This stock market metric says the likely winner is...Trump

[Vigilante]

This goes against all the pundits analysis......lolololol

The stock market's election year performance between July 31 and Oct. 31 has often accurately predicted the next president — and this year it's pointing to a victory by Donald Trump, if history is a guide.

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, says the market's decline this fall has been a bad omen for the incumbent party and Hillary Clinton, who still holds a six point national lead in a new poll. The S&P 500 is down 2.2 percent since its close of 2,173 on July 29, a Friday and the last trading day of July.

"Going back to World War II, the S&P 500 performance between July 31 and Oct. 31 has accurately predicted a challenger victory 86 percent of the time when the stock market performance has been negative," he said. The one time in eight that the incumbent party won with a negative stock market was in 1956, when Adlai Stevenson challenged President Dwight D. Eisenhower.

(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...

 

[Old Rocks]

Who will win the presidency?

• http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#
• http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#

Chance of winning

Hillary Clinton

74.3%

Donald Trump

25.6%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Still looking good for Clinton

 

[JimBowie1958]

Who will win the presidency?
Chance of winning

Hillary Clinton

74.3%

Donald Trump

25.6%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Still looking good for Clinton

GIGO is still GIGO no matter how many electrons you kill posting up graphical nonsense.

 

[Old Rocks]

Deju vu all over again. Same posts and arguements concerning the polls were presented in 2012. And in 2012, Silver and the polls were correct.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Deju vu all over again. Same posts and arguements concerning the polls were presented in 2012. And in 2012, Silver and the polls were correct.

And that is about all you care to say, leaving out that Evangelicals mostly stayed home and refused to vote for a Mormon even though they continually expressed their preference for a Romney win.

The polls did not get it right, BTW, in 2012 as they over estimated the Romney turnout by 3% even though they under sampled Republicans by large margins.

In essence, the pollsters got lucky that Evangelical apathy toward Romney more than reflected the under sampling that the pollsters did for Republicans. And they were still wrong.

You really do not understand how all this stuff works, all you can say is "Day got it right in 2012, so day wil get it right agin!"

roflmao