MODELS predicted Ian's landfall within 5 miles, 5 days out

[HereWeGoAgain]

The accuracy of hurricane prediction for the last 4 or 5 seasons is far, far, far beyond any fucking guesswork. You don't seem to know what you're talking about.

I live on the Gulf Coast dumbass.

 

[Calypso Jones]

You must not be from Florida then. I'm a long time Floridian as are most of my family and friends here. We pay very close attention to those forecasts. I'm checking them the minute they come out once a storm is close enough that the NOAA starts releasing data every 3 hours; to determine what plans we need to make.

you shouldn't assume..

 

[Batcat]

Just a dig for all you deniers who think models can't tell their ass from a hole in the ground.

Ian's 5-day forecast predicted landfall only 5 miles from actual location | CNN

It's difficult to know where to start this morning. I've been reflecting all weekend, and my heart is heavy for the people in Florida.

www.cnn.com

However the Tampa Bay Area was being evacuated. I was in the Hurricane Charley evacuation from Tampa Bay and it was a nightmare. Charley was back in 2004 and also was a cat 4. Lee County where the storm ended up was warned to evacuate late.

Hurricane Ian also followed a track similar to Hurricane Charlie but was a much larger storm.

One day a major Hurricane will hit Tampa Bay and the people will have ignored the evacuation orders.

 

[Flash]

NOAA, evaluating the various models, provided a single predicted track. That track's landfall was within 5 miles of actual, 5 days out.

No you are lying. Five days out the two main models that NOAA rely on had landfall far away. One had it hundreds of miles (GFS) and the EURO had it 100 miles north.

By the way Moon Bat.

I live in a middle class Florida subdivision. The idiot in the neighborhood got solar panels for his house last Spring.

Come the hurricane Wednesday night. We were not in the eye wall path but received considerable wind and rain. It knocked out the power for miles around.

The next morning we that were prepared got out our generators. You could hear them all over the neighborhood.

The idiot that got the solar panels was running a generator. He kept it running until power was restored. Even though the sun was shinning.

Solar panels are as worthless as tits on a boar hog. Terrible technology. He spent tens of thousands of dollars on the panels and it didn't even provide him with enough power for an emergency.

Solar is a joke.

 

[Meister]

The accuracy of hurricane track forecasts has been steadily improving for years now and these days are quite accurate. Your comment simply does not apply.

Nice yarn, the tracking gets dialed in as it gets closer to land. The spaghetti charts shows just how widespread the tracking is.
Nobody can predict the tracking of a hurricane for certainty, there are just too many variables.
Showing a swath for the direction of the path IS NOT, "quite accurate". It's an educated guess at best.
good grief

 

[ReinyDays]

Predicting landfall was the easiest part.




I followed Ian's actual path and rate of advance closely compared to what the model showed, and while the path wasn't too far off, the hurricane ended up moving much faster than forecast that by Thursday afternoon, it was a already a day ahead already where the model expected it a day later on FRIDAY afternoon. And the disparity just grew worse with time.

So, only a C+ for the model.


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I followed the storm as well and noted forecasters weren't really pinning themselves on the forecast models ... and they will if the models are in agreement ...

Grade B+ ... it's still a bulls-eye ... five days out !!! ...

 

[fncceo]

Just a dig for all you deniers who think models can't tell their ass from a hole in the ground.

A model that predicts the weather in five days stands a significantly better chance of being accurate than one that predicts the weather in five decades.

 

[Oldestyle]

As someone that LIVES in Fort Myers let me tell you quite clearly the "models" had Ian hitting Tampa Bay not us until the day before it made landfall!
This one was a bitch. The death toll is going to be high because storm surge was historic. I've been through a bunch of hurricanes but this one had me worried. I'm still trying to get through to friends down here that live on Pine Island and Sanibel. Both of those islands are devastated.

 

[Grumblenuts]

A butterfly flapping its wings in Guinea stands a significantly better chance of creating a hurricane than one doing the same in Florida.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Do you have anything actually on topic to say Todd?

Their projection was so accurate, we have to waste...err...invest $76 trillion on windmills.
And lots of insulation.

 

[Crick]

Their projection was so accurate, we have to waste...err...invest $76 trillion on windmills.
And lots of insulation.

I'm curious Todd, what is the source of that $76 trillion figure? I'd like to know who said that and specifically what they intend to do with that sum.

Never mind, I've found it. https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wess/wess_current/2011wess.pdf

 

[JoeMoma]

These are constantly tested and constantly refined. What's your point?

Models for hurricanes can be tested and refine frequently because there are plenty of hurricanes each year. Models to predict climate change.....not so much.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

I'm curious Todd, what is the source of that $76 trillion figure? I'd like to know who said that and specifically what they intend to do with that sum.

Never mind, I've found it. https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wess/wess_current/2011wess.pdf

Glad to help.

 

[Crick]

Models for hurricanes can be tested and refine frequently because there are plenty of hurricanes each year. Models to predict climate change.....not so much.

That's what hindcasting is for.

 

[Crick]

Glad to help.

Now that document is rather old (2011) and economically arcane. Have you ever read it?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Now that document is rather old (2011) and economically arcane. Have you ever read it?

251 pages of green blather?

Why would I bother?

 

[ReinyDays]

Models for hurricanes can be tested and refine frequently because there are plenty of hurricanes each year. Models to predict climate change.....not so much.

The dynamic models use a different algorithm than the climate models ... climate is usually crunching SB in however small they can make their unit volumes ... dynamic model, in part, rely on historical data and basic fluid motion ... my information on the dynamic side is quite dated, so someone may be correcting this ...

NHC forecasts are reviewed for accuracy ... and this information is available to the public ... "NHC Forecast Verification" --- NOAA --- June 17th, 2021

 

[Crick]

The dynamic models use a different algorithm than the climate models ... climate is usually crunching SB in however small they can make their unit volumes ... dynamic model, in part, rely on historical data and basic fluid motion ... my information on the dynamic side is quite dated, so someone may be correcting this ...

NHC forecasts are reviewed for accuracy ... and this information is available to the public ... "NHC Forecast Verification" --- NOAA --- June 17th, 2021

Slightly more complex than just Boltzman.


This image shows the concept used in climate models. Each of the thousands of 3-dimensional grid cells can be represented by mathematical equations that describe the materials in it and the way energy moves through it. The advanced equations are based on the fundamental laws of physics, fluid motion, and chemistry. To "run" a model, scientists specify the climate forcing (for instance, setting variables to represent the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere) and have powerful computers solve the equations in each cell. Results from each grid cell are passed to neighboring cells, and the equations are solved again. Repeating the process through many time steps represents the passage of time. Image source: NOAA.

 

[jc456]

Don't have a heavy heart. The people of Florida have been brought back down to earth and climate science reality.

That will undoubtedly lead many to make the move of extricating themselves from the horror that comes every year from now on..

Out loud

 

[jc456]

Tampa bay’s only five miles from ft. Meyers?