RhodyPatriot
Diamond Member
- Aug 28, 2022
- 16,988
- 22,596
- 2,288
First of all, let me clearly preface this by saying resoundingly: I am not claiming MAGA won on Tuesday night.
Nor am I asserting that the GOP does not have lamentable problems from a ground-game/strategic perspective.
We should dispatch Ronna McDaniel and the GOP Establishment post-haste, and install someone like Scott Pressler who has an actual passion to win - and not just enrich himself from the status quo.
That said, the current Dem narrative regarding 11/7 must be subverted, and can easily be for one simple reason: It is entirely false.
I will summon up as much brevity as I can muster, but sometimes a guy just has to get something out of his system.
So away we go:
First off. Context.
Dems: MAGA hasn't won an election since 2016!!!
Really?
2018: Dems win the House, Republicans retain the Senate in the mid-terms. No real debate from anyone halfway credible that this was pretty ho-hum and to be expected, so let's not dwell.
2020: This, of course, is the big one with both sides being tenaciously entrenched in their camps. But let us play make believe for a moment. Let's concede that none of the irregularities occurred, the Media did not lie about the Hunter Biden laptop, and we didn't have the strangest most communist election since any of us were alive due to a virus with a .2% mortality rate.
IE, for the most part, everything was on the up and up. Laughable, I know, but stick with me here.
Two things:
1) Biden still barely won, with eminently superior approval numbers than the abyss he's currently traversing. We're talking just a few thousand votes in a few swing states scattered in just the right delicate amalgamation. It wasn't some fucking epic victory - at all. And, again, that's pretending there was anything even remotely legit about it with no ballot harvesting/printing or media chicanery whatsoever.
2) And this one truly grinds my gears because even Right Wing doomers forget this: Democrats ALSO had a horrible night in 2020. Despite having been projected to widen gains in the House amidst a Biden "victory", they actually lost seats to the point where Pelosi was commanding the smallest majority since World War fucking 2. (The exact majority the Republicans preside over now. Oh the irony.)
And in the Senate the Dems way under performed their numbers, barely taking the chamber only thanks to the tie breaking vote of the cackling menace who is now helping to drag down their 2024 prospects in no small way, along with a demoralized MAGA base that refused to turn out to vote for the stooges running in the Georgia run offs that year.
So even if you buy the narrative on 2020 (and none of us with any self respect or critical thinking abilities do), it is nothing less than simplistic dreck to brazenly declare "MAGA LOST IN 2020!"
3) 2022: Republicans undeniably had a far weaker performance than anticipated. (Red Trickle).
But:
a) Mitch McConnell and the Establishment in the Senate withheld support and funding from MAGA candidates
and
b) The Republicans actually had significant victories in deep blue territory where they were expected to barely even compete. (We're talkin' NY/CA as the most prominent examples.) And here's the kicker: Whyyyyy were they able to do this?
BALLOT HARVESTING.
In NY/CA the state parties wizened up and defeated the Dems at their own crooked game. And we would not enjoy our current House majority had we neglected to do so.
But this is a massive, gaping hole in the Corporate Media's narrative, so of course they make sure to always neglect to mention this to their Legions of unquestioning zombie leftists.
Which brings us to 2023:
In Kentucky a well liked Democrat good ole' boy defeated a Mitch McConnell backed opponent who Trump endorsed only in the closing weeks. He also happened to be a bad candidate who only mentioned his Trump endorsement without telling the people what he would actually do for them. Meanwhile, every other statewide Republican won.
In short, if you think Kentucky is going blue in '24, you're an abject imbecile.
In Virginia, Republicans won every single district that was Biden +8 or less, and retained every single Trump district.
If you didn't already know this, let that one sink in, because it's another cannon blast to the pirate ship of media propaganda about "STUNNING DEFEAT FOR THE GOP" yadda yadda.
The truth is, as many other astute posters on here have previously alluded to, VA is still a blue state. But Dems only picked up the Legislature due to winning districts Biden had won by double digits in 2020.
IE, it was always going to be a monumental task to wrest the state away from the Democrat machine.
Then, of course, the state that completes the Trifecta of 2023 woe is Ohio, where abortion won big.
And now we come to the part where we explode the biggest component of the Dems' talking point arsenal:
ABORTION.
To put it as succinctly as possible, the abortion predicament for the GOP has just about run its course.
To understand this, we have to recognize one of the largest transformations of the electorate and the way it behaves since Good Time Donnie arrived on the scene.
And that is: The GOP becoming a working class/middle class coalition that participates exponentially more so in Presidential years, and the Dems becoming a cloistered rickety partnership between the wealthy and their poor minority beneficiary class.
The precise opposite used to hold true: Dems turned out more in Presidential years, but their voting attendance waned in "off years".
Now, with the virtual transformation of the voters who comprise the two parties, it's vice versa. The most conventional media hack like Larry Sabato or Nate Silver wouldn't dispute this.
And what does that mean? It means, that not only are Republicans now weaker in "off years", because our coalition doesn't turn up - but it also means abortion won't mean jackshit in 2024. It is way down the list of issues voters care about in every poll under the sun, and the voters who do prioritize it will make up nowhere near the sizeable contingency of the electorate that they enjoy in "off years".
Couple that with the fact that Biden is bleeding his coalition of minority and young voters, and it spells intense foreboding for the Party that currently possesses the White House.
To conclude, if you're a Leftist who thinks Tuesday night augurs well for your Party a year from now, you just aren't taking a deep dive into the way the electorate now functions.
And if you're a Right Wing doomer who thinks we're weaker with Trump on the ticket, or "ABORTION" will now defeat MAGA.
You're just paying attention to the wrong people.
The truth is the GOP are royally screwed without Trump. When conservatives complain he's not really a conservative? They're right! At least, in the conventional sense. Much of his vote comes from people who won't vote for the rest of the GOP unless Orange Man is on the ticket.
It may be a cliche' but right now it is as true as ever:
It is always darkest before the dawn.
And there's another little saying that comes to mind.
What was that now?
Oh yeah:
Don't count your chickens before they've hatched.
Nor am I asserting that the GOP does not have lamentable problems from a ground-game/strategic perspective.
We should dispatch Ronna McDaniel and the GOP Establishment post-haste, and install someone like Scott Pressler who has an actual passion to win - and not just enrich himself from the status quo.
That said, the current Dem narrative regarding 11/7 must be subverted, and can easily be for one simple reason: It is entirely false.
I will summon up as much brevity as I can muster, but sometimes a guy just has to get something out of his system.
So away we go:
First off. Context.
Dems: MAGA hasn't won an election since 2016!!!
Really?
2018: Dems win the House, Republicans retain the Senate in the mid-terms. No real debate from anyone halfway credible that this was pretty ho-hum and to be expected, so let's not dwell.
2020: This, of course, is the big one with both sides being tenaciously entrenched in their camps. But let us play make believe for a moment. Let's concede that none of the irregularities occurred, the Media did not lie about the Hunter Biden laptop, and we didn't have the strangest most communist election since any of us were alive due to a virus with a .2% mortality rate.
IE, for the most part, everything was on the up and up. Laughable, I know, but stick with me here.
Two things:
1) Biden still barely won, with eminently superior approval numbers than the abyss he's currently traversing. We're talking just a few thousand votes in a few swing states scattered in just the right delicate amalgamation. It wasn't some fucking epic victory - at all. And, again, that's pretending there was anything even remotely legit about it with no ballot harvesting/printing or media chicanery whatsoever.
2) And this one truly grinds my gears because even Right Wing doomers forget this: Democrats ALSO had a horrible night in 2020. Despite having been projected to widen gains in the House amidst a Biden "victory", they actually lost seats to the point where Pelosi was commanding the smallest majority since World War fucking 2. (The exact majority the Republicans preside over now. Oh the irony.)
And in the Senate the Dems way under performed their numbers, barely taking the chamber only thanks to the tie breaking vote of the cackling menace who is now helping to drag down their 2024 prospects in no small way, along with a demoralized MAGA base that refused to turn out to vote for the stooges running in the Georgia run offs that year.
So even if you buy the narrative on 2020 (and none of us with any self respect or critical thinking abilities do), it is nothing less than simplistic dreck to brazenly declare "MAGA LOST IN 2020!"
3) 2022: Republicans undeniably had a far weaker performance than anticipated. (Red Trickle).
But:
a) Mitch McConnell and the Establishment in the Senate withheld support and funding from MAGA candidates
and
b) The Republicans actually had significant victories in deep blue territory where they were expected to barely even compete. (We're talkin' NY/CA as the most prominent examples.) And here's the kicker: Whyyyyy were they able to do this?
BALLOT HARVESTING.
In NY/CA the state parties wizened up and defeated the Dems at their own crooked game. And we would not enjoy our current House majority had we neglected to do so.
But this is a massive, gaping hole in the Corporate Media's narrative, so of course they make sure to always neglect to mention this to their Legions of unquestioning zombie leftists.
Which brings us to 2023:
In Kentucky a well liked Democrat good ole' boy defeated a Mitch McConnell backed opponent who Trump endorsed only in the closing weeks. He also happened to be a bad candidate who only mentioned his Trump endorsement without telling the people what he would actually do for them. Meanwhile, every other statewide Republican won.
In short, if you think Kentucky is going blue in '24, you're an abject imbecile.
In Virginia, Republicans won every single district that was Biden +8 or less, and retained every single Trump district.
If you didn't already know this, let that one sink in, because it's another cannon blast to the pirate ship of media propaganda about "STUNNING DEFEAT FOR THE GOP" yadda yadda.
The truth is, as many other astute posters on here have previously alluded to, VA is still a blue state. But Dems only picked up the Legislature due to winning districts Biden had won by double digits in 2020.
IE, it was always going to be a monumental task to wrest the state away from the Democrat machine.
Then, of course, the state that completes the Trifecta of 2023 woe is Ohio, where abortion won big.
And now we come to the part where we explode the biggest component of the Dems' talking point arsenal:
ABORTION.
To put it as succinctly as possible, the abortion predicament for the GOP has just about run its course.
To understand this, we have to recognize one of the largest transformations of the electorate and the way it behaves since Good Time Donnie arrived on the scene.
And that is: The GOP becoming a working class/middle class coalition that participates exponentially more so in Presidential years, and the Dems becoming a cloistered rickety partnership between the wealthy and their poor minority beneficiary class.
The precise opposite used to hold true: Dems turned out more in Presidential years, but their voting attendance waned in "off years".
Now, with the virtual transformation of the voters who comprise the two parties, it's vice versa. The most conventional media hack like Larry Sabato or Nate Silver wouldn't dispute this.
And what does that mean? It means, that not only are Republicans now weaker in "off years", because our coalition doesn't turn up - but it also means abortion won't mean jackshit in 2024. It is way down the list of issues voters care about in every poll under the sun, and the voters who do prioritize it will make up nowhere near the sizeable contingency of the electorate that they enjoy in "off years".
Couple that with the fact that Biden is bleeding his coalition of minority and young voters, and it spells intense foreboding for the Party that currently possesses the White House.
To conclude, if you're a Leftist who thinks Tuesday night augurs well for your Party a year from now, you just aren't taking a deep dive into the way the electorate now functions.
And if you're a Right Wing doomer who thinks we're weaker with Trump on the ticket, or "ABORTION" will now defeat MAGA.
You're just paying attention to the wrong people.
The truth is the GOP are royally screwed without Trump. When conservatives complain he's not really a conservative? They're right! At least, in the conventional sense. Much of his vote comes from people who won't vote for the rest of the GOP unless Orange Man is on the ticket.
It may be a cliche' but right now it is as true as ever:
It is always darkest before the dawn.
And there's another little saying that comes to mind.
What was that now?
Oh yeah:
Don't count your chickens before they've hatched.
