Senator Begich Needs To Close A Daunting(?) 8000 Vote Gap From 50,000 Yet To Be Counted! (Again?)

[mascale]

"Political Opinion Poll" is by now at least a four letter word, if not something far more French(?). Early and Absentee votes in most states tend to favor GOP. Alaska is even different at that part of the vote.

In 2008, there became a Senator Begich in Alaska, after the GOP had won, from the count of the later counted ballots! Now there are 50,000 of these things, arriving until the middle of the month. And Alaska is way more Independent, now, than it used to be! The local people don't seem to have much memory of that, now saying that all the numbers are "daunting" for Begich, now an incumbent, too boot!

Election returns favor Dan Sullivan over Mark Begich in Alaska U.S. Senate race Alaska Dispatch

Then there is Landrieu, and that runoff history. There are two Red State Democrats, who know about these things already!

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(26 seats in 2016, Now A Bigger Turnout Is Likely to be seen! 26 seats now GOP: No Chance! No Chance! No Chance! No Chance!)

 

[Statistikhengst]

Mathematically possible to overcome the deficit.

Statistically unlikely.

The last time, his deficit was about 3,300 votes and after that absentees were counted, he was a nose in front of Young.

Big difference between 3,300 in deficit and 8,000 in deficit.

In order to gain 8,000 votes out of the 50,000, he would need to win them with a +16% margin.

50,000 * 0.16 = 8,000

He would need to win them, 58 to 42 against Sullivan.

 

[mascale]

The statistics are not improbable, since the Governor so-far-elect is not a Republican, but is an Independent. So far the advantage is about 3,000 votes. So Democratic votes, plus Independent votes, are likely in play. No one seems to think that the Governor's race is over, at all. Modern Alaska may be said trending Pacific Rim.

Election results for Alaska governor won t be decided for days Alaska Dispatch

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Moose even feel safer, soon like pigs in Iowa!)

 

[Zander]

I think the OP is butthurt and delusional......Begich is toast and so is Landrieu.....

There will be at least 54 Republican Senators for the next 2 years.

But you've got Hillary!! She's a lock!!

 

[mascale]

If the White House listened, then the 67% of the electorate who did not vote will be holding more sway, in the next two years, less the several weeks until the elections are over.

In Alaska, anyone has to notice that the politics have changed since Senator Beich first got elected. The state seems ready to actually move forward, away from the bridges built to nowhere. The 2014 nightmare more likely reduces to some nature of national selfie, going forward. Democrats that maybe did not think they owed their first elections to the Obama-Bush landslide, appear to be no longer in the Senate.

Democrats are likely more accustomed to how the problem plays out.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(White Eyes with two faces not like Rush Mountain White Eyes, except for Lincoln Tea Party fanatic, even then. White Eyes then set to killing off their own, in many numbers. White Eyes teach this wonderful, in world!)

 

[Statistikhengst]

...In Alaska, anyone has to notice that the politics have changed since Senator Beich first got elected. The state seems ready to actually move forward, away from the bridges built to nowhere. The 2014 nightmare more likely reduces to some nature of national selfie, going forward. Democrats that maybe did not think they owed their first elections to the Obama-Bush landslide, appear to be no longer in the Senate.

Democrats are likely more accustomed to how the problem plays out.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(White Eyes with two faces not like Rush Mountain White Eyes, except for Lincoln Tea Party fanatic, even then. White Eyes then set to killing off their own, in many numbers. White Eyes teach this wonderful, in world!)

Statistically, the state is not as red as it was, for sure.

Presidential:

2000: Bush 43 (R) wins Alaska by +30.95 (+31)
2004: Bush 43 (R) wins Alaska by +25.55 (+25.6) - shift of 5.4 to the Democratic Party
2008: McCain (R) wins Alaska by +21.54 (+21.5) - shift of 4.1 to the Democratic Party
2012: Romney (R) wins Alaska by +13.99 (+14) - shift of 7.5 to the Democratic Party

So, over twelve years, at the national level, the GOP margin in Alaska has shrunk from +31 to +14. The margin, though still a landslide margin similar to Obama's wins in Oregon and Washington State, is less than half of what it once was. Romney's +14 margin in Alaska is the leanest margin for a Republican in a two-way race in this state since 1968, where Humprey really surprised and came dangerously close to Nixon. And those four presidential cycles all overlap the last five Senatorial cycles, including this one, where interesting things have happened since 2002.

A little known piece of history about both Alaska and Hawaii: there were intense fights on the floor of the US Senate about both of these states, because the Democrats at that time were just sure that Hawaii was going to be a "Republican" state and the Republicans of that day were just sure that Alaska was going to be a "Democratic" state, exactly the opposite of how things turned out, according to our current labels for "Democrat" and "Republican". But in the 50's, much of the Democratic Party was far more Conservative than many elements in the Republican party and in the 50's, much of the Republican Party was far more liberal than many elements in the Democratic Party. This is why BOTH states were admitted to the Union in the same year, with Alaska being admitted on January 3, 1959, the very day that the newly elected 86th congress, with a Democratic majority in the Senate -after Eisenhower's party just lost 13 seats in the 1958 mid-terms, the DEMS also added both Alaska seats and the DEMS moved to a filibuster proof majority of 64-34, which then grew to 65-35 once Hawaii's two Senators were seated - and Hawaii joined the Union on August 21, 1959, therefore giving both states enough time to organize themselves for the next presidential election. In this was, a sort of balance of power was kept in the EC, at least in the minds of the politicians of that day, very similar to the admission of Michigan and Arkansas to the Union in 1836-1837.

Senatorial:

1990: Ted Stevens (R) wins a seat by +34.04 (+34) - a blowout
1992: Frank Murkowski (R) wins his first Senatorial by +14.64 (+15.6)
1996: Ted Stevens (R) wins re-election by +64.19 (+64.2) - absolute blowout
1998: Frank Murkowski (R) wins a Seat by +54.77 (+55.8) - absolute blowout
2002: Ted Stevens (R) wins re-election by +67.66 (+67.7) - absolute blowout
2004: Lisa Murkowski (R) wins re-election by only +3.03% (+3) against Tony Knowles
2008: Mark Begich (D) unseats Ted Stevens, by only +1.34% (+1.3)
2010: Lisa Murkowsi, as a "write-in", wins re-election, by +4.01 (+4)
2014: Right now,it sure looks as if Sullivan (R) has won and the current statistic is +3.60 (+3.6)

So, after 2002, Alaska went from being an unbreakable +30 points (or way more) solid RED state at the Senatorial level, to a low single-digit win state, now for four cycles in a row. It's also been a minority win state for those four cycles, partly due to Alaska's long tradition of a pretty steep 3rd and 4th party vote.


The Gubernatorial-scene in Alaska has been much more mixed all along:


1998: Tony Knowles (D), wins by 33.01% (+33). Barred from seeking a third term, he ran for Senate against Lisa Murkowski in 2004 and narrowly lost.
2002: Frank Murkowski (who was a sitting Senator) wins by +15.15% (+15.2)
2006: Sarah Palin (R) wins by +7.36% (+7.3)
2010: Sean Parnell, who was Sarah Palin's Lt. Governor and who assumed office after she resigned, wins by +21.39% (+21.4)
2014: Right now, it looks like Independent/Unity Ticket Bill Walker by +1.41 (+1.4)

No matter how you look at it, at all three major levels, two of which are federal, Alaska has gone from being a rock-solid double digit win state pre-Millenium to a single digit-state or sharply reduced double-digit state (presidential cycles) in the new Millenium.

Something is going on with the Alaskan electorate and the historical stats from 12 years back that statement up.

And in one point, I think that former Gov. Sarah Palin was very right: Alaska had indeed by ruled by a few select dynasties for a pretty long time, above all else, the Youngs and the Murkowskis and the Begiches and the Knowles.

mascale