So you think oil and gas are up because of those evil speculators?

[Mr. H.]

Oil is going up for three reasons.

1. Supply/demand imbalances
2. Weak dollar
3. Speculation

Importance is from top to bottom. Supply/demand is most important. Speculation is least important.

Could you offer up some conjecture as to why they will fall (not when- because they eventually will).

 

[Toro]

Oil is going up for three reasons.

1. Supply/demand imbalances
2. Weak dollar
3. Speculation

Importance is from top to bottom. Supply/demand is most important. Speculation is least important.

Could you offer up some conjecture as to why they will fall (not when- because they eventually will).

Actually I will qualify. Oil is high in part due to a political risk premium because of instability in the ME. Oil rose ~$10 in two days when war started in Libya, and continues to hit new highs. If peace were to suddenly break out and all the protesters went home, oil would fall $15-$20.

 

[Toro]

Oil is going up for three reasons.

1. Supply/demand imbalances
2. Weak dollar
3. Speculation

Importance is from top to bottom. Supply/demand is most important. Speculation is least important.

The demand is not up, on the first link I post it showed that if the dollar wasn't so weak oil would not be at it current 113.00 a barrel. When oil hit 140.00 dollars a barrel in 2008 gas prices were at 4.00 pre gallon were at 4.00 a gallon now and now where near 140.00 a barrel price range.

I mean structurally. Increased demand from the emerging markets has pushed oil prices structurally higher. Without China, oil would be $40, maybe.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Oil is going up for three reasons.

1. Supply/demand imbalances
2. Weak dollar
3. Speculation

Importance is from top to bottom. Supply/demand is most important. Speculation is least important.

Could you offer up some conjecture as to why they will fall (not when- because they eventually will).

Actually I will qualify. Oil is high in part due to a political risk premium because of instability in the ME. Oil rose ~$10 in two days when war started in Libya, and continues to hit new highs. If peace were to suddenly break out and all the protesters went home, oil would fall $15-$20.

One thing I mention later in this thread that has been over looked the last time gas nation wide hit 4.00 per gallon oil pre barrel hit 140.00 we arr at that nation wide 4.00 pre gallon but no where near the 140.00 a barrel mark Plus demand is not as high as it was when oil was at 140.00 a barrel and 4.00 gallon

 

[johnrocks]

Look at the price of oil in 08 and now
Weekly All Countries Spot Price FOB Weighted by Estimated Export Volume (Dollars per Barrel)

And the dollar index then and now
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H10/Summary/indexn96_b.txt

Do I really need to add more?



Well, I will add more, I think instability in the Middle East was happening in 08;wasn't that when Israel was really threatening to blow up Iran's nuclear plant ; and there is instability there now. If a bull goes into a China shop, let's just say, I'm placing my bets on the bull.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Oil is going up for three reasons.

1. Supply/demand imbalances
2. Weak dollar
3. Speculation

Importance is from top to bottom. Supply/demand is most important. Speculation is least important.

The demand is not up, on the first link I post it showed that if the dollar wasn't so weak oil would not be at it current 113.00 a barrel. When oil hit 140.00 dollars a barrel in 2008 gas prices were at 4.00 pre gallon were at 4.00 a gallon now and now where near 140.00 a barrel price range.

I mean structurally. Increased demand from the emerging markets has pushed oil prices structurally higher. Without China, oil would be $40, maybe.

Read at your leaisure I don't think demand is as high as you think it is. I'm going to be honest I don't understand most of this information but to my understanding demand is not as high as it was in 2008

Global product demand remains unchanged for 2010 and 2011, at 87.9 mb/d (+2.9 mb/d year-on-year) and 89.4 mb/d (+1.4 mb/d) respectively. Higher anticipated post-earthquake Japanese oil use for power generation and reconstruction offsets downward non-OECD adjustments. Preliminary January and February data suggest that high prices are already starting to dent demand growth.

International Energy Agency - Oil Market Report

 

[dilloduck]

the answer is provided from sources in this thread.

Whose pocket does the profit made by speculators come out of ?

speculating does not cause the dollar to be devalued, when the dollar is devalued it takes more to purchase a comodity like oil.

Do you have an answer ?

 

[sparky]

sure....

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Whose pocket does the profit made by speculators come out of ?

speculating does not cause the dollar to be devalued, when the dollar is devalued it takes more to purchase a comodity like oil.

Do you have an answer ?

It's a free market you choose to pay for a product. That evil word profit? do you work for free? or do you choose to defend obama for free?

 

[johnrocks]

Whose pocket does the profit made by speculators come out of ?

speculating does not cause the dollar to be devalued, when the dollar is devalued it takes more to purchase a comodity like oil.

Do you have an answer ?

Strenghtening the dollar would help; reduce the money supply in the economy, allow free markets to work and if that means drilling, building new nuclear plants,legalizing hemp, using more natural gas,etc then so be it . and get the hell out of the Middle East, they'll either sell that oil or turn back into a third world region and nothing much more than the world's largest cat litter box would be my answers.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Wal Mart CEO: "Shoppers Are Running Out Of Money"; There Is "No Sign Of A Recovery"

When a month ago the CEO of Wal Mart Americas told the world to "prepare for serious inflation", the Chairman laughed in his face, saying it was nothing a 15 minutes Treasury Call sell order can't fix (granted net of a few billions in commissions for JPM). 4 weeks later the Chairman is no longer laughing, having been forced to hike up his inflation expectations while trimming (not for the last time) his economic outlook. "U.S. consumers face "serious" inflation in the months ahead for clothing, food and other products, the head of Wal-Mart's U.S. operations warned Wednesday talking to USA Today.

Wal Mart CEO: "Shoppers Are Running Out Of Money"; There Is "No Sign Of A Recovery" | zero hedge

 

[Mr. H.]

Could you offer up some conjecture as to why they will fall (not when- because they eventually will).

Actually I will qualify. Oil is high in part due to a political risk premium because of instability in the ME. Oil rose ~$10 in two days when war started in Libya, and continues to hit new highs. If peace were to suddenly break out and all the protesters went home, oil would fall $15-$20.

One thing I mention later in this thread that has been over looked the last time gas nation wide hit 4.00 per gallon oil pre barrel hit 140.00 we arr at that nation wide 4.00 pre gallon but no where near the 140.00 a barrel mark Plus demand is not as high as it was when oil was at 140.00 a barrel and 4.00 gallon

Surprisingly, refiners are actually exporting about 20% of finished product.
There's a bigger demand overseas, and U.S. demand is waning and they expect an even bigger drop in domestic demand.

I'll try to find the link.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

He seems to understnad whats going on

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOqTdPrXveg&feature=feedu]YouTube - Walmart CEO- 'There is no sign of recovery'[/ame]

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Actually I will qualify. Oil is high in part due to a political risk premium because of instability in the ME. Oil rose ~$10 in two days when war started in Libya, and continues to hit new highs. If peace were to suddenly break out and all the protesters went home, oil would fall $15-$20.

One thing I mention later in this thread that has been over looked the last time gas nation wide hit 4.00 per gallon oil pre barrel hit 140.00 we arr at that nation wide 4.00 pre gallon but no where near the 140.00 a barrel mark Plus demand is not as high as it was when oil was at 140.00 a barrel and 4.00 gallon

Surprisingly, refiners are actually exporting about 20% of finished product.
There's a bigger demand overseas, and U.S. demand is waning and they expect an even bigger drop in domestic demand.

I'll try to find the link.

I just posted a link that said demand for 2010 and 2011 hasn't changed.

 

[Toro]

Could you offer up some conjecture as to why they will fall (not when- because they eventually will).

Actually I will qualify. Oil is high in part due to a political risk premium because of instability in the ME. Oil rose ~$10 in two days when war started in Libya, and continues to hit new highs. If peace were to suddenly break out and all the protesters went home, oil would fall $15-$20.

One thing I mention later in this thread that has been over looked the last time gas nation wide hit 4.00 per gallon oil pre barrel hit 140.00 we arr at that nation wide 4.00 pre gallon but no where near the 140.00 a barrel mark Plus demand is not as high as it was when oil was at 140.00 a barrel and 4.00 gallon

That's a function of refining spreads, I believe.

 

[johnrocks]

One thing I mention later in this thread that has been over looked the last time gas nation wide hit 4.00 per gallon oil pre barrel hit 140.00 we arr at that nation wide 4.00 pre gallon but no where near the 140.00 a barrel mark Plus demand is not as high as it was when oil was at 140.00 a barrel and 4.00 gallon

Surprisingly, refiners are actually exporting about 20% of finished product.
There's a bigger demand overseas, and U.S. demand is waning and they expect an even bigger drop in domestic demand.

I'll try to find the link.

I just posted a link that said demand for 2010 and 2011 hasn't changed.

There is actually a glut of oil on the world market according to "Futures and Commodity Market News"
Oil prices reach near record highs despite market glut


And there is more oil going into Cushing ,Ok. than they have the ability to send out.
News Headlines

 

[Mr. H.]

Actually I will qualify. Oil is high in part due to a political risk premium because of instability in the ME. Oil rose ~$10 in two days when war started in Libya, and continues to hit new highs. If peace were to suddenly break out and all the protesters went home, oil would fall $15-$20.

One thing I mention later in this thread that has been over looked the last time gas nation wide hit 4.00 per gallon oil pre barrel hit 140.00 we arr at that nation wide 4.00 pre gallon but no where near the 140.00 a barrel mark Plus demand is not as high as it was when oil was at 140.00 a barrel and 4.00 gallon

Surprisingly, refiners are actually exporting about 20% of finished product.
There's a bigger demand overseas, and U.S. demand is waning and they expect an even bigger drop in domestic demand.

I'll try to find the link.

Found:

Oil Companies Are Making More Money and Less Fuel

 

[Flopper]

Think again. Well I was looking at the price of silver ad gold I also notice oil and here's what I noticed.
112.85 a barrel


Change due to Weakening of USD
+0.12 +0.11%

Now here's the tell tell story
Change due to Normal Trading

-0.13 -0.12%

Meaning oil would not be at this price if we did not have a weaken dollar Not much sales for oil it seems. Now who's at fault for the weaken dollar? The FED maybe?





Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX

Oil prices are up throughout the world from Britain to China. Crude oil priced in US dollars have risen nearly 40% in the last year while the dollar has lost between 5 and 10% against most foreign currencies. So yes, the falling dollar adds to our cost, but it is not the primary cause of the price rise. Oil prices have been jumping because of concerns about supply disruptions in the Mideast, but it turns out there is a glut of oil supply. Prices are rising because speculators are buying up futures. Just as we have seen in the past, when speculators bid up the future prices, the market falls like rock within a year.

 

[TheGutterMaster]

Word is that whenever one oil company raises their prices, all of them raise their prices.

Since BP's main oil line is located in Libya, and there were supply disruptions because of the violence going on there, they jacked up their prices. But other companies jacked up their prices as well.

I actually highly doubt this has to do with Libya, i think it has more to do with how unregulated speculation is with oil.

And once oil prices go up, you start to see a trend where food and other commodities go uo as well. Lets hope that oil goes down at the end of May like economists are predicting. You cant really count on them though because they were wrong about the current gas prices.

 

[Intense]

Word is that whenever one oil company raises their prices, all of them raise their prices.

Since BP's main oil line is located in Libya, and there were supply disruptions because of the violence going on there, they jacked up their prices. But other companies jacked up their prices as well.

I actually highly doubt this has to do with Libya, i think it has more to do with how unregulated speculation is with oil.

And once oil prices go up, you start to see a trend where food and other commodities go uo as well. Lets hope that oil goes down at the end of May like economists are predicting. You cant really count on them though because they were wrong about the current gas prices.

It does boil down to instability in the Middle East. That, and the fact that drilling is so limited here. We need to invest in more Refineries too. There is really no way around it. Delay is hurtful. We need to be building more on Natural Gas too. I am really mixed with Nukes, considering Current Events, like 250 miles from major population centers seems too close, right now. Hydro-Electric??? Clean Water is going to be in short supply soon enough, Reservoirs are just so multi-use. For every reason to not build on that I can probably come up with 10 positive reasons. I sincerely believe that there are Powers that be, that are more into controlling us, than they are into serving the Public interest.