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"There are some initial indications they might not have full control," the official said of the device that was the payload for North Korea's first successful long-range rocket launch. The official, who has access to the latest U.S. assessment, declined to be identified by name due to the sensitive nature of the information. The satellite, described by one U.S. defense official as a rudimentary communications satellite with limited capability, is on a Polar orbit, meaning it is moving between the North and South poles.
Since there are issues about control, the United States is not certain the satellite is in a fully stable orbit. "We don't know. We are still trying to figure that out," the U.S. official said. However, he also cautioned the satellite could stay in its relatively low altitude orbit for months before either burning up or falling back to Earth. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta alluded to the problem in an interview Wednesday that was to air on CNN's 'Erin Burnett OutFront." "I think we still have to assess exactly what happened here," Panetta told Burnett in the interview. Panetta said part of that scrutiny was to look at the final stage that launched the satellite into orbit "to determine whether or not that did work effectively or whether it tumbled into space."
The official cautioned that the North Koreans could resolve whatever technical issues they may be facing. While not necessarily fully handling the satellite, it is not thought to be spinning uncontrollably. In a key indicator of a potential problem, there was no indication that North Korea's ground control had sent a crucial radio signal to the satellite, the official explained. That type of signal is expected almost immediately as it is used to order the satellite to deploy solar panels that power its electronics.
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"We will go to New York with a full head of steam and work hard with our partners on the council to get a tough, swift reaction," one official said. Washington may push for sanctions similar to those imposed on Iran over its nuclear program, the officials said. The measures would target financial institutions and would designate specific members of the North Korean government for sanctions as well. "There is a pretty strong commitment to go with a seriousness of purpose," one official said. It is unclear whether such tough measures would be approved by the Security Council. North Korean allies China and Russia, two of the council's permanent members, could exercise their veto power.
The U.S. government has already been talking with China and Russia - as well as South Korea and Japan, the other partners in the ongoing six-party talks with North Korea - about potential consequences if Pyongyang ignored international warnings and launched its missile. Even if the Security Council fails to pass sanctions, the United States and other nations could impose unilateral measures, as they have with Iran, the senior administration officials said. Pyongyang has previously pressed ahead with rocket launches and nuclear tests despite international sanctions. North Korea angered many in the international community Wednesday by launching a long-range rocket that appeared to put a satellite in orbit - a breakthrough for the reclusive, nuclear-equipped state.
The rocket successfully blasted off from a space center on the country's west coast and delivered a satellite into its intended orbit, the North Korean regime said. The launch followed a botched attempt in April and came just days after Pyongyang suggested a planned launch could be delayed. North Korea's previous claims of successful satellite launches have been dismissed by the United States and other countries, but this time it seemed to have pulled it off. Initial indications suggest the rocket "deployed an object that appeared to achieve orbit," the North American Aerospace Defense Command, the joint U.S.-Canadian aerospace agency, said in a statement. The sudden launch ratcheted up tensions in East Asia.
It also undermined speculation that the young North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, might take steps to moderate his nation's uncompromising approach to foreign relations. "This is something that we have to worry about," Philip Yun, who advised former President Bill Clinton on North Korean issues, said of the launch. He noted that it had taken the United States 24 attempts to successfully launch a similar kind of vehicle. But North Korea still has a lot work of to do "if they're actually going to mount a nuclear device or a weapon on a rocket," said Yun, who is executive director of the Ploughshares Fund, a U.S.-based foundation that seeks to stop the spread of nuclear weapons.
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North Korea's intention to carry out a new nuclear test, coming on the heels of December's successful satellite launch, suggests that Pyongyang is moving forward toward developing a nuclear warhead and a deliverable missile system, experts say. The question remains: How close are they? The answer, like the cloistered "hermit kingdom," remains largely a mystery as does much of its nuclear program. "It's a question over the delivery system and the reliability of those systems," said Daniel Pinkston, senior analyst for the International Crisis Group covering Northeast Asia. "That is essentially unknown, or known by a few people inside North Korea."
A 2009 report by International Crisis Group suspects that North Korea "probably has somewhere between six and twelve nuclear weapons, or at least explosive devices," but notes that experts are divided whether any of these to be now useable as warheads -- small enough to be mounted on missiles and durable enough to withstand the hazards of flight. "It's pretty clear that these are advanced technologies and the systems present a number of engineering challenges -- and to master these technologies requires a number of tests," Pinkston said.
A North Korean soldier stands guard in front of an Unha-3 rocket at the Tangachai-ri Space Center
Last month, on the first anniversary of Kim Jong Il's death, North Korea successfully launched a three-stage rocket that put the satellite, Shining Star-3, into orbit. The launch also signaled that the North's long-range missile program now puts the United States within reach. Last week, the United Nations Security Council unanimously passed a resolution that strengthened sanctions against the north in response to the December rocket launch. Declaring sanctions to be tantamount to "a declaration of war," North Korea is threatening further missile and nuclear tests which it said are a new phase of confrontation with the United States.
A new underground nuclear test would be the third, following tests in 2009 and 2006. While seismographs will be able to confirm if North Korea has an underground test, the size of the nuclear blast will be difficult to determine, Pinkston said. "From what I understand it is virtually impossible to mask a nuclear event in terms of concealing it due to seismographs," Pinkston said. "But as far as the accuracy of the assessment of the yield, that's where the difficulty lies." Estimates of the size, or "yield," of the 2009 nuclear test range from 2.5 kilotons to 6 kilotons, Pinkston said. By comparison, the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima had a yield of 16 kilotons.
While the specter of a North Korea able to send nuclear-tipped missiles is worrisome, equally troublesome to the international community is Pyongyang's atomic technology fuelling the black market for weapons. "If its clandestine uranium-enrichment program has made strides, Pyongyang could demonstrate that it will gain access to a far larger pool of fissile material than simply its limited supply of weapons-grade plutonium," wrote Patrick M. Cronin, an Asian expert at the Center for New American Security, in a CNN op-ed. "A larger pool of fissile material is a dual threat: As a vital part of an expanded nuclear weapon program and as a commodity to be sold on the black market."
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The Punggye-ri site, which has three tunnel entrances and multiple support buildings, has been closely monitored by US, South Korean and Japanese intelligence since North Korea ramped up its test threats just more than a week ago. Analysis showed a camouflage net looking like a roof was placed on the tunnel entrance, Yonhap News Agency cited a senior South Korean government source as saying. The move seems to be aimed at keeping nuclear test preparations now near their completion from being exposed outside, the source said.
North Korea has threatened to carry out its third nuclear test in response to UN sanctions imposed on Pyongyang for a long-range rocket launch it carried out in December. The North said the launch was a scientific mission aimed at placing a satellite in orbit, but most of the world saw it as a disguised ballistic missile test. Yonhap quoted an intelligence source as saying the cover at the test site may be aimed at confusing outside watchers. It seems like a disturbance tactic, similar to one that was used when the North prepared the rocket launch, the source said.
The Souths intelligence agencies had been embarrassed by the timing of the December launch, partly because of the Norths use of camouflage at the launch site. At one point, diplomatic and military sources suggested the launch was facing a lengthy delay, while some said the rocket had been completely removed from the pad. The rocket blasted off a day later. The heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula come ahead of a series of military exercises by South Korea this month, including separate joint drills with US forces.
North Korea trying to hide nuclear test site, report says - Taipei Times
