Consider the case of Wisconsin.


The RealClearPolitics average had Clinton up 6.5 points in Wisconsin on Election Day in 2016. In August of that year, she had been hovering at a 11.5 point advantage. Not a single poll featured on RCP during the entire campaign showed then-candidate Donald Trump winning the state. Yet when the chips were down in November, Trump had won the Badger State by fewer than 20,000 votes, edging out Clinton with a 0.7 percentage point average.


Now turn to 2020. As I write, Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden is up by 3.5 points in the RealClearPolitics average — which is to say, the ex-veep is underperforming Clinton in the middle of a pandemic and the economic collapse caused by the lockdowns.

Why Joe Biden is losing ground in key swing states

I live in Wisconsin West Bend, 30 miles North of Hell hole Milwaukee and 50 miles North of the same Kenosha, The lies that Democrate say every day has caught up to them, WE know what is going on with the media and that statement Politicians make, POTUS Trump has come to Wisconsin many times, not for the votes but to listen to we the People COVID 19 all the numbers are false the 185,000 used every day in the media is wrong more like 10,000 the meidas numbers include Heartatacks and other disesase that are then used too blame COVID 19. We have a Democrate Govenor a wesale that r=taxes us to death and lies about closing work places and scholls but our Senate is controlled by Repiblican Fitgerals he apporves wht evers tries to do and is working to lower our taxes

 

[kyzr]

There is a 5%-7% or so "stealth" vote for Trump, democrats who poll for Biden when asked, but will vote for Trump in November, which proves the OP's point about 2016 in WI.
Also, Trump is polling way better for blacks than democrats are assuming, Biden's gaffes "if you don't vote for me you ain't black" etc, are costing him.
The riots and police endorsements are getting Trump suburban votes.
Now all we need is Biden to show up for the debates.

What people here are not considering is the effect of the cancel culture.

When polled, are people giving an accurate answer, or are they afraid to tell people who they are actually going to vote for for fear that something bad might happen to them?

It is akin to people in totalitarian regimes afraid to speak out against their political kings and queens so that bad things don't start happening to them.

Exactly. If you've ever worked in a blue city, or a state government, you soon learn not to show your Republican leanings.
The democrats run their urban plantations to keep them blue.
Look at the harassment Rand Paul had to endure just walking to his car. Imagine walking around a city with a MAGA hat. So who do you vote for in the election booth?

 

[Bob Blaylock]

The problem there was that Gov. Scott had engaged in a massive program of voter suppression, which is why black turnout dropped from 72% in 2012 to 47% in 2016.

No, actually, Wisconsin was a case of voter suppression, not polling errors…

This is a prime example of what happens when you put the shiny side inward.

 

[Norman]

Because the silent majority is communicating with each other and finding out it is acceptable to stand for president Trump and America.

 

[SmokeALib]

Because he's a dumbass?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

There is a 5%-7% or so "stealth" vote for Trump, democrats who poll for Biden when asked, but will vote for Trump in November, which proves the OP's point about 2016 in WI.

No, actually, Wisconsin was a case of voter suppression, not polling errors, and it was the only one that the pollsters got horribly wrong. MI, PA, FL, and NC were all close, and the polls showed they were going to be close.

An October Surprise for Hillary was all that was needed to do her in.

Trump's problem going into November.

187,000 dead from Covid
6 million people sick
40 million jobs lost
100,000 businesses closed for good
A summer of Riots.

6,000,000 people sick?

 

[LeftofLeft]

There is a 5%-7% or so "stealth" vote for Trump, democrats who poll for Biden when asked, but will vote for Trump in November, which proves the OP's point about 2016 in WI.

No, actually, Wisconsin was a case of voter suppression, not polling errors, and it was the only one that the pollsters got horribly wrong. MI, PA, FL, and NC were all close, and the polls showed they were going to be close.

An October Surprise for Hillary was all that was needed to do her in.

Trump's problem going into November.

187,000 dead from Covid
6 million people sick
40 million jobs lost
100,000 businesses closed for good
A summer of Riots.

Businesses were closed due to lockdowns pushed by Democrats and riots that took a dip in the polls for Democrats too condemn. Trump has been pushing to open back up as quickly as possible and Democrats accused him of putting jobs and businesses before lives. Further, Biden has no plan to get the small businesses back. His priorities lie in green deals.

 

[LeftofLeft]

There is a 5%-7% or so "stealth" vote for Trump, democrats who poll for Biden when asked, but will vote for Trump in November, which proves the OP's point about 2016 in WI.

No, actually, Wisconsin was a case of voter suppression, not polling errors, and it was the only one that the pollsters got horribly wrong. MI, PA, FL, and NC were all close, and the polls showed they were going to be close.

An October Surprise for Hillary was all that was needed to do her in.

Trump's problem going into November.

187,000 dead from Covid
6 million people sick
40 million jobs lost
100,000 businesses closed for good
A summer of Riots.

How was Wisconsin “voter suppression?”

 

[easyt65]

Joe Biden's pathetic attempt to blame President Trump for the foreign-funded, Democrat facilitated out-of-control violence & terrorism in Democrat politician-run cities is adding to the turn away from Biden and Democrats.

 

[Toro]

There is a 5%-7% or so "stealth" vote for Trump, democrats who poll for Biden when asked, but will vote for Trump in November, which proves the OP's point about 2016 in WI.

That's not true. There was no evidence of a "stealth vote" where people said they were voting for Hillary but voted for Trump.

Instead, what pollsters missed in certain states in 2016 was that they under-sampled non-college-educated white people and over-sampled college-educated white people. What they found was that the latter was much more likely to pick up the phone and tell pollsters what they thought than the former.

Pollsters have adjusted for that now, putting more weight on non-college educated whites and less on college-educated whites. That doesn't mean they are going to be dead-on correct. But it does mean that they've recognized what they missed in 2016 and adjusted for it.

 

[wamose]

Because he approves of all the violence happening around this country. His party has become something most Americans despise. MAGA