Perhaps another GREAT JOB Trump - apparently on the phone with Putin, and an hour later they had a cease fire agreement.

[Zavulon]

Poland was NEVER allied with Nazi-Germany - they simply took advantage of Hitler annexing and occupying Sudetenland.

As if there was no Pilsudski-Hitler pact, signed back in 1934.

German–Polish declaration of non-aggression - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Which, among other things , allowed Germany to start playing hard with remilitarisation of Rhineland and their further expansion.

Since they had an open issue with Czechoslovakia dating back to the 20'ies.

And significant part of those issue was Czechoslovakia's good relationships with Russia and France. Like, say, vague menace of Russia-Czechoslovakia-France vs England-Germany-Polish alliances.

 

[Kruska]

As if there was no Pilsudski-Hitler pact, signed back in 1934.

The Pilsudski-Hitler pact was in regards to nonaggression on behalf of both sides, and to end a destructive customs war - and not some alliance

Since Hitler occupied Sudetenland (aggression in the eyes of Poland) - Poland as I had stated already, took it's chance to go for it's with Czechoslovakia disputed territory.

Also I don't have any reasons to believe that Hitler could be bothered about Poland's "supposed" actions in regards to him occupying the Rhineland in 1936.
He was "rightfully" far more apprehensive in regards to a possible French reaction. Which unfortunately never happened.

It was the Poles who got nervous in view of the Westwall/Siegfried-line being built from 1936 onward - that would/might enable Germany to attack Poland. - two years after the Pilsudski Pact was signed.

 

[Zavulon]

So Russia wins and Ukraine loses. What is to prevent Russia from taking the rest of Ukraine in a year or two?

Good (not provocative) behaviour of Ukraine and possible risk of guerilla war in Western regions of former Ukraine (like west of Zbruch river). I mean, Washington can more or less easily get rid of all Democrats in Texas, but "Respublicanisation" of California might easily become bloody mess with ugly things like filtration camps and what is worse - with unclear results.

Yes, highly likely, after defeat of Kievan regime, more than half of former Ukraine, especially cities like Odessa and Kharkov will ask to leave Ukraine and join Russia, and without neither money nor military force Kievan regime won't be able to keep them against will of their people.

 

[Zavulon]

The Pilsudski-Hitler pact was in regards to nonaggression on behalf of both sides, and to end a destructive customs war - and not some alliance

Same as Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, signed four years later. When you sign such documents you have mutual understanding in what cases there will be war, and what - won't. And, definitely there were secret appendix's to mark the sides red lines.

Since Hitler occupied Sudetenland (aggression in the eyes of Poland) - Poland as I had stated already, took it's chance to go for it's with Czechoslovakia disputed territory.

Of course it wasn't just spontaneous decision. It had to be coordinated with at least, Germany, Hungary, and, highly likely - with Great Britain and France. It wasn't coordinated with Russia, which, laterly caused Russian liberation of Polish-occupied land of Western Ukraine and Western Belarus.

Also I don't have any reasons to believe that Hitler could be bothered about Poland's "supposed" actions in regards to him occupying the Rhineland.

You don't have such reasons mostly because you don't posses information. But British government was pleased with this alliance exactly because it decreased possibility of war in the case of German remilitarisation of Rhineland.

He was "rightfully" far more apprehensive in regards to a possible French reaction. Which unfortunately never happened.

France wanted to react (at least it was what their diplomats said), but without British and Polish support (or, at least neutrality) it would be at least bloody mess, and quite possibly - defeat.
In 1936, war between Germany from one side and French-British-Polish alliance from another side might be a merely "police operation" (as it was supposed to be), but the war between France from one side and Germany-England-Poland alliance from the other side was, quite likely, might become a catastrophe.

It was the Poles, in view of the Siegfried-line being built - that would/might enable Germany to attack Poland.

Germany started to build Sigfrid line only in 1936. Exactly because Poland allowed them to do it.

 

[Zavulon]

NOt sure I would call that a win. They lost a lot of men and wrecked their military. FOr what? A couple of provinces?

For millions of Russian people, first of all, and further demilitarization of Eastern Europe.

Oh, the fact that they couldn't do it before when they were stronger and less wrecked.

Actually, right now Russia is stronger than back in 2022.

 

[Correll]

It was what they wanted from the beginning. Crimea is very important strategically and other provinces have valuable mineral wealth.

Everything I heard indicated that they wanted it ALL at the beginning. That they thought they had the power to steamroll over their smaller neighbor and demonstrate to the world the strenght of their mighty military.

The border provinces is a lot less than ALL.

And considering the terrible cost, I would hestitate to call that a "win".

If at first you don't succeed... Putin got a black eye that he needs to avenge to stay in power so he can rebuild. Without security guarantees any treaty would be a temporary cease fire.

When the war started Putin had a military that had generations of buildup in it's equipment and stocks and manpower. And he had a reputation built on generations of brutality and victories against russia's enemies.

ALL of that is gone now.

1. His manpower reserves are depleted. HIs men are green conscripts because the better trained ones are dead.

2. His equipment is depleted, vast amounts destroyed.

3. The reputation of the russian military is destroyed.


It will take longer than PUtin's remaining life to fix those problems and even when that is done, russia, (not putin) will just be back to SQUARE ONE, ie where they were before they lost this war.


Oh, and did I mention that they are in the midst of one of the worst population crashes in the world? So, yeah, the nation behind the military, will never be as strong as it was again, so, that's going to be a big problem for russia, moving forward.

Of course, if Ukraine can rebuild they may want to take back their lost territory.

If they are dumb enough to start a war with someone that is vastly bigger than them, I say we wash our hands of them.

 

[Correll]

Link? YOU need a link for that? then WTF are you doing on this thread??
Checkout any front-line map regarding March 2022 and now. YOURSELF

YOU talk - shit, I had asked you as to how many MBT's and AFV's/APC's - Ukraine has received.
I AM WAITING.

Only nonsensical to a dimwit like YOU - ask any of those Putin supporters or pro-Russian folks on USMB.

Ukraine is LOSING ground at this point. Very slowly, but still losing ground. To say that your war goal is to have them EJECT their much larger neighbor from the lands they have taken, is a statement of intent of a very long war.

At best.

Don't place words into peoples mouth, once you lose onto your silly arguments
It's not up to me - nor up to you - this ain't some game called RISK or one of your shooter games.

Therefore it's solely up to Russia - and Ukraine in regards to "factual" support by the EU and maybe by the USA.

Where did I refuse to answer? - you LIAR

Continue with your infantile, childish and totally unsubstantiated claims/arguments, and YOU can discuss with yourself or with those, who appreciate your kiddo and amateur style.

I EXPECT links from YOU - that would support your idiotic and unsubstantiated claims - and then I will present you with MY substantiated posts and links. That's how a decent discussion runs - I am NOT interested in your blah, blah. or personal assumptions. The way you talk/write and thus present yourself - you never served a single day in any Armed Forces.

Armchair general and PC player - that's all you are.

So now - I AM WAITING for substantiated posts of yours - or just get lost. Since YOU obviously got no clue as to what you babble about.

Never claimed to be an expert. I can see which side is bigger and which side is losing territory.

Somewhat well read layman, that is how I would describe myself in this context.

 

[Correll]

For millions of Russian people, first of all, and further demilitarization of Eastern Europe.

What are the populations of the LANDS you hold? Not all of ukraine, but the lands you hold.

Actually, right now Russia is stronger than back in 2022.

Yeah, I find that hard to credit. This does not seem to be that kind of war, where you learn stuff and build up experienced veterans with strong habits.

IF that was true, I would expect to see better gains and more panic (on the ukrainian side, obviously).

 

[alang1216]

Good (not provocative) behaviour of Ukraine and possible risk of guerilla war in Western regions of former Ukraine (like west of Zbruch river). I mean, Washington can more or less easily get rid of all Democrats in Texas, but "Respublicanisation" of California might easily become bloody mess with ugly things like filtration camps and what is worse - with unclear results.

Whatever you say about the Russian gov't, they are adept at pacifying populations. Chechnya was quite the learning experience.

Yes, highly likely, after defeat of Kievan regime, more than half of former Ukraine, especially cities like Odessa and Kharkov will ask to leave Ukraine and join Russia, and without neither money nor military force Kievan regime won't be able to keep them against will of their people.

So a new, pro-Russian gov't would be a prerequisite for peace? Elections would then follow the Russian democratic model where the incumbent gets 90% of the vote and the opposition gets jailed.

 

[hadit]

How is supporting a democracy against a dictator ‘being on the wrong side’?

A democracy does not halt elections and shut down political opposition.

 

[alang1216]

Everything I heard indicated that they wanted it ALL at the beginning. That they thought they had the power to steamroll over their smaller neighbor and demonstrate to the world the strenght of their mighty military.

The border provinces is a lot less than ALL.

And considering the terrible cost, I would hestitate to call that a "win".

Certainly a temporary set back.

When the war started Putin had a military that had generations of buildup in it's equipment and stocks and manpower. And he had a reputation built on generations of brutality and victories against russia's enemies.

ALL of that is gone now.

1. His manpower reserves are depleted. HIs men are green conscripts because the better trained ones are dead.

2. His equipment is depleted, vast amounts destroyed.

3. The reputation of the russian military is destroyed.

It will take longer than PUtin's remaining life to fix those problems and even when that is done, russia, (not putin) will just be back to SQUARE ONE, ie where they were before they lost this war.

Oh, and did I mention that they are in the midst of one of the worst population crashes in the world? So, yeah, the nation behind the military, will never be as strong as it was again, so, that's going to be a big problem for russia, moving forward.

True and they desperately need to rebuild their image with some victories. It is not like Putin cares about the effect on Russia or Ukraine.

If they are dumb enough to start a war with someone that is vastly bigger than them, I say we wash our hands of them.

If they can reclaim their lost territory, more power to them.

 

[konradv]

A democracy does not halt elections and shut down political opposition.

As compared to Russia where there’s only one real party?!

 

[hadit]

As compared to Russia where there’s only one real party?!

Just sayin', neither Ukraine nor Russia are great beacons of democracy.

 

[konradv]

Just sayin', neither Ukraine nor Russia are great beacons of democracy.

You’re knocking Ukraine, Ivan!

 

[hadit]

You knocking Ukraine, Ivan!

Hah, that's funny. Here's a hint for the terminally uninformed, the world isn't black/white. There are shades of gray.

 

[Kruska]

Ukraine is LOSING ground at this point. Very slowly, but still losing ground. To say that your war goal is to have them EJECT their much larger neighbor from the lands they have taken, is a statement of intent of a very long war.

At best.





Never claimed to be an expert. I can see which side is bigger and which side is losing territory.

Somewhat well read layman, that is how I would describe myself in this context.

You got no basis to set your "assumptions" onto - it's just your opinion

Ukraine is loosing ground simply to not having gotten the support that was "promised" to them - therefore the next couple of month will be decisive - till then anything on your behalf is just speculative lacking any factual knowledge in regards to the military layout of Ukraine and Russia.

 

[Kruska]

Same as Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, signed four years later. When you sign such documents you have mutual understanding in what cases there will be war, and what - won't. And, definitely there were secret appendix's to mark the sides red lines.


Of course it wasn't just spontaneous decision. It had to be coordinated with at least, Germany, Hungary, and, highly likely - with Great Britain and France. It wasn't coordinated with Russia, which, laterly caused Russian liberation of Polish-occupied land of Western Ukraine and Western Belarus.


You don't have such reasons mostly because you don't posses information. But British government was pleased with this alliance exactly because it decreased possibility of war in the case of German remilitarisation of Rhineland.


France wanted to react (at least it was what their diplomats said), but without British and Polish support (or, at least neutrality) it would be at least bloody mess, and quite possibly - defeat.
In 1936, war between Germany from one side and French-British-Polish alliance from another side might be a merely "police operation" (as it was supposed to be), but the war between France from one side and Germany-England-Poland alliance from the other side was, quite likely, might become a catastrophe.


Germany started to build Sigfrid line only in 1936. Exactly because Poland allowed them to do it.

Wow - you can really interpret anything you assume at free will into this topic - don't you?

And Russian "liberation" of Polish occupied lands - that just great.

If France would have reacted in 1936 - Nazi-Germany would have been a gone case. There was no need for France to receive support from Poland, neither from the UK. The Wehrmacht at the time was nowhere near the French Army - Hitler simply bluffed - foremost via propagating and stage managing the Luftwaffe. (Being the major reason as to the Luftwaffe not having enough well trained pilots upon 1939/40 and thus throughout the war).

 

[Zavulon]

What are the populations of the LANDS you hold? Not all of ukraine, but the lands you hold.

Roughly 2.5 mln in Crimea, plus 3.5 mln at already liberated lands of Novorussia, plus 2 mln of refuugees. So, we already have saved 8 mln of former Ukrainain citizens and there are still twenty million of them on Kievan-controlled territories.

Yeah, I find that hard to credit. This does not seem to be that kind of war, where you learn stuff and build up experienced veterans with strong habits.

You are just misinformed by your media and Kievan propaganda.

IF that was true, I would expect to see better gains and more panic (on the ukrainian side, obviously).

We don't want to scare them away. And, what is even more important, we need to prepare to war with the rest of Europe (and, may be, with the rest of NATO).

 

[Zavulon]

Whatever you say about the Russian gov't, they are adept at pacifying populations. Chechnya was quite the learning experience.

Yes. And now Chechnya is one of the most loyal regions of Russian Federation.

So a new, pro-Russian gov't would be a prerequisite for peace?

It should be pro-people. If they continue discriminate and kill significant part of their own population - there will be no peace, whatever Putin and Trump decide.

Elections would then follow the Russian democratic model where the incumbent gets 90% of the vote and the opposition gets jailed.

In 2020 70% of Ukraine's citizens voted for a Russian-speaking Jew because they wanted to live in peace with Russians. Its quite possible that on the case of choice between pro-Trump candidate (say, Arestovich) and pro-Putin candidate (say, Timoshenko) 90% will vote for Timoshenko. But it, of course, depends.

 

[alang1216]

Yes. And now Chechnya is one of the most loyal regions of Russian Federation.

Proves my point.

It should be pro-people. If they continue discriminate and kill significant part of their own population - there will be no peace, whatever Putin and Trump decide.

Someone should give that advice to Putin or Chechnya not always be one of the most loyal regions of Russian Federation.

In 2020 70% of Ukraine's citizens voted for a Russian-speaking Jew because they wanted to live in peace with Russians. Its quite possible that on the case of choice between pro-Trump candidate (say, Arestovich) and pro-Putin candidate (say, Timoshenko) 90% will vote for Timoshenko. But it, of course, depends.

Which of the two will offer Western prosperity and democracy AND allow Ukraine to live in peace with Russia?