Many Are Afraid To Say It, but This Is Not a Close Race

[Toro]

Here's another interesting factoid - in the six swing states, AZ MI WI PA NC and FL, the percentage of non-college educated whites has declined by 2% as a share of the population since 2016. Trump won because he won PA WI and MI. The combined total he won by in those three states was 77,000. If you overlay the demographics on 2020 onto the 2016 electoral map, and assume that the share total by demographic cohorts remain constant, Hillary would have won the election.

Of course Trump won, and that's all that matters. But the point is that the demographics are working against him.

 

[gipper]

“Blame the election of 2016. Virtually everyone but the most die-hard Trump backers that year felt he would lose. Few forecasters thought it was possible for a candidate to lose the national popular vote by over 2 percentage points (nearly 3 million votes) and still win enough states to reach 270 electoral votes.
[…]
And where were the polls off in 2016? In those very states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Postelection studies revealed that, nationally, there was a slight over-sampling of whites with college degrees and a slight under-sampling of whites with less than four-year degrees. Since then, most pollsters have begun to correct for that, weighting white voters by level of educational attainment. Just this week, Pew Research released a report to guide state-level pollsters how to weight samples to correct for education.”

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/many-are-afraid-say-it-not-close-race

Democrats in particular are afraid to say it – and understandably so; they would be wise to consider it a very close race.

It shouldn’t be a close, if the we weren’t a failed state. Trump is easily beaten, but for the stupidity of the D Party. A party that proclaims it’s progressive, for the people particularly minorities, and against big money interests picks an old white racist corrupt conservative suffering with dementia.

Oh well the billionaires are happy, and after all that’s what our federal government is all about.

 

[gipper]

Here's another interesting factoid - in the six swing states, AZ MI WI PA NC and FL, the percentage of non-college educated whites has declined by 2% as a share of the population since 2016. Trump won because he won PA WI and MI. The combined total he won by in those three states was 77,000. If you overlay the demographics on 2020 onto the 2016 electoral map, and assume that the share total by demographic cohorts remain constant, Hillary would have won the election.

Of course Trump won, and that's all that matters. But the point is that the demographics are working against him.

Agree. If Don loses those three states this time, he likely loses the election. It does appear he will lose those three states, but never underestimate the stupidity and dishonesty of the D Party. They are their own worst enemy.

 

[Picaro]

The babbling about 'education levels' alone tells me the article writer is himself an ignorant uneducated dork who has no clue. Probably warmed a seat to avoid having to go to work as long as possible and never read a thing after he was socially promoted out. College degrees started being worthless as measures of education levels by the early 1970's, due to rampant grade inflation and racial quotas.

 

[Picaro]

Since then, most pollsters have begun to correct for that, weighting white voters by level of educational attainment.

The author says it all: He just doesn't see. As far as weighting voters by educational attainment, this perpetuates the myth that higher education (skills training) correlates with higher intelligence. As we have seen, some of the biggest idiots walking around have advanced degrees and some of the smartest people I've ever met were sitting on a bar stool.

Never mind that talking to democrats, most of them are idiots with their heads up their asses. Let's not even get into the masses of black people and others of low income living in public housing with not even HS diplomas and IQs of 70 who vote straight Democrat.

Yep, the author doesn't see, and when the country careens over Joe Biden this Fall, the Democrats will once again say it didn't show up in their polling so must have been another Russian invasion, another failing of the Post Office, another evil manipulation of the states by Trump, another freak variation of the electoral by the under-educated and under-informed, and then Joe can write us another book about it, what really happened, as he slides off into historical irrelevancy.

I watched the movie "the hunt" last night laughed my ass off at the stereotypical they portrayed the characters.

That the one where some rich guys kidnap a homeless bum to hunt down, only he outsmarts all of them and 'wins'? lol I lasted about 3 minutes and gave up trying to watch it. The stereotypes were indeed silly; the idiotic Democrats' base probably thought it was a documentary.

 

[Muhammed]

You're dreaming. Independents vote according to the economy. And since they don't know jack shit about politics, the incumbent gets the blame.

It's going to be a close race.

I don't think it's the economy this time, though it doesn't help Trump like it would have without the pandemic.

It's more his handling of the pandemic. Polls have consistently shown that ~60% of Americans disapprove of his handling of it.

The problem with that stupid theory is that all people who are not TDS afflicted morons know that Trump has handled the pandemic excellently.

And they see it with their own eyes. They see totally unexpected good things that are unprecedented in their lifetimes such as drive thru testing and economic stimulus. Sure, they've heard of economic stimulus before. But they've never seen one that makes $1200 magically appear in their bank accounts or mailboxes.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Here's another interesting factoid - in the six swing states, AZ MI WI PA NC and FL, the percentage of non-college educated whites has declined by 2% as a share of the population since 2016. Trump won because he won PA WI and MI. The combined total he won by in those three states was 77,000. If you overlay the demographics on 2020 onto the 2016 electoral map, and assume that the share total by demographic cohorts remain constant, Hillary would have won the election.

Of course Trump won, and that's all that matters. But the point is that the demographics are working against him.

Agree. If Don loses those three states this time, he likely loses the election. It does appear he will lose those three states, but never underestimate the stupidity and dishonesty of the D Party. They are their own worst enemy.

I cannot understand your complacency in this election no politician is perfect but I've yet to see a democrat that wasn't going after your rights and wasn't trying to force people to comply with their tyrannical demands

 

[bigrebnc1775]

“Blame the election of 2016. Virtually everyone but the most die-hard Trump backers that year felt he would lose. Few forecasters thought it was possible for a candidate to lose the national popular vote by over 2 percentage points (nearly 3 million votes) and still win enough states to reach 270 electoral votes.
[…]
And where were the polls off in 2016? In those very states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Postelection studies revealed that, nationally, there was a slight over-sampling of whites with college degrees and a slight under-sampling of whites with less than four-year degrees. Since then, most pollsters have begun to correct for that, weighting white voters by level of educational attainment. Just this week, Pew Research released a report to guide state-level pollsters how to weight samples to correct for education.”

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/many-are-afraid-say-it-not-close-race

Democrats in particular are afraid to say it – and understandably so; they would be wise to consider it a very close race.

It shouldn’t be a close, if the we weren’t a failed state. Trump is easily beaten, but for the stupidity of the D Party. A party that proclaims it’s progressive, for the people particularly minorities, and against big money interests picks an old white racist corrupt conservative suffering with dementia.

Oh well the billionaires are happy, and after all that’s what our federal government is all about.

Biden is not nor has he ever been a conservative

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Here's another interesting factoid - in the six swing states, AZ MI WI PA NC and FL, the percentage of non-college educated whites has declined by 2% as a share of the population since 2016. Trump won because he won PA WI and MI. The combined total he won by in those three states was 77,000. If you overlay the demographics on 2020 onto the 2016 electoral map, and assume that the share total by demographic cohorts remain constant, Hillary would have won the election.

Of course Trump won, and that's all that matters. But the point is that the demographics are working against him.

North Carolina is not a swing state sorry to bust your theory, so if North Carolina is not a swing state how much more wrong is in your thought process?

 

[Turtlesoup]

This Presidential Election will be like 1980 or 1984 in my opinion.

Reps keep the WH and Senate, Dems the House.

Think the house is in play--------if the dems can't cheat as much as they normally do-----they could lose a bunch of house seats as well.


Think Pelosi is focused on making the election invalid-----and isn't going to be able to control individual precincts as well.

 

[gipper]

“Blame the election of 2016. Virtually everyone but the most die-hard Trump backers that year felt he would lose. Few forecasters thought it was possible for a candidate to lose the national popular vote by over 2 percentage points (nearly 3 million votes) and still win enough states to reach 270 electoral votes.
[…]
And where were the polls off in 2016? In those very states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Postelection studies revealed that, nationally, there was a slight over-sampling of whites with college degrees and a slight under-sampling of whites with less than four-year degrees. Since then, most pollsters have begun to correct for that, weighting white voters by level of educational attainment. Just this week, Pew Research released a report to guide state-level pollsters how to weight samples to correct for education.”

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/many-are-afraid-say-it-not-close-race

Democrats in particular are afraid to say it – and understandably so; they would be wise to consider it a very close race.

It shouldn’t be a close, if the we weren’t a failed state. Trump is easily beaten, but for the stupidity of the D Party. A party that proclaims it’s progressive, for the people particularly minorities, and against big money interests picks an old white racist corrupt conservative suffering with dementia.

Oh well the billionaires are happy, and after all that’s what our federal government is all about.

Biden is not nor has he ever been a conservative

Yeah that’s something cons can’t comprehend, even though his 45 year track record easily proves it. The power of right wing propaganda to dupe cons shouldn’t be discounted.

 

[gipper]

Here's another interesting factoid - in the six swing states, AZ MI WI PA NC and FL, the percentage of non-college educated whites has declined by 2% as a share of the population since 2016. Trump won because he won PA WI and MI. The combined total he won by in those three states was 77,000. If you overlay the demographics on 2020 onto the 2016 electoral map, and assume that the share total by demographic cohorts remain constant, Hillary would have won the election.

Of course Trump won, and that's all that matters. But the point is that the demographics are working against him.

Agree. If Don loses those three states this time, he likely loses the election. It does appear he will lose those three states, but never underestimate the stupidity and dishonesty of the D Party. They are their own worst enemy.

I cannot understand your complacency in this election no politician is perfect but I've yet to see a democrat that wasn't going after your rights and wasn't trying to force people to comply with their tyrannical demands

I doubt you could understand anything from someone who isn’t a conservative.

 

[Oldestyle]

You're dreaming. Independents vote according to the economy. And since they don't know jack shit about politics, the incumbent gets the blame.

It's going to be a close race.

I don't think it's the economy this time, though it doesn't help Trump like it would have without the pandemic.

It's more his handling of the pandemic. Polls have consistently shown that ~60% of Americans disapprove of his handling of it. His support amongst seniors - who supported him in 2016 - has fallen sharply because he's downplayed the virus. Most of the deaths have been over 65, and many seniors view Trump as being indifferent to the risks they face.

But in the end, it's a referendum on Trump. He's getting hammered in the suburbs, just like the Republicans were hammered in the suburbs in 2018. That's why the GOP was invoking rioters coming to the suburbs at their convention. He's also losing college-educated whites badly, a cohort the Republicans have won every election since polling began in the 1950s. There simply aren't enough uneducated rural white voters for Trump to win. He has to start expanding his base.

Or wait for the Democrats to do something incredibly stupid, which is highly plausible. The Democrats have a remarkable ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

You mean like nominating Joe Biden...a senile old white guy who's been unsuccessfully running for President since Richard Nixon was in office? That kind of "incredibly stupid"?

 

[bigrebnc1775]

“Blame the election of 2016. Virtually everyone but the most die-hard Trump backers that year felt he would lose. Few forecasters thought it was possible for a candidate to lose the national popular vote by over 2 percentage points (nearly 3 million votes) and still win enough states to reach 270 electoral votes.
[…]
And where were the polls off in 2016? In those very states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Postelection studies revealed that, nationally, there was a slight over-sampling of whites with college degrees and a slight under-sampling of whites with less than four-year degrees. Since then, most pollsters have begun to correct for that, weighting white voters by level of educational attainment. Just this week, Pew Research released a report to guide state-level pollsters how to weight samples to correct for education.”

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/many-are-afraid-say-it-not-close-race

Democrats in particular are afraid to say it – and understandably so; they would be wise to consider it a very close race.

It shouldn’t be a close, if the we weren’t a failed state. Trump is easily beaten, but for the stupidity of the D Party. A party that proclaims it’s progressive, for the people particularly minorities, and against big money interests picks an old white racist corrupt conservative suffering with dementia.

Oh well the billionaires are happy, and after all that’s what our federal government is all about.

Biden is not nor has he ever been a conservative

Yeah that’s something cons can’t comprehend, even though his 45 year track record easily proves it. The power of right wing propaganda to dupe cons shouldn’t be discounted.

Yes I comprehend you keep saying that but show no proof of it really being truthful

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Here's another interesting factoid - in the six swing states, AZ MI WI PA NC and FL, the percentage of non-college educated whites has declined by 2% as a share of the population since 2016. Trump won because he won PA WI and MI. The combined total he won by in those three states was 77,000. If you overlay the demographics on 2020 onto the 2016 electoral map, and assume that the share total by demographic cohorts remain constant, Hillary would have won the election.

Of course Trump won, and that's all that matters. But the point is that the demographics are working against him.

Agree. If Don loses those three states this time, he likely loses the election. It does appear he will lose those three states, but never underestimate the stupidity and dishonesty of the D Party. They are their own worst enemy.

I cannot understand your complacency in this election no politician is perfect but I've yet to see a democrat that wasn't going after your rights and wasn't trying to force people to comply with their tyrannical demands

I doubt you could understand anything from someone who isn’t a conservative.

So you aren't conservative but you know what a conservative is? lol

 

[gipper]

Here's another interesting factoid - in the six swing states, AZ MI WI PA NC and FL, the percentage of non-college educated whites has declined by 2% as a share of the population since 2016. Trump won because he won PA WI and MI. The combined total he won by in those three states was 77,000. If you overlay the demographics on 2020 onto the 2016 electoral map, and assume that the share total by demographic cohorts remain constant, Hillary would have won the election.

Of course Trump won, and that's all that matters. But the point is that the demographics are working against him.

Agree. If Don loses those three states this time, he likely loses the election. It does appear he will lose those three states, but never underestimate the stupidity and dishonesty of the D Party. They are their own worst enemy.

I cannot understand your complacency in this election no politician is perfect but I've yet to see a democrat that wasn't going after your rights and wasn't trying to force people to comply with their tyrannical demands

I doubt you could understand anything from someone who isn’t a conservative.

So you aren't conservative but you know what a conservative is? lol

Oh I once was a conservative, which I’m terribly ashamed to admit. Unlike you, I educated myself and quickly realized it’s all bogus bull shit.

Libs and cons are just uninformed fools, easily duped by the establishment.

 

[gipper]

“Blame the election of 2016. Virtually everyone but the most die-hard Trump backers that year felt he would lose. Few forecasters thought it was possible for a candidate to lose the national popular vote by over 2 percentage points (nearly 3 million votes) and still win enough states to reach 270 electoral votes.
[…]
And where were the polls off in 2016? In those very states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Postelection studies revealed that, nationally, there was a slight over-sampling of whites with college degrees and a slight under-sampling of whites with less than four-year degrees. Since then, most pollsters have begun to correct for that, weighting white voters by level of educational attainment. Just this week, Pew Research released a report to guide state-level pollsters how to weight samples to correct for education.”

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/many-are-afraid-say-it-not-close-race

Democrats in particular are afraid to say it – and understandably so; they would be wise to consider it a very close race.

It shouldn’t be a close, if the we weren’t a failed state. Trump is easily beaten, but for the stupidity of the D Party. A party that proclaims it’s progressive, for the people particularly minorities, and against big money interests picks an old white racist corrupt conservative suffering with dementia.

Oh well the billionaires are happy, and after all that’s what our federal government is all about.

Biden is not nor has he ever been a conservative

Yeah that’s something cons can’t comprehend, even though his 45 year track record easily proves it. The power of right wing propaganda to dupe cons shouldn’t be discounted.

Yes I comprehend you keep saying that but show no proof of it really being truthful

Stop being a chump for the establishment. Spend five minutes researching Sniffy Joe’s voting record. It’s not hard.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Here's another interesting factoid - in the six swing states, AZ MI WI PA NC and FL, the percentage of non-college educated whites has declined by 2% as a share of the population since 2016. Trump won because he won PA WI and MI. The combined total he won by in those three states was 77,000. If you overlay the demographics on 2020 onto the 2016 electoral map, and assume that the share total by demographic cohorts remain constant, Hillary would have won the election.

Of course Trump won, and that's all that matters. But the point is that the demographics are working against him.

Agree. If Don loses those three states this time, he likely loses the election. It does appear he will lose those three states, but never underestimate the stupidity and dishonesty of the D Party. They are their own worst enemy.

I cannot understand your complacency in this election no politician is perfect but I've yet to see a democrat that wasn't going after your rights and wasn't trying to force people to comply with their tyrannical demands

I doubt you could understand anything from someone who isn’t a conservative.

So you aren't conservative but you know what a conservative is? lol

Oh I once was a conservative, which I’m terribly ashamed to admit. Unlike you, I educated myself and quickly realized it’s all bogus bull shit.

Libs and cons are just uninformed fools, easily duped by the establishment.

yet you seem complacent to sit back and bitch about both knowing both will have an effect on your livelihood
lol now that's what I call uninformed and foolish.
oh wait it makes you feel morally adequate

 

[bigrebnc1775]

“Blame the election of 2016. Virtually everyone but the most die-hard Trump backers that year felt he would lose. Few forecasters thought it was possible for a candidate to lose the national popular vote by over 2 percentage points (nearly 3 million votes) and still win enough states to reach 270 electoral votes.
[…]
And where were the polls off in 2016? In those very states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Postelection studies revealed that, nationally, there was a slight over-sampling of whites with college degrees and a slight under-sampling of whites with less than four-year degrees. Since then, most pollsters have begun to correct for that, weighting white voters by level of educational attainment. Just this week, Pew Research released a report to guide state-level pollsters how to weight samples to correct for education.”

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/many-are-afraid-say-it-not-close-race

Democrats in particular are afraid to say it – and understandably so; they would be wise to consider it a very close race.

It shouldn’t be a close, if the we weren’t a failed state. Trump is easily beaten, but for the stupidity of the D Party. A party that proclaims it’s progressive, for the people particularly minorities, and against big money interests picks an old white racist corrupt conservative suffering with dementia.

Oh well the billionaires are happy, and after all that’s what our federal government is all about.

Biden is not nor has he ever been a conservative

Yeah that’s something cons can’t comprehend, even though his 45 year track record easily proves it. The power of right wing propaganda to dupe cons shouldn’t be discounted.

Yes I comprehend you keep saying that but show no proof of it really being truthful

Stop being a chump for the establishment. Spend five minutes researching Sniffy Joe’s voting record. It’s not hard.

I don't have to research Joe's record I lived my life through his political history

 

[Toro]

The problem with that stupid theory is that all people who are not TDS afflicted morons know that Trump has handled the pandemic excellently.

And they see it with their own eyes. They see totally unexpected good things that are unprecedented in their lifetimes such as drive thru testing and economic stimulus. Sure, they've heard of economic stimulus before. But they've never seen one that makes $1200 magically appear in their bank accounts or mailboxes.

If 60% of the country believe otherwise and are thus "TDS morons," then Trump will get crushed.

He can't win with 40% of the vote.