The "Shy Trump Voter" Theory

[Seawytch]

First, I'm not making any predictions about the election whatsoever. I'm not saying Biden or Trump is going to win. Nor am I saying that that this theory isn't true. I just want to see if there is any empirical data to suggest that this "Shy Trump Voter" theory is statistically true.

The theory is that many Trump voters don't want to tell pollsters that they are really voting for Trump. The theory psotulates that social disapproval leads people not to be truthful that they are supporting the President.

If this were the case - that voters were telling pollsters one thing but doing the other - it should be pretty simple to see in the data. On a net basis, what that means is that Trump's actual number of votes should materially differ from what pollsters were estimating Trump's vote to be.

I looked at 13 states from the 2016 election - six that most pundits consider swing states, and seven that pundits think will not flip but could be in play. The data is from RCP.

View attachment 395223

The first column is the estimate of Trump's vote by the polling firms. The second column is Trump's actual votes. As you can see, in all but one case, Trump's vote was actually higher than what pollsters were estimating.

But that was true for the most part for Clinton too.

Why would that happen? Why would both candidate's actual vote tallies be higher than what was being shown in the polls? Because people who were undecided made their decision on election day. And they voted mostly for Trump.

But assuming that the differential between Trump's actual votes and polling numbers were all because of shy voters (they weren't), and not because people were genuinely undecided until they stepped into the polling booth, it appears that there isn't much statistical significant evidence of this theory. Perhaps except for one very notable, and important, exception.

The average between Trump's votes and polling numbers of the 13 states is 3.2%. Most state polls have a margin of error of 4% or greater, so this average is likely not statistically significant. In fact, the differences are below 4% in 10 of the 13 states.

However, it is above 4% in three critical states - IA OH and WI - all states Trump flipped, and were critical in him winning. So perhaps the Shy Voter Theory only applies to the (critically important) Midwest.

There is no evidence that people said they were voting for Clinton then voting for Trump. Or if there was, it wouldn't matter because what matters is the net differential between what the polls were telling us and what actually happened. IOW, there may have been pollsters who were "Shy Hillary Voters," and saying they were voting for Trump and actually voting for Clinton. But that's unlikely. Thus, most "Shy Trump Voters" were probably saying they were undecided or not saying anything.

The problem this time around for Trump is that there are fewer people who are undecided. These numbers come from both RCP and 538. Those who are saying they are undecided is down by about a third from last election.

View attachment 395228

This is especially a problem for Trump because he is further behind Biden than he was behind Clinton. In all 13 states, Biden is out-polling Clinton.

View attachment 395234

And if you look at the gap between the lead Biden has and the number of undecideds/other, i.e. the ground Trump has to make up on Biden, it looks pretty daunting.

View attachment 395235

The higher the number, the better it is for Trump. Anything with a zero or a negative number means there is no runway for Trump to catch up based on current polling. In PA, it's virtually zero. If this is true, then Biden would flip MI PA and WI and win the election.

Now does this mean Biden is certainly going to win? No, of course not. Of course Trump can win. Something may happen between now and the election. Polls might be off. The pandemic may affect voting. Maybe Biden really does have Alzheimer's and he shows it. Who knows?

But this is a different election than 2016, and it appears Trump has a higher hill to climb.

Other pollsters came to the same conclusion you did. The shy Trump voter is a myth.

 

[healthmyths]

Trump’s an asshole. If I were voting for him I’d be shy to.

Biden’s an inept, Socialists/Marxists moron, but then again, so are those that support him. They aren’t even smart enough to figure out just how dumb it makes them look so they certainly aren’t shy.

Just like a kooky lib who thinks Don is controlled by Putin, cons think Joe is a socialist/Marxist. LMFAO. Joe has a 50 year track record that doesn’t include a smidgen of socialism or Marxism.

DOPE!

His track record doesn’t have anything of note period. Other than creating tax codes that help the rich and legislation that incarcerated minorities.

That’s absurd. Joe’s a con like you.

He’s already nothing will change when gets elected. He’s said several times he won’t include any policies promoted by Bernie. His whole career in the senate he’s wanted to cut social programs , while expanding the war budget.

Incorrect. He openly lied about far left policies listed on his own web page th he supports..

Yet his 50 year history reveals nothing even vaguely socialist or Marxist. Please WTFU!

Except of course his association with the Obama administration,the backing of AOC. And the outright refusal to denounce ANTIFA and BLM.

I suppose you think Ears is a socialist Marxist too. Good god woman, wake up.

I totally agree Obama hates America, wants to see it become a socialist state.
Proof?
See the attached for statements and policies that are 180 degrees different from Trump, me and millions of true Americans who KNOW statistically that while our capitalist based society has flaws... IT is better by far than any other form, especially what idiots like Obama support!
FACT: Biden/Obama, et.al. support health care for all... i.e. socialized medicine. WHY?
49% of all Americans have employer health insurance..i.e. that is 161 million of 330 million... who's pre-existing conditions are covered!
62 million people on MEDICARE who's pre-existing conditions are covered! Running total 222 million have health insurance
VA... 8.92 million people enrolled in VA health care system -- running total 230 million.. Pre-existing conditions...covered!
Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) provide health and long-term care coverage 70 million low-income children, pregnant women, adults, seniors, and people with disabilities in the United States. Pre-existing conditions covered.
Running total 300 million...

Medicaid State Fact Sheets

What percentage of people are covered by Medicaid in your state? Our State Medicaid fact sheets provide a snapshot with key data for Medicaid in every state related to current coverage, access, and…

www.kff.org

Finally how many Americans have private health insurance?

• Percent of adults aged 18-64 with private insurance at time of interview: 68.9% of 191,499,600 or 131,943,224 Americans who's pre-existing conditions are covered!
• FastStats
• Population Distribution by Age

Total Americans with some kind of health insurance/coverage: 431,943,224! WAIT the American population is ONLY 330 Million??
What is the problem here and OBAMA said there were 46 million uninsured??? WAIT .... WHAT GIVES!!!

 

[Norman]

Or maybe, maybe...

The polls just like the entire democratic apparatus is lying to you.

 

[Oddball]

They are real....@ 5:00.

Enough to win?....Can't say....But they do in fact exist.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

I suspect like 2016 the polls are over sampled, biased and possibly the OP's theory people are reluctant to share.

Hell the left shits themselves over MAGA hats

 

[boedicca]

Why people who plan to vote for Trump either refuse to participate in polls or lie about their choices:

1. The Progs have gone completely bat-shit crazy with hatred to the point of violence.
2. The Tech platforms censor, deplatform and enable attacks on Trump supporters; having data records of voting choices puts them at risk.
3. Employers, especially big corporate ones, are cowering before BLM-Marixist thugs; and people who work for them do not want to get fired because they support Trump.
4. In Blue Areas, Trump supporters especially stay under cover as they don't want their home vandalized and their families and themselves attacked.

 

[healthmyths]

First, I'm not making any predictions about the election whatsoever. I'm not saying Biden or Trump is going to win. Nor am I saying that that this theory isn't true. I just want to see if there is any empirical data to suggest that this "Shy Trump Voter" theory is statistically true.

The theory is that many Trump voters don't want to tell pollsters that they are really voting for Trump. The theory psotulates that social disapproval leads people not to be truthful that they are supporting the President.

If this were the case - that voters were telling pollsters one thing but doing the other - it should be pretty simple to see in the data. On a net basis, what that means is that Trump's actual number of votes should materially differ from what pollsters were estimating Trump's vote to be.

I looked at 13 states from the 2016 election - six that most pundits consider swing states, and seven that pundits think will not flip but could be in play. The data is from RCP.

View attachment 395223

The first column is the estimate of Trump's vote by the polling firms. The second column is Trump's actual votes. As you can see, in all but one case, Trump's vote was actually higher than what pollsters were estimating.

But that was true for the most part for Clinton too.

Why would that happen? Why would both candidate's actual vote tallies be higher than what was being shown in the polls? Because people who were undecided made their decision on election day. And they voted mostly for Trump.

But assuming that the differential between Trump's actual votes and polling numbers were all because of shy voters (they weren't), and not because people were genuinely undecided until they stepped into the polling booth, it appears that there isn't much statistical significant evidence of this theory. Perhaps except for one very notable, and important, exception.

The average between Trump's votes and polling numbers of the 13 states is 3.2%. Most state polls have a margin of error of 4% or greater, so this average is likely not statistically significant. In fact, the differences are below 4% in 10 of the 13 states.

However, it is above 4% in three critical states - IA OH and WI - all states Trump flipped, and were critical in him winning. So perhaps the Shy Voter Theory only applies to the (critically important) Midwest.

There is no evidence that people said they were voting for Clinton then voting for Trump. Or if there was, it wouldn't matter because what matters is the net differential between what the polls were telling us and what actually happened. IOW, there may have been pollsters who were "Shy Hillary Voters," and saying they were voting for Trump and actually voting for Clinton. But that's unlikely. Thus, most "Shy Trump Voters" were probably saying they were undecided or not saying anything.

The problem this time around for Trump is that there are fewer people who are undecided. These numbers come from both RCP and 538. Those who are saying they are undecided is down by about a third from last election.

View attachment 395228

This is especially a problem for Trump because he is further behind Biden than he was behind Clinton. In all 13 states, Biden is out-polling Clinton.

View attachment 395234

And if you look at the gap between the lead Biden has and the number of undecideds/other, i.e. the ground Trump has to make up on Biden, it looks pretty daunting.

View attachment 395235

The higher the number, the better it is for Trump. Anything with a zero or a negative number means there is no runway for Trump to catch up based on current polling. In PA, it's virtually zero. If this is true, then Biden would flip MI PA and WI and win the election.

Now does this mean Biden is certainly going to win? No, of course not. Of course Trump can win. Something may happen between now and the election. Polls might be off. The pandemic may affect voting. Maybe Biden really does have Alzheimer's and he shows it. Who knows?

But this is a different election than 2016, and it appears Trump has a higher hill to climb.

Other pollsters came to the same conclusion you did. The shy Trump voter is a myth.

Then explain this:
Do Polls Still Work If People Don’t Answer Their Phones?
“The jury’s out” on whether historically low response rates could make surveys less accurate.
Pollsters face a growing obstacle in gathering Americans’ opinions: getting people to answer their calls. The proportion of people called who answer the survey — in pollster jargon, the “response rate” — has dropped dramatically over the last few decades as Americans have changed how they interact with the world.
Even worse for pollsters, landline telephones, which are quicker and cheaper to call, have been steadily disappearing over the last 20 years. Almost half of the American population is now solely reliant on mobile phones.
ll of these factors have resulted in less efficient polling than in the past.
A 2012 report from Pew Research, one of the nation’s most reputable pollsters, showed a 9 percent response rate, compared to nearly 40 percent in the late 1990s.
The vast majority of pollsters don’t even report their response rates.

Do Polls Still Work If People Don't Answer Their Phones?

"The jury's out" on whether historically low response rates could make surveys less accurate.

www.huffpost.com

Now I don't answer my cell phone IF...

• A) the caller is NOT in my contact list...(by the way a very simple service provided by your phone!)
• B) Or I don't know the number which is almost all the time!

Consequently I've never been part of a poll as I don't answer the phone... like over 90% of other Americans also don't answer!

 

[Toro]

More there is no empirical evidence of shy Trump voters.

Politics Podcast: There Just Isn’t Good Evidence That ‘Shy’ Trump Voters Exist

This is the final(!) preelection installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. Galen Druke talks to editor-in-chief Nate Silver about the l…

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[healthmyths]

More there is no empirical evidence of shy Trump voters.

Politics Podcast: There Just Isn’t Good Evidence That ‘Shy’ Trump Voters Exist

This is the final(!) preelection installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. Galen Druke talks to editor-in-chief Nate Silver about the l…

fivethirtyeight.com

FiveThirtyEight is your source?
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• Overall, we rate FiveThirtyEight (538) Left-Center Biased based on story selection that slightly favors the left, but does not favor the progressive left. We also rate them High for factual reporting due to proper sourcing of information, a solid record with poll analysis and a clean fact check record.

FiveThirtyEight - Bias and Credibility

LEFT-CENTER BIAS These media sources have a slight to moderate liberal bias. They often publish factual information that utilizes loaded words (wording

mediabiasfactcheck.com

 

[WEATHER53]

I would call it sensible as opposed to shy. We don’t declare our intentions and then stand up to take live fire from raving, lawless emotional basket cases.

 

[The Original Tree]

Hillary in a Landslide!

END THREAD

 

[WEATHER53]

Hillary in a Landslide!

END THREAD

It happened once before and can again

 

[JimBowie1958]

More there is no empirical evidence of shy Trump voters.

Why don't we discuss it more this coming Wednesday morning?

 

[JimBowie1958]

This is the RCP list of polls for the state of Wisconsin, which shows a 17 point gap from the lowest to highest poll results.

Why do people take this shit seriously?

 

[Toro]

It's one thing to not tell pollsters how they're voting. It's another to do it in an anonymous poll.

 

[The2ndAmendment]

But don't all Trumpsters on USMB declare how ALL of America agrees w/Trump and how he and the rest of them are ALL the REAL Americans?

If that's really the case, what's to be ashamed of?

No.

Trump voters are "shy" because they fear retribution from "caring and loving tolerant progressives."

 

[Sun Devil 92]

But don't all Trumpsters on USMB declare how ALL of America agrees w/Trump and how he and the rest of them are ALL the REAL Americans?

If that's really the case, what's to be ashamed of?

What the fuck are you babbling about ?

Your state just fucked up...again.