Trump’s answer to an Iranian desire to reign over the Strait of Hormuz.

[BackAgain]

This is somewhat related to the Iran conflict.

It is also a pretty good meme.

I realize all the TDS crowd (and some others who have soured on Trump) will angrily disagree with me on this one. But, I am starting to believe that President Trump is playing international chess on the level of a grandmaster.

 

[SeaMajor7]

CHECKMATE

 

[Darkwind]

Okay, that one is funny.

 

[1srelluc]

I heard that several oil tankers traversed the Strait today. Must be why oil is dropping.

 

[SeaMajor7]

Trump is not blockading the Strait, he's blokading IRAN.

 

[yidnar]

View attachment 1243997

This is somewhat related to the Iran conflict.

It is also a pretty good meme.

I realize all the TDS crowd (and some others who have soured on Trump) will angrily disagree with me on this one. But, I am starting to believe that President Trump is playing international chess on the level of a grandmaster.

reports are now coming in that Iran is returning to the bargaining table ..

 

[OhPleaseJustQuit]

View attachment 1243997

This is somewhat related to the Iran conflict.

It is also a pretty good meme.

I realize all the TDS crowd (and some others who have soured on Trump) will angrily disagree with me on this one. But, I am starting to believe that President Trump is playing international chess on the level of a grandmaster.

.

Seems to be working so far.

.

 

[1srelluc]

Another decent up day....I'll take it.

The dems be like:

 

[The Sage of Main Street]

I heard that several oil tankers traversed the Strait today. Must be why oil is dropping.

View attachment 1244080

Donald of Arabia

I still say we ought to destroy the spotters on the Iranian shore and its many offshore islands. And the Gulf Arabs should send troops in to annex Iran out of the whole "Persian" Gulf.

 

[OhPleaseJustQuit]

Another decent up day....I'll take it.

View attachment 1244095

The dems be like:

.

Metals are up too.

.

 

[BackAgain]

reports are now coming in that Iran is returning to the bargaining table ..

They need not grovel. They simply have to agree to regular IAEA inspection, and some unannounced ones too. (I’d insist.) They must resign their theocratic government posts and disband their IRGC. They would also need to sign a treaty whereby Iran commits completely to cancelling any use of their retiring military (may their Navy rust in peace).to exercise any claimed control over the Hormuz Strait. Of course they also would have to produce every grain of their acknowledged possession of 60% enriched uranium.

Prolly missing a couple of details in what is my recommendation for a peace agreement.

But that’s where the brain trust should step in.

What other specific terms and agreements would you demand from the Iranian regime?

 

[MisterBeale]

 

[toomuchtime_]

No, the message was, open the Strait of Hormuz or I will blockade all your ports - no imports or exports - and open the Strait to other shipping, and that is what President Trump has done.

 

[HikerGuy83]

 

[luiza]

Tumpfy humiliated by China's answer to the blockade
Iran in full control.

 

[forkup]

View attachment 1243997

This is somewhat related to the Iran conflict.

It is also a pretty good meme.

I realize all the TDS crowd (and some others who have soured on Trump) will angrily disagree with me on this one. But, I am starting to believe that President Trump is playing international chess on the level of a grandmaster.

I see. International chess? Grandmaster level?

Let’s run with that notion and think it through a bit.

So what is this blockade trying to achieve? As far as I can determine, two things:
-By depriving Iran of its oil income, it’s hoped that economic pain will drive Iran to negotiate.
-By depriving Iranian allies of that oil, those allies, like China, will pressure Iran to come to the negotiating table.

Now let’s look at it from the Iranian perspective.

First, the idea that economic pain will force Iran to change course is almost laughable. They’ve been under economic pressure since they deposed the Shah. It hasn’t worked so far. They are a theocratic, authoritarian regime. Not only can they repress internal dissent, they may also believe they are justified, religiously and politically,in doing so.

Second, China undoubtedly feels the impact of this crisis, like the rest of the world. But they have limited incentive to stop it. From their perspective, the U.S. is expending hard-to-replace ordnance, money, and political goodwill with its allies. Their geopolitical position improves the longer this continues.

You seem to assume that Iran is stupid. As it stands, yes, losing roughly $500 million a day in revenue hurts. But they also know it hurts the rest of the world, and more importantly, it hurts the U.S. More precisely, it hurts Donald Trump politically. They know U.S. public opinion won’t tolerate high casualties, and it certainly won’t tolerate high gas prices and inflation. In short, they likely believe time is on their side.

Let me offer an alternative to your “grandmaster” theory. This looks more like a desperation tactic. Trump probably has been told he can’t reopen the strait without paying a political price he’s unwilling to pay, so this becomes a long-shot attempt to force an acceptable outcome.

 

[BackAgain]

I see. International chess? Grandmaster level?

Let’s run with that notion and think it through a bit.

So what is this blockade trying to achieve? As far as I can determine, two things:
-By depriving Iran of its oil income, it’s hoped that economic pain will drive Iran to negotiate.
-By depriving Iranian allies of that oil, those allies, like China, will pressure Iran to come to the negotiating table.

Now let’s look at it from the Iranian perspective.

First, the idea that economic pain will force Iran to change course is almost laughable. They’ve been under economic pressure since they deposed the Shah. It hasn’t worked so far. They are a theocratic, authoritarian regime. Not only can they repress internal dissent, they may also believe they are justified, religiously and politically,in doing so.

Second, China undoubtedly feels the impact of this crisis, like the rest of the world. But they have limited incentive to stop it. From their perspective, the U.S. is expending hard-to-replace ordnance, money, and political goodwill with its allies. Their geopolitical position improves the longer this continues.

You seem to assume that Iran is stupid. As it stands, yes, losing roughly $500 million a day in revenue hurts. But they also know it hurts the rest of the world, and more importantly, it hurts the U.S. More precisely, it hurts Donald Trump politically. They know U.S. public opinion won’t tolerate high casualties, and it certainly won’t tolerate high gas prices and inflation. In short, they likely believe time is on their side.

Let me offer an alternative to your “grandmaster” theory. This looks more like a desperation tactic. Trump probably has been told he can’t reopen the strait without paying a political price he’s unwilling to pay, so this becomes a long-shot attempt to force an acceptable outcome.

I’d be amused by your analysis — except I see no reason to believe that you have the slightest ability to address the issue.

 

[forkup]

I’d be amused by your analysis — except I see no reason to believe that you have the slightest ability to address the issue.

And yet, only one of us is refusing to engage the premise the other person provided.

 

[kyzr]

Now let’s look at it from the Iranian perspective.

First, the idea that economic pain will force Iran to change course is almost laughable. They’ve been under economic pressure since they deposed the Shah. It hasn’t worked so far. They are a theocratic, authoritarian regime. Not only can they repress internal dissent, they may also believe they are justified, religiously and politically, in doing so.

That is correct, until it isn't. All brutal governments can withstand economic pain, since the ruling class never feels any pain. Maybe you forgot that Kohmeini already drank from the poisoned chalice...they can do it again...

Second, China undoubtedly feels the impact of this crisis, like the rest of the world. But they have limited incentive to stop it. From their perspective, the U.S. is expending hard-to-replace ordnance, money, and political goodwill with its allies. Their geopolitical position improves the longer this continues.

One way to look at it. Another way is that China has a big oil reserve because they know that in a war they get no oil deliveries. China does not want a war or a confrontation with the US.

You seem to assume that Iran is stupid. As it stands, yes, losing roughly $500 million a day in revenue hurts. But they also know it hurts the rest of the world, and more importantly, it hurts the U.S. More precisely, it hurts Donald Trump politically. They know U.S. public opinion won’t tolerate high casualties, and it certainly won’t tolerate high gas prices and inflation. In short, they likely believe time is on their side.

Your analysis fell apart when Iran realized that the US can supply oil when Iran can't. Supply chains are being revised. Trump knows that it won;t take long for Iran's government to not make payroll. The Iran blockade is being short-circuited by tankers flocking to the US. US public opinion is positive, as witnessed by the recent stockmarket rise to pre-war levels.

Let me offer an alternative to your “grandmaster” theory. This looks more like a desperation tactic. Trump probably has been told he can’t reopen the strait without paying a political price he’s unwilling to pay, so this becomes a long-shot attempt to force an acceptable outcome.

You overlook Occam's Razor. Starving Iran of all revenue is a simple "grand-master" winning move. Checkmate.

 

[BackAgain]

And yet, only one of us is refusing to engage the premise the other person provided.

You didn’t assess my premise. My premise was, “But, I am starting to believe that President Trump is playing international chess on the level of a grandmaster.”

I’m well aware that my belief might not turn out to be accurate. I’m already familiar with you TDS loons and your claims.

I follow a little chess. I can play that game, but I’ll never be a master at the game.
Still, I see some replays of some brilliant old games between the likes of Spassky and Fisher. The videos get a running commentary, on some sites. I can thereby follow along and suddenly see how far “above the rim” those greats played the game.

The comparison? The government’s doing battle here are seeing what their opponents are doing and what they hope to accomplish. Recently, the side that is getting its ass kicked all over Iran tried a countermove. They tried to assume control over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

We know why, too. I can give their strategists a bit of respect for how they plan moves and countermoves. However, with the assistance of our own military commanders, the President swiftly neutralized Iran’s Hormuz gambit.

I don’t care if you agree or disagree with my estimation of how well Trump is maneuvering the chess pieces. You’re free to “see” it any way your biases demand of you.