5/1/26
The GOP has performed poorly in a series of recent special elections, and rising gas prices amid the U.S. and Israel's war in Iran—along with recent polling that shows Trump's popularity in a slump—could damage public support for the party further. Trump, in an October 2025 interview, expressed concerns about losing the midterms. But three recent political trends might save the GOP.
Voting Rights Act
In a 6-3 decision on Wednesday, the Supreme Court weakened four decades of voting rights law, potentially giving Republicans a powerful tool to reshape congressional maps and improve their standing in the midterms and beyond. The ruling in Louisiana v. Callais strikes down Louisiana's congressional map and rewrites the legal test for proving racial discrimination in redistricting. It opens the door for Republican-controlled states to redraw maps in ways that were previously illegal. The impact of this decision for 2026 elections is limited because of filing deadlines, but the ruling could help the GOP in 2028 races.
Redistricting
There has been a national redistricting fight in which Republicans and Democrats alike have attempted to draw new state maps to affect the results of future votes and in turn affect the balance of power in Congress. On Wednesday, Florida state lawmakers passed Governor Ron DeSantis' new congressional map for the state that could boost Republicans' hold on the U.S. House. DeSantis is expected to sign the bill into law imminently, though it could trigger legal challenges. There have also been Republican redistricting efforts in other states, such as Texas, Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri.
SAVE Act
The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act (SAVE), which has passed the House, would reshape federal election rules by requiring proof of citizenship and photo identification to vote in elections.
Trump, a supporter of the legislation, told House Republicans that it would "guarantee the midterms." "If you don't get it, big trouble, my opinion," he said. To become law, the bill now needs to go through the Senate, but there appear to be no immediate plans to consider it.
www.newsweek.com
