The national polls got it right in 2016

busybee01

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Trump's followers would have us believe that Trump defied all the national polls and won the election. They could not be more wrong.

In the first place, the national polls gauge the popular vote, not the Electoral College.

In the second place, Trump lost the popular vote by three million. Trump won in the Electoral College because voters in small states (in terms of population) have a larger say in the Presidential election than the voters in large states.

American University Professor Allan Lichtman who became famous for accurately predicting the winner of every Presidential election since 1984 -- including 2016 -- has issued his verdict for 2020: Joe Biden will defeat President Trump.

But the historian got it wrong. The Times writes, "Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong."

No, they were not!

National polls only measure the popular vote. Clinton did, in fact, win the national popular vote by 2.1 points. The average of the 13 final national polls had Clinton ahead by 3.1 points, which was only a point off the actual result.
One last look: 2016 polls actually got a lot right | TheHill

The election was won by less than 80,000 votes. Axios reports that Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by 0.2, 0.7 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively — and by 10,704, 46,765 and 22,177 votes. Those three wins gave him 46 electoral votes; if Clinton had done one point better in each state, she'd have won the electoral vote, too."

Nearly everyone today has forgotten the effect James Comey had on the election. Eleven days before Election Day, FBI Director Comey reopened the FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton. Clinton had a substantial lead in the polls, but in the week that followed Comey's announcement her lead quickly evaporated. Two days before the election, Comey issued a "sorry about that" and closed the investigation for lack of anything new.

The Hill reports, "Exit polling found that late-deciders in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin broke for Trump by double-digit margins as high as 29 points."

During the election campaign, every voter in the country knew that the FBI was investigating Clinton. The FBI was also investigating the Trump campaign for its alleged cooperation with Russia. Voters were not aware of that investigation until after the election.
In the first place, the national polls gauge the popular vote, not the Electoral College.

There were no polls in 2016 that gauged the Electoral College?

The election was won by less than 80,000 votes.

The election was won....304-221
The electoral college can follow the popular vote. Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points and lost by 80,000 votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If Biden was to win by 5 then those three states would likely fall into the Democrat column.
 

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Trump's followers would have us believe that Trump defied all the national polls and won the election. They could not be more wrong.

In the first place, the national polls gauge the popular vote, not the Electoral College.

In the second place, Trump lost the popular vote by three million. Trump won in the Electoral College because voters in small states (in terms of population) have a larger say in the Presidential election than the voters in large states.

American University Professor Allan Lichtman who became famous for accurately predicting the winner of every Presidential election since 1984 -- including 2016 -- has issued his verdict for 2020: Joe Biden will defeat President Trump.

But the historian got it wrong. The Times writes, "Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong."

No, they were not!

National polls only measure the popular vote. Clinton did, in fact, win the national popular vote by 2.1 points. The average of the 13 final national polls had Clinton ahead by 3.1 points, which was only a point off the actual result.
One last look: 2016 polls actually got a lot right | TheHill

The election was won by less than 80,000 votes. Axios reports that Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by 0.2, 0.7 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively — and by 10,704, 46,765 and 22,177 votes. Those three wins gave him 46 electoral votes; if Clinton had done one point better in each state, she'd have won the electoral vote, too."

Nearly everyone today has forgotten the effect James Comey had on the election. Eleven days before Election Day, FBI Director Comey reopened the FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton. Clinton had a substantial lead in the polls, but in the week that followed Comey's announcement her lead quickly evaporated. Two days before the election, Comey issued a "sorry about that" and closed the investigation for lack of anything new.

The Hill reports, "Exit polling found that late-deciders in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin broke for Trump by double-digit margins as high as 29 points."

During the election campaign, every voter in the country knew that the FBI was investigating Clinton. The FBI was also investigating the Trump campaign for its alleged cooperation with Russia. Voters were not aware of that investigation until after the election.
In the first place, the national polls gauge the popular vote, not the Electoral College.

There were no polls in 2016 that gauged the Electoral College?

The election was won by less than 80,000 votes.

The election was won....304-221
The electoral college can follow the popular vote. Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points and lost by 80,000 votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If Biden was to win by 5 then those three states would likely fall into the Democrat column.
Biden wont win anything....remember he was on his way out of the primaries, enjoying the same usual last place finish he always does even among Democrat voters, before the DNC took over and manipulated the scenario. Sleepy Joe will get slaughtered
 

busybee01

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LOL!! Another attempt to rewrite 2016...here it is again in case you forgot:
Everything in the OP is correct. But it was barely 77,000 votes across three states. None of which he is leading in right now. He's also down in Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona and running just about even in Texas and Ohio.
He has a record to run on this year. He's not the outsider. All people are seeing right now is 160K dead (and climbing), 12% unemployment, and a guy who doesn't seem like he can stay focused long enough to finish a sentence.
This ain't 2016. :)
Lib please outside of California Trump crushed you by over 1 million votes in the other 49 states you got your ass handed to you. Dems were walking funny for months after. There was a run on painkillers and anti-depression meds. It's as if God punished the Democrats :eusa_dance:
46 swing electoral votes that went to Trump over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. None of which he's leading in right now.
But yeah, Trump crushed em! :)
46 swing electoral votes that went to Trump over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. None of which he's leading in right now.

What did the polls say in those 3 states in August 2016?
The polls in Pennsylvania got it within the margin of error. The RCP average had Clinton up by 2.1 percetage points. Trump won by 0.7 percentage points.
 

busybee01

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Trump's followers would have us believe that Trump defied all the national polls and won the election. They could not be more wrong.

In the first place, the national polls gauge the popular vote, not the Electoral College.

In the second place, Trump lost the popular vote by three million. Trump won in the Electoral College because voters in small states (in terms of population) have a larger say in the Presidential election than the voters in large states.

American University Professor Allan Lichtman who became famous for accurately predicting the winner of every Presidential election since 1984 -- including 2016 -- has issued his verdict for 2020: Joe Biden will defeat President Trump.

But the historian got it wrong. The Times writes, "Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong."

No, they were not!

National polls only measure the popular vote. Clinton did, in fact, win the national popular vote by 2.1 points. The average of the 13 final national polls had Clinton ahead by 3.1 points, which was only a point off the actual result.
One last look: 2016 polls actually got a lot right | TheHill

The election was won by less than 80,000 votes. Axios reports that Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by 0.2, 0.7 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively — and by 10,704, 46,765 and 22,177 votes. Those three wins gave him 46 electoral votes; if Clinton had done one point better in each state, she'd have won the electoral vote, too."

Nearly everyone today has forgotten the effect James Comey had on the election. Eleven days before Election Day, FBI Director Comey reopened the FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton. Clinton had a substantial lead in the polls, but in the week that followed Comey's announcement her lead quickly evaporated. Two days before the election, Comey issued a "sorry about that" and closed the investigation for lack of anything new.

The Hill reports, "Exit polling found that late-deciders in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin broke for Trump by double-digit margins as high as 29 points."

During the election campaign, every voter in the country knew that the FBI was investigating Clinton. The FBI was also investigating the Trump campaign for its alleged cooperation with Russia. Voters were not aware of that investigation until after the election.
In the first place, the national polls gauge the popular vote, not the Electoral College.

There were no polls in 2016 that gauged the Electoral College?

The election was won by less than 80,000 votes.

The election was won....304-221
The electoral college can follow the popular vote. Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points and lost by 80,000 votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If Biden was to win by 5 then those three states would likely fall into the Democrat column.
Biden wont win anything....remember he was on his way out of the primaries, enjoying the same usual last place finish he always does even among Democrat voters, before the DNC took over and manipulated the scenario. Sleepy Joe will get slaughtered
The DNC changed nothing. It was voters in SC that gave Biden a big win with 50% of the vote. Again you qare clueless. Never let facts get in your way.
 

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LOL!! Another attempt to rewrite 2016...here it is again in case you forgot:

Yes, we know stupid rednecks in South Carolina voted for Trump, because they loved his racist dog whistles and hate Hispanics as much as Trump does.
Fine people.

Here's one of SC's finest who voted for Trump and swallowed the whole Hillary-child-trafficking-pizza parlor "Pizzagate" conspiracy that Trump had QAnon spread.
We know how that turned out.

YOUR AVERAGE IGNORANT ARROGANT SOUTH CAROLINA TRUMP SUPPORTER
NOW IN PRISON FOR 4 YEARS
YOU GO, TRUMPTARDS!


IQ tests show that the stupidest people in the country vote overwhelmingly Democrat, Blacks, 93% for starters.
 

busybee01

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LOL!! Another attempt to rewrite 2016...here it is again in case you forgot:
Everything in the OP is correct. But it was barely 77,000 votes across three states. None of which he is leading in right now. He's also down in Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona and running just about even in Texas and Ohio.
He has a record to run on this year. He's not the outsider. All people are seeing right now is 160K dead (and climbing), 12% unemployment, and a guy who doesn't seem like he can stay focused long enough to finish a sentence.
This ain't 2016. :)
1. The entire point of the 2016 video is that early polls are wrong, and the 95% negative MSM is wrong. The blue archipelago, or democrat plantations can be very blue, but that does not account for the solid red areas. Polls won't matter until after the debates. I also know union folks who will swear they will vote for Biden when polled, but like in 2016, they will vote for Trump.
View attachment 371910

2. If the democrats are trying to blame Trump for the covid pandemic, voters are not stupid. Good luck with Biden after the debates.

3. In November you can either vote with the police, or vote with the criminals.
1. The early polls were correct. They initially showed Clinton with a large lead over Trump however it dropped as time went on. The Democrat primary results were not all that impressive for Clinton. The polls in 2020 have been steady for Biden. The pandemic is not going away and Trump's lack of leadership has been exposed. His Axios interview was a disaster. That is not good.

2. Trump is receiving poor marks for his handling of the pandemic. He has done everything he can to help it spread.

3. That is not what it is about. It is about whether there should be police reform or not. Trump and Republicans are on the wrong side of this.
 

kaz

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Trump's followers would have us believe that Trump defied all the national polls and won the election. They could not be more wrong.

In the first place, the national polls gauge the popular vote, not the Electoral College.

In the second place, Trump lost the popular vote by three million. Trump won in the Electoral College because voters in small states (in terms of population) have a larger say in the Presidential election than the voters in large states.

American University Professor Allan Lichtman who became famous for accurately predicting the winner of every Presidential election since 1984 -- including 2016 -- has issued his verdict for 2020: Joe Biden will defeat President Trump.

But the historian got it wrong. The Times writes, "Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong."

No, they were not!

National polls only measure the popular vote. Clinton did, in fact, win the national popular vote by 2.1 points. The average of the 13 final national polls had Clinton ahead by 3.1 points, which was only a point off the actual result.
One last look: 2016 polls actually got a lot right | TheHill

The election was won by less than 80,000 votes. Axios reports that Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by 0.2, 0.7 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively — and by 10,704, 46,765 and 22,177 votes. Those three wins gave him 46 electoral votes; if Clinton had done one point better in each state, she'd have won the electoral vote, too."

Nearly everyone today has forgotten the effect James Comey had on the election. Eleven days before Election Day, FBI Director Comey reopened the FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton. Clinton had a substantial lead in the polls, but in the week that followed Comey's announcement her lead quickly evaporated. Two days before the election, Comey issued a "sorry about that" and closed the investigation for lack of anything new.

The Hill reports, "Exit polling found that late-deciders in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin broke for Trump by double-digit margins as high as 29 points."

During the election campaign, every voter in the country knew that the FBI was investigating Clinton. The FBI was also investigating the Trump campaign for its alleged cooperation with Russia. Voters were not aware of that investigation until after the election.

If the polls were right, then why did they say Hillary had a 98% chance of winning? You're thinking the pollsters didn't know about the electoral college?
 

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LOL!! Another attempt to rewrite 2016...here it is again in case you forgot:
Everything in the OP is correct. But it was barely 77,000 votes across three states. None of which he is leading in right now. He's also down in Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona and running just about even in Texas and Ohio.
He has a record to run on this year. He's not the outsider. All people are seeing right now is 160K dead (and climbing), 12% unemployment, and a guy who doesn't seem like he can stay focused long enough to finish a sentence.
This ain't 2016. :)
Yeah but anyone with a brain knows it was Killer Cuomo and his band of Dem governors in sanctuary states leading that death total with around 90 plus thousand of our total in six states....they blew it not the President libber. And we will be out to vote for him without having taken any doofus polls
Go for it. He will always have his loyal base of 32-35% (depending on who's poll you believe). But the independents and even some conservative Republicans are long gone. And the people who stayed on the sidelines in 2016 will be out on November 3rd to make sure this chucklehead and his merry band of sycophants get shown the door. Hopefully, they'll take a lot of Republicans with them.
There just aren't enough of you true believers to get him over the hump this time.
Your per cents are just a little higher than the number of Patriots that it took to kick King George's ass in the American Revolution!
 

Toddsterpatriot

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LOL!! Another attempt to rewrite 2016...here it is again in case you forgot:
Everything in the OP is correct. But it was barely 77,000 votes across three states. None of which he is leading in right now. He's also down in Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona and running just about even in Texas and Ohio.
He has a record to run on this year. He's not the outsider. All people are seeing right now is 160K dead (and climbing), 12% unemployment, and a guy who doesn't seem like he can stay focused long enough to finish a sentence.
This ain't 2016. :)
Lib please outside of California Trump crushed you by over 1 million votes in the other 49 states you got your ass handed to you. Dems were walking funny for months after. There was a run on painkillers and anti-depression meds. It's as if God punished the Democrats :eusa_dance:
46 swing electoral votes that went to Trump over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. None of which he's leading in right now.
But yeah, Trump crushed em! :)
46 swing electoral votes that went to Trump over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. None of which he's leading in right now.

What did the polls say in those 3 states in August 2016?
The polls in Pennsylvania got it within the margin of error. The RCP average had Clinton up by 2.1 percetage points. Trump won by 0.7 percentage points.
The RCP average had Clinton up by 2.1 percetage points.

1596748978033.png



In August, RCP had Hillary up by 8%.
 

Sun Devil 92

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Trump's followers would have us believe that Trump defied all the national polls and won the election. They could not be more wrong.

In the first place, the national polls gauge the popular vote, not the Electoral College.

In the second place, Trump lost the popular vote by three million. Trump won in the Electoral College because voters in small states (in terms of population) have a larger say in the Presidential election than the voters in large states.

American University Professor Allan Lichtman who became famous for accurately predicting the winner of every Presidential election since 1984 -- including 2016 -- has issued his verdict for 2020: Joe Biden will defeat President Trump.

But the historian got it wrong. The Times writes, "Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong."

No, they were not!

National polls only measure the popular vote. Clinton did, in fact, win the national popular vote by 2.1 points. The average of the 13 final national polls had Clinton ahead by 3.1 points, which was only a point off the actual result.
One last look: 2016 polls actually got a lot right | TheHill

The election was won by less than 80,000 votes. Axios reports that Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by 0.2, 0.7 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively — and by 10,704, 46,765 and 22,177 votes. Those three wins gave him 46 electoral votes; if Clinton had done one point better in each state, she'd have won the electoral vote, too."

Nearly everyone today has forgotten the effect James Comey had on the election. Eleven days before Election Day, FBI Director Comey reopened the FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton. Clinton had a substantial lead in the polls, but in the week that followed Comey's announcement her lead quickly evaporated. Two days before the election, Comey issued a "sorry about that" and closed the investigation for lack of anything new.

The Hill reports, "Exit polling found that late-deciders in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin broke for Trump by double-digit margins as high as 29 points."

During the election campaign, every voter in the country knew that the FBI was investigating Clinton. The FBI was also investigating the Trump campaign for its alleged cooperation with Russia. Voters were not aware of that investigation until after the election.
Leads don't quickly evaporate.

What that means is that people who are answering questions one way are not really committed.

Which is what makes polling so specious.

It's those late deciders that make the difference.

They are waiting longer and longer.

And this year will be a real interesting one.
 

Levant

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Trump's followers would have us believe that Trump defied all the national polls and won the election. They could not be more wrong.

In the first place, the national polls gauge the popular vote, not the Electoral College.

In the second place, Trump lost the popular vote by three million. Trump won in the Electoral College because voters in small states (in terms of population) have a larger say in the Presidential election than the voters in large states.
In the zeroth place, you have zero knowledge or understanding about that of which you speak.

In the first place, polls do guess on the electoral college. There are national polls and state polls. The swing state polls, such as Real Clear Politics Wisconsin poll, had Hillary winning by over 6%. She lost. Trump won. Clinton lost. Clinton was rejected.


In the second place, the popular vote doesn't matter. It was a very specific intent that small states have as much say in electing a president than the big states. What you're promoting is the idea four states, New York, California, Florida, and Texas, would elect the president. No other states would have a say if those four states voted the same.




Sour grapes on the left over Trump kicking Hillary's ass in 2016 is driving the left to strip the voice of black Americans throughout the rest of the country - but, the, the left has been doing all they can to strip the voice of blacks in the United States ever since the Republicans forced the Democrats to give them a voice. All those black people in red below, and even the black minorities in every county in the country, may as well not vote because their vote won't count if you take away the electoral college.

 

Levant

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46 swing electoral votes that went to Trump over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. None of which he's leading in right now.
But yeah, Trump crushed em! :)
You understand that the polls in 2016 showed him losing all those states, too. Trump may win or he may lose; it ain't over 'till it's over.
 

Levant

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LOL!! Another attempt to rewrite 2016...here it is again in case you forgot:
Everything in the OP is correct. But it was barely 77,000 votes across three states. None of which he is leading in right now. He's also down in Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona and running just about even in Texas and Ohio.
He has a record to run on this year. He's not the outsider. All people are seeing right now is 160K dead (and climbing), 12% unemployment, and a guy who doesn't seem like he can stay focused long enough to finish a sentence.
This ain't 2016. :)
Lib please outside of California Trump crushed you by over 1 million votes in the other 49 states you got your ass handed to you. Dems were walking funny for months after. There was a run on painkillers and anti-depression meds. It's as if God punished the Democrats :eusa_dance:
46 swing electoral votes that went to Trump over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. None of which he's leading in right now.
But yeah, Trump crushed em! :)
46 swing electoral votes that went to Trump over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. None of which he's leading in right now.

What did the polls say in those 3 states in August 2016?
The polls in Pennsylvania got it within the margin of error. The RCP average had Clinton up by 2.1 percetage points. Trump won by 0.7 percentage points.
The RCP average had Clinton up by 2.1 percetage points.

View attachment 371945


In August, RCP had Hillary up by 8%.
I should have read the whole thread before posting that same poll. You give good research!
 

kyzr

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LOL!! Another attempt to rewrite 2016...here it is again in case you forgot:
Everything in the OP is correct. But it was barely 77,000 votes across three states. None of which he is leading in right now. He's also down in Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona and running just about even in Texas and Ohio.
He has a record to run on this year. He's not the outsider. All people are seeing right now is 160K dead (and climbing), 12% unemployment, and a guy who doesn't seem like he can stay focused long enough to finish a sentence.
This ain't 2016. :)
1. The entire point of the 2016 video is that early polls are wrong, and the 95% negative MSM is wrong. The blue archipelago, or democrat plantations can be very blue, but that does not account for the solid red areas. Polls won't matter until after the debates. I also know union folks who will swear they will vote for Biden when polled, but like in 2016, they will vote for Trump.
View attachment 371910

2. If the democrats are trying to blame Trump for the covid pandemic, voters are not stupid. Good luck with Biden after the debates.

3. In November you can either vote with the police, or vote with the criminals.
1. The early polls were correct. They initially showed Clinton with a large lead over Trump however it dropped as time went on. The Democrat primary results were not all that impressive for Clinton. The polls in 2020 have been steady for Biden. The pandemic is not going away and Trump's lack of leadership has been exposed. His Axios interview was a disaster. That is not good.

2. Trump is receiving poor marks for his handling of the pandemic. He has done everything he can to help it spread.

3. That is not what it is about. It is about whether there should be police reform or not. Trump and Republicans are on the wrong side of this.
1. We have very different takes on polls and Biden. The polls were wrong in 2016, and they are wrong in 2020. The pandemic is China's fault, not Trump's. Whining about Trump for the pandemic won't deter any Trump voters, IMHO Trump will flip more Biden voters than Biden flips Trump voters.
2. Trump received poor marks from whom? The MSM that is always 95% negative? No one cares what the partisan hack "fake news" MSM says.
3. This is EXACTLY what it is about, the police are all supporting Trump.
In November you can either vote with the police, or vote with the criminals.
 

JackOfNoTrades

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LOL!! Another attempt to rewrite 2016...here it is again in case you forgot:
Everything in the OP is correct. But it was barely 77,000 votes across three states. None of which he is leading in right now. He's also down in Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona and running just about even in Texas and Ohio.
He has a record to run on this year. He's not the outsider. All people are seeing right now is 160K dead (and climbing), 12% unemployment, and a guy who doesn't seem like he can stay focused long enough to finish a sentence.
This ain't 2016. :)
1. The entire point of the 2016 video is that early polls are wrong, and the 95% negative MSM is wrong. The blue archipelago, or democrat plantations can be very blue, but that does not account for the solid red areas. Polls won't matter until after the debates. I also know union folks who will swear they will vote for Biden when polled, but like in 2016, they will vote for Trump.
View attachment 371910

2. If the democrats are trying to blame Trump for the covid pandemic, voters are not stupid. Good luck with Biden after the debates.

3. In November you can either vote with the police, or vote with the criminals.
1) Again, this isn't 2016. The incumbent has a record. And you can post brightly colored maps with a lot open space in this country that is considered red all that you want. States like Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Utah are sparsely populated. We already know these states are going to vote red. As you right wingers so rightly point out, the state's electoral votes are what count. And right now, he's behind in all the states he carried in 2016..and running even to behind in three others he won by a significant margin. And I wouldn't hope too greatly for those debates. The second Trump has to explain policy and can't resort to his bullying tactics or blustering, he's toast.

2) Voters already blame Trump for the response to COVID-19. Despite lists of "accomplishments" I've seen you post here and those on his campaign's website, nothing he did actually contributed to slowing or preventing the spread of the virus until the adults were forced to sideline him on March 13th.

3) On November 3rd, you'll be voting either for a return to sanity and policy making or continued incompetence and corruption. Not much of a choice there. Biden with all his gaffes and with all the shit right wing media is throwing against the wall in vain hope of salvaging Trump's re-election, Biden is a better choice. Hands down.
 
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JackOfNoTrades

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46 swing electoral votes that went to Trump over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. None of which he's leading in right now.
But yeah, Trump crushed em! :)
You understand that the polls in 2016 showed him losing all those states, too. Trump may win or he may lose; it ain't over 'till it's over.
Pssst. This is 2020. 160K dead. 12% unemployment. He has a record. Back then, he didn't.
 

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Trump's followers would have us believe that Trump defied all the national polls and won the election. They could not be more wrong.

In the first place, the national polls gauge the popular vote, not the Electoral College.

In the second place, Trump lost the popular vote by three million. Trump won in the Electoral College because voters in small states (in terms of population) have a larger say in the Presidential election than the voters in large states.

American University Professor Allan Lichtman who became famous for accurately predicting the winner of every Presidential election since 1984 -- including 2016 -- has issued his verdict for 2020: Joe Biden will defeat President Trump.

But the historian got it wrong. The Times writes, "Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong."

No, they were not!

National polls only measure the popular vote. Clinton did, in fact, win the national popular vote by 2.1 points. The average of the 13 final national polls had Clinton ahead by 3.1 points, which was only a point off the actual result.
One last look: 2016 polls actually got a lot right | TheHill

The election was won by less than 80,000 votes. Axios reports that Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by 0.2, 0.7 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively — and by 10,704, 46,765 and 22,177 votes. Those three wins gave him 46 electoral votes; if Clinton had done one point better in each state, she'd have won the electoral vote, too."

Nearly everyone today has forgotten the effect James Comey had on the election. Eleven days before Election Day, FBI Director Comey reopened the FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton. Clinton had a substantial lead in the polls, but in the week that followed Comey's announcement her lead quickly evaporated. Two days before the election, Comey issued a "sorry about that" and closed the investigation for lack of anything new.

The Hill reports, "Exit polling found that late-deciders in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin broke for Trump by double-digit margins as high as 29 points."

During the election campaign, every voter in the country knew that the FBI was investigating Clinton. The FBI was also investigating the Trump campaign for its alleged cooperation with Russia. Voters were not aware of that investigation until after the election.
Trump's followers would have us believe that Trump defied all the national polls and won the election. They could not be more wrong.

In the first place, the national polls gauge the popular vote, not the Electoral College.

In the second place, Trump lost the popular vote by three million. Trump won in the Electoral College because voters in small states (in terms of population) have a larger say in the Presidential election than the voters in large states.

American University Professor Allan Lichtman who became famous for accurately predicting the winner of every Presidential election since 1984 -- including 2016 -- has issued his verdict for 2020: Joe Biden will defeat President Trump.

But the historian got it wrong. The Times writes, "Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong."

No, they were not!

National polls only measure the popular vote. Clinton did, in fact, win the national popular vote by 2.1 points. The average of the 13 final national polls had Clinton ahead by 3.1 points, which was only a point off the actual result.
One last look: 2016 polls actually got a lot right | TheHill

The election was won by less than 80,000 votes. Axios reports that Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by 0.2, 0.7 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively — and by 10,704, 46,765 and 22,177 votes. Those three wins gave him 46 electoral votes; if Clinton had done one point better in each state, she'd have won the electoral vote, too."

Nearly everyone today has forgotten the effect James Comey had on the election. Eleven days before Election Day, FBI Director Comey reopened the FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton. Clinton had a substantial lead in the polls, but in the week that followed Comey's announcement her lead quickly evaporated. Two days before the election, Comey issued a "sorry about that" and closed the investigation for lack of anything new.

The Hill reports, "Exit polling found that late-deciders in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin broke for Trump by double-digit margins as high as 29 points."

During the election campaign, every voter in the country knew that the FBI was investigating Clinton. The FBI was also investigating the Trump campaign for its alleged cooperation with Russia. Voters were not aware of that investigation until after the election.

Yep, the same FBI that Trump says is against him in the "witch hunt" was the same FBI that took to the podium to announce on live TV the results of the Clinton/email conclusion and did not mention that Trump's campaign was being investigated.
Be honest, is this a close depiction of you two?
 

kyzr

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LOL!! Another attempt to rewrite 2016...here it is again in case you forgot:
Everything in the OP is correct. But it was barely 77,000 votes across three states. None of which he is leading in right now. He's also down in Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona and running just about even in Texas and Ohio.
He has a record to run on this year. He's not the outsider. All people are seeing right now is 160K dead (and climbing), 12% unemployment, and a guy who doesn't seem like he can stay focused long enough to finish a sentence.
This ain't 2016. :)
1. The entire point of the 2016 video is that early polls are wrong, and the 95% negative MSM is wrong. The blue archipelago, or democrat plantations can be very blue, but that does not account for the solid red areas. Polls won't matter until after the debates. I also know union folks who will swear they will vote for Biden when polled, but like in 2016, they will vote for Trump.
View attachment 371910

2. If the democrats are trying to blame Trump for the covid pandemic, voters are not stupid. Good luck with Biden after the debates.

3. In November you can either vote with the police, or vote with the criminals.
1) Again, this isn't 2016. The incumbent has a record. And you can post brightly colored maps with a lot open space in this country that is considered red all that you want. States like Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Utah are sparsely populated. We already know these states are going to vote red. As you right wingers so rightly point out, the state's electoral votes are what count. And right now, he's behind in all the states he carried in 2016..and running even to behind in three others he won by a significant margin. And I wouldn't hope too greatly for those debates. The second Trump has to explain policy and can't resort to his bullying tactics or blustering, he's toast.

2) Voters already blame Trump for the response to COVID-19. Despite lists of "accomplishments" I've seen you post here and those on his campaign's website, nothing he did actually contributed to slowing or preventing the spread of the virus until the adults were forced to sideline Because he said so. :)

3) On November 3rd, you'll be voting either for a return to sanity and policy making or continued incompetence and corruption. Not much of a choice there. Biden with all his gaffes and with all the shit right wing media is throwing against the wall in vain hope of salvaging Trump's re-election, is a better choice. Hands down.
1. You seem so optimistic, I don't want to spoil your election hopes. I hope you watched the video I posted about 2016, its eerily like the "Trump can't win" MSM drumbeat now. The dems have a "blue wall" that Trump can't get over, Trump has no path to 270 electoral votes, etc. IMHO 2020 will be like this <again>
1596756810623.png


2. Which voters blame Trump for the pandemic response? Not the Trump voters. We (and more than a few democrat governors) think Trump did just fine thank you.

3. Before November 3rd happens there will be 3-debates between Biden and Trump. Topics Biden will need to answer are:
How does Hunter Biden deserve the $83,000 a month job with Burisma? How did Hunter get a cool $1,500,000,000 from China to "invest"? We saw the video of you threatening to withhold a $billion from the Ukraine if the prosecutor investigating Burisma isn't fired, that is corruption in plain sight. Explain Bernie's socialist policies you adopted. Explain Trump's "populist" economic policies you adopted. Explain your position on: defund the police, free college, free healthcare (Medicare for all), the green new deal, closing all pipelines, open borders, reparations, antifa, etc. I think the election will be over after the 1st debate.
 

JackOfNoTrades

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LOL!! Another attempt to rewrite 2016...here it is again in case you forgot:
Everything in the OP is correct. But it was barely 77,000 votes across three states. None of which he is leading in right now. He's also down in Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona and running just about even in Texas and Ohio.
He has a record to run on this year. He's not the outsider. All people are seeing right now is 160K dead (and climbing), 12% unemployment, and a guy who doesn't seem like he can stay focused long enough to finish a sentence.
This ain't 2016. :)
1. The entire point of the 2016 video is that early polls are wrong, and the 95% negative MSM is wrong. The blue archipelago, or democrat plantations can be very blue, but that does not account for the solid red areas. Polls won't matter until after the debates. I also know union folks who will swear they will vote for Biden when polled, but like in 2016, they will vote for Trump.
View attachment 371910

2. If the democrats are trying to blame Trump for the covid pandemic, voters are not stupid. Good luck with Biden after the debates.

3. In November you can either vote with the police, or vote with the criminals.
1) Again, this isn't 2016. The incumbent has a record. And you can post brightly colored maps with a lot open space in this country that is considered red all that you want. States like Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Utah are sparsely populated. We already know these states are going to vote red. As you right wingers so rightly point out, the state's electoral votes are what count. And right now, he's behind in all the states he carried in 2016..and running even to behind in three others he won by a significant margin. And I wouldn't hope too greatly for those debates. The second Trump has to explain policy and can't resort to his bullying tactics or blustering, he's toast.

2) Voters already blame Trump for the response to COVID-19. Despite lists of "accomplishments" I've seen you post here and those on his campaign's website, nothing he did actually contributed to slowing or preventing the spread of the virus until the adults were forced to sideline Because he said so. :)

3) On November 3rd, you'll be voting either for a return to sanity and policy making or continued incompetence and corruption. Not much of a choice there. Biden with all his gaffes and with all the shit right wing media is throwing against the wall in vain hope of salvaging Trump's re-election, is a better choice. Hands down.
1. You seem so optimistic, I don't want to spoil your election hopes. I hope you watched the video I posted about 2016, its eerily like the "Trump can't win" MSM drumbeat now. The dems have a "blue wall" that Trump can't get over, Trump has no path to 270 electoral votes, etc. IMHO 2020 will be like this <again>
View attachment 371986

2. Which voters blame Trump for the pandemic response? Not the Trump voters. We (and more than a few democrat governors) think Trump did just fine thank you.

3. Before November 3rd happens there will be 3-debates between Biden and Trump. Topics Biden will need to answer are:
How does Hunter Biden deserve the $83,000 a month job with Burisma? How did Hunter get a cool $1,500,000,000 from China to "invest"? We saw the video of you threatening to withhold a $billion from the Ukraine if the prosecutor investigating Burisma isn't fired, that is corruption in plain sight. Explain Bernie's socialist policies you adopted. Explain Trump's "populist" economic policies you adopted. Explain your position on: defund the police, free college, free healthcare (Medicare for all), the green new deal, closing all pipelines, open borders, reparations, antifa, etc. I think the election will be over after the 1st debate.
Yep, I know. Hope springs eternal in Trumpland. But hey, maybe that vaccine will be out by November 3rd. Oh yeah, and no one except you right wingers cares about Hunter Biden. I mean, literally, no one.
The rest?...Biden is a centrist. While he will certainly need to make concessions to bring the Bernie Bros on board, my guess is they'll want to vote the current hot mess out no matter what. They won't be staying home this year. Sorry. And the plethora of stuff to hit Trump with in a debate? A ill advised tax cut, a couple of bloated budgets, more "acting" heads of departments than just about any other administration, constant staff turnover, firing Comey, Charlottesville, Ukraine, impeachment, a blown response to the pandemic, and lookey!...The New York prosecutors investigating his financial dealings...so much to choose from and I haven't even listed them all. You're right, it won't take much for Biden to bury Trump in the first debate.
 

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