US Intelligence Agencies: Iran doesn't currently have a Nuclear Weapons Program

[DeadCanDance]

Iran halted its nuclear weapons research program years ago, and may be a decade away from developing a nuke, assuming they restarted their nuclear weapons research program



American Intelligence Agencies – New NIE Report on Iran:

NIE: Iran ‘Halted’ Nuclear Weapons Program In 2003, Unlikely To Develop A Weapon In This Decade

A new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released today concludes with “high confidence” that “in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.” From the report’s findings:

We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.

We continue to assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon.

Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005.

http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf

IAEA Reporting on Iran:

UN atomic watchdog chief Mohamed ElBaradei said Sunday he had no evidence that Iran is building nuclear weapons and accused US leaders of adding "fuel to the fire" with recent bellicose rhetoric.

"We haven't received any information there is a parallel, ongoing, active nuclear weapon program," the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency told CNN.

 

[maineman]

listen to the Bushies and it's deja vu all over again!

They'll ignore this just like they ignored the August '01 PDB about OBL!

 

[Larkinn]

Well shit...if the US intel agencies say they don't have nukes, we should probably assume they do.

 

[DeadCanDance]

listen to the Bushies and it's deja vu all over again!

They'll ignore this just like they ignored the August '01 PDB about OBL!

I could have sworn that NeoCons have spent the last few weeks posting here, that they know for a fact Iran is building nuclear bombs, and are merely a year or two away from having a nuclear bomb.

 

[Annie]

Iran halted its nuclear weapons research program years ago, and may be a decade away from developing a nuke, assuming they restarted their nuclear weapons research program



American Intelligence Agencies – New NIE Report on Iran:



IAEA Reporting on Iran:

What's more interesting, they are highly confident Iran stopped 2003, which is when US did what? They may or may not have resumed again.

 

[DeadCanDance]

first, before you backpeddle and dance away from your previous assertions kathy, do you admit it looks like you were wrong when you suggested Iran was currently working on nuclear weapons, and was a year or two away from having a bomb?

 

[DeadCanDance]

Crickets chirping.

Having spent weeks having Bush lovers lecture me that they were simply sure that somehow, somewhere, Iran was building a nuclear bombs. No evidence of course was ever proffered. It was just the collective gut feeling of wingnutotopia.

Gut feelings of neocons on message boards don't count for much:

...because, the collective assessment of all US intelligence agencies (NIE) is that Iran gave up their nuclear weapons program years ago. Though, its still is worth it to keep pressure and inspections on them.

And on the ground inspection by IAEA supports NIE's conclusions: no evidence of a nuclear weapons program.


I guess its good we nipped those lies in the bud, before Bush lovers could trick us into another unneccessary war.

 

[maineman]

Crickets chirping.

Having spent weeks having Bush lovers lecture me that they were simply sure that somehow, somewhere, Iran was building a nuclear bombs. No evidence of course was ever proffered. It was just the collective gut feeling of wingnutotopia.

Gut feelings of neocons on message boards don't count for much:

...because, the collective assessment of all US intelligence agencies (NIE) is that Iran gave up their nuclear weapons program years ago. Though, its still is worth it to keep pressure and inspections on them.

And on the ground inspection by IAEA supports NIE's conclusions: no evidence of a nuclear weapons program.


I guess its good we nipped those lies in the bud, before Bush lovers could trick us into another unneccessary war.

I don't put it past them to still take us into an unjustified unwarranted war in Iran. The PNAC vision is pretty blinding once you've had a drink of that koolaid.

 

[Alpha1]

12/3/07

the latest NIE concluded: "We do not know whether (Iran) currently intends to develop nuclear weapons."

That marked a sharp contrast to an intelligence report two years ago that stated Iran was "determined to develop nuclear weapons."
====================================
(same NIE?)Now, in late 2007 the NIE "don't know"
a mere 2 years ago (that would be 2005) this same NIE said Iran was "determined to develop nuclear weapons."
SOOOooo...whats you point ?
-----------------------------------
But the new assessment found Iran was continuing to develop technical capabilities that could be used to build a bomb and that it would likely be capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon "sometime during the 2010-2015 time-frame."
U.S. Says Iran Halted Nuclear Arms Program

Reuters

U.S. intelligence agencies concluded in findings released on Monday that Iran stopped its nuclear weapons development program in 2003. Following are highlights of the National Intelligence Estimate's key judgments.

-- Iran had a nuclear weapons program but halted it in 2003 and had not restarted it as of mid-2007. The halt applied to design and engineering of an explosive device, such as fuses or shielding, and to covert uranium-conversion activities, according to senior intelligence officials. Other activities such as civilian uranium enrichment and missile development continue.

-- Iran is keeping open the option of developing nuclear weapons, but U.S. intelligence agencies "do not know" whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons. This is a major change from a 2005 intelligence estimate which concluded that Iran was "determined to develop nuclear weapons."
http://tinyurl.com/2awtrh
--------------------------------

 

[Psychoblues]

As usual, the chickenhawks cower away in the face of their own horseshit being reflected back to them in the mirrors of their consciences.

 

[Gunny]

Iran halted its nuclear weapons research program years ago, and may be a decade away from developing a nuke, assuming they restarted their nuclear weapons research program



American Intelligence Agencies – New NIE Report on Iran:



IAEA Reporting on Iran:

These would be the same US intelligence agencies that you all LOVE to quote about being wrong about Saddam's WMDs, right?

 

[Psychoblues]

Holy Shit!!!!!!! As much information as has been published concerning the collective information by our intelligence agencies being accurate in denying wmd's existed in Iraq and the cherry picking of the bush cabal to the exclusion of those otherwise more important and accurate assessments is astounding!!!!!!!!!!

These would be the same US intelligence agencies that you all LOVE to quote about being wrong about Saddam's WMDs, right?

I actually thought better of you, gunny.

 

[Gunny]

Holy Shit!!!!!!! As much information as has been published concerning the collective information by our intelligence agencies being accurate in denying wmd's existed in Iraq and the cherry picking of the bush cabal to the exclusion of those otherwise more important and accurate assessments is astounding!!!!!!!!!!





I actually thought better of you, gunny.

What you think of me is irrelevant. Intelligence agencies had 12 years + to collect data on Saddam/Iraq. According to you lefties, it was wrong.

But the second they say what you want to hear ... Iran has no nuclear program ... you'd swear it was Jehovah himself preaching the gospel.

Hypocrites.

 

[Alpha1]

While they still ignore the fact that a mere 2 years ago (that would be 2005) this same NIE said Iran was "determined to develop nuclear weapons."
I repeat.....

SOOOooo...whats you point ? Besides the top of their heads...

 

[Larkinn]

What you think of me is irrelevant. Intelligence agencies had 12 years + to collect data on Saddam/Iraq. According to you lefties, it was wrong.

But the second they say what you want to hear ... Iran has no nuclear program ... you'd swear it was Jehovah himself preaching the gospel.

Hypocrites.

So are you saying you believe the intel now and we can expect to see you stop warmongering against Iran?

 

[Alpha1]

His post is pretty clear...why ask was what he was saying.....the words he used are too big or what?

 

[Larkinn]

His post is pretty clear...why ask was what he was saying.....the words he used are too big or what?

The implications of it are not clear. I am asking so that I don't accuse him of doing something before it is clear that is what he is doing. It is a line of questioning you would do well to avail yourself of on occasion.

 

[Alpha1]

Holy Shit!!!!!!! As much information as has been published concerning the collective information by our intelligence agencies being accurate in denying wmd's existed in Iraq and the cherry picking of the bush cabal to the exclusion of those otherwise more important and accurate assessments is astounding!!!!!!!!!!





I actually thought better of you, gunny.

Your not very acquainted with the facts are you?

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iraq/missile-prewar2003.htm

Iraqi Delivery Systems
2003 Prewar Assessments

In the October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), the Intelligence Community (IC) claimed that Iraq maintained a small missile force and several development programs, including for an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) probably intended to deliver biological warfare agent (BW). Specifically, IC concluded that Iraq maintained an arsenal of a covert force of up to a few dozen Scud-variant SRBMs with ranges of 650 to 900 km; Iraq was deploying its new al-Samoud and Ababil-100 SRBMs, which are capable of flying beyond the UN-authorized 150-km range limit; Iraq was developing medium-range ballistic missile capabilities; and that Iraq was developing a UAV capable of delivering BW to the U.S. homeland. Although a later NIE in January 2003 withdrew the claim that Iraq was pursuing UAVs capable of hitting the U.S., only the US Air Force (USAF) Intelligence service disagreed with the NIE's judgement that the UAVs were for BW use (see below for details). In his speech before the UN in February 2003, Fmr. Secretary of State, Colin Powell, stated that these weapons were built for power projection and not for self-defense.
Evidence for Assessments

Missiles

The IC's assessment that Iraq still posessed a small assortment of Scud-type missiles was largely based on gaps in Iraqi declarations. United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) data and reports showed that the UN had been unable to account for two of 819 Scud missiles Iraq acquired from the Soviet Union, seven indigenously produced al Husayn Scud-type missiles, 50 conventional Scud warheads and over 500 tons of proscribed Scud propellants Iraq claimed to have destroyed unilaterally. In addition to these accounting discrepancies, more than twenty intelligence reports from at least ten different human intelligence (HUMINT) sources of varying reliability provided to the Committee suggested that Iraq retained prohibited Scud missiles, used trucks to carry and conceal them and hid the missiles, launchers, and missile components at various sites in Iraq. This information contradicted interviews with Hussein Kamel (Saddam Hussein's son in law who defected from Iraq in 1995), in which Kamel claimed that Iraq had destroyed all of its Scud missiles after the Gulf War. Finally, the post-war Senate Intelligence Committee noted that it was unclear exactly how the IC established the estimate that Iraq may have retained "up to a few dozen" Scuds. Analysts told Committee staff that the number was estimated based on Scud missiles and components for which the UN could not adequately account, but the IC had no estimate of the number of components that may have been withheld from inspectors.

The judgement that both the al Samoud and Ababil-100 missiles had ranges beyond 150 km was based on a combination of observed tests, engine specifications, and Iraqi admissions. Since at least 1998, the IC had assessed that the al Samoud had a range greater than the 150-km allowed by the UN. This assessment was based on information extrapolated from Iraq's UN declarations in which Iraq provided details of the missile and engine parameters. A report provided to the Senate Intelligenc Committee assessed that in August 2002 two al Samoud missiles flew to ranges above the UN permitted range. Additional intelligence indicated that the missile had been deployed. Iraq's full and complete discolsure in December 2002 confirmed these assessments. Iraq admitted to developing an al Samoud II variant, but said the range of this variant was also 150 km. Iraq admitted that the missile had flown beyond 150 km during 13 of 23 flight tests, but only by at most 33 km. Intelligence regarding the Ababil-100 indicated that it had been flight tested 18-20 times since 2000. In late May 2002, Ababil-100 launch boxes were seen at a tactical missile and support facility and Ababil-100 missile launchers were found at a barracks and training facility.

And theres more if you care to read it all....

 

[Gunny]

So are you saying you believe the intel now and we can expect to see you stop warmongering against Iran?

Find a post where I have "warmongered" against Iran and quote it right here in this thread.

 

[Larkinn]

Find a post where I have "warmongered" against Iran and quote it right here in this thread.

Protecting one's self against attack is just using logic and common sense. So is not letting fanatics possess nuclear weapons.

In the thread about Iran.

Now can I get an answer to my question?