NY Times: Obama Lead Shrinks in National Poll

[The Paperboy]

Obama's six percentage point lead over McCain occurred when three minor party candidates were included. This is down from his 11-point lead in the same poll taken Oct. 3-5.

Full story here

 

[Larkinn]

Obama's six percentage point lead over McCain occurred when three minor party candidates were included. This is down from his 11-point lead in the same poll taken Oct. 3-5.

Full story here

Oh noes! Obama might win only by a mini landslide, not a major one.

The tragedy of it all.

 

[DiamondDave]

Much like I tell the ones touting poll #'s and trying to support the other side of the coin....

POLLS MEAN JACK SQUAT

 

[DavidS]

Much like I tell the ones touting poll #'s and trying to support the other side of the coin....

POLLS MEAN JACK SQUAT

You're dead wrong, Diamond Dave. Individual polls, mean jack squat.

When you look at polls together, and not just one poll, all of the polls, together over 2-3 weeks.. those mean something.

Every single one of those polls mean something.

 

[DiamondDave]

You're dead wrong, Diamond Dave. Individual polls, mean jack squat.

When you look at polls together, and not just one poll, all of the polls, together over 2-3 weeks.. those mean something.

Every single one of those polls mean something.

No... they only mean something in terms of the small number of people actually polled...

The only fucking poll that matters is the one that takes place on election day... the only one that counts... poll after poll after meaningless poll has shown to be all over the spectrum in result and does not inherently map the true test of the ballots actually cast....

 

[RetiredGySgt]

Polls are an attempt to sway voters. The press for the most part want Obama as President so they have a vested interest in polls that show him ahead.

 

[Larkinn]

Polls are an attempt to sway voters. The press for the most part want Obama as President so they have a vested interest in polls that show him ahead.

Omg, its all a conspiracy! Run for the hills!

 

[Larkinn]

No... they only mean something in terms of the small number of people actually polled...

The only fucking poll that matters is the one that takes place on election day... the only one that counts... poll after poll after meaningless poll has shown to be all over the spectrum in result and does not inherently map the true test of the ballots actually cast....

pssst, its called a representative sample. We've gotten pretty good at doing it.

 

[DiamondDave]

pssst, its called a representative sample. We've gotten pretty good at doing it.

Yet in poll to poll the results are horribly askew... and the end result in the only poll that counts does not usually map out regularly with any sample poll....

Polls are a way to draw attention, grab news, etc for the entertainment value of the news and the press... and only mean anything in terms of the actual people polled.... no matter how they choose the couple thousand they poll

 

[AllieBaba]

Polls are an attempt to sway voters. The press for the most part want Obama as President so they have a vested interest in polls that show him ahead.

Exactly.

 

[AllieBaba]

pssst, its called a representative sample. We've gotten pretty good at doing it.

Who's "we", dumbshit?

CNN? MSNBC? Where the lefty viewers all get on as quick as they can, and the conservatives sit back and crack up?

How good were "you" good at predicting the election of 2004?

 

[Larkinn]

Yet in poll to poll the results are horribly askew... and the end result in the only poll that counts does not usually map out regularly with any sample poll....

Pssst, its called the aggregate. Which polls generally match pretty well.

Polls are a way to draw attention, grab news, etc for the entertainment value of the news and the press... and only mean anything in terms of the actual people polled.... no matter how they choose the couple thousand they poll

Umm, no. Both McCain and Obama, who are far more experienced in this type of thing than you are, listen to polls very closely. You think McCain pulled out of Michigan on a whim?

 

[del]

You're dead wrong, Diamond Dave. Individual polls, mean jack squat.

When you look at polls together, and not just one poll, all of the polls, together over 2-3 weeks.. those mean something.

Every single one of those polls mean something.

so if i take a bunch of individual meaningless/incorrect data, collect it for 2 or 3 weeks, and then look at it again, it's meaningful and correct.

wow.

 

[Larkinn]

Who's "we", dumbshit?

People who aren't troglodytes such as you.

CNN? MSNBC? Where the lefty viewers all get on as quick as they can, and the conservatives sit back and crack up?

How good were "you" good at predicting the election of 2004?

Pretty damn good, actually. Its been shown to you previously the aggregate of polls before the 2004 election. You've ignored it, surprise surprise.

 

[RetiredGySgt]

pssst, its called a representative sample. We've gotten pretty good at doing it.

Ya that is why in 2000, 2002 , 2004 and 2006 the polls were so off right?

 

[Larkinn]

Ya that is why in 2000, 2002 , 2004 and 2006 the polls were so off right?

Except they weren't. In 2006, it was predicted that Democrats would make gains. Oh wait, they did. In 2004 it was predicted that Bush would win. Oh wait, he did.

 

[DiamondDave]

Except they weren't. In 2006, it was predicted that Democrats would make gains. Oh wait, they did. In 2004 it was predicted that Bush would win. Oh wait, he did.

Yet there were other predictions they would gain more than that.. and still other predictions they would gain less.. and other predictions they would have no gains at all... those polls were no more successful than the odds of pure chance.... even a blind squirrel finds the occasional nut

 

[Larkinn]

Yet there were other predictions they would gain more than that.. and still other predictions they would gain less.. and other predictions they would have no gains at all... those polls were no more successful than the odds of pure chance.... even a blind squirrel finds the occasional nut

*sigh*. Must I spell everything out for you? The majority of predictions predicted that Democrats would make gains.

 

[jimmyb]

Predictions are all based on assumptions, and no one knows the correct assumptions.

 

[Article 15]

RCP is pretty good at this, folks ...

RealClear Politics - Polls