MODELS predicted Ian's landfall within 5 miles, 5 days out

What it says is that one day before it was Tampa! DOH!

Which is what I said.

BTW, your brain isn’t intelligent enough to understand

Grumbles a moron who actually thanked a post of a fellow moron who claimed a model forecasted the storm to hit Tampa in 5 days.

You're not the sharpest marshmallow in the bag.
 
Grumbles a moron who actually thanked a post of a fellow moron who claimed a model forecasted the storm to hit Tampa in 5 days.
Who did what now? When you find yourself idiotically dismissing your allies it's time to cool your jets and reflect.
 
Which is what I said.



Grumbles a moron who actually thanked a post of a fellow moron who claimed a model forecasted the storm to hit Tampa in 5 days.

You're not the sharpest marshmallow in the bag.
Up to one day until! See, your brain can’t handle the math
 
Who did what now? When you find yourself idiotically dismissing your allies it's time to cool your jets and reflect.

A moron claimed the Bucs announced they were going to practice in Miami because a model predicted the storm would hit Tampa Bay in 5 days.

There was no such model.

Tampa Bay made that announcement one day before Ian hit Florida. Why do you think those idiots are my "allies?"
 
A moron claimed the Bucs announced they were going to practice in Miami because a model predicted the storm would hit Tampa Bay in 5 days.

There was no such model.

Tampa Bay made that announcement one day before Ian hit Florida. Why do you think those idiots are my "allies?"
Why did the Bucs think it would hit Tampa up to one day before? Come on genius
 
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CNN is fake news.

In reality, the 5 day forecast was off by 300 miles...

BHR-Z-Hurricane-01.jpg
The forecast I saw said Ft. Meyers would take it on the chin, and it did.
 
A moron claimed the Bucs announced they were going to practice in Miami because a model predicted the storm would hit Tampa Bay in 5 days.

There was no such model.

Tampa Bay made that announcement one day before Ian hit Florida. Why do you think those idiots are my "allies?"
Fine, so what's with "Grumbles a moron"? Which "moron" did I allegedly thank?
 
Why did the Bucs think it would Tampa up to one day before? Come on genius

:icon_rolleyes:

Imbecile, 5 days before the storm hit, it was predicted to go into the Panhandle, not Tampa. Is this too complicated for ya?

FdgsTFlXoAE47rI.png
 
:icon_rolleyes:

Imbecile, 5 days before the storm hit, it was predicted to go into the Panhandle, not Tampa. Is this too complicated for ya?

FdgsTFlXoAE47rI.png

You've posted the 72-hour forecast track ... go back to Advisory 2's forecast discussion, at the very bottom are the forecasted coordinates ... NHC put no confidence in that forecast track ...

Hurricanes react to land masses in strange and unpredictable ways ... anything after Tuesday morning's crossing of Cuba was still in the air as far as good science could say ...

Maybe I'm just a West Coast wussy, but a MURDER-cane that close would have me soiling my pants ... how can you people live there? ...
 
The forecast I saw said Ft. Meyers would take it on the chin, and it did.

Then they said the Panhandle.

Then they said Tampa.

Then they said Fort Meyers again.

Sorry, but if you predict it's going to hit half of the west coast... and then it hits an area on the west coast, no one should be bragging they accurately predicted where it would hit the west coast.

That would be like me betting $100, even odds, the Bucs would lose by at least 2... then making another such bet they would lose by at least 7... then making a third such bet they would lose by at least 14... then bragging how close I called it when they lose by 2.
 
Then they said the Panhandle.

Then they said Tampa.

Then they said Fort Meyers again.

Sorry, but if you predict it's going to hit half of the west coast... and then it hits an area on the west coast, no one should be bragging they accurately predicted where it would hit the west coast.

That would be like me betting $100, even odds, the Bucs would lose by at least 2... then making another such bet they would lose by at least 7... then making a third such bet they would lose by at least 14... then bragging how close I called it when they lose by 2.
I'm a Fl resident. (East coast)
I was watching. (way out of any cone/any probability but supplied up Friday AM. Stores were still empty here.)
Tampa was Ground Zero the longest.
They were hoping it would deflect to the less serious panhandle as a pleasant longshot.

As I watched the hurricane move EAST along the North coast of Cuba, I realized Tampa was too far up.
I was yelling at the Weather Channel!!
It was going to hit further South and maybe even cross Florida far enough South (of Lake Okeechobee), to affect those of us on the East coast South of West Palm Beach.
Thankfully it didn't go any further.
Geometry was always my best subject.
`
 
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Then they said the Panhandle.

Then they said Tampa.

Then they said Fort Meyers again.

Sorry, but if you predict it's going to hit half of the west coast... and then it hits an area on the west coast, no one should be bragging they accurately predicted where it would hit the west coast.

That would be like me betting $100, even odds, the Bucs would lose by at least 2... then making another such bet they would lose by at least 7... then making a third such bet they would lose by at least 14... then bragging how close I called it when they lose by 2.
As I stated in Post #1, I put this up as a dig at deniers who reject any climate model out of hand. However, given the variability that Ian's projected track took as it approached the state, I can see now that starting this thread was a mistake. I allowed myself to be led on by the headline and did not think hard enough about what the track history actually showed. Good enough?
 
You've posted the 72-hour forecast track ... go back to Advisory 2's forecast discussion, at the very bottom are the forecasted coordinates ... NHC put no confidence in that forecast track ...

Hurricanes react to land masses in strange and unpredictable ways ... anything after Tuesday morning's crossing of Cuba was still in the air as far as good science could say ...

Maybe I'm just a West Coast wussy, but a MURDER-cane that close would have me soiling my pants ... how can you people live there? ...

I'm used to it. Been through a bunch of them. Got out of the way of a couple of them. Had one drop a tree on my roof. That actually worked out nicely as it paid for a new roof.
 
As I stated in Post #1, I put this up as a dig at deniers who reject any climate model out of hand. However, given the variability that Ian's projected track took as it approached the state, I can see now that starting this thread was a mistake. I allowed myself to be led on by the headline and did not think hard enough about what the track history actually showed. Good enough?

Fine by me, but it's not really up to me.
 
Really, moron? :p

Yes, idiot, really. It's like...

Slobbers a moron...

Hisses a moron...

Cries a moron...

Grumbles a moron...

If I was calling you a moron, I would have said, Grumble's a moron.

The former is a verb, the latter's a pronoun.

My sympathies for ya if you can't discern the difference.
 
As I stated in Post #1, I put this up as a dig at deniers who reject any climate model out of hand. However, given the variability that Ian's projected track took as it approached the state, I can see now that starting this thread was a mistake. I allowed myself to be led on by the headline and did not think hard enough about what the track history actually showed. Good enough?

First thing I did was go back 120 hours from landfall and see what the 120-hour forecast position was ... I was pleasantly astonished ...

This is a step in the right direction ... 5 days is a chunk for sure ... looks like only 36,150 more days and we can start talking climate prediction ... what we call the "867,810-hour forecast" ...
 

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