C_Clayton_Jones
Diamond Member
“Blame the election of 2016. Virtually everyone but the most die-hard Trump backers that year felt he would lose. Few forecasters thought it was possible for a candidate to lose the national popular vote by over 2 percentage points (nearly 3 million votes) and still win enough states to reach 270 electoral votes.
[…]
And where were the polls off in 2016? In those very states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Postelection studies revealed that, nationally, there was a slight over-sampling of whites with college degrees and a slight under-sampling of whites with less than four-year degrees. Since then, most pollsters have begun to correct for that, weighting white voters by level of educational attainment. Just this week, Pew Research released a report to guide state-level pollsters how to weight samples to correct for education.”
Democrats in particular are afraid to say it – and understandably so; they would be wise to consider it a very close race.
[…]
And where were the polls off in 2016? In those very states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Postelection studies revealed that, nationally, there was a slight over-sampling of whites with college degrees and a slight under-sampling of whites with less than four-year degrees. Since then, most pollsters have begun to correct for that, weighting white voters by level of educational attainment. Just this week, Pew Research released a report to guide state-level pollsters how to weight samples to correct for education.”
Democrats in particular are afraid to say it – and understandably so; they would be wise to consider it a very close race.