The Kirk “Shooter”

[westwall]

You are completely losing the plot.

You posted this;



Then I posted video evidence this is not true.

Your knowledge of weapon systems and their counters does not negate what I saw. I usually respect you, but I thought you would have more sense than to try to gas-light me.

I gaslight no one, pal. I am FAR more knowledgeable about weapons systems, new and old, than you will ever be.

The Israeli system is old, and was designed to defend against the primitive rockets that were hurled in their thousands at them. It has never been meaningfully updated.

Our current Aegis system is fully capable of dealing with hypersonic missiles.

Our Patriot missiles are undergoing a PAC 3 (IIRC) upgrade that will make them capable as well.

There are three other systems undergoing testing right now to build a layered defense, to render any incoming hypersonic missile harmless.

Iran has problems actually fueling their missiles. They get their rocket fuel from china. That supply line is cut off now. We will have air supremacy in a few days and NOTHING will be able to move on the ground unless we let it.

But you keep singing the blues. It seems to entertain you.

 

[westwall]

Bullshit.

You are a passive-aggressive, and you habitually lie. I have caught you in lies.

Being passive-aggressive is disrespectful, lying doubly so.

I'm sort of like Trump in that way. . . if you treat me respectfully, I will do so in kind.

If you disrespect me, you should expect to harvest those fruits.

I have never disrespected you, not once, but you disrespected me, in this very thread.

So who's lying now?

 

[MisterBeale]

I am FAR more knowledgeable about weapons systems, new and old, than you will ever be.

I am not disagreeing with you.

However, you knowledge does not negate what I see with my own two eyes.

If you think it does, you are being very arrogant.

 

[MisterBeale]

I have never disrespected you, not once, but you disrespected me, in this very thread.

So who's lying now?

You disrespected me first, and far worse than a simple emoji reaction.

 

[westwall]

You disrespected me first, and far worse than a simple emoji reaction.

How did I disrespect you?

 

[westwall]

I am not disagreeing with you.

However, you knowledge does not negate what I see with my own two eyes.

If you think it does, you are being very arrogant.

I said very clearly that you saw what you saw, I also said it was an old defense system that you were watching.

You kinda ignored that.

 

[MisterBeale]

I said very clearly that you saw what you saw, I also said it was an old defense system that you were watching.

You kinda ignored that.

I apologize for the misunderstanding, you were not clear that Israel's defense system is old.

You gave the impression it was much older.

What they have that does work are their missiles and drones, but not very well overall. At least not against modern defenses.

This statement is obviously not true, b/c now you are claiming that the defense system it is up against is not modern.

Thus it stands to reason, what they have works perfectly fine for all the old systems they are up against.

 

[westwall]

I apologize for the misunderstanding, you were not clear that Israel's defense system is old.

View attachment 1226560

You gave the impression it was much older.



This statement is obviously not true, b/c now you are claiming that the defense system it is up against is not modern.

Thus it stands to reason, what they have works perfectly fine for all the old systems they are up against.

Technology advances very rapidly in the world of weaponry, and, like I said, Iron Dome was designed to be as effective as possible against simple rockets, while being as inexpensive as possible.

It was never designed for hypersonic missiles. Nor can it be modified to do so, it is a one trick pony.

 

[westwall]

I apologize for the misunderstanding, you were not clear that Israel's defense system is old.

View attachment 1226560

You gave the impression it was much older.



This statement is obviously not true, b/c now you are claiming that the defense system it is up against is not modern.

Thus it stands to reason, what they have works perfectly fine for all the old systems they are up against.

The Iranians launched THOUSANDS of drones. Eventually the defenses run out of munitions, and have to be replenished.

That's why being limited to a six shot revolver really sucks when you have ten dudes attacking you.

The drones were only successful in areas where Iron Dome or Patriots, or whatever air defense system involved, wasn't.

Only the Iranian hypersonic missiles can avoid them. And they don't have a lot of them.

Hell, you can shoot down most of those Iranian drones with rifles that have good optics, and specialized ammo.

 

[ShahdagMountains]

Bullshit.

You are a passive-aggressive, and you habitually lie. I have caught you in lies.

Being passive-aggressive is disrespectful, lying doubly so.

I'm sort of like Trump in that way. . . if you treat me respectfully, I will do so in kind.

If you disrespect me, you should expect to harvest those fruits.

The joke of the century.

You launched the first attack on me. Completely out of the blue.

You’re a liar too. I gave you the benefit of the doubt for far too long. And now you show your true colours.

 

[The Duke]

Russia is losing the war.

No, but the EU is propping up Ukraine to make it a forever war.
Ukraine's going to have to make some concessions.

 

[MisterBeale]

The joke of the century.

You launched the first attack on me. Completely out of the blue.

You’re a liar too. I gave you the benefit of the doubt for far too long. And now you show your true colours.

See? Moar lies.

 

[The Duke]

Actually it is. Morale in the Russian military is terrible. They had one group that was aggressive, and that was the Wagner Group. They revolted against pootin and paid the price with all of their top leadership assassinated.

So now, you have an army that doesn't want to fight, led by generals who don't know how to fight.

Russia can thank the various gods that no one in Ukraine knows how to fight either.

Both sides of that thing start swilling vodka at noon.
Seriously.
I bet there's blood related people on both sides.

 

[The Duke]

Agreed. Once the US and Israeli defenses are used up the older strike weapons that Iran is using first, Israel could be unmercifully pounded, and then Israel will have to decide whether to use its nukes to stop that.

. . . and if Israel dare do that, it will inevitably bring in Russia and China. I have heard that even Pakistan would get involved at that point, but I hear they are now tied down fighting the Taliban.

Interesting article from the Indian perspective;

Opinion | Gulf Confronts An Ugly Truth About Aligning With America​

That Iran is attacking bases and other sites in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia - even Oman - has caused disillusionment in these countries, which thought that they were protected by the US. They are now learning they're not.

https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/iran-israel-war-is-the-gulf-rethinking-its-ties-with-us-11158776

B-52s are flying in Iran. Iranian skies are owned.

 

[MisterBeale]

B-52s are flying in Iran. Iranian skies are owned.

How does the United States and Israel achieve victory?

 

[The Duke]

How does the United States and Israel achieve victory?

Destroying all the missiles, drones, and degrading the Basij and IRGC to where
they cannot terrorize the people anymore.
Don't ask me, I'm just some shnook.

 

[MisterBeale]

Destroying all the missiles, drones, and degrading the Basij and IRGC to where
they cannot terrorize the people anymore.
Don't ask me, I'm just some shnook.

And how do the Iranians win this?

 

[The Duke]

And how do the Iranians win this?

Well they're going to need to be armed pretty quick I would think.
And they rule their own country. Form their own government. They have a Constitution.
The mullahs just don't follow it. Iranians are different, they're all very connected to one another, more moreso than Americans are.

 

[ShahdagMountains]

The Iranians launched THOUSANDS of drones. Eventually the defenses run out of munitions, and have to be replenished.

That's why being limited to a six shot revolver really sucks when you have ten dudes attacking you.

The drones were only successful in areas where Iron Dome or Patriots, or whatever air defense system involved, wasn't.

Only the Iranian hypersonic missiles can avoid them. And they don't have a lot of them.

Hell, you can shoot down most of those Iranian drones with rifles that have good optics, and specialized ammo.

This came in from one of my feeds:

The Gulf states have been depleting interceptors at a rate that, if sustained, endangers their defensive position. If Iran’s missile pace is slowing daily, the resupply deadline for defenders shifts from an imminent crisis to a manageable issue rather than an immediate panic.

This is the phase change I was seeking. If the trend continues, it indicates the coalition is not merely intercepting but actively weakening the source of the fire. The Gulf states do not require perfection; they need time. Each day the launch rate decreases means another day those air defence magazines are not being depleted at the “day one” pace.

The complicating factor remains drones. The figures emerging from the Gulf highlight drone pressure. The UAE has published cumulative data since the start of Iran’s retaliation: 174 ballistic missiles detected, 161 intercepted, plus 689 drones tracked with 645 intercepted (drones that breach still pose risks of killing people and damaging vital infrastructure). The Washington Post corroborates with similarly high UAV totals and reports a significant number getting through. JINSA’s update further states that drones are responsible for most of Iran’s successful strikes in the Gulf, noting that Iran appears to be probing for gaps by shifting focus between Gulf targets.

The missile launch curve bending is a significant relief, but the drone layer represents the ongoing conflict within the larger war. Stopping drones will be essential because this is exactly how Iran can continue exerting pressure even when the high-tempo ballistic campaign is no longer feasible.

More where that came from; if you’re interested.

Lion's Roar, Day Four update

Good news on missile launch rates, and progress towards regime change

mrandrewfox.substack.com

 

[MisterBeale]

Well they're going to need to be armed pretty quick I would think.
And they rule their own country. Form their own government. They have a Constitution.
The mullahs just don't follow it. Iranians are different, they're all very connected to one another, more moreso than Americans are.

So the USA and Israel have to destroy their all offensive capabilities, their ability to fund and field proxies, and limit their ability to reconstitute all of that. . .




. . . and Iran wins by doing what the Taliban did, just surviving? And we are going to do all that w/o putting boots on the ground?

I don't think we are going to win TBH.