Nate Silver- only 10% chance Trump wins

[LordBrownTrout]

Nate Silver had Hillary at %71.4 in 2016.

Right. The equivalent if a 4-point favorite in the NFL.

If a 4-point favorite in the NFL loses, do you believe that the Vegas oddsmakers are "all wrong?"

A ten point dog is not the equivalent of winning once in ten. Thats just how the money is moving. And it becomes even more skewed when the pollsters obtain information from a demographic that favors less/more heavily on one side.

 

[JimBowie1958]

I mean that a 10-point underdog has a 10% chance of winning outright.

That is not what a spread means, doofus.

Please stop being stupid. Aren't you a software engineer or something? Usually you guys aren't this dumb about math.

If you ask the question, which team is going to win? And you look at a 10-point favorite and ask the same question, about 90% of the time, the 10-point spread wins outright.

But I know that you are deep, deep, deep into the cult. You demonstrated that when you were arguing that "Trump really didn't say that" when you watched him say exactly that. lol

Cultists are gonna cult.

ROFLMAO, I cant believe you are this stupid.

The spread comes from the point advantage bookies have to use to get the bets even for one outcome vrs the other, to 'make book' and not lose their ass on the outcome.

It has nothing to do with the chance of one side winning or not.

roflmao

 

[Toro]

It didn't work last time...which gave us a 4.4 error in the state polling...and in my opinion we're about to see a that error repeated...because they, like you, can't see that it's the model isn't working.

Why?

 

[Toro]

ROFLMAO, I cant believe you are this stupid.

The spread comes from the point advantage bookies have to use to get the bets even for one outcome vrs the other, to 'make book' and not lose their ass on the outcome.

It has nothing to do with the chance of one side winning or not.

roflmao

The reason for the point spread is irrelevant. What matters is the point spread.

Cultists are gonna cult.

 

[JimBowie1958]

The reason for the point spread is irrelevant. What matters is the point spread.

Lol, no, it is not irrelevant as tow hat the spread means, what it means in terms of odds or the math behind it.

I have really lost a lot of respect for you, Toro.

I thought you were more informed and educated than this, Jeebus.

Edit: found this Toro, hope it helps you some, friend.

 

[BlackSand]

ROFLMAO, I cant believe you are this stupid.

...

He's not stupid ... You may be if you keep chasing that bait like you are going to get something to eat ...
Arguing about hypothetical situations, where the real numbers don't matter, and there are no consequence for being wrong, is not an intellectual pursuit.

.

 

[Toro]

The reason for the point spread is irrelevant. What matters is the point spread.

Lol, no, it is not irrelevant as tow hat the spread means, what it means in terms of odds or the math behind it.

I have really lost a lot of respect for you, Toro.

i thought you were more informed and educated than this, Jeebus.

You assume you know more about the market than the market.

I doubt you've made a lot of money betting.

 

[Toro]

FTR there are biases in sports betting.

This is caused by people emotionally betting on their favorite team. For example, because there are a lot of Chicagoans betting on the Bears in Vegas, there tends to be a skew towards the Bears on individual game lines.

But these biases are not particularly significant in aggregate. There are thousands of observations on sports lines, and these biases tend to sum up to be ~<1 point per game in total.

 

[JimBowie1958]

ROFLMAO, I cant believe you are this stupid.
...

He's not stupid ... You may be if you keep chasing that bait like you are going to get something to eat ...
Arguing about hypothetical situations, where the real numbers don't matter, and there are no consequence for being wrong, is not an intellectual pursuit.

Toro is totally wrong about what a spread means to a football game, and I have tried several different ways to explain it to him, but he wont give it the thought necessary to grasp the point.

When ignorance is willful it is the result of stupidity not lack of knowledge.

This quote shows he does not understand how spreads work.

I mean that a 10-point underdog has a 10% chance of winning outright.
I participate in an elimination pool where we pick the outright winner. A 10-point dog wins roughly 10% of the time.

 

[Toro]

The reason for the point spread is irrelevant. What matters is the point spread.

Lol, no, it is not irrelevant as tow hat the spread means, what it means in terms of odds or the math behind it.

I have really lost a lot of respect for you, Toro.

i thought you were more informed and educated than this, Jeebus.

Edit: found this Toro, hop[e it helps you some, friend.

View attachment 409845

Oh, thanks Jim. 90% v 84% is a HUGE difference! lol

 

[Toro]

FTR that data set is up to 2014. The data set I was referencing was 10 years up to 2018, and it was coalated by the owner of the group.

I say "90%" when it could be 88% or 92%. Personally, I don't really care if the probability difference of an outcome is 86% or 90%. That's basically the same as far as I'm concerned.

What I care about is if the probability has wide differences, i.e. 56% v 90%.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Oh, thanks Jim. 90% v 84% is a HUGE difference! lol

An underdog with a 10 point spread against them is not a 10% chance of winning. It is 16%.

Do you think an underdog at -5 spread only has a 5% chance of winning?

I guess an underdog with a -1 spread only has a 1% chance of winning, lol.

 

[Arresmillao]

Here's how retarded the Trump cultists are, especially at math.

Trump has a 10% chance of winning. That's the equivalent of a 10-point underdog winning in the NFL.

Do 10-point dogs win in the NFL? Yes. About 1 in every 10 games.

So believing that polls (or poll aggregators, such as 538) are "all wrong" or "always wrong" is about as retarded as believing Vegas is "all wrong" or "always wrong" on sports betting when picking winners based on the spread.

It's like the Trump cultists betting that the 10-point dog will always win.

Here is h ow retarded gullible libtards are at understanding economics and how they work.

If 56% of the voters think that they are better off than 4 years ago, they dont vote the incumbent out, doofus.

View attachment 409839

deplorable rationale very cute; pussygrabber losing all battleground states, and tied in TX. conclusion: pussygrabber wins... haa ha ha ha

 

[Zander]

Nate Silver had Hillary at %71.4 in 2016.

Right. The equivalent if a 4-point favorite in the NFL.

If a 4-point favorite in the NFL loses, do you believe that the Vegas oddsmakers are "all wrong?"

Sorry Toro, you can't just pull numbers our of your ass.

 

[two_iron]

These are the hapless fuckups that can't count how many heads are under a sign... in an Iowa cornfield.

They use "chick math" where 10 + 10 = 1010

Their jooboy leader:

 

[BlackSand]

Toro is totally wrong about what a spread means to a football game, and I have tried several different ways to explain it to him, but he wont give it the thought necessary to grasp the point.

When ignorance is willful it is the result of stupidity not lack of knowledge.

This quote shows he does not understand how spreads work.

I don't know if he knows how spreads work or not.
I never was that much into betting on games anyway.

However ... I know Toro, and have been around long enough to learn how to enjoy the way he plays ball ...

.

 

[Toro]

Oh, thanks Jim. 90% v 84% is a HUGE difference! lol

An underdog with a 10 point spread against them is not a 10% chance of winning. It is 16%.

Do you think an underdog at -5 spread only has a 5% chance of winning?

I guess an underdog with a -1 spread only has a 1% chance of winning, lol.

No, a -1 point-spread has about a 48% chance of winning if IIRC.

A -2 point-spread has about a 42% chance of winning if IIRC.

Etc, etc.

 

[Toro]

These are the hapless fuckups that can't count how many heads are under a sign... in an Iowa cornfield.

They use "chick math" where 10 + 10 = 1010

Their jooboy leader:

Oh, a brain-dead anti-semite.

Thanks for that, two-IQ iron.

 

[Toro]

Sorry Toro, you can't just pull numbers our of your ass.

I'm not.

But keep arguing about your "feels"

 

[JimBowie1958]

Oh, thanks Jim. 90% v 84% is a HUGE difference! lol

I used to play blackjack a whole bunch, and a 6% difference would draw blackjack players from across the world, dude.

You are not a serious gambler I can see that.