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West Coast Mega-Earthquake (8-9+) Predicted THIS WEEK

paravani

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Hello, All!

This is to notify you that a very large earthquake measuring 8 to 9+ on the Richter scale could strike the West Coast of the United States this week, possibly as early as today.

Water is the most important essential to store. Human beings can only last three days without water -- then our kidneys shut down and we die. Please store water sufficient to last your families for three months, as a major earthquake is likely to knock out public water systems for a considerable amount of time, and to cause widespread infrastructure damage that will delay repairs to our water systems.

The minimum recommended amount of water for drinking and hydration is 1/2 gallon per day per person.


Why do I believe that a major earthquake is imminent?

I've been following earthquake activity worldwide for the last three years, with a particular focus on the Pacific Northwest because we are WAY overdue for our once-every-235-years "Cascadia Subduction Zone" mega-quake.

The last mega-quake here occurred at about 9pm on January 26th, 1700. It was about 9 on the Richter scale, the size of Japan's big quake last March. We know exactly what day it occurred because it generated a tsunami that wiped out Japanese fishing villages, so they wrote about it in their record-books.

It's been 312 quiet years since then... and that's the longest period we've had without a mega-quake on the West Coast since before the invention of the wheel. Source: See the time scale at the bottom of page 8 at the Oregon Department of Geology publication Cascadia Winter 2010

Cascadia Subduction Zone mega-quakes occur when the jagged Juan de Fuca plate "subducts" under the continental plate. Because this earthquake happens all along the coast all at once, the earthquake generated is felt along hundreds of miles of shoreline, and far inland.

Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Eugene, Medford, and Vancouver and Victoria BC are all at risk of severe damage during a subduction zone event.

Please refer to the earthquake map at USGS. Center it on the west coast of the US, choose "30 days, all" and slide the "Magnitude" button to about 3.0 to see the quakes in the following discussion:


Over the past three years, major earthquakes have been striking the west coast of South America, slowly working their way northward. There have been earthquakes in Chile, Peru, Colombia, and more recently in Mexico.

Two weeks ago, a very large 7.7 earthquake struck off the west coast of Canada, just north of Vancouver Island. Aftershocks of magnitude 4 and above are still occurring almost daily.

At 7:35 PST yesterday morning (Nov. 7), another very large 7.4 earthquake struck the West Coast of Mexico, along the equatorial portion of the same faultline.

Then last night at 6:00pm PST, there was a 6.3 earthquake west of Vancouver Island, Canada. This quake is centered on the upper tip of the Juan de Fuca plate, and it is NOT an aftershock of the 7.7 quake two weeks ago. It's directly on top of the subduction zone fault, and it represents a significant uptick in the area's seismic activity, which has been gradually increasing since I began to study it three years ago.

This earthquake follows the pattern of a foreshock, similar to the magnitude 6+ earthquakes that preceded the mega-quake in Japan last year.

I strongly advise all West Coast residents to prepare for a catastrophically large earthquake, and to store plenty of water, blankets, and food that doesn't need cooking.

Secure your homes; check for heavy objects that may fall; make sure that your first aid kits are complete with splinting supplies and large bandages; and make plans with everyone in your family to meet at a designated place in an emergency.

And please, if you find this thread to be of value to you or loved ones, add a post to bump it up.

-- Paravani
 
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paravani

paravani

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Does anyone here live on the West Coast? Anyone at all?

-- Paravani
 

Avatar4321

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Who is doing the predicting. It doesnt seem clear in your post
 
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paravani

paravani

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Who is doing the predicting. It doesnt seem clear in your post

I am, Avatar. I've been studying the seismic stability of the Pacific Northwest for over three years, and I check into USGS several times daily.

I hope that our long-overdue mega-quake doesn't come this week... I hope that it doesn't come this decade! ... But while the earth is going through a particularly active period, with many more large earthquakes in the last seven years than in all the forty years previous to that, we on the West Coast are at great risk.

So I watch, and prepare, and hope that I'll have time to make sure all my loved ones are safe when the time comes.

I predicted the Japanese mega-quake last year, and recognized that the first three Honshu quakes were foreshocks when everyone else thought that they were the main shock and two after-shocks.

There was another foreshock measuring 4.5 off the coast of Canada/Washington at 1:07pm PST today.

So please, any of you who don't have a disaster plan in place, please take care of that now.

-- Paravani
 

syrenn

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Well, I hope it doesn't, but if it does happen, best of luck.


it will always happen.... sooner or later, it happens. Its part and parcel of living here. Just like tornadoes will come through tornado alley.....
 

Uncensored2008

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Si modo

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One of these days, maybe I'll experience one.

Lived a good few years in the midwest and never saw a freaking tornado, so damn.
 

HUGGY

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I'm in Seattle. Lived up here about 90% of my 63 years.

I have lots of water ..dozens of unused bathtubs I can fill immediately. A nice generator. Several gallons of gasoline. I can run my fridge and cook. Lots of blankets and sleeping bags. My two huge pit bulls give off mega heat so sleeping is already comfortable with the heat off.

Been through three 6-7 ish quakes already.

Earthquakes are not really that devastating around here.
 

WillowTree

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One of these days, maybe I'll experience one.

Lived a good few years in the midwest and never saw a freaking tornado, so damn.

You don't want to either. Trust me. I've been in earthquakes, Hurricanes, Floods, and Tornados, Ice storms, snow storms, and blizzards. The earthquakes are the very worst.
 

TruthSeeker56

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I'm in Seattle. Lived up here about 90% of my 63 years.

I have lots of water ..dozens of unused bathtubs I can fill immediately. A nice generator. Several gallons of gasoline. I can run my fridge and cook. Lots of blankets and sleeping bags. My two huge pit bulls give off mega heat so sleeping is already comfortable with the heat off.

Been through three 6-7 ish quakes already.

Earthquakes are not really that devastating around here.

Have any firearms to protect your water and generator and gasoline and fridge and blankets and sleeping bags and pit bulls?

Or are you just going to scare people off by wearing your Obama Halloween costume?
 

HUGGY

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I'm in Seattle. Lived up here about 90% of my 63 years.

I have lots of water ..dozens of unused bathtubs I can fill immediately. A nice generator. Several gallons of gasoline. I can run my fridge and cook. Lots of blankets and sleeping bags. My two huge pit bulls give off mega heat so sleeping is already comfortable with the heat off.

Been through three 6-7 ish quakes already.

Earthquakes are not really that devastating around here.

Have any firearms to protect your water and generator and gasoline and fridge and blankets and sleeping bags and pit bulls?

Or are you just going to scare people off by wearing your Obama Halloween costume?

I'm covered. I have everything needed to gaurantee my safety and survival against any concievable attack. That's what I do here at the motel. Run off gang bangers, whores, pimps, druggies, drug dealers, homeless tryin to break into the rooms. It's gettin old honestly. Spozed to be a three or four month "favor". Been three years. The whole place is fenced off and I'm on the third floor. It would be damn near impossible to get up to my rooms without gettin killed. It would take a dozen or so of some very determined people and most if not all would die in the effort. I am a damn good shot but frankly a 120 lb male and a 70 lb female pit bull is an awesome deterrent.
 
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paravani

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It isn't just an earthquake, but a Subduction Zone Event, or SZE.

The word "earthquake" doesn't quite communicate that what we are talking about here isn't just a little shake-n-shimmy. Rather, it's the massive readjustment of two entire continental plates that have been slowly building up more than ten yards -- that's thirty feet -- of tension between them over a period of three centuries. When that much earth shifts over a span of six hundred miles, the power is truly awesome -- and more destructive than you can imagine.

I've been studying earthquakes for years, and it still terrifies me when I think our SZE may be imminent... as I do now. :eek:

... So please pardon the wet spot... :redface:

Have any firearms to protect your water and generator and gasoline and fridge and blankets and sleeping bags and pit bulls?

Or are you just going to scare people off by wearing your Obama Halloween costume?

My hubby and I weren't comfortable with the idea of being stuck in the city in the aftermath of a Subduction Zone Event.

I've worked as an engineer for City Light, and I'm not at all confident that our dams will hold. The youngest and largest of the dams in the Cascades in Skagit county, Ross Dam, is more than sixty years old. The next youngest is Diablo, which was built in 1929.

If either of those dams or any other major generation facilities are significantly damaged -- which is likely -- it may be quite some time before our power systems are back up and running. :eek:

Much of downtown Seattle is built on fill soil that was trucked in from the Denny "regrade" area at the base of Queen Anne hill. You can expect that soil to liquify in an earthquake. :eek:

Furthermore, Seattle is built right on top of the "Seattle Fault". When my brothers and I were kids, you could see the fault when you drove past it on the freeway: the earth on the side of the hill just south of downtown is layered, and at the fault the layers don't match up.

Geologists think it is very likely that a Cascadia SZE would release any built-up stresses along other major faults on the West Coast, such as the Seattle Fault, the Portland West Hills fault, and the San Andreas fault. :eek:

Much of the public water supply is held in large above-ground cisterns -- water towers -- that could conceivably topple in a large earthquake. Pipes will break; and clean water may not be available in most or all of the city for weeks. :eek:

Of course, there are still lots of rivers and lakes on the West Coast... but we haven't exactly been keeping them clean, have we? :uhoh3: So in order to use that water, people will need to have filters and/or water purification tablets stored in advance. Those items won't be easily available after the fact.

More good news? Oh, yeah, roads. None of the freeway overpasses built before 1995 were constructed to meet modern seismic standards. Your best bet for north-south travel in the aftermath is along 405 -- but I wouldn't count on even that.

Pray you aren't in downtown Seattle, where the glass will pile up two to three feet deep in the streets, and the Key Tower will knock against the Columbia Center. :eek:

(City Light is in the Key Tower. When we were hit with a minor earthquake, the civil engineers got busy calculating the range of motion of both towers. In a 7 or greater earthquake, they'll sway enough to collide at their top floors.)

And we all know the Alaskan Way viaduct will do an Alameda. :eek:

Downtown Portland may experience severe tsunami-related flooding hours or days after the event, as the tsunami works its way up the Columbia and the Willamette. :eek:

Oh, and that hill behind downtown Portland? That hill marks the West Hills fault, where one landmass moves up and the other moves down. All those expensive mansions and condos up there? ... I think you can guess the rest. :eek:

So... what to do in the aftermath if you were one of the smart ones who got ready? What will others do when they're dying of thirst and the lakes are too filthy to drink? What will they do when they're hungry and they smell your food? :eek:

My hubby and I didn't like those questions, nor the answers that might be given even if we were armed.

So, we moved away from the city. Now we live next to a year-round creek in a neighborhood that can only be reached by one bridge, and there's plenty of dynamite nearby to blow that if necessary. :D

We aren't rude enough to ask our neighbors whether they're prepared for a disaster; but when the power went out for two weeks last winter, several of our neighbors already had generators. We're fairly certain that most of them have food, too; and the creek can take care of our water needs forever. :cool:

-- Paravani
 
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Wry Catcher

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I live in the East Bay, about 30 miles east of downtown San Francisco. My Grandfather lived through the '06 quake and I recall he referred to the event (he was 12 at the time) always as "The Fire". He and his two older brothers walked from North Beach where they lived (two blocks from Washington Square, for those who know the area) to Market Street that morning and he remembered dead horses in the streets and general chaos. Only later, when the fires started, did they head home and rejoin their parents.

My dad worked with his dad at the City Hall in SF and in March 1957 a 5.7 quake struck near the epicenter of the '06 quake. My dad told me his dad and the Judge, who both lived experienced the great quake of '06, watched the pillars at the City Hall sway and calmly told him this was a Little one. On that day I was taking a spelling test (I was in the fourth grade - and the teacher (we had a sub that day) didn't miss a beat and continued with the test as the ceiling lights swayed and some of the kids yelled out in fright.

In '89 I left work early to watch the World Series at a hotel near my office with several of my colleagues. We parked at the back of the hotel adjacent to the tarmac of a general services airport. After parking, and while listening to the pre-game on the radio, the radio went off and the van I drove (A 3/4 ton Dodge) began to shake. It took us a moment to realize "earthquake" and when I got out of the van I watched the runway undulate, mindful of swells on the beach.

That said, I have gallons of water, canned goods and our camping gear all in a shed in our yard. Twice a year we change out the food and water. I also have a generator and a propane grill, lots of first aid equipment, batteries, a battery operated TV and a solar radio. I never let our van go below 1/2 tank of gas and make sure our cell phones are charged, and we all have shoes or slippers next to our beds so to avoid broken glass.
 

sfcalifornia

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I was here in San Francisco for the '89 earthquake and it was a doozy. As strong as it was, I'm amazed the damaged wasn't more extensive than it was. Doesn't mean we should be complacent though. I am woefully unprepared for the next one. Whether Paravani's prediction is accurate or not, thank you for reminding me that I need to get my butt in gear and get ready for the next one.

I have to admit, I do find them exciting. For a brief moment in time, the entire community stops and rides the quake through. We're all in it together.
 

Big Black Dog

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I hope it comes and completely destroys the whole state of California. Give Nevada some beach front property.
 

Avatar4321

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Hope it doesnt happen
 

CrotchetyGeezer

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Does anyone here live on the West Coast? Anyone at all?

-- Paravani

Well, I don't live on the west coast but, I'm not a LONG ways away from it. I'm a good distance away from it but I'm still somewhat close and thereabouts. I suspect it's possible that a quake on the coast could impact my area and, also, a quake here might be a portents to a bigger one on the coast, or vice versa.
 

Grandma

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Even if the BIG ONE doesn't happen there will be plenty of big localized earthquakes sooner or later. Have disaster supplies ready beforehand, people.
 

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