Nate Silver- only 10% chance Trump wins

[Toro]

Oh, thanks Jim. 90% v 84% is a HUGE difference! lol

I used to play blackjack a whole bunch, and a 6% difference would draw blackjack players from across the world, dude.

You are not a serious gambler I can see that.

I'm sorry. I forgot. I'm a "normie."

I do this with billions of dollars, and have done it successfully for decades.

And the difference of 6% with an error factor doesn't mean much.

 

[DJT for Life]

Here's how retarded the Trump cultists are, especially at math.

Trump has a 10% chance of winning. That's the equivalent of a 10-point underdog winning in the NFL.

Do 10-point dogs win in the NFL? Yes. About 1 in every 10 games.

So believing that polls (or poll aggregators, such as 538) are "all wrong" or "always wrong" is about as retarded as believing Vegas is "all wrong" or "always wrong" on sports betting when picking winners based on the spread.

It's like the Trump cultists betting that the 10-point dog will always win.

I hate to be the the one breaking the math news to you...But a10% chance of winning is not the same as a 10 point underdog..'
If a person has only 1 in 10 chances of winning...they then have 9 in 10 chances of losing. By your math/calculations,
that would make him a 90-point underdog.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

November 3rd is the only poll that counts.

 

[LiberalsLIE]

Nate Silver, boy genius

Looks more like a boy fondler

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Nate Silver, boy genius and favorite poll forecaster of the unhinged left, gives Trump only a 1 in 10 chance of winning. I guess he didn't learn a thing from his blown forecast in 2016......Maybe he uses the same model that Fauci used to forecast the Wu-Flu deaths?

in 2016 Nate gave pussygrabber much better chance at 27%, and yes, pussygrabber lost by 3 million votes, getting a razor thin electoral votes win..

306-232 isn't razor thin, nincompoop

Nice try though

 

[Missourian]

Why?

Because Trump isn't a generic Republican.

And just so you understand...we're never going back.

You are a Democrat now.

If Trump loses...in four years you're going to try to give us a Romney or a McCain or a Dole or another Bush...I'm going to be you...saying no...absolutely not... and promoting the other guy.

There will not be another Republican candidate like you would want in your lifetime that will win a national election. You want to sell out the country, you'll not only do it without me...I'll be actively opposing them.

 

[JimBowie1958]

 

[Cellblock2429]

Nate Silver, boy genius and favorite poll forecaster of the unhinged left, gives Trump only a 1 in 10 chance of winning. I guess he didn't learn a thing from his blown forecast in 2016......Maybe he uses the same model that Fauci used to forecast the Wu-Flu deaths?

in 2016 Nate gave pussygrabber much better chance at 27%, and yes, pussygrabber lost by 3 million votes, getting a razor thin electoral votes win..

/—-/ You not only suc at math, you suc at Civics.

 

[The Original Tree]

Nate Silver, boy genius and favorite poll forecaster of the unhinged left, gives Trump only a 1 in 10 chance of winning. I guess he didn't learn a thing from his blown forecast in 2016......Maybe he uses the same model that Fauci used to forecast the Wu-Flu deaths?

He looks like a kid molesting fag and the girl behind him seems to know it.

 

[ninja007]

id hate to see nates numbers if trump had as few biden supporters at their rallies as biden has at his. trump supporters outnumber biden 50 to 1 lol.

 

[westwall]

Here's how retarded the Trump cultists are, especially at math.

Trump has a 10% chance of winning. That's the equivalent of a 10-point underdog winning in the NFL.

Do 10-point dogs win in the NFL? Yes. About 1 in every 10 games.

So believing that polls (or poll aggregators, such as 538) are "all wrong" or "always wrong" is about as retarded as believing Vegas is "all wrong" or "always wrong" on sports betting when picking winners based on the spread.

It's like the Trump cultists betting that the 10-point dog will always win.

A 10-point underdog does not have a 1 in 10 chance of winning. You clearly have no idea what you are talking about.

It's fake Jake, of course he has no idea what he's talking about.

 

[AntonToo]

It didn't work last time...which gave us a 4.4 error in the state polling...and in my opinion we're about to see a that error repeated...because they, like you, can't see that it's the model isn't working.

Model was changed since 2016. If same models were used Biden would be up by even more.

But even assuming models being off by just as much as in 2016...Biden still wins, as he is currently outperforming Clinton.

The only way Trump wins is if polls are MORE wrong than they were in 2016 and the only way I see that happening is that there are now enough total degenerates on the right spending their time lying to polsters.

Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016

To borrow from Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman, “I’ve seen enough.” No, I don’t know who’s going to win the election. According to our forecast, Presiden…

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Faun]

It didn't work last time...which gave us a 4.4 error in the state polling...and in my opinion we're about to see a that error repeated...because they, like you, can't see that it's the model isn't working.

Model was changed since 2016. If same models were used Biden would be up by even more.

But even assuming models being off by just as much as in 2016...Biden still wins, as he is currently outperforming Clinton.

The only way Trump wins is if polls are MORE wrong than they were in 2016 and the only way I see that happening is that there are now enough total degenerates on the right spending their time lying to polsters.

Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016

To borrow from Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman, “I’ve seen enough.” No, I don’t know who’s going to win the election. According to our forecast, Presiden…

fivethirtyeight.com

That's not the only thing that can throw off the polls. Voting by mail will too as Democrats are voting by mail more than Republicans and many mail in ballots won't count for a variety of reasons.

 

[Tom8700]

Well Just 2 years ago he gave the Democrats a 70 percent Chance of winning governor in Florida. Hast this Guy ever been right about anything?

 

[TheParser]

I'm surprised that Mr. Silver gives our courageous President even a 10% chance of winning.

I give him a 0% chance.

I shall not be watching the returns tomorrow night.

It would be too painful.

To think that Americans are about to hand the keys of the Executive Mansion to the party that abetted all the horrific rioting & looting & statue toppling this summer is too much to endure.

FATE really is, indeed, angry with the United States of America.

 

[toobfreak]

Here's how retarded the Trump cultists are, especially at math.
Trump has a 10% chance of winning. That's the equivalent of a 10-point underdog winning in the NFL.
Do 10-point dogs win in the NFL? Yes. About 1 in every 10 games.
So believing that polls (or poll aggregators, such as 538) are "all wrong" or "always wrong" is about as retarded as believing Vegas is "all wrong" or "always wrong" on sports betting when picking winners based on the spread.
It's like the Trump cultists betting that the 10-point dog will always win.

^^^^^ And that my friends is what is called a beautiful rationalization in the adult world.

They find it more credible to believe Trump was just a one-time fluke while giving a three time senile, balding loser with a half century presiding over the worst in government who makes up credentials, get red-faced angry when crossed, confused and clouded half the time and whom can't draw 50 people to a rally a 90% chance of winning!

 

[JimBowie1958]

Mail-in Voting Will Not Prevent a Trump Victory

Most people supporting President Trump in this election are confident that he will get more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016, but they fear that fraudulent mail-in ballots will steal or delay the election results. After analyzing state voting laws -...

www.americanthinker.com

the data shows that Trump is likely keep all his 2016 states and win Minnesota and New Hampshire. Additionally, it is highly likely that Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia are in play. This could land him 35 states and an overwhelming victory in the popular vote. Here is why:​

• Republican Support: 77% (2016) vs. 96% (projected 2020). That's 10,000,000 votes!​

• Evangelical Christians: 81% (2016) vs. 90% (projected 2020)​

• Hispanics: 28% (2016) vs. 36.5% (projected in 2020). A potential swing of 8.8 million from 2016.​

• Catholics: 45% (2016) vs. 53% (projected 2020). A potential swing of 12.4 million votes from 2016.​

• Black vote: 8% (2016) vs. 15% (projected 2020). A potential swing of 6.8 million votes from 2016.​

Any of these projections coming half-true would guarantee the President a victory. A combination would lead to a landslide.​

​

 

[Snouter]

The idiot Nate Silverstein predicted Crooked Hillary would win in a landslide. The opposite happened. Why is anyone citing this idiot?

 

[JimBowie1958]

The idiot Nate Silverstein predicted Crooked Hillary would win in a landslide. The opposite happened. Why is anyone citing this idiot?

Similar minds think alike?

 

[Tom8700]

Interesting Side Note.Over the last 6 weeks Trump's approval Rating at 538 has climbed by 4 Points. IT IS Now Close to the pre Corona Level again when Trump was in a good Position according to the polls. Yet although this surge in populatity is Happening it has ZERO effect in the Mainstream polls and 538s prediction. This is odd to say the least and simply doesn't add Up. Some people are in for a very very hard reality Check tomorrow.