MODELS predicted Ian's landfall within 5 miles, 5 days out

[Crick]

Out loud

And what might that mean?

 

[jc456]

And what might that mean?

A response to a post?

 

[Faun]

I followed the storm as well and noted forecasters weren't really pinning themselves on the forecast models ... and they will if the models are in agreement ...

Grade B+ ... it's still a bulls-eye ... five days out !!! ...

If you wanna know where the storm is going, evacuate when Jim Cantore shows up.

 

[Faun]

As someone that LIVES in Fort Myers let me tell you quite clearly the "models" had Ian hitting Tampa Bay not us until the day before it made landfall!
This one was a bitch. The death toll is going to be high because storm surge was historic. I've been through a bunch of hurricanes but this one had me worried. I'm still trying to get through to friends down here that live on Pine Island and Sanibel. Both of those islands are devastated.

Glad to see you're ok.

 

[Deplorable Yankee]

Just a dig for all you deniers who think models can't tell their ass from a hole in the ground.

Ian's 5-day forecast predicted landfall only 5 miles from actual location | CNN

It's difficult to know where to start this morning. I've been reflecting all weekend, and my heart is heavy for the people in Florida.

www.cnn.com

 

[Oldestyle]

Glad to see you're ok.

Thank you, Faun! You as well!

 

[jc456]

As someone that LIVES in Fort Myers let me tell you quite clearly the "models" had Ian hitting Tampa Bay not us until the day before it made landfall!
This one was a bitch. The death toll is going to be high because storm surge was historic. I've been through a bunch of hurricanes but this one had me worried. I'm still trying to get through to friends down here that live on Pine Island and Sanibel. Both of those islands are devastated.

Crick thinks Tampa bay is five miles from fort myers

 

[jc456]

Just a dig for all you deniers who think models can't tell their ass from a hole in the ground.

Ian's 5-day forecast predicted landfall only 5 miles from actual location | CNN

It's difficult to know where to start this morning. I've been reflecting all weekend, and my heart is heavy for the people in Florida.

www.cnn.com

That you believe that is funny

 

[Faun]

Crick thinks Tampa bay is five miles from fort myers

A pity you have no evidence of that.

 

[Crick]

A response to a post?

I didn't ask what it was, I asked what it meant?

 

[Crick]

That you believe that is funny

That you don't is pathetic but not the least bit surprising.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

That you don't is pathetic but not the least bit surprising.

Did you miss Faun's post?

 

[Oldestyle]

Crick thinks Tampa bay is five miles from fort myers

Crick needs to buy an Atlas!

 

[Faun]

Did you miss Faun's post?

View attachment 705194

So I did some digging and found there is an ounce of truth to the story. Turns out, there was an earlier 5-day forecast that was very close...

But that was replaced with the one I posted earlier which came 2 days later and at the time, was the latest forecast, putting it into the Panhandle. Many folks in the Punta Gorda region would have likely felt a sense, albeit brief, of relief.

Then they shifted their forecast again with a two day warning until it hit (it actually hit a day before that); and now it was aimed at the Tampa/St. Pete area...

But an even earlier forecast had it heading towards Central America...

But despite being all over the map, the closer they get, the more accurate they are. And while they are sometimes off, sometime wildly until it's too late to evacuate everyone, like Katrina, more often than that, they're close enough to save lives. After going through Hurricane Andrew, Neither my wife nor I will ever go through even a cat 3 or higher ever again. We even once drove to Long Boat Key to avoid one heading our way which fortunately, veered away at the last minute and missed SE Florida, going up the Atlantic instead. So we had a relaxing vacay instead. Either way, we were safe.

Anyone who flat out ignores them is just plain stupid. Case in point, there's one now out there following a very similar path as Ian. It's currently predicted to head towards Honduras, but who knows. In the wake of Ian, you can bet a lot of people are watching this one closely...

 

[Flash]

That's what hindcasting is for.

You lied about the NOAA getting the modeling right five day out.

NOAA's prediction model is GFS.

Five day out GFS had the hurricane way out in the Gulf and hitting North Florida.

NOAA ain't worth shit.

You are always confused about these things.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Just a dig for all you deniers who think models can't tell their ass from a hole in the ground.

Ian's 5-day forecast predicted landfall only 5 miles from actual location | CNN

It's difficult to know where to start this morning. I've been reflecting all weekend, and my heart is heavy for the people in Florida.

www.cnn.com

So you're going on record that's the new normal?

Is that just for hurricanes or all longterm weather forecasts?

 

[Grumblenuts]

So I did some digging and found there is an ounce of truth to the story. Turns out, there was an earlier 5-day forecast that was very close...

Directly from the OP link (still!):

By Jennifer Gray, CNN meteorologist
Published 1:06 PM EDT, Mon October 3, 2022

Have you noticed yet that it's not just from "fake news CNN" but a highly active, respected meteorologist? Do you suppose they just publish such stories instantly or do they need to be reviewed first by at least one editor? "an ounce of truth"? Methinks you got triggered too easily in this case.

Let's see.. Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday.. I count five days?

 

[JoeMoma]

Directly from the OP link (still!):

Have you noticed yet that it's not just from "fake news CNN" but a highly active, respected meteorologist? Do you suppose they just publish such stories instantly or do they need to be reviewed first by at least one editor? "an ounce of truth"? Methinks you got triggered too easily in this case.

Let's see.. Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday.. I count five days?

If there are several different predictions by various models over a number of days, that kind of invalidates the point of one model seemingly being very accurate 5 days out. That said, weather models have improved greatly over the years. IMO they are very accurate 2 to 3 days out and extremely accurate one day out.

 

[Crick]

You lied about the NOAA getting the modeling right five day out.

NOAA's prediction model is GFS.

Five day out GFS had the hurricane way out in the Gulf and hitting North Florida.

NOAA ain't worth shit.

You are always confused about these things.

The story to which I linked in the OP made the claim that NOAA's prediction was accurate 5 days out. It was quite obvious in the pseudo animation of track graphics the article itself provided (ie, it required no "digging") that the predicted landfall was all over the place as the storm progressed. My point was that models are not the worthless crap AGW deniers constantly claim and I still firmly stand by that assertion. The habit many of you have of rejecting outright any conclusion based on model results is simply not supported by the facts.

 

[Grumblenuts]

If there are several different predictions by various models over a number of days, that kind of invalidates the point of one model seemingly being very accurate 5 days out.

How about the point that "MODELS predicted Ian's landfall within 5 miles, 5 days out"?

It was actually just one published forecast of the hurricane's path. Neither "one model" nor "various" ones.

I can't help thinking everyone already knows that predicting hurricane paths five days out is a crapshoot. Or they should. Meteorologists regularly warn people to not make final plans based upon such admittedly sketchy predictions. From the start I've been reading "the point" as "Holy shit, at one point we actually got within 5 miles this time!"