Official Coronavirus Thread - Up to the minute Coronavirus map and count.

Grumblenuts

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What the hell is going on in North Dakota and South Dakota?
Within weeks of the gathering, the Dakotas, along with Wyoming, Minnesota and Montana, were leading the nation in new coronavirus infections per capita. The surge was especially pronounced in North and South Dakota, where cases and hospitalization rates continued their juggernaut rise into October. Experts say they will never be able to determine how many of those cases originated at the 10-day rally, given the failure of state and local health officials to identify and monitor attendees returning home, or to trace chains of transmission after people got sick.
Note the "per capita", XC. That's where your analysis is lacking. What's really needed is a true (geographic) measure of infection density: per capita / square mile. Then track how that changes over a given time interval.
 
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Uncensored2008

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It has been a little over a month since I last ran some numbers. I'd like to take another look at how death rates have changed in this time frame.

Methodology: Using worldometer, I'm looking at each state's death rate change from 9/14 to 10/20. I'm going to rank all of the states by death rate and indicate how much their death rate has changed in the last two weeks. For example, New Jersey has the highest death rate. Their death rate is currently 1,840 per million. Two weeks ago it was 1,819 per million. So that's a +21 difference.

After doing this with all states, we should get a real good idea of what's happening right now.

#1: New Jersey (+21)
#2: New York (+19)
#3: Massachusetts (+77)
#4: Connecticut (+19)
#5: Louisiana (+110)
#6: Rhode Island (+79)
#7: Mississippi (+156)
#8: Arizona (+70)
#9: Illinois (+75) (Up from 10th)
#10: Florida (+157) (Up from 16th)
#11: Michigan (+44)
#12: Georgia (+123) (Up from 14th)
#13: South Carolina (+113) (Up from 15th)
#14: Delaware (+50)
#15: Pennsylvania (+49)
#16: Maryland (+33)
#17: Texas (+104) (Up from 18th)
#18: Indiana (+77)
#19: Alabama (+89)
#20: Arkansas (+239) (Up from 27th)
#21: Nevada (+83)
#22: North Dakota (+312) (Up from 38th)
#23: Iowa (+100)
#24: New Mexico (+54)
#25: Missouri (+137) (Up from 31st)
#26: Ohio (+56)
#27: California (+64)
#28: Tennessee (+121) (Up from 30th)
#29: Minnesota (+56)
#30: Virginia (+84)
#31: Colorado (+33)
#32: North Carolina (+84)
#33: South Dakota (+157) (Up from 39th)
#34: New Hampshire (+23)
#35: Kansas (+114) (Up from 41st)
#36: Idaho (+63)
#37: Kentucky (+59)
#38: Washington (+34)
#39: Oklahoma (+67)
#40: Nebraska (+61)
#41: Wisconsin (+67)
#42: Montana (+96) (Up from 44th)
#43: West Virginia (+70)
#44: Utah (+34)
#45: Oregon (+28)
#46: Hawaii (+62) (Up from 49th)
#47: Maine (+8)
#48: Wyoming (+19)
#49: Vermont (+0)
#50: Alaska (+32)

Over the last month, the fastest growing death rates are coming from:
1) North Dakota (+312)
2) Arkansas (+239)
3) Florida (+157)
4) South Dakota (+157)
5) Mississippi (+156)
6) Missouri (+137)

Some interesting notes:

What the hell is going on in North Dakota and South Dakota?

I didn't even realize it, but North Dakota and South Dakota have the highest infection rates in the country. It's easy to overlook because not many people live there. Their death rates are also moving up very quickly.

Along with ND and SD, we have a few other newcomers at the top of this list including Arkansas and Missouri. Florida and Mississippi continue to stay among the worst.
Considering that the counting methodology is ALL deaths regardless of cause, where Covid-19 is present, those are very low numbers across the board.
 

BULLDOG

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It has been a little over a month since I last ran some numbers. I'd like to take another look at how death rates have changed in this time frame.

Methodology: Using worldometer, I'm looking at each state's death rate change from 9/14 to 10/20. I'm going to rank all of the states by death rate and indicate how much their death rate has changed in the last two weeks. For example, New Jersey has the highest death rate. Their death rate is currently 1,840 per million. Two weeks ago it was 1,819 per million. So that's a +21 difference.

After doing this with all states, we should get a real good idea of what's happening right now.

#1: New Jersey (+21)
#2: New York (+19)
#3: Massachusetts (+77)
#4: Connecticut (+19)
#5: Louisiana (+110)
#6: Rhode Island (+79)
#7: Mississippi (+156)
#8: Arizona (+70)
#9: Illinois (+75) (Up from 10th)
#10: Florida (+157) (Up from 16th)
#11: Michigan (+44)
#12: Georgia (+123) (Up from 14th)
#13: South Carolina (+113) (Up from 15th)
#14: Delaware (+50)
#15: Pennsylvania (+49)
#16: Maryland (+33)
#17: Texas (+104) (Up from 18th)
#18: Indiana (+77)
#19: Alabama (+89)
#20: Arkansas (+239) (Up from 27th)
#21: Nevada (+83)
#22: North Dakota (+312) (Up from 38th)
#23: Iowa (+100)
#24: New Mexico (+54)
#25: Missouri (+137) (Up from 31st)
#26: Ohio (+56)
#27: California (+64)
#28: Tennessee (+121) (Up from 30th)
#29: Minnesota (+56)
#30: Virginia (+84)
#31: Colorado (+33)
#32: North Carolina (+84)
#33: South Dakota (+157) (Up from 39th)
#34: New Hampshire (+23)
#35: Kansas (+114) (Up from 41st)
#36: Idaho (+63)
#37: Kentucky (+59)
#38: Washington (+34)
#39: Oklahoma (+67)
#40: Nebraska (+61)
#41: Wisconsin (+67)
#42: Montana (+96) (Up from 44th)
#43: West Virginia (+70)
#44: Utah (+34)
#45: Oregon (+28)
#46: Hawaii (+62) (Up from 49th)
#47: Maine (+8)
#48: Wyoming (+19)
#49: Vermont (+0)
#50: Alaska (+32)

Over the last month, the fastest growing death rates are coming from:
1) North Dakota (+312)
2) Arkansas (+239)
3) Florida (+157)
4) South Dakota (+157)
5) Mississippi (+156)
6) Missouri (+137)

Some interesting notes:

What the hell is going on in North Dakota and South Dakota?

I didn't even realize it, but North Dakota and South Dakota have the highest infection rates in the country. It's easy to overlook because not many people live there. Their death rates are also moving up very quickly.

Along with ND and SD, we have a few other newcomers at the top of this list including Arkansas and Missouri. Florida and Mississippi continue to stay among the worst.
Considering that the counting methodology is ALL deaths regardless of cause, where Covid-19 is present, those are very low numbers across the board.
My cousin is dead. She had heart problems, but was managing it much better than most. She would still be alive if she hadn't been exposed to covid19.
 

Uncensored2008

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My cousin is dead. She had heart problems, but was managing it much better than most. She would still be alive if she hadn't been exposed to covid19.
I'm sorry your cousin died of heart disease. Did Donald Trump personally give her heart disease? No doubt he did.

Under the Swine Flu she would be listed as death by heart disease, under Wuhan virus - well if the virus is present.

A cold or bad shrimp can trigger an episode with heart disease.
 

BULLDOG

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My cousin is dead. She had heart problems, but was managing it much better than most. She would still be alive if she hadn't been exposed to covid19.
I'm sorry your cousin died of heart disease. Did Donald Trump personally give her heart disease? No doubt he did.

Under the Swine Flu she would be listed as death by heart disease, under Wuhan virus - well if the virus is present.

A cold or bad shrimp can trigger an episode with heart disease.
But a cold or bad shrimp didn't trigger her death. The mismanagement of the covid19 virus did. She would be alive today, otherwise.
 

bripat9643

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My cousin is dead. She had heart problems, but was managing it much better than most. She would still be alive if she hadn't been exposed to covid19.
I'm sorry your cousin died of heart disease. Did Donald Trump personally give her heart disease? No doubt he did.

Under the Swine Flu she would be listed as death by heart disease, under Wuhan virus - well if the virus is present.

A cold or bad shrimp can trigger an episode with heart disease.
But a cold or bad shrimp didn't trigger her death. The mismanagement of the covid19 virus did. She would be alive today, otherwise.
Wrong.
 

XponentialChaos

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Note the "per capita", XC. That's where your analysis is lacking. What's really needed is a true (geographic) measure of infection density: per capita / square mile. Then track how that changes over a given time interval.
That might be interesting.

If we were looking at infection density changes over time, that would definitely tell a bigger story about North Dakota and South Dakota.

I don’t think I’ll pursue it though. I’ve been lagging enough on per capita death rate changes over time.
 

Zorro!

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It has been a little over a month since I last ran some numbers. I'd like to take another look at how death rates have changed in this time frame.

Methodology: Using worldometer, I'm looking at each state's death rate change from 9/14 to 10/20. I'm going to rank all of the states by death rate and indicate how much their death rate has changed in the last two weeks. For example, New Jersey has the highest death rate. Their death rate is currently 1,840 per million. Two weeks ago it was 1,819 per million. So that's a +21 difference.

After doing this with all states, we should get a real good idea of what's happening right now.

#1: New Jersey (+21)
#2: New York (+19)
#3: Massachusetts (+77)
#4: Connecticut (+19)
#5: Louisiana (+110)
#6: Rhode Island (+79)
#7: Mississippi (+156)
#8: Arizona (+70)
#9: Illinois (+75) (Up from 10th)
#10: Florida (+157) (Up from 16th)
#11: Michigan (+44)
#12: Georgia (+123) (Up from 14th)
#13: South Carolina (+113) (Up from 15th)
#14: Delaware (+50)
#15: Pennsylvania (+49)
#16: Maryland (+33)
#17: Texas (+104) (Up from 18th)
#18: Indiana (+77)
#19: Alabama (+89)
#20: Arkansas (+239) (Up from 27th)
#21: Nevada (+83)
#22: North Dakota (+312) (Up from 38th)
#23: Iowa (+100)
#24: New Mexico (+54)
#25: Missouri (+137) (Up from 31st)
#26: Ohio (+56)
#27: California (+64)
#28: Tennessee (+121) (Up from 30th)
#29: Minnesota (+56)
#30: Virginia (+84)
#31: Colorado (+33)
#32: North Carolina (+84)
#33: South Dakota (+157) (Up from 39th)
#34: New Hampshire (+23)
#35: Kansas (+114) (Up from 41st)
#36: Idaho (+63)
#37: Kentucky (+59)
#38: Washington (+34)
#39: Oklahoma (+67)
#40: Nebraska (+61)
#41: Wisconsin (+67)
#42: Montana (+96) (Up from 44th)
#43: West Virginia (+70)
#44: Utah (+34)
#45: Oregon (+28)
#46: Hawaii (+62) (Up from 49th)
#47: Maine (+8)
#48: Wyoming (+19)
#49: Vermont (+0)
#50: Alaska (+32)

Over the last month, the fastest growing death rates are coming from:
1) North Dakota (+312)
2) Arkansas (+239)
3) Florida (+157)
4) South Dakota (+157)
5) Mississippi (+156)
6) Missouri (+137)

Some interesting notes:

What the hell is going on in North Dakota and South Dakota?...
Might be that they are a little ahead of the rest of the country in terms of what's in store for the rest of us when the weather gets colder.
 

XponentialChaos

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1603519146754.png


Well.

I was hoping that we had peaked on the active cases curve as we were starting to come down about a month and a half ago. Unfortunately we're heading upward again. We just hit a new high number of over 81,000 new cases. That's not good.

Deaths are remaining steady at about 800-1,000 per day.

I'm hearing news about a vaccine possibly coming in a month. So maybe, hopefully, we're almost done with this mess.
 

XponentialChaos

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Over 91,000 new cases in one day. The number of new cases are getting worse.

Daily deaths are still steady at about 900 to 1,000 per day.
 

XponentialChaos

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Take a look at Vermont.

1604044522327.png


The last covid death they had was on August 6th, almost three months ago.

Right now they have the lowest infection rate and the lowest death rate.
 

Grumblenuts

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Yeah, the obvious question being what has Vermont been doing so right all this time?

Meanwhile, I'm hearing that Trump's been busy shipping quick tests out to rural areas all over the place, which is good, but... What's the political angle and the tests apparently haven't really proven any more trustworthy than the ones that take longer... so what's the point? Test results you can't trust are clearly worse than having none :dunno:
 

XponentialChaos

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Wow. Over 101,000 new cases in one day.

Japan has had a total of 99,622 cases. We surpassed their total in just one day.

Deaths are staying consistent around 900-1,000. Hopefully we don't see the deaths increase. A vaccine can't get here soon enough.
 

XponentialChaos

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Remember when 101,000 cases in one day was a lot?

Well we're way past that now. Yesterday we hit nearly 144,000 new cases and the day before was 142,000 new cases.

New cases are skyrocketing. Deaths are climbing as well.
 

Dont Taz Me Bro

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XponentialChaos

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It has been about 3 and a half weeks since I last ran some numbers. I'd like to take another look at how death rates have changed in this time frame.

Methodology: Using worldometer, I'm looking at each state's death rate change from 10/20 to 11/13. I'm going to rank all of the states by death rate and indicate how much their death rate has changed in the last two weeks. For example, New Jersey has the highest death rate. Their death rate is currently 1,875 per million. Three and a half weeks ago it was 1,840 per million. So that's a +35 difference.

After doing this with all states, we should get a real good idea of what's happening right now.

#1: New Jersey (+35)
#2: New York (+23)
#3: Massachusetts (+74)
#4: Connecticut (+52)
#5: Louisiana (+77)
#6: Rhode Island (+90)
#7: Mississippi (+117)
#8: North Dakota (+393) (Up from 22nd)
#9: Arizona (+59)
#10: Illinois (+110)
#11: Georgia (+118) (Up from 12th)
#12: Michigan (+95)
#13: Florida (+66)
#14: South Carolina (+113)
#15: Delaware (+70)
#16: Pennsylvania (+58)
#17: Indiana (+134) (Up from 18th)
#18: Arkansas (+144) (Up from 20th)
#19: Maryland (+39)
#20: Texas (+81)
#21: Alabama (+90)
#22: South Dakota (+277) (Up from 33rd)
#23: Iowa (+137)

#24: Nevada (+59)
#25: Missouri (+137)
#26: New Mexico (+125)
#27: Tennessee (+136) (Up from 28th)
#28: Minnesota (+107)
#29: Ohio (+56)
#30: California (+31)
#31: North Carolina (+74) (Up from 32nd)
#32: Montana (+221) (Up from 42nd)
#33: Virginia (+38)
#34: Wisconsin (+167) (Up from 41st)
#35: Colorado (+56)
#36: Kansas (+132)
#37: Idaho (+124)
#38: Nebraska (+105) (Up from 40th)
#39: Oklahoma (+81)
#40: Kentucky (+72)
#41: New Hampshire (+22)
#42: Washington (+35)
#43: West Virginia (+92)
#44: Wyoming (+121) (Up from 48th)
#45: Utah (+49)
#46: Oregon (+30)
#47: Hawaii (+25) (Up from 49th)
#48: Alaska (+41) (Up from 50th)
#49: Maine (+12)
#50: Vermont (+2)

Over the last 3.5 weeks, the fastest growing death rates are coming from:
1) North Dakota (+393)
2) South Dakota (+277)
3) Montana (+221)
4) Wisconsin (+167)
5) Arkansas (+144)
6-Tied) Missouri (+137)
6-Tied) Iowa (+137)

Over the last 3.5 weeks, the slowest growing death rates are coming from:
50) Vermont (+2)
49) Maine (+12)
48) New Hampshire (+22)
47) New York (+23)
46) Hawaii (+25)
45) Oregon (+30)

Some interesting notes:

North Dakota and South Dakota are getting pummeled.

This isn't surprising considering that they very quickly took over the top two spots for overall infection rates. North Dakota has gone from the 38th highest death rate to the 8th highest death rate in about a month and a half. The Dakotas look like they may dominate this list for a while.

We have a few other newcomers at the top of this list including Montana, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Arkansas and Missouri continue to stay among the worst.

Notice that the top three worst states are all neighbors: North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana.

We have a few states showing significant improvement that's a little surprising: Florida, Arizona, and Nevada.

The best performing states during this time period are also neighbors in the North East: Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, New York.

Vermont finally got another death due to covid. It had been nearly 3 months without a Vermont covid death.

With the very rapidly growing number of infections, increasing deaths, and Thanksgiving coming around the corner, I'm not feeling too optimistic about the numbers. However there is light at the end of the tunnel with the vaccine news.
 

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