From your link:
Of course, it's also important to note that a U.S. appeals court has ruled that most of Trump's tariffs were illegal. The administration has asked the Supreme Court to overturn the decision, but if it doesn't, the revenues will have to be refunded.
It will be interesting to see what happens to Trump's tariffs. Will most of them be declared illegal, as Appeals Court ruled? And if so, will some of those commitments to reshore manufacturing here be quietly changed or even deleted? Historically, higher tariffs have mostly been reduced eventually. There were reasons why domestic manufacturing left the US for other countries in the 1st place, so what will be different if Trump's tariffs go away?
Even Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has admitted that Trump’s tariffs are being paid by American importers who can pass them off to consumers [3].
Some businesses have already announced their intentions to raise prices as a result of tariffs. A few notable examples include Walmart, Adidas, Home Depot, and Best Buy among others. Ultimately, these price hikes mean that American households will face higher costs for goods, putting pressure on already tight budgets.
“Trump administration policies are driving up consumers’ cost of living in four specific areas: new cars, health insurance, products for children, and cookout staples and other foods,” said the Center for American Progress [4]. The Yale Budget Lab has said the new tariffs will cost American households $2,400 on average in 2025 [5].
The CAP and Yale are left-leaning, so I take their estimates with a grain of salt. But that doesn't make them wrong, but perhaps overstated. But here's the real problem IMHO:
But it’s worth noting that the Big Beautiful Bill, recently signed into law, comes with a hefty price tag. It will cost an estimated $3.4 trillion over the next decade, says the CBO, which could offset much of the potential tariff revenue projections.
This is what happens when revenues go up: Congress spends more money and the anticipated deficit reduction never happens or at best isn't what it was supposed to be. So, we end up with what I think is the worst scenario: the debt and deficits continue to go up and the cost of living goes up more than it otherwise would and that is called inflation. Maybe not all that much due to the tariffs alone, but still that ain't good.
So, I see tariffs as a bad idea, but what can we do to support our manufacturing base? DamnifIknow. Maybe we need to restrict or limit the amount of foreign investments here in some areas, like land for instance. I don't want foreign interests owning one square inch of US soil.
