Nate Silver- only 10% chance Trump wins

[Billy000]

Nate Silver is wrong. For all I think that Biden will win, I still give Trump’s chances at 50/50.

But what are you basing that on?

 

[Corky]

VOTE .... VOTE ... VOTE ...

Every VOTE counts.

Stomp Trump and the entire GOP into the ground !!

 

[Indeependent]

Nate Silver, boy genius and favorite poll forecaster of the unhinged left, gives Trump only a 1 in 10 chance of winning. I guess he didn't learn a thing from his blown forecast in 2016......Maybe he uses the same model that Fauci used to forecast the Wu-Flu deaths?

He gets paid to provide a meme.

 

[whitehall]

Nate Silver had Hillary at %71.4 in 2016.

 

[Toro]

Nate flunked out in 2016. Now the swing states are tightening and pedo joe is worried.

Not really.

Wisconsin : President: general election Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[JimBowie1958]

Here's how retarded the Trump cultists are, especially at math.

Trump has a 10% chance of winning. That's the equivalent of a 10-point underdog winning in the NFL.

Do 10-point dogs win in the NFL? Yes. About 1 in every 10 games.

So believing that polls (or poll aggregators, such as 538) are "all wrong" or "always wrong" is about as retarded as believing Vegas is "all wrong" or "always wrong" on sports betting when picking winners based on the spread.

It's like the Trump cultists betting that the 10-point dog will always win.

Here is h ow retarded gullible libtards are at understanding economics and how they work.

If 56% of the voters think that they are better off than 4 years ago, they dont vote the incumbent out, doofus.

 

[Toro]

Nate Silver had Hillary at %71.4 in 2016.

Right. The equivalent if a 4-point favorite in the NFL.

If a 4-point favorite in the NFL loses, do you believe that the Vegas oddsmakers are "all wrong?"

 

[JimBowie1958]

Nate flunked out in 2016. Now the swing states are tightening and pedo joe is worried.

Not really.


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Wisconsin : President: general election Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

You really can't look past the numbers at all, can you?

You just gulp down any rot the LSM tosses to you.

I feel really bad for you dude.

 

[Toro]

You really cant look past the numbers at all, can you?

If Trump was up by 8, I'd say the exact same thing about Trump winning.

Too bad you are all about the "feels"

 

[JLW]

Nate Silver is wrong. For all I think that Biden will win, I still give Trump’s chances at 50/50.

But what are you basing that on?

Maybe it is just because I just watched 60 Minutes and just can’t believe what I heard some people say about Trump. I may be overestimating the number of people who want change and underestimating the enthusiasm for Trump. The election will be very close. Though I still think Biden will pull it out. I also have my doubts about polls as well.

 

[BlackSand]

His probability was obviously based on data. He’s a statistician and you aren’t.

But see, I didn't reference his statistics, nor argue their validity.
I simply stated that he could make a number up, be wrong again, and some fools would try to explain things.

Thanks for volunteering as one of the fools ...

.

 

[JimBowie1958]

I mean that a 10-point underdog has a 10% chance of winning outright.

That is not what a spread means, doofus.

 

[Billy000]

His probability was obviously based on data. He’s a statistician and you aren’t.

But see, I didn't reference his statistics, nor argue their validity.
I simply stated that he could make a number up, be wrong again, and some fools would try to explain things.

Thanks for volunteering as one of the fools ...

.

So you’re just rambling irrelevant non sense? Got it.

 

[Toro]

I mean that a 10-point underdog has a 10% chance of winning outright.

That is not what a spread means, doofus.

Please stop being stupid. Aren't you a software engineer or something? Usually you guys aren't this dumb about math.

If you ask the question, which team is going to win? And you look at a 10-point favorite and ask the same question, about 90% of the time, the 10-point spread wins outright.

But I know that you are deep, deep, deep into the cult. You demonstrated that when you were arguing that "Trump really didn't say that" when you watched him say exactly that. lol

Cultists are gonna cult.

 

[Missourian]

Poll models and climate models = GIGO...

Garbage In, Garbage Out.

In 2004, polls predicted Bush would win. Polls were right.

In 2006, polls predicted Democrats would win in the midterm elections. Polls were right.

In 2008, polls predicted Obama would win. Polls were right.

In 2010, polls predicted Republicans would make big gains in the midterm elections. Polls were right.

In 2012, polls predicted Obama would win. Polls were right. "Unskewed polls." Remember that?

In 2016, polls predicted Hillary would win. Polls were right about the national vote. They were wrong at the state level in three states where Trump won by 1%< of the electorate. District polls were showing a shift to Trump. District polls were right.

In 2018, polls predicted Republicans would get crushed in the House and pick up a few seats in the Senate. Polls were right.

Sure...I get that...

Generic Republican vs generic Democrat...they've had years to work out the angles...

If (R x X)/(R x Z - 4) is greater than or equal to (D x X)/(D x Z -8) then R.

It works.

The variables change but the equation still functions.

But Trump isn't generic Republican.

If (T x X)/(T x Z - 4) is greater than or equal to (D x X)/(D x Z -8) then *@!?# TILT*.

It didn't work last time...which gave us a 4.4 error in the state polling...and in my opinion we're about to see a that error repeated...because they, like you, can't see that it's the model isn't working.

 

[JimBowie1958]

You really cant look past the numbers at all, can you?

If Trump was up by 8, I'd say the exact same thing about Trump winning.
Too bad you are all about the "feels"

No, I am about the numbers that underly the polls and what they mean.

You ignored my main point entirely which is why you are once again wrong.

When 56% of the voters think that they are better off than 4 years ago, the incumbent does not lose.

The enthusiasm levels say more Trump voters will crawl over broken glass to vote for him, while Biden voters are largely uninspired, as indicated by lower minority turnout thus far.

But you don't get that because you are using a very shallow analysis to support who you want to win.

You are the equivalent of the fat lady who puts her finger on the washbasin countertop when she steps on the scales and claims to be losing weight.

 

[Billy000]

Nate Silver is wrong. For all I think that Biden will win, I still give Trump’s chances at 50/50.

But what are you basing that on?

Maybe it is just because I just watched 60 Minutes and just can’t believe what I heard some people say about Trump. I may be overestimating the number of people who want change and underestimating the enthusiasm for Trump. The election will be very close. Though I still think Biden will pull it out. I also have my doubts about polls as well.

I think Trumptards are just louder and more obnoxious so we are all more likely to notice them. It’s the attention they crave.

 

[candycorn]

Nate Silver, boy genius and favorite poll forecaster of the unhinged left, gives Trump only a 1 in 10 chance of winning. I guess he didn't learn a thing from his blown forecast in 2016......Maybe he uses the same model that Fauci used to forecast the Wu-Flu deaths?

View attachment 409795

Trump's biggest problem is that he can no longer sell "Mexico will pay for the wall".... Obama care will be replaced with "Something Terrific".... he can't say he'll balance the budget....

Those who voted for him last time because he said all of this would happen would (or should) know better by now.

 

[JLW]

Nate Silver is wrong. For all I think that Biden will win, I still give Trump’s chances at 50/50.

But what are you basing that on?

Maybe it is just because I just watched 60 Minutes and just can’t believe what I heard some people say about Trump. I may be overestimating the number of people who want change and underestimating the enthusiasm for Trump. The election will be very close. Though I still think Biden will pull it out. I also have my doubts about polls as well.

I think Trumptards are just louder and more obnoxious so we are all more likely to notice them. It’s the attention they crave.

Let’s hope.

 

[BlackSand]

So you’re just rambling irrelevant non sense? Got it.

It's only irrelevant to you because you are a fool and lack the wherewithal to understand the basic simplicity of the comments made.

You cannot fight it, because it is true.
It doesn't matter if he is right or wrong, nor what the number is.

Some people (like you) ... Will still try to make some sense out of it.
All I said was that there was a 100% chance of that happening ... And you are doing it ...

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