Or Colorado, which is very close, or Wisconsin or New Hampshire which would throw the election into the House of Representatives with a Republican majority.
Both belong to Ms. Clinton.
Almost nothing belongs to Clinton. If the debates are a draw, Trump will win with at least 274 electoral votes. If he wins he debates, he will win with over 300 votes. For Hillary to win the election, she has to soundly defeat Trump in the debates, and she has never soundly defeated anyone in debates.
Nice dissertation. Now, only if it were remotely true. You’re incredibly stupid and not just about politics.
Here are the facts. There may be 3-5% of voters who are truly undecided; totally up for grabs. The pollsters will tell you it is between 10 and 15% but that is a safe number that has been disproven over the last 4 contests. The 10% difference is those who lean one way or the other. So just consider them a push; 5% to each side. With 3-5% as the real target audience, there is little chance you’re going to sweep them as well. If you’re a truly undecided, you’re going to hear stuff you like for 90 minutes and stuff you don’t like for 90 minutes. Won’t matter. Vice-versa; if you’re leaning one way or the other, you’re not likely to be turned around unless there is some theatrics which there won’t be.
Your mind is made up by seeing saturation commercials that get more and more poignant up to election day.
Here is the kicker. The 3-5% are not all in battleground states. So your audience is likely somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-30 thousand people in Hamilton County, OH; 5,000 voters in Osceola County, about that many in neighboring Seminole-Orange County, and the largest prize of all for Clinton, Clark County and the burbs of Las Vegas.