MODELS predicted Ian's landfall within 5 miles, 5 days out

[CrusaderFrank]

Don't have a heavy heart. The people of Florida have been brought back down to earth and climate science reality.

That will undoubtedly lead many to make the move of extricating themselves from the horror that comes every year from now on..

Prior to the invention of the internal combustion engine, Florida and the Caribbean never had a single hurricane!

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The story to which I linked in the OP made the claim that NOAA's prediction was accurate 5 days out. It was quite obvious in the pseudo animation of track graphics the article itself provided (ie, it required no "digging") that the predicted landfall was all over the place as the storm progressed. My point was that models are not the worthless crap AGW deniers constantly claim and I still firmly stand by that assertion.

Are you saying that from now on hurricane tracks will be accurately predicted 5 days out to within 5 miles?

 

[JoeMoma]

How about the point that "MODELS predicted Ian's landfall within 5 miles, 5 days out"?

Re-read the statement of mine you quoted. Enough said.

 

[jc456]

If there are several different predictions by various models over a number of days, that kind of invalidates the point of one model seemingly being very accurate 5 days out. That said, weather models have improved greatly over the years. IMO they are very accurate 2 to 3 days out and extremely accurate one day out.

They are extremely accurate when it is happening. hahahaahahahaahahahahaha. All this nonsense about modeling this and that. The fact was Tampa Bay was the target initially. It's why the Tampa Bay Bucs went to Miami to practice. Reality seems to always upset modeling.

 

[jc456]

How about the point that "MODELS predicted Ian's landfall within 5 miles, 5 days out"?

I can't help thinking everyone already knows that predicting hurricane paths five days out is a crapshoot. Or they should. Meteorologists regularly warn people to not make final plans based upon such admittedly sketchy predictions. From the start I've been reading "the point" as "Holy shit, at one point we actually got within 5 miles this time!"

how about they didn't. Tampa Bay is not five miles away from Fort Myers.

 

[Flash]

The story to which I linked in the OP made the claim that NOAA's prediction was accurate 5 days out. It was quite obvious in the pseudo animation of track graphics the article itself provided (ie, it required no "digging") that the predicted landfall was all over the place as the storm progressed. My point was that models are not the worthless crap AGW deniers constantly claim and I still firmly stand by that assertion.

You are really stupid.

NOAA uses the GFS model. It is their model. Sometimes it is call "the American Model" It was wrong. NOAA was wrong.

Five days out GFS had Ivan way out in the Gulf and hitting North Florida as a Cat I.

The EURO model had it coming in at Tampa and was much more accurate, although it wound up hitting 100 miles south of Tampa.

We Floridians were hoping the GFS model was right. A Cat 1 hurricane hitting North Florida would be a lot less devastating than a Cat IV hitting the populated West Coast of Florida.

NOAA is like all government bureaucracies. It is run by idiot bureaucrats that don't know their ass from a hole in the ground. Look how they got caught fabricating climate data back when Obama was President and they are doing the same thing under Potatohead. Last month it was revealed the idiots weren't even using their own procedures for collecting temperature data.

Here is a page showing how far off the GFS model was for Ivan on Sept 23.

 

[jc456]

You are really stupid.

NOAA uses the GFS model. It is their model. Sometimes it is call "the American Model" It was wrong. NOAA was wrong.

Five days out GFS had Ivan way out in the Gulf and hitting North Florida as a Cat I.

The EURO model had it coming in at Tampa and was much more accurate, although it wound up hitting 100 miles south of Tampa.

We Floridians were hoping the GFS model was right. A Cat 1 hurricane hitting North Florida would be a lot less devastating than a Cat IV hitting the populated West Coast of Florida.

NOAA is like all government bureaucracies. It is run by idiot bureaucrats that don't know their ass from a hole in the ground. Look how they got caught fabricating climate data back when Obama was President and they are doing the same thing under Potatohead. Last month it was revealed the idiots weren't even using their own procedures for collecting temperature data.

Here is a page showing how far off the GFS model was for Ivan on Sept 23.

Fk dude, they didn't know after it cleared Cuba.

 

[JoeMoma]

They are extremely accurate when it is happening. hahahaahahahaahahahahaha. All this nonsense about modeling this and that. The fact was Tampa Bay was the target initially. It's why the Tampa Bay Bucs went to Miami to practice. Reality seems to always upset modeling.

Models have their place and are useful for predicting what might happen.

 

[Flash]

Fk dude, they didn't know after it cleared Cuba.

The point is that NOAA's GFS model had it going into North Florida. Not where Crick claimed in the OP.

NOAA got it wrong. Meanwhile the EURO model got it right.

 

[Flash]

Models have their place and are useful for predicting what might happen.

Some models are better than others. NOAA's GFS model was very wrong.

 

[Crick]

Some models are better than others. NOAA's GFS model was very wrong.

On this occasion. And you're being subjective. "Very wrong" could be predicting that the Ian would hit Venezuela. Tampa still experienced winds sufficient to drain the whole fucking bay. That's not exactly "in the clear".

 

[Grumblenuts]

how about they didn't. Tampa Bay is not five miles away from Fort Myers.

So? Neither is Cayo Costa. You deniers don't actually read much, huh?

Looking back at the forecast, the landfall location, Cayo Costa, was in the forecast cone for all the forecasts given, according to CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller.

Miller also noted that the forecast pegged Ian’s landfall (as a major hurricane also) within 5 miles of its eventual landfall location a full 120 hours in advance – that’s pretty remarkable given how unreliable forecasts can be at the five-day mark and beyond.

Now:

Enough said.

 

[jc456]

So? Neither is Cayo Costa. You deniers don't actually read much, huh

Tampa bay Bucs were told it was going to hit Tampa bay. I don’t care what you think

 

[Crick]

Tampa bay Bucs were told it was going to hit Tampa bay. I don’t care what you think

God you're worthless. And if you didn't care what he thought, you wouldn't respond. But you did so you do so you're a fucking liar to boot.

 

[jc456]

God you're worthless. And if you didn't care what he thought, you wouldn't respond. But you did so you do so you're a fucking liar to boot.

You are confused, there’s more than him on here and I provided information to share with all. He can kiss my butt

 

[Crick]

You are confused, there’s more than him on here and I provided information to share with all. He can kiss my butt

When you said "I don't care what you think" you were addressing a specific individual. Please put some more thought into your posts here.

 

[Faun]

Directly from the OP link (still!):

Have you noticed yet that it's not just from "fake news CNN" but a highly active, respected meteorologist? Do you suppose they just publish such stories instantly or do they need to be reviewed first by at least one editor? "an ounce of truth"? Methinks you got triggered too easily in this case.

Let's see.. Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday.. I count five days?

Oh? And how many days do you count here ...

 

[martybegan]

NOAA, evaluating the various models, provided a single predicted track. That track's landfall was within 5 miles of actual, 5 days out.

And that track still had a bubble of uncertainty as wide as half the State of Florida.

 

[Crick]

And that track still had a bubble of uncertainty as wide as half the State of Florida.

Do you reject all GCM climate models out of hand?

 

[Billy_Bob]

Just a dig for all you deniers who think models can't tell their ass from a hole in the ground.

Ian's 5-day forecast predicted landfall only 5 miles from actual location | CNN

It's difficult to know where to start this morning. I've been reflecting all weekend, and my heart is heavy for the people in Florida.

www.cnn.com

Which model? and what was the margin of error? At five days the MOE was over 590 miles wide. This is what is known as a poke and hope. IF you look at models individually, they didn't get this right at all. This was the average of the ensembles.