MODELS predicted Ian's landfall within 5 miles, 5 days out

[Crick]

Just a dig for all you deniers who think models can't tell their ass from a hole in the ground.

Ian's 5-day forecast predicted landfall only 5 miles from actual location | CNN

It's difficult to know where to start this morning. I've been reflecting all weekend, and my heart is heavy for the people in Florida.

www.cnn.com

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

$76 trillion!!!

 

[Donald H]

Just a dig for all you deniers who think models can't tell their ass from a hole in the ground.

Ian's 5-day forecast predicted landfall only 5 miles from actual location | CNN

It's difficult to know where to start this morning. I've been reflecting all weekend, and my heart is heavy for the people in Florida.

www.cnn.com

Don't have a heavy heart. The people of Florida have been brought back down to earth and climate science reality.

That will undoubtedly lead many to make the move of extricating themselves from the horror that comes every year from now on..

 

[Meister]

Just a dig for all you deniers who think models can't tell their ass from a hole in the ground.

Ian's 5-day forecast predicted landfall only 5 miles from actual location | CNN

It's difficult to know where to start this morning. I've been reflecting all weekend, and my heart is heavy for the people in Florida.

www.cnn.com

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. sheesh

 

[JoeMoma]

Models need to be tested against reality and refined to become good predictors (of reality).

 

[HereWeGoAgain]

Just a dig for all you deniers who think models can't tell their ass from a hole in the ground.

Ian's 5-day forecast predicted landfall only 5 miles from actual location | CNN

It's difficult to know where to start this morning. I've been reflecting all weekend, and my heart is heavy for the people in Florida.

www.cnn.com

Yeah....thats why they have those spaghetti models that give you 4 or 5 different paths.
No matter what you say predicting a hurricane's path is still guess work.

 

[Flash]

Just a dig for all you deniers who think models can't tell their ass from a hole in the ground.

Ian's 5-day forecast predicted landfall only 5 miles from actual location | CNN

It's difficult to know where to start this morning. I've been reflecting all weekend, and my heart is heavy for the people in Florida.

www.cnn.com

You are confused about this.

Being near the target I followed the models very closely for more than a week before it hit.

The GFS model had it coming far west, hitting the panhandle.

The Euro model had it coming into Central Florida up the mouth of Tampa Bay and over my house.

As time went on the Euro stayed the same. Each day the GFS model slowly moved more east.

Two days before it hit the center of the cone was still aimed at Tampa.

When it actually hit it was more east and more south than the center of the cone. In fact it was near the edge of the model cone.

Neither the GFS or the Euro accurately predicted landfall until about 12 hours before landfall. It was not the NOAA modeling analysis that got the landfall close but the local radar weather people. Seeing that was such a slow moving system that was not a good prediction.

The models messed up landfall with Ian the same as they did with Irma and Charley.

The cone was right but it was a big area.

Mother Nature is a bitch and those clowns at NOAA get things wrong as much as they get it right.

Of course they have been caught fabricating climate change data and even last month admitted they don't even follow their own procedures on taking temperature readings so they have no credibility on anything.

 

[toobfreak]

MODELS predicted Ian's landfall within 5 miles, 5 days out​

Predicting landfall was the easiest part.

Just a dig for all you deniers who think models can't tell their ass from a hole in the ground.

I followed Ian's actual path and rate of advance closely compared to what the model showed, and while the path wasn't too far off, the hurricane ended up moving much faster than forecast that by Thursday afternoon, it was a already a day ahead already where the model expected it a day later on FRIDAY afternoon. And the disparity just grew worse with time.

So, only a C+ for the model.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

You are confused about this.

Being near the target I followed the models very closely for more than a week before it hit.

The GFS model had it coming far west, hitting the panhandle.

The Euro model had it coming into Central Florida up the mouth of Tampa Bay and over my house.

As time went on the Euro stayed the same. Each day the GFS model slowly moved more east.

Two days before it hit the center of the cone was still aimed at Tampa.

When it actually hit it was more east and more south than the center of the cone. In fact it was near the edge of the model cone.

Neither the GFS or the Euro accurately predicted landfall until about 12 hours before landfall. It was not the NOAA modeling analysis that got the landfall close but the local radar weather people. Seeing that was such a slow moving system that was not a good prediction.

The models messed up landfall with Ian the same as they did with Irma and Charley.

The cone was right but it was a big area.

Mother Nature is a bitch and those clowns at NOAA get things wrong as much as they get it right.

Of course they have been caught fabricating climate change data and even last month admitted they don't even follow their own procedures on taking temperature readings so they have no credibility on anything.

You don't understand!!!!

$76 trillion.

Or your grandchildren will curse your name.

 

[TroglocratsRdumb]

the thing that people need to understand about the crazy climate cult is that no amount of science and reality will ever enlighten them
hurricanes in the gulf have been going on for hundreds of thousands of years
they were occurring long before modern man and the industrial revolution
regulations and taxes can't change that truth

 

[Faun]

Just a dig for all you deniers who think models can't tell their ass from a hole in the ground.

Ian's 5-day forecast predicted landfall only 5 miles from actual location | CNN

It's difficult to know where to start this morning. I've been reflecting all weekend, and my heart is heavy for the people in Florida.

www.cnn.com

CNN is fake news.

In reality, the 5 day forecast was off by 300 miles...

 

[Rambunctious]

Our forecasters are programmed to use just certain models... they shouldn't do that... in a situation as this all known possible tracks should be forecasted and the public should know what's coming... there would still be thousands of folks determined to ride it out....

 

[Calypso Jones]

even a stopped watch is right twice every 24 hours. They somehow, as you say, got it right, ONCE and they're supposed to have all their cred back now? LOLOL Long time Floridians don't pay any attention to these attention whores.

 

[Faun]

even a stopped watch is right twice every 24 hours. They somehow, as you say, got it right, ONCE and they're supposed to have all their cred back now? LOLOL Long time Floridians don't pay any attention to these attention whores.

You must not be from Florida then. I'm a long time Floridian as are most of my family and friends here. We pay very close attention to those forecasts. I'm checking them the minute they come out once a storm is close enough that the NOAA starts releasing data every 3 hours; to determine what plans we need to make.

 

[Crick]

$76 trillion!!!

Do you have anything actually on topic to say Todd?

 

[Crick]

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. sheesh

The accuracy of hurricane track forecasts has been steadily improving for years now and these days are quite accurate. Your comment simply does not apply.

 

[Crick]

Models need to be tested against reality and refined to become good predictors (of reality).

These are constantly tested and constantly refined. What's your point?

 

[Crick]

Yeah....thats why they have those spaghetti models that give you 4 or 5 different paths.
No matter what you say predicting a hurricane's path is still guess work.

The accuracy of hurricane prediction for the last 4 or 5 seasons is far, far, far beyond any fucking guesswork. You don't seem to know what you're talking about.

 

[Crick]

You are confused about this.

Being near the target I followed the models very closely for more than a week before it hit.

The GFS model had it coming far west, hitting the panhandle.

The Euro model had it coming into Central Florida up the mouth of Tampa Bay and over my house.

As time went on the Euro stayed the same. Each day the GFS model slowly moved more east.

Two days before it hit the center of the cone was still aimed at Tampa.

When it actually hit it was more east and more south than the center of the cone. In fact it was near the edge of the model cone.

Neither the GFS or the Euro accurately predicted landfall until about 12 hours before landfall. It was not the NOAA modeling analysis that got the landfall close but the local radar weather people. Seeing that was such a slow moving system that was not a good prediction.

The models messed up landfall with Ian the same as they did with Irma and Charley.

The cone was right but it was a big area.

Mother Nature is a bitch and those clowns at NOAA get things wrong as much as they get it right.

Of course they have been caught fabricating climate change data and even last month admitted they don't even follow their own procedures on taking temperature readings so they have no credibility on anything.

NOAA, evaluating the various models, provided a single predicted track. That track's landfall was within 5 miles of actual, 5 days out.

 

[Flash]

The accuracy of hurricane track forecasts has been steadily improving for years now and these days are quite accurate. Your comment simply does not apply.

You lied.

The models did not predict the landfall of the hurricane five days out to within five miles.

Five days out the GFS model had it way out in the Gulf. The EURO had it coming in at Tampa. Only one model of the dozens had it south of Tampa five days out and it wasn't one the two that are considered the best..

It wasn't until the local weather radars started picking it up that landfall was predicted to be like that of Hurricane Charley.

NOAA blew it.