Should Western Ukraine become a NATO protectorate?

[ESay]

I

Idiot! That means nothing. You still want them to fight and refuse peace negotiations.

Idiot. By annexing four Ukrainian oblasts and claiming that 'the question is closed', your leader made relevance of all negotiations as nonexistent.

 

[para bellum]

Yes, I have heard that reasoning. I have my own arguments.

About the industrial heartland. If by this you mean the Donbas region with its steel plants and coal mines, then yes it will be lost. But the industry there was mainly built in the 1920-30s, and for the last 30 years was owned by a group of oligarchs who were getting their fortune offering almost nothing in return in the terms of modernisation of the industry. Except of that, a significant part of Donetsk oblast was already excluded from Ukrainian economic life and Ukraine managed to cope with that. Overall, I think that Ukraine should follow Poland's example where a major shift happened from a Soviet era industrial giants to modern production.

The resources are what matters in the long term. Not just the natural resources- the energy to exploit them cost effectively, the river and rail systems to move products cheaply to the ports and markets. The modernization and changing the structure would be needed, I assume that is a given.

About sea ports. Not one sea port. Odesa oblast has three main seaports that are the biggest in Ukraine in the terms of capacity - the ports of Odesa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhniy. Maybe after some time the port of Mykolaiv will be reopened. Some practical strategy should be set to defend these ports and routes from Russian attacks and provocations.

Yes, I know Odesa is not the only port facility, but geographically it's still the same thing, no matter how far apart you space the cranes.

They would all share the same threat.

About tiredness of supporting Ukraine. I am afraid this tiredness is already growing even with Ukrainian successes on the frontline. What will be if Ukraine suffers a major defeat? This war affects not only Ukraine. Global energy supplies, military stockpiles, global food security. We should allow the system to balance itself.

I guess I would say that a stable balance requires rational actors, and it is the irrational actor that has created the imbalance. Returning to a stable balance requires removing the cause.

I don't see support for Ukraine fading. How long did it take for Elon Musk to reverse course? That was due to the pressure brought by millions of people who stand with Ukraine.

Ukraine needed to show Western leaders that it was not a lost cause. Ukraine did that, in a spectacular fashion.

That's not why Ukraine has broad popular support. The broad popular support is a response to the heart and fighting spirit of the Ukrainian people.

 

[gipper]

Idiot. By annexing four Ukrainian oblasts and claiming that 'the question is closed', your leader made relevance of all negotiations as nonexistent.

As I thought.

 

[Richard-H]

Why did Ukraine fail to implement the Minsk agreements? Poroshenko has been quoted as saying they were never intended to accomplish anything except buy time for Ukraine and NATO to retake control of Donbass and Crimea; thereby, furthering the US goal of regime change in Moscow.

It was Russia that backed out of the Minsk Agreements:

Minsk agreements - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Richard-H]

Scott Ritter has spoken about a similar strategy.

In his version thousands of Polish troops don Ukrainian uniforms and enter the conflict. Once a stalemate ensues, the Poles change back into their true colors and occupy western Ukraine.

How would you expect Putin to react in such a situation?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/05/russia-nuclear-weapons-military-arsenal/

Scott Ritter's plan has nothing to do with my suggestion. If NATO declared Western Ukraine as it's protectorate, Russia could do nothing about it.

Even as is, NATO has made it clear that if Russia moves it's tactical nukes towards Ukraine, NATO will destroy them before they're launched - and Russia knows NATO has the ability.

Russians will eventually realize that their invasion of Ukraine was one of the stupidest military decisions ever made. There is no way it could ever have gone well for Russia.

Putin, like Hitler, may be a political genius, but he's an idiot when it comes to military strategy and tactics.

 

[ESay]

The resources are what matters in the long term. Not just the natural resources- the energy to exploit them cost effectively, the river and rail systems to move products cheaply to the ports and markets. The modernization and changing the structure would be needed, I assume that is a given.

Yes, I know Odesa is not the only port facility, but geographically it's still the same thing, no matter how far apart you space the cranes.

They would all share the same threat.

I guess I would say that a stable balance requires rational actors, and it is the irrational actor that has created the imbalance. Returning to a stable balance requires removing the cause.

I don't see support for Ukraine fading. How long did it take for Elon Musk to reverse course? That was due to the pressure brought by millions of people who stand with Ukraine.

Ukraine needed to show Western leaders that it was not a lost cause. Ukraine did that, in a spectacular fashion.

That's not why Ukraine has broad popular support. The broad popular support is a response to the heart and fighting spirit of the Ukrainian people.

1. Some main infrastructure will be lost in this case. Zaporizhzhia NPP is the main example. Also, shipping goods along the Dnieper to the sea will be impossible. But then again, the active war also destroys infrastructure.

2. The ports will be under threat. But Ukraine should establish such defence structure that would guarantee retaliation strikes against Russian targets in say Crimea.

3. The Russians are idiots, but even they will learn from their mistakes. They enlarge the density of their troops in the occupied areas, they try to reorganise their military industry, they get support from friendly regimes, they target civil infrastructure, and so on. Their numbers are bigger.

Defeating Russia in your scenario may require a whole new level of NATO involvement in this war. I doubt many people are ready for that.

4. You can exclude irrational actors to balance the system. In the times of the Cold War at least two systems existed almost parallel.

 

[para bellum]

Defeating Russia in your scenario may require a whole new level of NATO involvement in this war. I doubt many people are ready for that.

Like I said, if Ukraine chooses to freeze the war at the current lines, the West washes their hands and says "mission accomplished".

The end. There is nothing after that. Putin wins. Ukraine would be seen as a liability, no point confronting Russia if Ukraine's heart isn't in it.

If that's what the Ukrainian people want, that's what they should do. Zelensky won't get any pushback from the west. Ukraine can cut her deal with Putin, no need for our further involvement.

We didn't step up until Ukrainians showed they were serious about fighting for their country. If you decide the fight is no longer worth the cost, well- it's not worth it to us either.

 

[Richard-H]

Like I said, if Ukraine chooses to freeze the war at the current lines, the West washes their hands and says "mission accomplished".

The end. There is nothing after that. Putin wins. Ukraine would be seen as a liability, no point confronting Russia if Ukraine's heart isn't in it.

If that's what the Ukrainian people want, that's what they should do. Zelensky won't get any pushback from the west. Ukraine can cut her deal with Putin, no need for our further involvement.

We didn't step up until Ukrainians showed they were serious about fighting for their country. If you decide the fight is no longer worth the cost, well- it's not worth it to us either.

Looks like that whole new level is on the way...the 101st is not a defensive unit.

The U.S. Army's 101st Airborne is practicing for war with Russia just miles from Ukraine's border

U.S. troops in Romania are extremely close to Putin's war, conducting exercises with NATO allies that "replicate exactly what's going on" over the border.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[para bellum]

Looks like that whole new level is on the way...the 101st is not a defensive unit.

Not an increase in US presence- they replaced the 82nd who were there back in June. One BCT plus an HQ (not all in Romania). IOW, garden variety "messaging" type exercise...

 

[alexa]

Looks like that whole new level is on the way...the 101st is not a defensive unit.

The U.S. Army's 101st Airborne is practicing for war with Russia just miles from Ukraine's border

U.S. troops in Romania are extremely close to Putin's war, conducting exercises with NATO allies that "replicate exactly what's going on" over the border.

www.cbsnews.com

Jesus you want to kill us all. What is the matter with you. Your belief about the reason for the war is different to the information I have been given. You want to destroy Russia. Russia has the most nuclear weapons in the world but from what we have seen has not been looking after its conventional ones, presumably not expecting to go to war. You want to escalate by bringing in American Troops. You are fighting against a people who are determined you will not win. You bring in the US army and we are all gone.

 

[alexa]

Idiot. By annexing four Ukrainian oblasts and claiming that 'the question is closed', your leader made relevance of all negotiations as nonexistent.

You have to have negotiations, or this just escalates and escalates until it is nuclear war. It is very common to put out a difficult position at first but that is only for negotiation.

 

[georgephillip]

It was Russia that backed out of the Minsk Agreements:

Minsk agreements - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Who do you blame for that, Zelensky, Putin, or Biden?
Your link:

"In October 2021, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that 'if the Americans are genuinely prepared to support the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, this issue can be settled very quickly.'[94]"

Here's a hint: which country is meddling in the internal affairs of two sovereign states on the opposite side of the planet?

 

[georgephillip]

Scott Ritter's plan has nothing to do with my suggestion. If NATO declared Western Ukraine as it's protectorate, Russia could do nothing about it.

By what authority would a political and military alliance redraw the borders of a sovereign state?

 

[georgephillip]

Even as is, NATO has made it clear that if Russia moves it's tactical nukes towards Ukraine, NATO will destroy them before they're launched - and Russia knows NATO has the ability.

In which case Russia would retaliate with its strategic arsenal; is that what you want?

 

[para bellum]

Defeating Russia in your scenario may require a whole new level of NATO involvement in this war. I doubt many people are ready for that.

Just to be clear. No one expects Ukraine to be on a continuous offensive. When you say 'take the Russians to the river bank and switch to defense', that's where you lose me.

Operational pauses are needed, and after clearing Kherson the dnipro is a good place to pause and regenerate for the winter, and it would mean Ukraine won all 3 major battles of the war in 2022.

So if you mean switching to a defensive posture to prepare for the spring offensive, that doesn't cost Ukraine any support. But if you mean Ukraine surrenders the territory under occupation for a peace deal with Putin, that's what ends the NATO involvement.

They are making plans now that go out ten years- re-tooling Ukraine's military manufacturing to NATO standards and rebuilding Ukraine's organic weapons industries. They've been tight-lipped about the meeting in Brussels, but Reznikov was obviously very happy when he came out of there.

 

[georgephillip]

Looks like that whole new level is on the way...the 101st is not a defensive unit.

The U.S. Army's 101st Airborne is practicing for war with Russia just miles from Ukraine's border

U.S. troops in Romania are extremely close to Putin's war, conducting exercises with NATO allies that "replicate exactly what's going on" over the border.

www.cbsnews.com

Your link:

"CBS News joined the division's Deputy Commander, Brigadier General John Lubas, and Colonel Edwin Matthaidess, Commander of the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, on a Black Hawk helicopter for the hour-long ride to the very edge of NATO territory — only around three miles from Romania's border with Ukraine."

How would you respond if Russian military officers were landing three miles from the Texan border with Mexico?

 

[toomuchtime_]

Your link:

"CBS News joined the division's Deputy Commander, Brigadier General John Lubas, and Colonel Edwin Matthaidess, Commander of the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, on a Black Hawk helicopter for the hour-long ride to the very edge of NATO territory — only around three miles from Romania's border with Ukraine."

How would you respond if Russian military officers were landing three miles from the Texan border with Mexico?

The question should be what would the Mexicans do? Russia is not a super power and cannot project power across the ocean in a meaningful way. The Mexicans would easily wipe out any Russian invasion.

 

[AZrailwhale]

Looks like that whole new level is on the way...the 101st is not a defensive unit.

The U.S. Army's 101st Airborne is practicing for war with Russia just miles from Ukraine's border

U.S. troops in Romania are extremely close to Putin's war, conducting exercises with NATO allies that "replicate exactly what's going on" over the border.

www.cbsnews.com

The 101st isn’t an Airborne unit and hadn’t been since Vietnam. It a Airmobile Division. No one in the division is actively jump qualified. It’s a helicopter Bourne division.

 

[georgephillip]

The question should be what would the Mexicans do? Russia is not a super power and cannot project power across the ocean in a meaningful way. The Mexicans would easily wipe out any Russian invasion.

Not if Mexicans were the victims of a criminal coup placing Kremlin puppets in power in Mexico City just as the US sponsored and condoned the 2014 far-right plot in Kiev implemented primarily by neo-Nazi shock troops like Right Sector and Svoboda Party.

That installation of a puppet regime on Russian borders has led directly to the ongoing civil war in eastern Ukraine, responsible for claiming the lives of tens of thousands and displacing millions of Ukrainians not to mention increasing the net worth of American$ who profit from U$ terrori$m.

The Grand Chessboard - Wikipedia

Do you believe in American Primacy?
If so, how many more innocent human beings are you willing to maim, murder, and displace to achieve it?

 

[toomuchtime_]

Not if Mexicans were the victims of a criminal coup placing Kremlin puppets in power in Mexico City just as the US sponsored and condoned the 2014 far-right plot in Kiev implemented primarily by neo-Nazi shock troops like Right Sector and Svoboda Party.

That installation of a puppet regime on Russian borders has led directly to the ongoing civil war in eastern Ukraine, responsible for claiming the lives of tens of thousands and displacing millions of Ukrainians not to mention increasing the net worth of American$ who profit from U$ terrori$m.

The Grand Chessboard - Wikipedia

Do you believe in American Primacy?
If so, how many more innocent human beings are you willing to maim, murder, and displace to achieve it?

Again, you make the mistake of thinking Russia is a superpower on a par with the US; it is not. Russia is just a central Asian petrostate with nukes and no one in Mexico or elsewhere, not even criminals, would tolerate the Russian boot on their throats.