candycorn
Diamond Member
If we’re still conducting operations in the Summer (today is the first day of Spring), would it fair to call this excursion/strike/campaign/war/act of war/expedition a failure?
Was this outcome anticipated? If it wasn't, why not?
- Thread starter berg80
- Start date
If we’re still conducting operations in the Summer (today is the first day of Spring), would it fair to call this excursion/strike/campaign/war/act of war/expedition a failure?
kyzr
Diamond Member
Define failure. Failure is not necessarily a failure to achieve all objectives.
Keeping Iran from promoting terrorism thru Hamas, Hezbollah, or the Houthis, is a good thing.
But to your point about prolonged military action, if the US hasn't achieved regime change by the summer, its not a win but its not a loss. I expect to take Kharg island and control Iran's finances by the summer. What I don't know is if we can get the Jihadis and IRGC out of power by then. Victory can be defined many ways, regime change isn't one of them.
Trump's 4 objectives are:
Destroy Iran's missiles (in-progress)
Sink Iran's Navy (achieved)
Prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons (finding 440 kg of uranium won't be easy)
Prevent Iran from funding terrorists (taking Kharg island and controlling Iran's finances would accomplish this)
A complete victory would be regime change without US boots on the ground hunting down the IRGC like we hunted down Saddam's criminal crew using a deck of cards.
candycorn
Diamond Member
Great...lets look at your list.
If we haven’t done all of that in 90 days, will you call it a failure?
kyzr
Diamond Member
I'd call it a "partial success" if all 4 objectives are not accomplished.
Why are you so negative on "de-fanging" Iran"?
Their crazy mullahs are very destabilizing in the region.
One strategy to avoid "boots on the ground" is to not achieve regime change, but to "mow the grass" whenever Iran starts developing offensive missiles or nuclear weapons like we're doing now.
Is that a "failure"? No. Its just not achieving regime change.
If we can take Kharg island and control their finances, that would put a lot of pressure on them, we'll see how that plays out.
candycorn
Diamond Member
Wow, a partial success? At what point are you willing to enlist...we’ll clearly need ground troops if we’re still bombing 90 days from now?
Why are you so scared to enlist and stand by your fervor to kill someone?
Again...when are you enlisting instead of hiding behind a keyboard?
If it’s that important...send your kids....
Let me guess....you’ll suddenly find a reason to not send your kids or go yourself.
Isn’t part of the reason for doing this was to stop the killing of Iranians?
Its nice now that you’re calling indiscrimiate bombing of Iran...”mowing grass”.
kyzr
Diamond Member
I have two grandsons who are active duty protecting your ungrateful ass.
Yes, the IRGC killed 32,000 protesters. We are targeting the IRGC.
The bombing is not "indiscriminate", it is targeted against the IRGC and offensive weapons like missiles and drones.
We already destroyed their centrifuges hidden deep underground to slow their nuclear weapons program.
"mowing the grass" is what the military calls periodic bombing of slow learner bad actors.
berg80
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Kuwait says Strait of Hormuz closure is beyond catastrophic, will trigger domino effect across global economy
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned earlier this month that the Iran war would have “catastrophic consequences” for the world economy. Nasser understated the impact of the Strait’s closure, Al-Sabah said.“It’s a domino effect,” Al-Sabah said. “The costs of this war don’t stay within geographical lines in this region. They extend all the way through the supply chain.”
It will take months for oil production in the Gulf to reach full capacity because Kuwait and its neighbors have shut oil wells, Al-Sabah said. Kuwait was producing about 2.6 million barrels per day prior to the war, making it the fifth-largest producer in OPEC.
“We have resilient reservoirs that bring out quite a bit of production immediately — within a few days,” Al-Sabah said. “The bulk of it will come within a few weeks and then the full production will come within three or four months.”
Kuwait says Strait of Hormuz closure is beyond catastrophic, will trigger domino effect across global economy
Iran is holding the world economy hostage by blockading the Strait of Hormuz, said Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, the CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation.
www.cnbc.com
DOTARD!
berg80
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- #248
Part of the problem is Dotard's lack of strategic thinking. He can barely consider what happens tomorrow let alone months down the road.
At the start of the year, the Russian economy looked to be giving way. Under the strain of war and sanctions, revenues were falling, production was shrinking and trade was running low. With rising tariffs, credit was prohibitively expensive and borrowing all but impossible: A wave of bankruptcies was on the horizon. In late January, Russia was forced to sell oil to India at just $22 per barrel, about a third of the market rate. As a symbol of unsustainability, it was hard to beat.
President Vladimir Putin has heard such complaints throughout the war. Yet, according to those around him, he has chosen largely not to listen. Officials and business leaders, for their part, understood that the continuation of the war was his absolute priority and that the country’s economic situation was of little consequence. But in February something shifted. Mr. Putin began, suddenly, to pay attention to the flagging economy. There were even signs he might be changing his mind on negotiations with Ukraine, perhaps seeking an exit from the conflict.
Then came the war in Iran. In one swoop, the conditions for conciliation were overturned. Amid buoyant oil prices, Western division and American overreach, the pressure on Mr. Putin to come to terms ebbed away. By a strange twist of history, the start of the war in Iran halted the prospect of ending the war in Ukraine — at the very moment when Mr. Putin appeared ready to consider it.
At the start of the year, the Russian economy looked to be giving way. Under the strain of war and sanctions, revenues were falling, production was shrinking and trade was running low. With rising tariffs, credit was prohibitively expensive and borrowing all but impossible: A wave of bankruptcies was on the horizon. In late January, Russia was forced to sell oil to India at just $22 per barrel, about a third of the market rate. As a symbol of unsustainability, it was hard to beat.
President Vladimir Putin has heard such complaints throughout the war. Yet, according to those around him, he has chosen largely not to listen. Officials and business leaders, for their part, understood that the continuation of the war was his absolute priority and that the country’s economic situation was of little consequence. But in February something shifted. Mr. Putin began, suddenly, to pay attention to the flagging economy. There were even signs he might be changing his mind on negotiations with Ukraine, perhaps seeking an exit from the conflict.
Then came the war in Iran. In one swoop, the conditions for conciliation were overturned. Amid buoyant oil prices, Western division and American overreach, the pressure on Mr. Putin to come to terms ebbed away. By a strange twist of history, the start of the war in Iran halted the prospect of ending the war in Ukraine — at the very moment when Mr. Putin appeared ready to consider it.
berg80
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- #249
How the Iran war could rattle the global economy long after hostilities end
Oil prices fell on Wednesday after reports that the U.S. had given Iran a plan to end the war, pushing stocks higher. Can investors finally breathe a sigh of relief?Not so fast, says Morgan Stanley. In a client note, analysts said that even a reopening of the critical Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed to oil tankers during the conflict, won’t immediately restore the world to its pre-conflict state. Some 20-25% of the world’s oil supply and 20% of its liquefied gas passes through this critical shipping lane, and the ease with which it was shut down may permanently change how countries approach their own energy policies.
It’s a new lens for many. Despite all the many conflicts in the Middle East over many decades, not one has caused a total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. As the analysts pointed out, this post-war global economy will likely change in three ways:
- The world needs reserves away from the Middle East. Most of the world’s excess oil sits on the wrong side of the Strait, making it largely inaccessible in the case of a shutdown. This will force countries to rethink the value of that spare capacity, given its location, thereby keeping prices high and volatile. Put another way, countries may look to asterisk the excess supply that sits on the wrong side of the Strait, counting only a portion of it as actually accessible excess.
- Greater emphasis on strategic stockpiles. Once this conflict is over, countries will likely look to build domestic reserves to even higher levels than before. The U.S. has never managed to refill its strategic petroleum reserve to pre-2022 levels. Coming out of this, there is likely to be increased effort to do so, especially in Europe and Asia, which are really feeling the brunt of this oil disruption.
- Higher prices for longer. We likely see a premium on oil supplies that do not pass through the Strait. And since energy is a global commodity, premiums on oil from one place will drive up prices overall, even if “Strait energy” trades at a discount to those non-Strait premium-priced supply lines.
How the Iran war could rattle the global economy long after hostilities end
A reopening of the critical Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed to oil tankers, won't immediately restore the world to its pre-conflict state.
www.cnbc.com
Don doesn't think about long term consequences. He breaks things and then says, "We'll see how it turns out."
berg80
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Quote of the Day
“We’ve not seen anything like this — there’s been no disruption of this scale in the past. It’s every oil analyst’s study piece or worst nightmare — one that we never thought would happen.”—Gareth Ramsay, chief economist for BP, on the Iran war’s impact on energy markets.
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talkingpointsmemo.com
berg80
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Trump says oil and stock market reaction to Iran conflict not as severe as he expected
Trump says oil and stock market reaction to Iran conflict not as severe as he expected
Trump expressed confidence in the war effort and said the economic damage will reverse.
www.cnbc.com
Dotard is still trying to pretend he anticipated the shit storm he created. As if it makes the shit storm better.
The Danes sent all six of their troops to Greenland and have to wait three generations to produce enough new troops to protect the strait of Hormuz. Yet idiot Liberals quake in fear if our Eurotrash dependents get mad at us. Liberals are stupid.
berg80
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- #254
The spot price for current physical cargoes of Brent crude oil soared Thursday to $141.36, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, according to S&P Global, which tracks the data.
The spot price reflects the demand for Brent oil that will be delivered in the next 10 to 30 days. The high price for more immediate oil deliveries points to the tightness of physical supply right now due to the huge disruption trigged by the Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The price was $32.33 higher than the Brent crude futures contract for June delivery, which closed at $109.03 on Thursday.
The futures price is “almost giving a false sense of security that things are not that stressed,” said Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects, in an interview with CNBC’s “The Exchange.”
“You are seeing it but the financial market is almost masking the true tightness that everywhere else is showing up,” Sen said. The price for a barrel of diesel in Europe is almost $200 per barrel right now, she said.
Brent oil spot price for actual cargo soars to $141, highest level since 2008 financial crisis
The Brent oil futures price is giving the market a false sense of security, said Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects.
www.cnbc.com
Is this what winning looks like to you?
berg80
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- #256
Middle East War Will Slow Global Economic Growth, I.M.F. Warns
War in the Middle East has upended the world economy, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday, warning in a report that disruptions to oil markets could slow growth, fuel inflation and raise the possibility of a global recession.The sober message came after the global economy had largely weathered a pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine and soaring inflation without tipping into a recession. But President Trump’s decision to initiate a war in Iran has stopped the world economy in its tracks.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the I.M.F. sharply downgraded its growth forecasts, exposing the economic fallout from a geopolitical crisis that has roiled energy prices and injected a new bout of uncertainty into the global economy.
“The global outlook has abruptly darkened following the outbreak of war in the Middle East,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the I.M.F.’s chief economist, wrote in the report. “The war interrupted what had been a steady growth trajectory.”
The world wide impact of cranky, senile, grandpa Don's decision to go along with Bibi was not anticipated. He thought victory would be easy and painless.
He's claiming to achieved the same thing he claimed to achieve last summer. The end of Iran's capacity to build a nuclear weapon.
berg80
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- #257
Top Energy Democrat probes Trump administration’s preparations for Strait of Hormuz closure
The top Democrat on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee is probing whether the Trump administration adequately planned for the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has roiled energy markets for weeks as the war with Iran drags on.Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., in a letter dated Tuesday to Energy Secretary Chris Wright, shared exclusively with CNBC, demanded answers to a series of questions about how the administration prepared for the closure of the strait ahead of launching the war with Iran. The Islamic Republic has effectively closed the strait since the beginning of the conflict.
“I am deeply concerned that the President’s decision to wage a reckless war on Iran will wreak havoc on energy markets for the foreseeable future — driving up energy costs for Americans across the country and causing global economic turmoil,” Heinrich said in the letter. “The Administration dismissed or failed to fully appreciate the impact the closure of the Strait would have on domestic energy and household costs when it rushed into war with Iran and lacks a coherent strategy to end the war and stabilize domestic and global energy markets.”
Top Energy Democrat probes Trump administration's preparations for Strait of Hormuz closure
The strait has been effectively closed since the U.S. launched a war with Iran, spiking energy prices and whipsawing markets.
www.cnbc.com
Is there any evidence the regime prepared for an extended blockade of the Strait?
berg80
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- #258
New York Fed President John Williams expressed concern Thursday about the Iran war’s impact on the economy, saying it already has shown signs of hiking prices and slowing growth.
In a speech delivered to bankers in his home district, Williams noted that the conflict has “intensified the uncertainty” around national and local conditions.
While he generally expressed confidence that growth would continue and inflation would ease through the year, he said there are threats to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate for stable prices and low unemployment.
“Assuming energy supply disruptions ease reasonably soon, energy prices should come down, and these effects should partially reverse later this year,” Williams said. “However, the conflict could also result in a large supply shock with pronounced effects that simultaneously raises inflation — through a surge in intermediate costs and commodity prices — and dampens economic activity. This has begun to play out already.”
www.cnbc.com
It's laughable that the regime is claiming to have anticipated the impact of war.
In a speech delivered to bankers in his home district, Williams noted that the conflict has “intensified the uncertainty” around national and local conditions.
While he generally expressed confidence that growth would continue and inflation would ease through the year, he said there are threats to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate for stable prices and low unemployment.
“Assuming energy supply disruptions ease reasonably soon, energy prices should come down, and these effects should partially reverse later this year,” Williams said. “However, the conflict could also result in a large supply shock with pronounced effects that simultaneously raises inflation — through a surge in intermediate costs and commodity prices — and dampens economic activity. This has begun to play out already.”
New York Fed President Williams worries war will slow growth, aggravate inflation
Williams noted that the conflict has "intensified the uncertainty" around national and local conditions.
www.cnbc.com
It's laughable that the regime is claiming to have anticipated the impact of war.
berg80
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- #259
Gas prices may not drop below $3 a gallon until next year: Energy Secretary Wright
Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Sunday said gas prices may not drop below $3 until next year, as the U.S. war with Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to wreak havoc on energy markets.“I don’t know, that could happen later this year, that might not happen until next year, but prices have likely peaked,” Wright said on CNN’s “State of the Union” when asked when prices at the pump will return to pre-war figures. “Certainly with a resolution of this conflict, energy prices will go down.”
Wright added that “under $3 a gallon is pretty tremendous in inflation-adjusted terms. We had that in the Trump administration, but we hadn’t seen that in inflation-adjusted terms for quite a long time. We’ll get back there for sure.”
Gas prices may not drop below $3 a gallon until next year: Energy Secretary Wright
Gas prices are more than $4 per gallon on average in the U.S. right now, a massive spike from just months ago.
www.cnbc.com
Oooooooooooops.
Lesh
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At BESTGas prices may not drop below $3 a gallon until next year: Energy Secretary Wright
Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Sunday said gas prices may not drop below $3 until next year, as the U.S. war with Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to wreak havoc on energy markets.
“I don’t know, that could happen later this year, that might not happen until next year, but prices have likely peaked,” Wright said on CNN’s “State of the Union” when asked when prices at the pump will return to pre-war figures. “Certainly with a resolution of this conflict, energy prices will go down.”
Wright added that “under $3 a gallon is pretty tremendous in inflation-adjusted terms. We had that in the Trump administration, but we hadn’t seen that in inflation-adjusted terms for quite a long time. We’ll get back there for sure.”
Gas prices may not drop below $3 a gallon until next year: Energy Secretary Wright
Gas prices are more than $4 per gallon on average in the U.S. right now, a massive spike from just months ago.
Oooooooooooops.
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