July, 1914?

[Annie]

Hope next month won't remind us of that August in 1914...

http://www.nysun.com/article/35990

War on Iran Has Begun

BY DAVID TWERSKY
July 13, 2006
URL: http://www.nysun.com/article/35990

TEL AVIV, Israel — The war with Iran has begun.

Just last Friday, Iranian President Ahmadinejad warned that Israel's return to Gaza could lead to an "explosion" in the Islamic world that would target Israel and its supporters in the West. "They should not let things reach a point where an explosion occurs in the Islamic world," he said.

"If an explosion occurs, then it won't be limited to geographical boundaries. It will also burn all those who created [Israel] over the past 60 years," he said, implicitly referring to America and other Western nations who support Israel.

Years from now, the kidnapping of Corporal Gilad Shalit will be regarded like the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand. Against the backdrop of Kassam rocket fire on Israelis living within range of the Gaza Strip, it was the fate of Corporal Shalit that triggered the Israeli return to Gaza, which in turn brought the Hezbollah forces into the game.

Israel is fighting two Iranian proxies on two fronts. It may, or may not, open a third front against a third Iranian proxy, Syria. It is from the Syrian capital that Khaled Meshaal, the exiled leader of Hamas, has been laying down Palestinian Arab negotiating conditions. Why listen to Mr. Meshaal? Because the Hamas troops are loyal to him, rather than to their erstwhile leader, Prime Minister Ismail Haniyah, let alone the increasingly (as if that were possible) hapless Palestinian Arab leader, Mahmoud Abbas.

As one senior Palestinian Arab close to Mr. Abbas told me Mr. Meshaal believes that any resolution of this crisis, and of the wider crisis brought on by the surprising Hamas election win last January and the ensuing isolation of the Palestinian Authority from its European and American funding sources, must await the outcome of the discussions between Iran and the West over its nuclear enrichment program.

Perhaps a grand bargain is in the works, in which Tehran will forgo its nuclear weapons ambitions in exchange for Washington's recognition of its emergence as the new regional power. Every day, Iran grows more powerful; any deal should reflect Iran's growing importance. For example: forcing Israel to bargain for prisoner swaps, cutting the Israeli military advantage down to size, and scuttling both the possibility of unilateral disengagement in the West Bank (the preferred Israeli option) and renewed negotiations with weakened Palestinian Arab moderates (the option preferred by the Europeans).

Even more loyal to Tehran is the Hezbollah leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, whose forces yesterday kidnapped two more Israeli soldiers, opening up the second front. Sheik Nasrallah is warning Israelis that they must not think Lebanon is unprotected as it was in 1981 and 1982 when Israeli forces came pouring across the border to silence Palestinian Arab guns. Sheik Nasrallah's men are the recipients of tens of thousands of rockets — longer range and presumably more deadly than their roughly engineered younger Kassam cousins — that put central Israel in their range.

Each one of these players — Hamas inside Gaza and in Damascus, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Assad dictatorship in Syria — are chess pieces on the Iranian board. The pawn moves, drawing in the Israeli bishop; the Lebanese rook challenges; the Syrian queen is in reserve.

Just listen: A few weeks ago, the Swedish government announced that it would label Golan Heights wine as a product from "Israeli Occupied Syria."

The Swedes were oblivious to the little dance played out around a request by the United Nations that Syria demarcate its view of the 1967 border. Turtle Bay was aiming to push Syria to claim the Sheeba farms, a small tract held by Israel and claimed by Hezbollah for Lebanon. The United Nations recognizes Sheeba Farms as belonging to Syria; should Israel and Syria ever negotiate a peace treaty, it is clear the Security Council would expect Sheeba Farms to be returned to Syrian control.

The United Nations wanted Syria to assert its claim, in order to deny Hezbollah its basic raison d'etre — "liberating" all Lebanese soil from "the Israeli occupation forces."

Passed in 2004, Security Council resolution 1559 requires the dismantling of all Lebanese militias and their replacement by a Lebanese state army. Thus far, this has been as successful as the requirement by the Quartet (America, the European Union, Russia, and the United Nations) that all independent Palestinian Arab terrorist groups and militias be disarmed.

Guess what? The Syrians refused. Just turned the United Nations down flat. Apparently Sweden is more passionate about asserting Syrian territorial rights than Syria itself.

The reason is simple: Iran does not want to deny Hezbollah the justification for maintaining its armed presence in southern Lebanon, along northern Israel, and Syria does Iran's bidding.

Ephraim Sneh, a former general and Labor Party leader who is the Israeli longest drawing attention to the approaching conflict with Iran, is saying that the current moment reminds him of the Spanish Civil War. The broader global forces are aligned; local actors are committed. It is a bloody test, a macabre dress rehearsal, for what lies over the horizon.

The war with Iran has begun

 

[ekrem]

No one besides USA will tolerate Israeli action against Syria.

Hamas,Hizbullah are all only tools. Not important, bomb it to death. Lebanon in suffering between all fronts is very tragic and sad what happens to them. They are in the middle of this and have no power on influence on what is going on.

Syria is other. If Israel really makes any action on Syria, then it may eventually take a shape highly different than what had been envisaged by Israel, which will directly influence USA in the middle East.

 

[Annie]

No one besides USA will tolerate Israeli action against Syria.

Hamas,Hizbullah are all only tools. Not important, bomb it to death. Lebanon in suffering between all fronts is very tragic and sad what happens to them. They are in the middle of this and have no power on influence on what is going on.

Syria is other. If Israel really makes any action on Syria, then it may eventually take a shape highly different than what had been envisaged by Israel, which will directly influence USA in the middle East.

Then again, the mullahs and their proxies might well be surprised at what they have wrought.

 

[Mr. P]

Nuke em till they glow. Done.

 

[dilloduck]

Nuke em till they glow. Done.

May have to---there's a lot of image protecting that has to be done---I'm curious if Israel tipped off the US on the retaliation?

 

[ekrem]

Then again, the mullahs and their proxies might well be surprised at what they have wrought.

Maybe i don't know. But think of this, that Syria is a country which has for some states strategic importance.

Russia: Which released 3/4 of Syria's debt to Russia for free and Russia equipping Syria with modern MIssile-Tech.
---> Russian bear makes Israel jittery
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/GA28Ag02.html
And Russia's plans for deployment of Russian Black-Sea NAvy to Syria.

And world economy: Think of raising Oil-prices. Even Timbuktu or Cacao-Islands will complain. Think of China and its oil dependency.


So for me Israelattacking Syria is illusion.
Who is going to pay for reconstruction of Lebanon ?

 

[dilloduck]

Maybe i don't know. But think of this, that Syria is a country which has for some states strategic importance.

Russia: Which released 3/4 of Syria's debt to Russia for free and Russia equipping Syria with modern MIssile-Tech.
---> Russian bear makes Israel jittery
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/GA28Ag02.html
And Russia's plans for deployment of Russian Black-Sea NAvy to Syria.

And world economy: Think of raising Oil-prices. Even Timbuktu or Cacao-Islands will complain. Think of China and its oil dependency.


So for me Israelattacking Syria is illusion.
Who is going to pay for reconstruction of Lebanon ?

The US---we pay for everything.

 

[Annie]

Maybe i don't know. But think of this, that Syria is a country which has for some states strategic importance.

Russia: Which released 3/4 of Syria's debt to Russia for free and Russia equipping Syria with modern MIssile-Tech.
---> Russian bear makes Israel jittery
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/GA28Ag02.html
And Russia's plans for deployment of Russian Black-Sea NAvy to Syria.

And world economy: Think of raising Oil-prices. Even Timbuktu or Cacao-Islands will complain. Think of China and its oil dependency.


So for me Israelattacking Syria is illusion.
Who is going to pay for reconstruction of Lebanon ?

I would nominate Iran to pay for reconstruction. As for the rest, Israel has two choice , survival or destruction. I think I know which they'll pick. It's easy to be brave when there is only one viable choice.

 

[dilloduck]

I would nominate Iran to pay for reconstruction. As for the rest, Israel has two choice , survival or destruction. I think I know which they'll pick. It's easy to be brave when there is only one viable choice.

Good choice, however if this escalates much further the won't be anything left to reconstruct.

 

[JeffWartman]

I would nominate Iran to pay for reconstruction. As for the rest, Israel has two choice , survival or destruction. I think I know which they'll pick. It's easy to be brave when there is only one viable choice.

The only problem with that is that Israel will choose survival by using American means. We have completely built the Israeli army...when those American weapons are used in a war against anyone in the middle east, you can bet we'll see more violence directed toward the U.S. then ever before.

 

[dilloduck]

The only problem with that is that Israel will choose survival by using American means. We have completely built the Israeli army...when those American weapons are used in a war against anyone in the middle east, you can bet we'll see more violence directed toward the U.S. then ever before.

It's unfortunate that thier religion forces them to maintain a presence in a country in the middle of enemies.

 

[Zebra]

Good choice, however if this escalates much further the won't be anything left to reconstruct.

as today now