Here's what's going to happen. Let's pretend in magic world, that Obama passes a $15/hr minimum wage.
McDonald, which has billions of dollars, will replace their workers with robots. Thus, they can keep their prices low enough to stay in business.
That is a terrible leap in logic. This is not a situation where someone can "make it cheaper in China" because you are talking about cooked hamburgers served hot. There is no foreign competition. The cost increase would be inflicted upon every fast food restaurant in the United States. Given the fact that all competition McDonald's faces would suffer the same increase in cost, this is not a situation where McDonald's would need to keep prices low in response to competition. So, given that competition is not driving the price in the model you propose, a price increase is more realistic. That price increase may yield to a lower volume of sales. It is the lower volume of sales that would reduce jobs!
Furthermore, if McDonalds had the option to replace their workforce with robots, why wouldn't they just replace the workforce? It does not follow that anyone should fear a wage hike because MickeyDees might start investing in robots. If robots could be used (and actually are used in some small capacity to pour drinks in drive-thrus) McDonalds has an obligation to its stockholders reduce labor costs and implement the cheaper more efficient robot solution.
Look up the "Automated Beverage System". McDonalds is already investing in robots,
First, it doesn't matter if there is foriegn competition or not. People are not going to pay $20 for a fast food burger. A fast food burger is not worth $20. Thus they won't go. Thus the store closes.
So McDonald's is going to invest in automating with or without foreign competition.
"That price increase may yield to a lower volume of sales. It is the lower volume of sales that would reduce jobs!"
Dur... yeah. That was my whole point. You just made my entire point.
"if McDonalds had the option to replace their workforce with robots, why wouldn't they just replace the workforce?"
There are numerous reasons why McDonald's, and in fact all companies, prefer human workers over robots.
If you make a machine to flip burgers, and a machine to pour drinks, and the burger flipper machine breaks, can you just swap the drink machine to take over flipping burgers? Of course not.
If there is a system glitch, does a robot respond and adept to the problem? If someone pukes in the lobby, does a robot stop pouring drinks, and go clean up the mess?
And there is of course the simple fact that customer tend to prefer humans over robots. If for no other reason, than because they can yell when something goes wrong. Robot don't tend to care much about yelling customers.
McDonald's would much rather have people over robots. By far. But if customers are not willing to pay $20 for a burger, then robot it is. They'll go robots over bankruptcy any day. And by the way *YOU* would too.
My uncle is an engineer, and he built glassworks machines. His company sent him to China to try and sell their automated glassworks. The trip was a failure, because even though the machine would have saved the company money, it wasn't enough to justify replacing workers because wages are low. He did the math, they could have saved lots of money, but it simply wasn't enough to justify the machine.
If you want to start making a new product, you just tell your employees "New product today", and show them how to make it. Machines costs big time, to reconfigure for a new product. You can make a new product every day with people. A machine takes time.
Companies would always prefer people over machines. The *ONLY* reason they move to machines, is because it's either switch over, or close the company. The cost of labor is too high, verses what customers are willing to pay. That's why you automate.
That automation will happen as soon as the burger-flipper robot is invented. The day someone invents the burger-flipper robot this is going to happen. You do understand that MickeyDees has a responsibility to its shareholders, right? You can abolish the minimum wage all together and robots will still happen.
Too late.
McDonald's New High-Tech Burger Flipper | Techdirt
McDonald's had a completely automated store in California, back in 2003. The store was closed, but it was a proof of concept, and worked.
Robot Serves Up 360 Hamburgers Per Hour | Singularity Hub
"Alpha churns out a painless 340 hamburgers per hour."
McDonald's orders 7,000 touchscreen kiosks to replace cashiers - Neowin
McDonald's recently added 64,000 people to its payroll in the United States, but job prospects in Europe for those so inclined to work in the fast food industry are looking pretty grim right about now. That's because the fast food giant is poised to add touchscreen kiosks in more than 7,000 of its restaurants in Europe in effort to replace actual, human cashiers.
Why? Why did they hire more people in the US, and fewer people in France, that has to this day, a 10.5% unemployment rate?
Answer? Policies in France have driven up labor costs through Minimum wage and other regulations, so that they have to replace people with kiosks. Why are they hiring people instead of robots in the US? Because it's still profitable to hire people here.
You enact higher minimum wage, up to $15/hr? That will change very quickly, and McDonald's is testing out robot replacements as we speak, in case it becomes necessary.
Again, McDonald, can and has already made, a completely automated store. They could completely replace all workers at stores right now. They don't, because it's not yet worth while yet to do so. The moment you drive up wages with Federal Law, you'll see people being replaced by robots, real fast.
Okay, first, could you substantiate the claim "In the 1960s, there were dozens, nearly a hundred independent auto makers" ?
I am not aware of "nearly a hundred" or any number close to that. Please remember that to be on this list of independent automakers, the independent automakers must have actually made cars in the United States such that their manufacturing process was subject to regulation in the United States.
Second, you have completely overlooked the oil embargo. The oil embargo and price of gas was devastating to American inefficient cars. You have overlooked the growth foreign competition, and the fact that Germany and Japan had rejoined the world as nations with substantial industry after WWII. You have overlooked the great American Quality Crisis (Quality is Free by Phil Crosby).
You seem to be trying to blame everything on a book Ralph Nader wrote. Ralphie was never so powerful.
You caught my error. 1960s and before there were hundreds. But in 1960 there were still dozens of independent, and profitable car companies, even with foreign competition.
Packard. American Motors. Austin. Checker Motors. Jeep. Nash Metropolitan. Studebaker. Avanti. Griffith Automobile. International (used to make consumer vehicles). Excalibur. Stutz Motor Company. Bricklin. Clénet Coachworks. Shay Motors Corporation. Camelot Motors. Zimmer. Delorean.
And that's just what I can remember (and find links to). Nearly all of those, were either bought up by other companies, or closed down.
There was one, and I can't find the link to it, (either Stutz or Excalibur), where they were interviewing the owner, and asked why they didn't ramp up production, and the answer was that if they produced over a certain amount, they would be forced to follow all the Auto Regulation, and they couldn't afford it. In other words, they voluntarily choose to stay a niche company, because regulations cost too much.
Now these are only domestic makers, because you claimed that outside makers were not required to follow domestic regulations. I don't understand that claim. Or perhaps you didn't mean that? Because as far as I know, imported cars have to follow the same regulation that all domestically sold cars do. Thus they were equally effected.
And honestly, the same thing happened in numerous other countries, not just the US. Japan similarly had dozens of independent car makers. But as regulations were levied in Japan, they had the same result, of the big Japanese three buying out all the independent makers.
If McDonalds could get customers to pay $480 for a big mac, then the price of a big mac would be $480, that part is correct. Where you made a mistake is in assuming this translates into wages. If MickeyDees could charge $480 of a big mac, but only give $0.01 per hour to the burger-flipper... why wouldn't they? Why would they deprive their shareholders of the profit?
McDonalds is far more likely to pay just enough to keep the burger-flipper from leaving the job, maybe have some morale when he comes to work, and this will be a function of the supply of labor.
Nah. During the 1970s before deregulation of the airline industry, ticket prices were massively higher than what a free-market would pay for, because of government regulations.
During that time, companies paid their airline pilots, and all employees, a ton of money.
After deregulation, the ticket prices fell to market rates, and wages to employees, especially airline pilots fell too.
Did all the pilots quit? No, they are still working today, as they were during the 1990s.
So obviously, the companies could have paid them less during the 1970s. But.... they choose to pay them more. Why? Because they had more money to pay them with.
My company itself, is proof of this concept. During the late 90s, and 2000s, my company was drastically bigger than it is today. It was making tons of product. In the late 2000s, the company began getting smaller. All of their engineers, sales, and executives, had a 20% pay cut. All of them are still there, still working, still doing their jobs.
Obviously they could have cut their pay years ago, or never given them raises to begin with. Yet the company did.... why? Because they had the money to do so.
Companies that bring in more profits, tend to pay more wages. All of them do this.
In fact, the only places I know of that have not done this, have been the small mom&pop shops.
Hey now, that is not a fair comparison. How many MickeyDees burger-flippers "put on a show"? A high-end burger-flipper might make the same amount of money if he could figure out a routine and market that routine. That does distinguish the performer from the average burger-flipper.
I didn't compare bartenders with burger flippers. Read the post. I compared them with other bartenders, that also put on shows.
You are assuming fungibility in the service provided where none exists. The fact that the two services are different is why the consumer is willing to pay two different prices.
You made up a strawman, and attacked it. That shows you don't have an argument.
I assume you do not have a large yard. If you owned several acres, maybe this per-service price would seem more reasonable
I based it on how much my neighbor pays to have their lawn cut.
Thank you for making me aware of lawnbott.
LawnBott Robotic Mowers | LawnBott ? Electric Lawn Mower
If I am able to do so, I am going to terminate my landscaping services and start buying robots.
I do not care how much the landscaper will reduce his prices. I like robots a lot. I think robots are neat and the robot will never leave a cigarette butt in my yard.
I'm actually serious, if I could I'd buy a landscaping robot and the minimum wage has very little to do with my decision. See how that works?
Well that's you. The rest of us are not like that. If I can pay someone $25 to do my yard ($300 a year), I'm not going to buy a $1,200 robot, which could break, or get stolen.
If government regulations force me to pay $100 to do my yard ($1,200 a year), and I really don't want to do it myself, now that $1,200 price tag is more reasonable. The minimum wage (for the rest of us) has very much to do with our decision making. See how that works?
The price of the burger actually does not affect the wage of the worker. If there was a shortage of labor, the wage of the burger-flipper would sky rocket and this would be reflected in reduced profits.
No one is going to run a restaurant to earn $50,000 a year. If profits fall below a certain point, it's not worth it to run the operation. An owner would likely close the store, sell off everything they can, and put their money into something else with good profits.
Now you are correct that if the labor supply was lower, supply and demand would naturally move up labor prices.
Norway has no minimum wage, and pays $16 an hr (roughly). Their prices are up in the $16 for a burger. However, because prices are high, few people go to McDonalds in Norway. They have (last I checked) less than 1/4 the McDonald's that we have in the US (per population). And they are all located in expensive tourist areas.
Here's the difference. Labor prices going up because of a shortage of labor, is good. A shortage of labor, inherently means that few people are without jobs. So a decline in fast food joints because of higher prices, will not have a negative effect, because.... there is a shortage of labor.
In a country like ours, where we have tons of unskilled labor, the cost of labor goes down, thus increase the profitability and investment into low skilled labor jobs...... which is good because.... there is a ton of unskilled labor. We want more jobs for those that need those jobs.
The problem with the minimum wage is, it drives up labor costs, when there are tons of people who need employment. Thus jobs dry up, at the same time we have tons of people in need of jobs.
The FLSA and history thereof disagrees with you.
History doesn't disagree, and the FLSA is a government policy promoted by government which has invested interest is promoting themselves as being a benefit to society, to expand and grow themselves at the cost of tax payers. US Department of Labor, is wrong.
History does not disagree with me. You simply don't know history very well.