I see. International chess? Grandmaster level?
Let’s run with that notion and think it through a bit.
So what is this blockade trying to achieve? As far as I can determine, two things:
-By depriving Iran of its oil income, it’s hoped that economic pain will drive Iran to negotiate.
-By depriving Iranian allies of that oil, those allies, like China, will pressure Iran to come to the negotiating table.
Now let’s look at it from the Iranian perspective.
First, the idea that economic pain will force Iran to change course is almost laughable. They’ve been under economic pressure since they deposed the Shah. It hasn’t worked so far. They are a theocratic, authoritarian regime. Not only can they repress internal dissent, they may also believe they are justified, religiously and politically,in doing so.
Second, China undoubtedly feels the impact of this crisis, like the rest of the world. But they have limited incentive to stop it. From their perspective, the U.S. is expending hard-to-replace ordnance, money, and political goodwill with its allies. Their geopolitical position improves the longer this continues.
You seem to assume that Iran is stupid. As it stands, yes, losing roughly $500 million a day in revenue hurts. But they also know it hurts the rest of the world, and more importantly, it hurts the U.S. More precisely, it hurts Donald Trump politically. They know U.S. public opinion won’t tolerate high casualties, and it certainly won’t tolerate high gas prices and inflation. In short, they likely believe time is on their side.
Let me offer an alternative to your “grandmaster” theory. This looks more like a desperation tactic. Trump probably has been told he can’t reopen the strait without paying a political price he’s unwilling to pay, so this becomes a long-shot attempt to force an acceptable outcome.
oilprice.com
