Peter Schiff Was Right 2006 - 2007

[Isolde]

Obama would be wise to seek this gentleman for an advisory position. He pretty much predicted the current situation we are in - two years ago.

Listen to the way the others laugh at his predictions.

[youtube]2I0QN-FYkpw[/youtube]

 

[Kevin_Kennedy]

His book, Crash Proof, is very good as well. I haven't read his new one, but I intend to. More people need to listen to Peter Schiff, Ron Paul, and other Austrian economists.

 

[Kevin_Kennedy]

Also, Art Laffer never paid Schiff the penny he owed him.

[youtube]z3WjgKUf-kA[/youtube]

 

[gonegolfin]

Obama would be wise to seek this gentleman for an advisory position. He pretty much predicted the current situation we are in - two years ago.

Listen to the way the others laugh at his predictions.

[youtube]2I0QN-FYkpw[/youtube]

Schiff has been right about a lot of things, most notably the prediction of this financial crisis (and he certainly was not alone) and the collapse of the US markets. But he has failed to correctly diagnose its impact on foreign markets. He also mis-diagnosed the actions of the Fed over the last 18-months (approximately the beginning of the credit crisis) running up until September of this year (when the Fed finally did begin a campaign of inflation, thus far to little avail). His investment advice for this crisis has been off the mark. He vastly underestimated the banking and bubble problems in Europe, Australia, and Asia, as an example. Schiff and his brokers were recommending Icelandic bonds about six months ago as one of their recommended fixed income investments. Oops. Australian debt as well, which has tanked. FAX is also a favorite of his, which has been creamed.

Brian

 

[Paulie]

Schiff has been right about a lot of things, most notably the prediction of this financial crisis (and he certainly was not alone) and the collapse of the US markets. But he has failed to correctly diagnose its impact on foreign markets. He also mis-diagnosed the actions of the Fed over the last 18-months (approximately the beginning of the credit crisis) running up until September of this year (when the Fed finally did begin a campaign of inflation, thus far to little avail). His investment advice for this crisis has been off the mark. He vastly underestimated the banking and bubble problems in Europe, Australia, and Asia, as an example. Schiff and his brokers were recommending Icelandic bonds about six months ago as one of their recommended fixed income investments. Oops. Australian debt as well, which has tanked. FAX is also a favorite of his, which has been creamed.

Brian

Would it be fair to assume that absent the atrocious intervention of governments and central banks throughout the world, the market would have normally responded in such a way that his advice would have been proper?

Perhaps he didn't foresee this much intervention and manipulation.

Your thoughts?

 

[gonegolfin]

Would it be fair to assume that absent the atrocious intervention of governments and central banks throughout the world, the market would have normally responded in such a way that his advice would have been proper?

Perhaps he didn't foresee this much intervention and manipulation.

Your thoughts?

Not at all. The seeds were sown in these countries long before the government and central bank interventions, as they were the US. The interventions will ultimately make the situation worse. But there was a lot of pain coming regardless. European banks, for example, were more leveraged than those in the US. He should have seen Iceland coming since they had some of the same problems he was identifying in the US, just on a much more concentrated scale. How Schiff did not see the Australian housing bubble, I will not know. Needham has been writing about it for some time.

Brian

 

[Paulie]

Not at all. The seeds were sown in these countries long before the government and central bank interventions, as they were the US. The interventions will ultimately make the situation worse. But there was a lot of pain coming regardless. European banks, for example, were more leveraged than those in the US. He should have seen Iceland coming since they had some of the same problems he was identifying in the US, just on a much more concentrated scale. How Schiff did not see the Australian housing bubble, I will not know. Needham has been writing about it for some time.

Brian

Do you know if he's related to Jacob?

 

[Diuretic]

Schiff has been right about a lot of things, most notably the prediction of this financial crisis (and he certainly was not alone) and the collapse of the US markets. But he has failed to correctly diagnose its impact on foreign markets. He also mis-diagnosed the actions of the Fed over the last 18-months (approximately the beginning of the credit crisis) running up until September of this year (when the Fed finally did begin a campaign of inflation, thus far to little avail). His investment advice for this crisis has been off the mark. He vastly underestimated the banking and bubble problems in Europe, Australia, and Asia, as an example. Schiff and his brokers were recommending Icelandic bonds about six months ago as one of their recommended fixed income investments. Oops. Australian debt as well, which has tanked. FAX is also a favorite of his, which has been creamed.

Brian

I need a heads up on the problems in Australia, far as I know there's been no bubble, primarily because we're very well regulated. But I do know we're relying on China to keep us out of the crap.

 

[Diuretic]

Not at all. The seeds were sown in these countries long before the government and central bank interventions, as they were the US. The interventions will ultimately make the situation worse. But there was a lot of pain coming regardless. European banks, for example, were more leveraged than those in the US. He should have seen Iceland coming since they had some of the same problems he was identifying in the US, just on a much more concentrated scale. How Schiff did not see the Australian housing bubble, I will not know. Needham has been writing about it for some time.

Brian

Again, the Australian housing bubble?

 

[Kevin_Kennedy]

In the simplest of terms, bubbles form from inflation. So the fact that you're "well regulated" probably led to your housing bubble.

 

[gonegolfin]

I need a heads up on the problems in Australia, far as I know there's been no bubble, primarily because we're very well regulated. But I do know we're relying on China to keep us out of the crap.

Australia has a serious housing bubble in the major cities. They also have significant problems with the big banks (somewhat due to home lending). John Needham (lives in Sydney) has been writing about this for some time and predicted the problems that were coming. The currency is also quite weak.

Just one example (there is plenty of material referencing the housing bubble in both Australia and New Zealand).
http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/danielcode/2008/0129.html

BTW, Needham is a sharp guy. I recommend you read him regularly. Interestingly, after some email swaps with him, I came to find out that he spent the early part of his working career in the New Orleans as well as Thibodaux areas, raising hell in some of the small towns (lots of time in bars). But I was just a small boy when he was in my hometown.

Brian

 

[gonegolfin]

Do you know if he's related to Jacob?

No idea.

Brian

 

[Diuretic]

In the simplest of terms, bubbles form from inflation. So the fact that you're "well regulated" probably led to your housing bubble.

Some cities definitely had over-inflated house prices. Sydney for example. Melbourne's getting up there too but it's probably less frenetic than Sydney's was at the height of the over-valuation. I don't know what caused the Sydney housing bubble, I suspect it was speculators. Over in Perth it's a different situation. Because of the mining boom in north-west Western Australia house prices in Perth are astronomical - or they were, for all I know they still might be. But I think they will come back down to earth shortly, particularly if China begins to reduce its needs for raw resources. That could definitely do it. Darwin is another one that has very high house prices and I think that's also due to the resources boom. The other major capital cities didn't experience the hugely inflated prices for housing.

 

[Diuretic]

Australia has a serious housing bubble in the major cities. They also have significant problems with the big banks (somewhat due to home lending). John Needham (lives in Sydney) has been writing about this for some time and predicted the problems that were coming. The currency is also quite weak.

Just one example (there is plenty of material referencing the housing bubble in both Australia and New Zealand).
"Uridashi! The Bubble Buster - Yarns from Down Under, Part 2 by John Needham, FSU Editorial 01/29/2008

BTW, Needham is a sharp guy. I recommend you read him regularly. Interestingly, after some email swaps with him, I came to find out that he spent the early part of his working career in the New Orleans as well as Thibodaux areas, raising hell in some of the small towns (lots of time in bars). But I was just a small boy when he was in my hometown.

Brian

Yes I've seen him on tv, very interesting man. Funnily enough some financial people here have given him a flogging, seems a bit unfair to me, he does seem to a tyro like me to know what he's on about.

I did mention the regional bubbles in the previous post. Sydney was the worst example, house prices there were ridiculous, they've slid way down now and I would think that's done some damage. The state economy is down the toilet as well - a mix of corrupt and inept state government and plain old economic problems (eg loss of many manufacturing industries and jobs which went offshore).

Thanks for the link. Bookmarked.

 

[editec]

All that phony PAPER wealth evaporated.

Why?

Because American workers kept losing purchasing power for nealy fourty years, that's why

why did they lose purchaing power?

Because their jobs went offshore (which pumped up the stock market, but didn't create any real wealth in THIS society).

So American workers, already committed to long term debts, and not REALLY enjoying any real savings from FREE TRADE, so that they could keep saving and keep spending wisely, borrowed and borrowed and borrowed just to continue paying their bills.

Well, folks, all those American consumers that some of us dismissed as irrelevant to our special upper middle class lives, are tapped out and guess what happened to YOUR ECONOMIES, right along with this nation's economy?

They are going into (and hasn't really hit bottom yet) the crapper, folks. You'll be enjoying a faultering economy, infrstruture falling down, schools getting worse, services no longer working, and a quality of life decline that none of us are really prepared for.

So let's remember now, shall we?

Who was wrong?

The free traders; the free market libertarians; the let them eat cake Republicans; the let's pretend we don't see what's happening Democrats;..

..all the people who imagined that we can deindutrialize this nation and yet continue to do well as a nation

All the god damned economist fools and economic traitors who told the people that we could abandon most of the American workers and still do well as a nation...

..all the lasssiz faire nitwits, all the pampered silver spoon sucking scions, in short anyone who forgot what a nation REALLY IS.

 

[Paulie]

All that phony PAPER wealth evaporated.

Why?

Because American workers kept losing purchasing power for nealy fourty years, that's why

why did they lose purchaing power?

Because their jobs went offshore (which pumped up the stock market, but didn't create any real wealth in THIS society).

So American workers, already committed to long term debts, and not REALLY enjoying any real savings from FREE TRADE, so that they could keep saving and keep spending wisely, borrowed and borrowed and borrowed just to continue paying their bills.

Well, folks, all those American consumers that some of us dismissed as irrelevant to our special upper middle class lives, are tapped out and guess what happened to YOUR ECONOMIES, right along with this nation's economy?

They are going into (and hasn't really hit bottom yet) the crapper, folks. You'll be enjoying a faultering economy, infrstruture falling down, schools getting worse, services no longer working, and a quality of life decline that none of us are really prepared for.

So let's remember now, shall we?

Who was wrong?

The free traders; the free market libertarians; the let them eat cake Republicans; the let's pretend we don't see what's happening Democrats;..

..all the people who imagined that we can deindutrialize this nation and yet continue to do well as a nation

All the god damned economist fools and economic traitors who told the people that we could abandon most of the American workers and still do well as a nation...

..all the lasssiz faire nitwits, all the pampered silver spoon sucking scions, in short anyone who forgot what a nation REALLY IS.

I really can't stand the fact that you defend the idea of borrowing to get out of debt. You know damn right well that there's almost 0 probability that borrowing will get you out of debt.

You make it sound like people who did that were in the right, and that they shouldn't be criticized for such a STUPID fucking decision.

Yeah yeah yeah, we all know that living wages are a relic in this country, and that jobs go offshore. But there is absolutely ZERO justification for indebting yourself to "get out of debt".

More debt can not possibly equal LESS debt in the end, unless somehow your WAGE went up, which you have already pointed out it wasn't.

Stop making excuses for stupid financial behavior. You are right about wages, and jobs, and a lot of what you talk about. But you are not right when you justify people's stupid decisions.

Before you EVER borrow money to pay bills, you cut your own budget. You sell what you can't afford anymore, you get rid of one of your cars and make do. You cancel the cable service, you budget your energy usage. You stop going out to dinner. You live off of PB sandwiches until things get better.

There are a lot of ways in which you can make do without having to borrow. If you are still forced to resort to borrowing, AFTER you have cut your budget down to its absolute bare minimum, then you are already in way over your head and probably too far to recover from. By borrowing, all you are doing is delaying your own inevitabilities, and fucking the rest of the country over like we are seeing now.


I notice that when you mention living wages diminishing, you only mention jobs moving offshore, and you don't mention the tens of millions of illegal immigrants saturating the workforce with cheap labor, which ultimately drives the cost of labor down.

 

[indago]

All that phony PAPER wealth evaporated.

Why?

Because American workers kept losing purchasing power for nealy fourty years, that's why

why did they lose purchaing power?

Because their jobs went offshore (which pumped up the stock market, but didn't create any real wealth in THIS society).

So American workers, already committed to long term debts, and not REALLY enjoying any real savings from FREE TRADE, so that they could keep saving and keep spending wisely, borrowed and borrowed and borrowed just to continue paying their bills.

Well, folks, all those American consumers that some of us dismissed as irrelevant to our special upper middle class lives, are tapped out and guess what happened to YOUR ECONOMIES, right along with this nation's economy?

They are going into (and hasn't really hit bottom yet) the crapper, folks. You'll be enjoying a faultering economy, infrstruture falling down, schools getting worse, services no longer working, and a quality of life decline that none of us are really prepared for.

So let's remember now, shall we?

Who was wrong?

The free traders; the free market libertarians; the let them eat cake Republicans; the let's pretend we don't see what's happening Democrats;..

..all the people who imagined that we can deindutrialize this nation and yet continue to do well as a nation

All the god damned economist fools and economic traitors who told the people that we could abandon most of the American workers and still do well as a nation...

..all the lasssiz faire nitwits, all the pampered silver spoon sucking scions, in short anyone who forgot what a nation REALLY IS.

And we were warned about what would happen over two hundred years ago...

 

[indago]

Obama would be wise to seek this gentleman for an advisory position. He pretty much predicted the current situation we are in - two years ago.

Listen to the way the others laugh at his predictions.

[youtube]2I0QN-FYkpw[/youtube]

http://www.usmessageboard.com/896528-post1.html

 

[editec]

I really can't stand the fact that you defend the idea of borrowing to get out of debt. You know damn right well that there's almost 0 probability that borrowing will get you out of debt. [/qyote]

Are you daft? Did I say that I'm defending borrowing to get out of debt?

Of course not.

You make it sound like people who did that were in the right, and that they shouldn't be criticized for such a STUPID fucking decision.

No I'm telling why citizens and our nation are in debt. I'm not excusing it, merely describing the problem.

It's structural, pal. American workers have been losing purchasing power, even while prices continued to rise for my entire adult lifetime.

The fact that you misconstrue that explaination of the problem into an excuse is your problem of reading comprehension, not my problem with saying what I mean.

 

[Paulie]

I really can't stand the fact that you defend the idea of borrowing to get out of debt. You know damn right well that there's almost 0 probability that borrowing will get you out of debt.

Are you daft? Did I say that I'm defending borrowing to get out of debt?

Of course not.



No I'm telling why citizens and our nation are in debt. I'm not excusing it, merely describing the problem.

It's structural, pal. American workers have been losing purchasing power, even while prices continued to rise for my entire adult lifetime.

The fact that you misconstrue that explaination of the problem into an excuse is your problem of reading comprehension, not my problem with saying what I mean.

Ed, you justify the fact that people borrowed to pay bills because they weren't making enough money.

You say it almost everyday around here; That they had "no other choice".

To say consumers had no other choice but to borrow, is insane.

It's funny that you say consumers had no other choice but to borrow their way out of debt, but you make no excuses for the government when THEY do it.

Rather than advocate a better collective understanding of finances and money, you advocate regulation to insulate consumers from HAVING to learn about money, finances, and proper budgeting.

Maybe you don't see it that way in your own convoluted view, but it shines through regardless.

Listen, the only reason I pick on you so much is because I respect you and your opinions. For the most part, I agree with a lot of what you say. You understand what the real problems are in this country, I just don't necessarily agree with your proposed solutions, so I challenge you. Don't take so much offense to it.

EDIT: Ed, are you a LaRouche follower/supporter?