Why Joe Biden is losing ground in key swing states

[Toro]

BTW, it is true that Trump is currently polling marginally better with blacks and better with Hispanics. But across virtually all other demographics - including non-college-educated whites and senior citizens, both won by Trump last election - he is polling ahead of where Hillary was in 2016.

Also in 2016, the percentage of people who were undecided was in the high-teens. Those people broke decidedly in favor of Trump. Today, that number is in the mid- to high-single digits. So if you are comparing 2016 to 2020, the electorate was much more fluid back then compared to now. IOW a 6% lead by Hillary back then was a softer lead than a 6% lead by Biden now. There are very few people undecided about Trump.

Doesn't mean Trump is certain to lose, of course. It's still August.

 

[22lcidw]

There is a 5%-7% or so "stealth" vote for Trump, democrats who poll for Biden when asked, but will vote for Trump in November, which proves the OP's point about 2016 in WI.

No, actually, Wisconsin was a case of voter suppression, not polling errors, and it was the only one that the pollsters got horribly wrong. MI, PA, FL, and NC were all close, and the polls showed they were going to be close.

An October Surprise for Hillary was all that was needed to do her in.

Trump's problem going into November.

187,000 dead from Covid
6 million people sick
40 million jobs lost
100,000 businesses closed for good
A summer of Riots.

A Prog Socialist's work is never done.

 

[22lcidw]

BTW, it is true that Trump is currently polling marginally better with blacks and better with Hispanics. But across virtually all other demographics - including non-college-educated whites and senior citizens, both won by Trump last election - he is polling ahead of where Hillary was in 2016.

Also in 2016, the percentage of people who were undecided was in the high-teens. Those people broke decidedly in favor of Trump. Today, that number is in the mid- to high-single digits. So if you are comparing 2016 to 2020, the electorate was much more fluid back then compared to now. IOW a 6% lead by Hillary back then was a softer lead than a 6% lead by Biden now. There are very few people undecided about Trump.

Doesn't mean Trump is certain to lose, of course. It's still August.

People now realize what the stakes are. If Biden wins I will laugh everyday watching the all powerful state fumble its way through massive amount of resources and becoming even more and more fascist. To see taxes rise and gasoline back up to the Obama 5 dollar a gallon level will be justice for the fools who voted them back in.

 

[wamose]

People are just having a hard time believing Biden. He says things like, I'll assemble the best doctors (WHO), I have a plan (let's hear it). We take right over wrong, light over dark and bla, bla, bla. What does any of that bullshit even mean? If you said nothing, you're right. He talks in hopeful but imaginary platitudes, just like Hillary did. He's 0 for 47 right now. This is no time to put him in the starting lineup. MAGA

 

[kyzr]

BTW, it is true that Trump is currently polling marginally better with blacks and better with Hispanics. But across virtually all other demographics - including non-college-educated whites and senior citizens, both won by Trump last election - he is polling ahead of where Hillary was in 2016.

Also in 2016, the percentage of people who were undecided was in the high-teens. Those people broke decidedly in favor of Trump. Today, that number is in the mid- to high-single digits. So if you are comparing 2016 to 2020, the electorate was much more fluid back then compared to now. IOW a 6% lead by Hillary back then was a softer lead than a 6% lead by Biden now. There are very few people undecided about Trump.

Doesn't mean Trump is certain to lose, of course. It's still August.

Trump will do better with minorities in 2020 than in 2016
Trump is gaining in suburbia due to the riots and the defund the police policy.
Trump is gaining with blue-collar workers
Trump has the police union vote and the "law and order" crowd.
I like Trump's chances.

 

[pyetro]

It remains something of a mystery why there is so little apprehension among liberal pundits and leading Democrats about the similarities between battleground-state polling for the 2020 presidential election and the 2016 contest pitting President Trump against Hillary Clinton — which as you might recall did not turn out as expected.

Consider the case of Wisconsin.


The RealClearPolitics average had Clinton up 6.5 points in Wisconsin on Election Day in 2016. In August of that year, she had been hovering at a 11.5 point advantage. Not a single poll featured on RCP during the entire campaign showed then-candidate Donald Trump winning the state. Yet when the chips were down in November, Trump had won the Badger State by fewer than 20,000 votes, edging out Clinton with a 0.7 percentage point average.


Now turn to 2020. As I write, Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden is up by 3.5 points in the RealClearPolitics average — which is to say, the ex-veep is underperforming Clinton in the middle of a pandemic and the economic collapse caused by the lockdowns.

Why Joe Biden is losing ground in key swing states

Only in Trafalgar, a Republican pollster.

 

[JoeB131]

187,000 dead from Covid Trump is NOT to blame, look at Cuomo and sending infected patients back to nursing homes.

NY had a lower death rate at Nursing homes compared to the rest of the country. Sorry, man, Trump owns Covid.

If you get sick, you should have followed the guidelines. Its not Trump's fault.

You go with that, buddy. Seriously,

Jobs are coming back slowly, we need that vaccine to get back to normal, its coming.

Jobs aren't coming back all that soon, and a vaccine won't fix everything.

Many of those closed businesses are because of democrat governors' and mayors' stupid shutdowns.

And many of them are because Trump so weakened the economy.

Riots in democrat cities are helping Trump as the polling shows, keep burning those slums down!

Except he's really not gaining in the polls. Eventually, people will hold him accountable for the actions of riot wing hate groups getting involved.

 

[JoeB131]

This is a prime example of what happens when you put the shiny side inward.

You are prime example of what happens when you put the Magic Underwear on backwards.

 

[JoeB131]

How was Wisconsin “voter suppression?”

Educate yourself. If possible.

Voter Suppression

With Scott Walker leading the charge, Wisconsin Republicans have systematically sought to make voting more difficult and manipulate state law.

onewisconsinnow.org

 

[Oddball]

The RealClearPolitics average had Clinton up 6.5 points in Wisconsin on Election Day in 2016. In August of that year, she had been hovering at a 11.5 point advantage. Not a single poll featured on RCP during the entire campaign showed then-candidate Donald Trump winning the state. Yet when the chips were down in November, Trump had won the Badger State by fewer than 20,000 votes, edging out Clinton with a 0.7 percentage point average.

The problem there was that Gov. Scott had engaged in a massive program of voter suppression, which is why black turnout dropped from 72% in 2012 to 47% in 2016. That simply won't be the case this year. Gov. Evers has reversed a lot of the voter suppression from last time AND black folks are pretty motivated to vote after Geo. Floyd and Jacob Blake.

The problem you guys have is that the week of the convention should be the best it gets for Trump. Even in 2016, he was leading in the polls after his convention... this time, not so much. He's still trailing in five of the six key swing states.

 

[Toro]

People now realize what the stakes are. If Biden wins I will laugh everyday watching the all powerful state fumble its way through massive amount of resources and becoming even more and more fascist. To see taxes rise and gasoline back up to the Obama 5 dollar a gallon level will be justice for the fools who voted them back in.

I like what Trump has done with taxes and regulations, but the largest increase in government involvement since FDR edited: LBJ has come under this President. What this administration did in March and April would have made Bernie Sanders blush.

 

[LeftofLeft]

How was Wisconsin “voter suppression?”

Educate yourself. If possible.

Voter Suppression

With Scott Walker leading the charge, Wisconsin Republicans have systematically sought to make voting more difficult and manipulate state law.

onewisconsinnow.org

Educate yourself on how to retort with facts that support your statement and not some butt-hurt opinion piece on mitigating voter fraud vulnerabilities.

 

[EvilCat Breath]

Democrats are rightly being blamed for all of their creations including the communist civil war. Trump is now tying his reelection to support for the police which will send his popularity into the stratosphere.

 

[Nostra]

The RealClearPolitics average had Clinton up 6.5 points in Wisconsin on Election Day in 2016. In August of that year, she had been hovering at a 11.5 point advantage. Not a single poll featured on RCP during the entire campaign showed then-candidate Donald Trump winning the state. Yet when the chips were down in November, Trump had won the Badger State by fewer than 20,000 votes, edging out Clinton with a 0.7 percentage point average.

The problem there was that Gov. Scott had engaged in a massive program of voter suppression, which is why black turnout dropped from 72% in 2012 to 47% in 2016. That simply won't be the case this year. Gov. Evers has reversed a lot of the voter suppression from last time AND black folks are pretty motivated to vote after Geo. Floyd and Jacob Blake.

The problem you guys have is that the week of the convention should be the best it gets for Trump. Even in 2016, he was leading in the polls after his convention... this time, not so much. He's still trailing in five of the six key swing states.

The problem there was that Gov. Scott had engaged in a massive program of voter suppression, which is why black turnout dropped from 72% in 2012 to 47% in 2016.

I'm sure the fact Dimwingers were running Hitlery instead of Barry had nothing to do with black voter turnout, right? What was turnout pre-Barry for blacks in WI?

And list what Scott did to suppress the black vote. Be specific..

 

[The Original Tree]

The RealClearPolitics average had Clinton up 6.5 points in Wisconsin on Election Day in 2016. In August of that year, she had been hovering at a 11.5 point advantage. Not a single poll featured on RCP during the entire campaign showed then-candidate Donald Trump winning the state. Yet when the chips were down in November, Trump had won the Badger State by fewer than 20,000 votes, edging out Clinton with a 0.7 percentage point average.

The problem there was that Gov. Scott had engaged in a massive program of voter suppression, which is why black turnout dropped from 72% in 2012 to 47% in 2016. That simply won't be the case this year. Gov. Evers has reversed a lot of the voter suppression from last time AND black folks are pretty motivated to vote after Geo. Floyd and Jacob Blake.

The problem you guys have is that the week of the convention should be the best it gets for Trump. Even in 2016, he was leading in the polls after his convention... this time, not so much. He's still trailing in five of the six key swing states.

Please explain this voter suppression that never happened.

 

[Votto]

BTW, it is true that Trump is currently polling marginally better with blacks and better with Hispanics. But across virtually all other demographics - including non-college-educated whites and senior citizens, both won by Trump last election - he is polling ahead of where Hillary was in 2016.

Also in 2016, the percentage of people who were undecided was in the high-teens. Those people broke decidedly in favor of Trump. Today, that number is in the mid- to high-single digits. So if you are comparing 2016 to 2020, the electorate was much more fluid back then compared to now. IOW a 6% lead by Hillary back then was a softer lead than a 6% lead by Biden now. There are very few people undecided about Trump.

Doesn't mean Trump is certain to lose, of course. It's still August.

Trump will do better with minorities in 2020 than in 2016
Trump is gaining in suburbia due to the riots and the defund the police policy.
Trump is gaining with blue-collar workers
Trump has the police union vote and the "law and order" crowd.
I like Trump's chances.

I'd say with the rioting and Dims showing their ass Trump may win.

 

[Nostra]

How was Wisconsin “voter suppression?”

Educate yourself. If possible.

Voter Suppression

With Scott Walker leading the charge, Wisconsin Republicans have systematically sought to make voting more difficult and manipulate state law.

onewisconsinnow.org

Press release headlines from your "source".



Right-Wing Supporters of Dan Kelly Go to Court to Tip Electoral Scales in His Favor

Right Wing Launches Campaign to Bully Wisconsin Elections Commission Into Voter Roll Purge

Board of Regents Picks Pandering to Right-Wing Politicians Over Protecting Students

Right-Wing Legislators Propose Spending $500,000 a Year on Misinformation Campaign Targeting Wisconsin Women

Right-Wing Legislators Who Want to Outlaw Abortion and Birth Control Now Targeting Science


Got a real source, Numbnuts?

 

[JoeB131]

ducate yourself on how to retort with facts that support your statement and not some butt-hurt opinion piece on mitigating voter fraud vulnerabilities.

If you douchebags spent half the time addressing issues of the minority community you spend trying to suppress their votes, you might make some progress.

Please explain this voter suppression that never happened.

I already did.. But Scott is gone now, and the electorate is engaged..

 

[RightNorLeft]

The RealClearPolitics average had Clinton up 6.5 points in Wisconsin on Election Day in 2016. In August of that year, she had been hovering at a 11.5 point advantage. Not a single poll featured on RCP during the entire campaign showed then-candidate Donald Trump winning the state. Yet when the chips were down in November, Trump had won the Badger State by fewer than 20,000 votes, edging out Clinton with a 0.7 percentage point average.

The problem there was that Gov. Scott had engaged in a massive program of voter suppression, which is why black turnout dropped from 72% in 2012 to 47% in 2016. That simply won't be the case this year. Gov. Evers has reversed a lot of the voter suppression from last time AND black folks are pretty motivated to vote after Geo. Floyd and Jacob Blake.

The problem you guys have is that the week of the convention should be the best it gets for Trump. Even in 2016, he was leading in the polls after his convention... this time, not so much. He's still trailing in five of the six key swing states.

View attachment 382576

Gif of a typical antifa wanker

 

[LeftofLeft]

ducate yourself on how to retort with facts that support your statement and not some butt-hurt opinion piece on mitigating voter fraud vulnerabilities.

If you douchebags spent half the time addressing issues of the minority community you spend trying to suppress their votes, you might make some progress.

Please explain this voter suppression that never happened.

I already did.. But Scott is gone now, and the electorate is engaged..

If you douchebags spent half the time addressing issues of the minority community you spend trying to suppress their votes, you might make some progress.

Where are individual minorities standing up detailing how they were suppressed?

When Democrats pull shit like stuffing ballot boxes and registering fake people, that is voter suppression.